Energy Bulletin has a pointer to this article in the Motueka Guardian on the Transition Town movement in New Zealand.

Navigating the Future by Transition Town Motueka, New Zealand

... From the oil decline projections outlined above, we see tourism contracting severely and permanently. Although right now tourism is doing okay, the unemployment crisis will soon be a world wide front page topic. We are calling a heads up reality check for all tourist-based businesses here in Motueka and throughout the region. We will see discretionary spending dry up, and a domino effect as we all tighten our belts and spend less. All retail businesses except those supplying basic necessities will be affected.

In this realistic crystal ball, we see little need for new housing tracts, as buyers will be scarce in the Depression we are facing. The whole business of loans will change also. Many baches will become year-round homes. We see more and more families living with grandparents, or even sharing housing with other families. We see no need for new industrial zones, because many businesses will fail, leaving empty commercial property available for new transition enterprises. We do not see a steady 1.3% growth rate at all, but something much more unpredictable, with Australians fleeing from drought, Europeans leaving over populated cities, and especially, suburban Kiwis spreading out from every city and relocating to rural farms. Some areas will depopulate and others get more settled.