A few months back, Saudi Aramco commissioned a story about the first wells in the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest. With the title "Ghawar's Magnificent Five", it was published first on the Saudi Aramco website but has subsequently appeared elsewhere. Saudi Aramco later published the same article along with the companion piece "Still Going Strong" (subtitled "57-year-old super-giant Ghawar oil field productive as ever") in the Fall 2008 issue of SA Dimensions magazine, also available on their website¹. "Magnificent Five" is the newly minted moniker² for the group of discovery wells, one for each of the five major production areas of Ghawar: 'Ain Dar, Shedgum, Uthmaniyah, Hawiyah, and Haradh. These articles are remarkable in that Saudi Aramco rarely reveals production details for specific wells in Ghawar, but something in this myth-building exercise is amiss -- both in the consistency of the numbers provided and their use as indicators for the state of the wells and the overall field. In this article, I will examine the data provided for these wells and cross check with other available information including satellite imagery available within Google Earth. There is definitely more to the story, and this uncut version is actually more interesting than what Saudi Aramco has released to theaters.

¹http://www.saudiaramco.com. Click Newsroom/Publications/Dimensions.

²The wells' new nickname invokes the grandeur of another movie: The Magnificent Seven. It is noteworthy, though, that most of the seven died prematurely.

Saudi Arabia's historical crude oil production indicates a peak of 9.6 million barrels/day in 2005. In 2008, crude production was 9.3 mbd. In 2009 it is forecast to be 8.1 mbd followed by an increase in 2010 to 8.5 mbd. Unfortunately, after 2010 a steady decline is forecast.

The forecast production profile assumes that Saudi Arabia's ultimate recoverable crude oil reserves (URR) are 185 billion barrels (Gb). However, it is possible that Saudi Arabia could have an additional 25 Gb from discovered undeveloped fields and future discoveries. A higher URR of 210 Gb implies that the additional production increment could decrease the total decline rate from about 2015 as shown by the dashed line in the chart below.

The URR estimates in the chart above are made by using secondary data sources. In this time of economic crisis, it would appear appropriate for Saudi Arabia's oil fields to be publicly audited. The full disclosure of total remaining reserves, by field, would enable more effective future oil production and consumption planning in this post peak oil age.

OPEC will be holding its meeting on oil production in Vienna, Austria on October 24.

I have not been able to locate a schedule, but the OPEC Meeting Website indicates that there will be live streaming of some events--press conferences, interviews, and opening events. This is described at this location. It is virtually certain that the meeting itself will not be on the webcast.

The website gives a form for people to submit questions to possibly be asked of senior OPEC officials at press conferences.

I am posting this information in advance, since the meeting starts while those of us in the United States are still sleeping. Some of you in other parts of the world may want to tune in to the webcast.

Below the fold you will find a few quotes I have noticed preceding the conference. It sounds to me like there are several hard-liners who want big cuts and several others who are cautious about making cuts.

Predicting the future of Saudi Arabian oil production is a rather daunting endeavor, given the limited amount of information available upon which to base a prediction. Presented here is an appraisal for Saudi production through 2015 based on an informed analysis of past production data and a simple extrapolation into the future. It is found that the oil production trend from the early 1990s through the present is driven more by the addition of new producing areas than by "peak and decline" in the Hubbertian sense. This trend will likely continue for the next few years leading to a new "peak", although more rapid decline in mature areas of Ghawar will eventually overwhelm both mitigation efforts therein and added production elsewhere.