The Oil Drum

The developing credit crunch is looking less contained by the day, despite the recent bounce in the equity markets. The interconnectedness of global markets really becomes apparent when contagion threatens to spread.

Following on from the Montebello SPP summit, Naomi Klein brings us an interesting twist on the right of protestors to be heard - surveillance as the new participatory democracy.

More commentators are weighing in on the question of Newfoundland oil royalties, while a pipeline capacity shortage looms in Alberta and potential conflict brews in BC over coal bed methane.

Top 25 Quotes on the Credit Crisis of 'O7

The U.S. economy, once the envy of the world, is now viewed across the globe with suspicion. America has become shackled by an immovable mountain of debt that endangers its prosperity and threatens to bring the rest of the world economy crashing down with it. The ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, a result of irresponsible lending policies designed to generate commissions for unscrupulous brokers, presages far deeper problems in a U.S. economy that is beginning to resemble a giant smoke-and-mirrors Ponzi scheme. And this has not been lost on the rest of the world. - Hamid Varzi, International Tribune

With arctic sovereignty increasingly in dispute due to potential oil and gas discoveries in a warmer world, the various interested parties seem almost desperate to stake their claim (and some are apparently more desperate than others). Meanwhile sovereignty debates continue further south at the Montebello SPP summit.

Danny Williams (one scary poker player), finally suceeds in securing a deal on the Hebron field after calling the oil companies' bluff. They said they had plenty of other opportunities if Newfoundland wouldn't play ball, but in a peak oil world Williams said they'd come back to the table, and they did.

As for the developing credit crunch, risk appears less and less contained over time, as international concern grows over the highy-rated 'assets' derived from the American mortgage market. Even money market funds are beginning to experience a flight to quality.

Russian arctic images 'from Titanic'

Russia faces embarrassment over its flag planting expedition to the North Pole after claims that state broadcasters borrowed scenes from the movie Titanic to "beef-up" footage. Television company Rossiya sent images of mini submarines descending to the ocean floor around the world in its report about the mission.

But a 13-year-old boy from Finland spotted the scenes in the national daily newspaper Ilta-Sanomat, and realised that they resembled images on his Titanic DVD.

He told the newspaper: "I checked it with my DVD and there it was right there in the beginning of the movie: exactly the same image of the submersibles approaching the ship."

Titanic, made by James Cameron and starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet, opens with pictures of divers inspecting the 1912 shipwreck. The news programme is accused of merging real footage with the movie shots under the caption "northern Arctic Ocean", according to the Guardian.

It reported that Rossiya had refused to comment on the footage but said its Vesti news programme had originally been filmed using scale models in a studio.

Nope, That’s Not Money

Prudent Bear’s Doug Noland has for years been pointing out that one of the drivers of the credit bubble has been the ever-broadening definition of money. As the global economy expanded without a hic-up, more and more instruments came to be used as a store of value or medium of exchange or even a standard against which to value other things—in other words, as money.

Thus mortgage-backed bonds and even more exotic things came to be seen as nearly risk-free and infinitely liquid. In Noland’s terms, credit gained “moneyness,” which sent the effective global money supply through the roof. This in turn allowed the U.S. and its trading partners to keep adding jobs and appearing to grow, despite debt levels that were rising into the stratosphere. For a while there, borrowing actually made the world richer, because both the cash received and the debt created functioned as money.

With a few months of hindsight, it’s now clear that debt-as-money was not one of humanity’s better ideas. When the U.S. housing market—the source of all that mortgage-backed pseudo money—began to tank, hedge funds found out that an asset-backed bond wasn’t exactly the same thing as a stack of hundred dollar bills. The global economy then started taking inventory of what it was using as money. And it began crossing things off the list. Subprime ABS? Nope, that’s not money. BBB corporate bonds? Nope. High-grade corporates? Alas, no. Credit default swaps? Are you kidding me?

No longer able to function as money, these instruments are being “repriced” (a slick little euphemism for “dumped for whatever anyone will pay”), which is causing a cascade failure of the many business models that depend on infinite liquidity. The effective global money supply is contracting at a double-digit rate, reversing out much of the past decade’s growth.

North American integration is making the news again on both sides of the border, and on the other side of the Atlantic. Meanwhile, another large Canadian company - Alcan - becomes the subject of a takeover some describe as a symptom of Canadian economic suicide. The natural gas drilling crash affects Baker Hughes, the Chinese feel unwelcome in the Alberta oil patch and concerns are raised over the safety of LNG terminals in Québec.

In the US the subprime credit market problems are beginning to snowball, while the folly of relying on sophisticated risk analysis models based on the 'data' from 'liar's loans' becomes apparent. Wall Street's ability to value assets is called into question, the lawyers begin to get in on the act and the US tries to sell mortgaged-backed securities to China.

How cosy do we want to be with the Americans?

Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be meeting in Montebello, Que., with U.S. President George W. Bush and Mexican President Felipe Calderón on Aug. 20 and 21.

These meetings seem to be kept deliberately low-profile. Do we, as Canadians, really want to continue down the road toward deep integration with the United States with regard to our resources?

In March 2005, Paul Martin, Vicente Fox and Bush met in Waco, Tex., to ratify the Security and Prosperity Partnership of North America (SPP). The SPP takes NAFTA's goal of continental economic integration much further by including security and foreign policy issues, and by speeding up the process of regulatory harmonization integral to the first Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement.

