First a brief note on TS Erin in the GOMEX...forecaster and Friend of TOD Chuck Watson (of Watson Technical Consulting, the Kinetic Analysis Corporation, and the University of Central Florida Department of Statistics) says that TS Erin in the GOMEX probably won't do much other than cause some evacuations ("Shell is already, some others like Apache were thinking about it this morning.") Chuck's early models are showing a 50% chance of 3.2 MMBBL production loss from the GOMEX over the next five days.

Dean may be more of an issue in about 8 days. Several reliable long range models show Dean in the GOMEX as a major storm. The Oil Drum will go in to "Drudge Siren" mode when and if we get real development from Dean and entry into the GOMEX. We'll keep you posted.