Four short references that need to be in the record.

First the BBC notes that the first oil is now, a year late, being loaded onto a tanker from the Baku to Ceyhan oil pipeline. Although this is a marker in the step to a current 300 kbd supply, the first tanker is not getting all its oil from the pipeline

BP, which has a 30.1% stake in the project, said that while all the crude had come from the Caspian Sea, some had been held in its storage tankers.

So although this is the opening of a passage that circumvents Russian oil lines, I would not run around shouting Yipee, yet a while.

Secondly Chris at TOD:UK has posted a great piece on analyzing the Joint Energy Security of Supply document just put out in the UK. He shows that the initially optimistic view at the front of the document is not sustained if one drills down into it, and that my being encouraged by wind turbines and rape seed-laden fields is still not going to get the UK to the 10% sustainable level that is the current target.

In summary I think this report has failed in its objective to provide the market with future supply, demand and price information. The quantitative data presented is so optimistic to be virtually worthless with qualitative caveats that don't adequately describe the risk.

However, as he notes, although, as with most studies of future supplies, international competition for LNG and other supplies, usually ignored, will be a subject of next year's report.

Thirdly it seems that the BBC is joining FOX and CNN in running a movie on the problems of world oil. Unfortunately it is going to be on at 11:20 pm on Tuesday night, when even us jet-lagged travelers may find a little late, but if I can stay awake, I'll give you the idea.

And finally, as was noted in the comments just below by totoneila Aletta is the first tropical storm in our parts this season, although it is in the Eastern Pacific and at the lower end of Mexico.