All this has been done quietly, resulting in a lack of public awareness or input. It should also be noted that all three North American governments seem to be moving quickly toward a continental resource pact, a North American security perimeter, and common agricultural and other polices related to our health and environment. To date, the public has been neither informed or consulted.

We should ask our members of parliament their position on these very important meetings, and when public input will be initiated.

This is our country. Let's keep it strong and free.

Elizabeth Eidt, Stratford

Royal Dutch Shell Inherits Explosive BC Conflict

When Royal Dutch Shell's directors took the reins of Shell Canada earlier this month, they inherited a brewing resource conflict in a remote corner of British Columbia that bears a striking resemblance to Royal Dutch's difficulties in other parts of the world.

The setting is a remote alpine basin southeast of Dease Lake, where the shared origin of the Nass, Stikine and Skeena Rivers gives the area its local name: the Sacred Headwaters. A stunning, expansive wilderness, it is the territory of the Tahltan people, who have hunted and trapped there for generations. It also happens to be underlain by one of British Columbia's largest potential coalbed methane deposits, to which Shell Canada -- and now Royal Dutch Shell -- holds drilling rights.

N.S. premier urges revolt against federal budget

The 2005 Atlantic Accord, a deal signed by the then-Liberal government between the governments of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador, protects those two provinces from having their offshore oil and gas royalties clawed back under the federal equalization plan.

However, to accept an enriched equalization deal, they have to abandon the accord.

NAFTA Kicked Up A Notch

The North American Free Trade Agreement is the world's most advanced example of the U.S.-led free trade model. It's not just about economics any more. The expansion of NAFTA into the Security and Prosperity Partnership reveals the road ahead for other nations entering into free trade agreements. It is not a road most nations -- or the U.S. public -- would take if they knew where it led.

The first problem is that very few people know about this next step of "deep integration." In March 2005, Presidents George Bush, Vicente Fox and Prime Minister Paul Martin in Waco, Texas launched the Security and Prosperity Partnership with a splash. Although it had few visible results, the Waco meeting of the "Three Amigos" set into motion an underground process that spawned its own working groups, rules, recommendations, and agreements -- all below the radar of the legislatures and the public in the three nations. These rules and trinational programs have profound effect on the environment, the daily lives of citizens, and the future of all three countries.

The SPP not only further greases the wheels of corporate cooperation and potentially increases U.S. access to Mexican oil. Its security component represents a new and ominous form of integration, all in the name of counter-terrorism.

Why food costs more

Since the rise in agriculture started gaining altitude last spring, hedge funds have been pouring money into commodity exchanges, driving up prices and transforming backwater grain bourses like the Kansas City Board of Trade and the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange into highstakes casinos. Since 2005, corn has nearly doubled. Wheat is up 50% in the same period, while canola, one of the biggest crops on the Canadian prairie, has climbed 34%.

But the biggest effect of all the new hedge fund cash sloshing through the system is a major increase in volatility. Prices are on the rise but the upward trend has been anything but smooth.

"We are unaccustomed to this," said Mr. Gary, who adds that he hasn't seen this level of volatility since the 1970s when a group of big speculators briefly "muscled the markets around." But what's happening now is different, far more treacherous for traditional players.

Like many experts, Mr. Gary believes the markets have become disconnected from the fundamentals as prices rocket through peaks and valleys that have little to do with supply and demand.

Many of the hedge funds are trend players, who make bets based on the technical details around the direction they think prices are heading, moving in and out of the market with lightening speed. For them, volatility is an opportunity to make money.

Gordon Laxer, Professor of political economy at the University of Alberta and Director of the Parklands Institute, created a political storm with his testimony before the International Trade Committee on Thursday. He was conducting a presentation on the energy and climate change implications of the Security and Prosperity Partnership (SPP), an agreement on greater integration between Canada, the US and Mexico. Professor Laxer pointed out that the deal, which refers to North American "energy security" as a priority, commits Canada to maintaining energy exports to the US, in the absence of a national plan or strategic reserve to protect its own security of supply.

Billions at risk from wheat super-blight

An infection is coming, and almost no one has heard about it. This infection isn't going to give you flu, or TB. In fact, it isn't interested in you at all. It is after the wheat plants that feed more people than any other single food source on the planet. And because of cutbacks in international research, we aren't prepared. The famines that were banished by the advent of disease-resistant crops in the Green Revolution of the 1960s could return, Borlaug told New Scientist.

The disease is Ug99, a virulent strain of black stem rust fungus (Puccinia graminis), discovered in Uganda in 1999. Since the Green Revolution, farmers everywhere have grown wheat varieties that resist stem rust, but Ug99 has evolved to take advantage of those varieties, and almost no wheat crops anywhere are resistant to it....

....What's more, Ug99 will find agriculture has changed to its liking in the decades stem rust has been away. "Forty years ago most wheat wasn't irrigated and heavily fertilised," says Borlaug. Now, thanks to the Green Revolution he helped bring about, it is. That means modern wheat fields are a damper, denser thicket of stems, where dew can linger till noon - just right for fungus.

Another worry is that travel has exploded in the past 40 years. There have now been several documented cases of travellers carrying rust spores on their clothing. Some fear Ug99 will hitchhike as much as it flies - and its spread need not be innocent. New Scientist has learned that the US Department of Homeland Security met in March to discuss the possibility that someone could transport Ug99 deliberately.