The Oil Drum

The entire debate when it comes to fossil fuels and climate change is focused on demand, the consumption of fossil fuels and the resultant emissions. This is not the only approach. Here I propose an alternative approach that totally ignores emissions but instead focuses on the extraction of fossil fuels from the ground.

The general consensus view on coal supplies has long been that we have hundreds of years of the stuff left, and that oil and gas depletion are the pressing concerns. However, dissenting voices are emerging. Canadian geologist David Hughes recently claimed that "peak coal looks like it's occurred in the Lower 48 (US states)", and the consensus position on coal is also called into serious question by the Coal: Resources and Future Production report soon to be released by the Energy Watch Group in Germany. I present a summary of its findings here.

[Update 04/04/07]
The final version of the Energy Watch Group report was published today and is available at:
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf

In particular greater detail has been added regarding future US coal production, noting that the US has now switched from being a net exporter to a net importer of steam coal and arguing that total (volumetric) US coal production will peak between 2020 and 2030.

It is also noted that only 15% of coal produced globally is exported, the rest being consumed domestically, with Australia is responsible for almost 40% of global coal exports.

Finally, certain of the figures in the report have been revised, and so these have been revised (and marked as such with endnotes) in the below summary. These revisions do not change the overall trends.

Looking forward it is clear that the business-as-usual energy policy is “not fit for purpose”. The current system is proving itself inadequate when faced with twin challenges of fossil fuel depletion and climate change. The energy markets are likely to respond to future shortages with profiteering, grossly inequitable allocation and globally destabilising financial flows.

A rationing system is required which can both facilitate equitable allocation of the diminishing resource whilst simultaneously reducing the carbon dioxide released.

Formulated by Dr David Fleming and first published in 1996 as Domestic Tradable Quotas (DTQs), Tradable Energy Quotas known as TEQs (pronounced “tex”) are just such a system. TEQs are an electronic rationing system that includes everyone, bringing citizens, industry and Government together in a single scheme with a common purpose. The structure of this scheme is detailed in Fleming’s excellent short book (available at www.teqs.net) detailed below.

Below is an overview of TEQs written for TOD by David Fleming, he will be reading your comments.