The Oil Drum

This is a guest post by Gail the Actuary.

We all know the world is finite. The number of atoms is finite, and these atoms combine to form a finite number of molecules. The mix of molecules may change over time, but in total, the number of molecules is also finite.

We also know that growth is central to our way of life. Businesses are expected to grow. Every day new businesses are formed and new products are developed. The world population is also growing, so all this adds up to a huge utilization of resources.

At some point, growth in resource utilization must collide with the fact that the world is finite. We have grown up thinking that the world is so large that limits will never be an issue. But now, we are starting to bump up against limits.

So, what are the earth's limits? Are we reaching them?

I was planning on writing a little more on technology, or rather the lack of development thereof, but thought I would begin by commenting on the Tar Sands issue a little more. I noted that in Robert’s post on the API call where he began the discussion with the note about the rivers around Fort McMurray turning brown due to the tar sands residue. Well one of the wonders of today’s technology is that you can check.

I had posted about this before, but this time thought to use modern technology. If you go to Google Earth and type in “Fort McMurray” it will give you an overview of the town in Alberta, and the mines can be found just to the North of it. Please note that the river running through the town, from the mines, is blue. Now I don’t think that Google spends their time painting in rivers – so I guess it really is (Well it is really clear, but you get my point). As I noted at the time the brown color occurs as the water from the sand/bitumen separator carries the sand to the tailings pond. Because the clean sand is brown when wet the water looks brown, until the sand settles out in the pond. You can see that the sand then dries to a whiter color, and the contained water in the main body of the pond is also blue. (It was also blue when I saw it on my visit). Once the hole dug to remove the oil sand has been filled in, then the cover will be replaced and it will return to normal, except that the rivers and streams won’t have a tarry bottom any longer.

As I saw, when going out to dinner last Saturday night, we are now entering High School Prom Season as this year’s graduates prepare to move on to jobs and college. It is this generation that will see the unfolding energy crisis in all its facets. While in college they will likely see Peak Oil; while working Peak Natural Gas, and, before they retire, Peak Coal. Which means that between those about to retire and these kids lies the brain power that is going to have to solve the reality of finding alternate sources of fuel at World-scale volumes.

Having just dropped back home to change suitcase contents again, after, this time, watching joints being made and unmade (of the tubular variety) for a couple of days, I have been relying on hotel newspapers for news (some hotel internets don't work) and so was reminded that this is National Hurricane Preparedness Week and that the forecast is for up to 16 named storms and 10 hurricanes, down from the 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes last year. However we can still expect some 6 major hurricanes, down from 7 last year, which is a critical number and really not that much different from last year. The major question of where will, unfortunately, not be known for a while, and remember that hurricanes in the Southern GOMEX also can cause severe casualties, and can, less directly, but nevertheless significantly, impact our oil availability.