Articles tagged with "Timan-Pechora"
Posted by Heading Out on March 4, 2012 - 12:08pm
Tags: alaska, aldous major south, arctic ice, chukchi sea, havis, prirazlomnoye, russian production, shtokman, skurgard, timan-pechora, usgs, yamal [list all tags]
In the past few weeks I have been looking at the potential for sustainability in oil and gas production in Russia, now at a predicted recent peak of 10.36 mbd, when condensate is included. But the question increasingly becomes whether or not Russia can sustain these levels through this decade, as has been assumed by those suggesting there will be no supply problems in the near future.
In order to sustain this level of production against falling volumes from the current major sources in Western Siberia (estimated as 300 kbd in 2010), Russia is (so far) relying on bringing new fields into production in Eastern Siberia and Timan-Pechora, as well as having some increase in condensate as natural gas production continues to increase. However, as a broad generalization, these developing fields are at a size of about 500 mb each, with an anticipated maximum individual production level of around 150 kbd. Prirazlomnoye for example, which is coming on line has 526 million barrels in reserves, and will be producing at 132 kbd.
Since the high flow rates will likely not be sustained for long intervals, and declining production in Western Siberia will continue, Russia will need to continue major programs of development to find further fields to bring on line later in the decade and beyond. In addition, the declining production in other fields (which might increase overall decline in existing production to 5% or more, i.e. above 500 kbd) will add further pressure to sustain current levels, particularly given the criticality of oil and gas income to the Russian Government.
With much of the land already surveyed, the potential for large fields lies mainly offshore, and particularly in the various national continental shelves and the disputed underwater territory between them in the Arctic. This is a region where there are multi-national concerns and involvement, with the USGS having previously estimated that it is home to about one-fifth of the world’s undiscovered yet recoverable oil and natural gas resources, an estimate at the time of 44 billion barrels of oil and 1,670 Tcf of natural gas.
In the review of the BP view of energy supply over the next 20 years, I noted BP anticipated that Europe would be largely self-sufficient in Energy:
we foresee both the Americas and Eurasia - or Europe including Russia and the former Soviet Union - achieving self-sufficiency in energy
Foregoing, as yet, is a review of the FSU states that lie south of Russia. The initial question that this series is seeking to examine at present is how sustainable, or how much potential for growth, lies in Russian oil and gas production.
This progressive review of Russian major oil developments has moved from Baku and the Northern Caucasus, through the Urals-Volga region into Western Siberia, and thence via Eastern Siberia to Sakhalin Island. This has been a steady progression East, and one might suspect that Russia might continue this movement as current major fields start to play out. Unfortunately, that would move exploration and development east across the Bering Sea. In 1868, Tsar Alexander II sold Alaska to the United States for $7.2 million in gold, and much of that resource has now been developed. (And as an aside, the Alaskan pipeline averaged a flow of 624,716 bd in January, enough to keep it out of trouble this winter, we hope).