The Oil Drum

I haven't reported on inventories in about a month, because there really weren't any developments that merited a report. While crude, distillate, and propane inventory levels have been typical for this time of year, the gasoline situation is worth a note.

It sort of crept up on me, but last week as I reviewed This Week in Petroleum, I was struck by just how fast the U.S. has built gasoline inventories. Currently at 230 million barrels, I could not recall ever seeing gasoline inventories that high. So, I went back and looked, and the last time gasoline inventories stood at this level was in 1994. And in this week's report, we again had an increase in gasoline inventories:

Updated

Gasoline inventories did in fact edge upward, as gasoline imports were very strong. Had that not been the case, gasoline inventories would have definitely come down, as utilization continues to trend down. In fact, just glancing over the data, more gasoline may have been imported this January than in any other January before. As long as that continues, gasoline prices won't gain much traction. But European refiners have to take turnarounds as well, so gasoline imports typically fall off in February and March.

Updated:

Not too much to get excited about. Those reports of some refineries coming down early for turnarounds due to low margins look to be accurate, given the drop in refinery utilization. That would also explain the rise in crude inventories, but typically you start to see gasoline inventories coming down as the refineries come offline. Gasoline production did fall, as one would expect as turnaround season begins. However, gasoline inventories increased on the back of very strong gasoline import numbers.

With all of the traveling, and then trying to catch up after the holidays, I haven't had time to do a proper TWIP. Thanks to Nate for looking after it during my vacation. Anyway, mostly what we saw for the past month were crude draws, and gasoline inventories climbing back up and getting in pretty good shape prior to spring turnaround season. Part of the draw down in crude was tax-related. Many countries, including the U.S., tax crude inventories at year end. So, there is a bit of a balancing act as refiners try to draw down inventories while still maintaining enough on hand to weather any supply disruptions.

This week saw a large gain across the complex, and crude prices are falling as a result.

The details are out on the weekly crude oil statistics. In sum, a larger drop in crude stocks was offset by higher gasoline stocks and lower gasoline demand than expected. Oil sold off initially, rallied to $100.10, and has now settled around $99.25. At $100 oil, isn't it strange that gasoline at the pump is $3.05. Are the refiners working for free? And if so, why would they do that? Details of this weeks TWIP below the fold:

US Crude Stocks -Thanks -Khebab

A bullish TWIP report just out. DOE reported Crude, motor gas and distillate complex down 5.4 million barrels. API had complex down 4.3 million barrels. As the below chart shows, this is quite the drop in oil inventories from this summer. Front month crude (feb) trading up $1.50. Details and breakdown below the fold:

Here is a link to the DOEs This Week In Petroleum. US crude inventories fell 7.6 million barrels. Consensus was for a drop of 1.5 million barrels. Total gasoline inventories rose 3 million barrels, much higher than an 800,000 expected rise. Implied gasoline demand fell .7% relative to the previous week. Crude oil, after trading as low as $89.70 for Feb delivery, rallied $1.50 to close at $91.70. The text, and some graphics from Lehman Brothers research report are below the fold:

Updated: You would think if last week’s large inventory drop was due to fog-induced delays, all of that crude would show up this week. Not so, as another drop in crude inventories was recorded:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 0.7 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 304.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week, but are near the lower end of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories increased during this period. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels, but are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.

Update following the release:

Big surprises all around this week:

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending November 30, 2007

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) dropped by 8.0 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 305.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.0 million barrels last week, and are below the lower end of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending components inventories increased during this period. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels, but are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.5 million barrels last week. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.8 million barrels last week, and are in the upper middle of the average range for this time of year.

2nd Update

Crude was down sharply following today's release. The AP explains:

NEW YORK (AP) — Oil's rise to $100 a barrel, which seemed a done deal as recently as two days ago, was dealt a severe blow Wednesday when the government reported an increase in supplies at the Nymex delivery terminal in Cushing, Okla., which is closely watched by traders as a benchmark of oil inventory tightness.

Overall crude supplies fell during the week ended Nov. 23 by 400,000 barrels, in line with the 500,000 barrel decrease analysts had expected. But that decline was overshadowed by a 600,000 barrel increase in inventories in Cushing, Okla. Cushing inventories are up 13.4 percent in two weeks.

Activity at the Cushing terminal is studied closely by oil traders because it is the physical delivery point for Nymex crude. Falling supplies there are seen as a symptom of a tight market, and those concerns ease when Cushing inventories rise.

At this point, I think the only chance oil has of reaching $100 this year is if OPEC comes out of the meeting next week and really spooks the market. Of course every time I say that, oil runs up $8. But I do expect it to drop into the $80's pretty soon.