Stories tagged with "shipping"

UPDATED: Cantarell and Questions Regarding Mexico's Oil Infrastructure

Posted by Sam Foucher on August 21, 2007 - 8:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cantarell, google earth, hurricane dean, kmz, mexico, oil, oil prices, oil rig, peak oil, pipelines, refining, rig, shipping [list all tags]

Scroll down for the 5:00p and 11:50p EDT updates.

Hurricane Dean became a Category 5 storm last night with winds reaching 165 mph and reaching a low pressure of 909 mb (as of 2:15a EDT; Katrina was 920 mb and Camille 909 mb). Landfall occurred early yesterday morning with a second landfall occurring some time today. This is an historic hurricane by any standard.

Why this matters: If there were Cat2 winds in that area, we could have been talking about around 2.5 million barrels per day of Mexico's supply capacity being shut in for a while, and some of that shut in for an extended amount of time. Around 1.5 mbpd of that capacity is exported to the US (of the 20.5 mbpd the US uses, and the 85mbpd the world uses, each day). There are also some questions about the resilience of refineries and flow lines in the area of the second landfall.

Update (Khebab, 11:50 EDT):

HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
...DEAN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING DEAN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...


Cantarell and KMZ oil complex, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.


Refinery position, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.

More under the fold.

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Hurricane Dean Update: Here's What We Know about Mexico's Oil and Gas Infrastructure and Supply

Posted by Prof. Goose on August 19, 2007 - 8:30pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cantarell, hurricane dean, kmz, mexico, oil, oil prices, peak oil, refining, shipping, texas [list all tags]

UPDATE, NEW POST UP TOP AS OF 1:20 AM EDT, 8/21

We know that many of the models have Dean going into the Bay of Campeche. But what does that mean for supply and production?

Well, if the current forecast holds we could be talking about 2.5 million barrels per day of supply capacity being shut in for a while, and some of that for an extended amount of time. Can that matter when the US consumes about 21 million barrels per day (and the world consumes 85 mbpd)? Yes.

Especially when there isn't "slack" supply to be brought to market. That is what "peak oil" is about.

The markets aren't reacting yet. Do they know something we don't know? Maybe.

But what do we actually know about Mexico and its supply and infrastructure?

Under the fold (click "there's more" below), I am going to try to bring together some of our information we have gleaned to this point. I also encourage you to deliver news tips, forecasts, insights, and other links in the comment thread below.

UPDATE: PEMEX is shutting down ~140 rigs and moving 13,000+ workers on land. Cantarell + Ku-Maloob-Zaap account for 66% of the total oil production of PEMEX in June 2007. Cantarell alone is 47%.

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Hurricane Dean Update and Resource Aggregation Post

Posted by Prof. Goose on August 19, 2007 - 10:20am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cantarell, hurricane dean, louisiana, oil, peak oil, refining, shipping, texas, thunder horse [list all tags]

Folks, thanks for your great efforts in this thread. There's a lot of cool stuff down there! Now, if we just knew where Dean was going...so, continue linking to maps (esp. of Cantarell/Jack/Yucatan, but Texas and LA too), oil maps, NG maps, LNG stations, refinery maps, pipeline maps, shipping lanes, rig maps, news stories, weather, track predictions, strategic resources, and all that other stuff in this comment thread. Then I'll go through and start aggregating those for what looks more and more like it will be a very busy week next week. Ideas or assistance are always welcome. (New post on Dean as of 20:50 EDT 8/19 up top.)

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LNG To The Rescue?

Posted by Dave Cohen on November 27, 2006 - 6:27pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: fungibility, liquefaction, lng, lng market, regasification, shipping, us imports [list all tags]

As even a casual reading of the story The North American Red Queen: Our Natural Gas Treadmill indicates, the importance of future Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) imports to North America can hardly be overstated.


Declining U.S. Lower 48 Natural Gas Production
Source: North American Oil & Gas Plays Focus on the Non-Conventional (pdf) from IHS Energy
The decline in output is 2.2 trillion cubic feet (TcF)
off the 2002 baseline
Figure 1 — Click to Enlarge

This story will discuss the emergence of a globalized LNG market and the ability of that market to supply the high volumes of LNG that the United State will need to avoid future shortfalls. Will such a globalized market really come to pass? What form will it take? What does the current LNG market look like? How will the United States become integrated into the expanding LNG trade? These are the questions we shall examine here.

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