This guest post by Chris Clugston is a high level summary of a detailed analysis of America’s “predicament” and its inevitable consequences that he also prepared. His complete analysis and associated models, evidence, and references can be found at this link.

On American Sustainability—Anatomy of a Societal Collapse (Summary)

The Real “Inconvenient Truth”

Most Americans believe that we are “exceptional”—both as a society and as a species. We believe that America was ordained through divine providence to be the societal role model for the world. And we believe that through our superior intellect, we can harness and even conquer Nature in our continuous quest to improve the material living standards associated with our ever-increasing population.

The truth is that our pioneering predecessors drifted, quite by accident, upon a veritable treasure trove of natural resources and natural habitats, which they wrested by force from the native inhabitants, and which we have persistently overexploited in order to create and perpetuate our American way of life. The truth is that through our “divine ordination” and “superior intellect”, we have been persistently and systematically eliminating the very resources upon which our way of life and our existence depend.

My next essay(s) will detail why our current crisis is manifesting in credit/finance, but has origins in and implications for energy, ecology and equity. I thought it would be helpful to first frame this situation from an academic perspective, by highlighting a recent Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences paper: "Overcoming Systemic Roadblocks to Sustainability: The Evolutionary Redesign of Worldviews, Institutions, and Technologies", written by a group of colleagues (professors and students) at the Gund Institute for Ecological Economics at the University of Vermont. It is a long paper but covers issues worthy of discussion - most notably an academic framework for averting collapse - a tall task. What say you? (Note: some of the authors may be reading/responding to comments, but it's finals week.)

BigGav recently highlighted a talk by Robert Costanza given in New Zealand (scroll down). Below the fold is the article "Towards a New Sustainable Economy" by Professor Costanza (who happens to be my phd co-advisor). I agree with much of it - science is rapidly answering the questions of 'who we are' and 'what we have' - the crux is how to get from here, to what comes next. I must admit I'm very tired of the talking heads on television discussing everything about our financial crisis with no acknowledgement that ALL global currencies for past generation are functioning as fiat markers for real capital. I would fall on the floor if someone like Bob Costanza or Herman Daly was on CNN or CNBC. But the advertisers might not like it....

This is one of my favorite posts by Nate, from back in 2007. I often think about it when people talk about how a large amount of wood can be used to create cellulosic ethanol for our cars. Nate mentions in this article that we are already using virtually all of the wood growth increment each year for home heating and other uses. Wood is not really a very expandable resource, without the USA becoming like Easter Island in not very long.- Gail

A short fifty years ago, people heated their homes in winter with coal. A hundred years ago and before, people living in cold climates largely stayed warm in winter with firewood. Today, in a country (and planet) with vastly more people, we heat homes in northern climates largely with high quality fossil fuels, specifically natural gas, heating oil, and propane. Trees, a less energy-dense form of stored sunlight than oil and gas, have recovered a good part of their former % of landcover in the US, despite being still used for paper, wood, furniture, pulp and some heat. Below is an analysis of how the US residential sector heats its homes, how large are our forests and how much they grow and how much wood we could use for heat, after fossil fuels decline.

US direct fossil fuel use for heating Click to enlarge.