The Oil Drum

Nick Rouse kindly provided me with an Excel spreadsheet with a Hubbert linearization of UK oil production (the only thing I added was the yellow line). As you can see, there was a long period when the curve looked linear and yet it would have totally misled you had you simply extrapolated it to the axis. You would have thought there was going to be about 11gb, but now it's headed for 28gb. So, things are more complex, and we must see if we can come up with some principle for dividing the Romanias (where this method seems to have worked with amazing success), from the UKs (where it would have been very misleading) before we can feel any confidence in our extrapolation of the Saudi graph or the world graph. More below the fold.