DISCLAIMER: The author holds no positions in the oil/energy market that may be affected by the content of this post.

My post is mainly an update to Global Oil Supplies as Reported by EIA's International Petroleum Monthly (IPM) for November 2010, based on data which the EIA reported in the past few weeks in their final edition of IPM and in their International Energy Statistics. I will also briefly present updated information regarding OECD and Non OECD oil supplies/consumption.

The recent EIA data shows growth in world supplies and growth in OECD consumption and net imports while Non OECD supplies/demand have temporarily flattened.

Executive Summary

1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
   
   
   
2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.
   
   
   
3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
   
   
   
4. World C&C year on year production changes to October 2007 and November 2007 (Figs 7 and 8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
   
   
   
5. Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 9.0 mbd which is 0.6 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9 and 10).
   
   
   
6. Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak (Fig 12). Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak (Figs 11 and 12). Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.
   
   
   
7. UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak (Fig 14). UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd, adjusted for maintenance, which is just less than its peak in 2006. There is a reasonable likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak (Figs 13 and 14).
   
   
   
8. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due mainly to new OPEC projects (Fig 15). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to almost double by 2012 (Fig 16). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 17).

Today, I wanted to bring to your attention the human cost of Cyclone Gonu on Oman. The area has been getting very little coverage, but from what I can tell, this was quite a tragedy. As newsbriefsOman is reporting:

49 people have been reported killed in the aftermath of Cyclone Gonu and 27 people are still missing, according to Oman News Agency. The Ministry of Information website cannot be reached at the time of writing. I have seen no published estimates of the cost of damage, but it is likely to be huge.

There are three sites that I can find that have any information about what you can do to help these people and/or raise awareness (and even those (that I can find as of today) do not have links to legitimate and/or accessible charities or philanthropy that anyone outside of the area can donate to--anyone have any ideas on this?):

* http://sleeplessinmuscat.blogspot.com/
* http://gonu.blogspot.com/ (created by the founder of Sleepless in Muscat--but there's nowhere in here to send help)
* http://www.newsbriefsoman.info/ (this one seems to be a news aggregator that existed prior to the storm from someone in Britain)

Please feel free to list other sites, ideas, news and information in the comment thread below.

These people, especially those we of in Oman, look to have suffered greatly from this storm. (We are also hearing that people living on the southern coast of Iran are also in bad shape, but I can't find a site, etc., or much news on them either).

There is nothing wrong with visiting these sites and giving them comfort and leaving them a "Salaam 'alaikum" (which means "peace be unto you"). If you are so inclined, we can certainly at least raise awareness and try to get these people some help.

New thread for Cyclone Gonu as of noon EDT, 6/7 can be found here...please put new material in the comment thread there.

Exclusive--Please credit The Oil Drum and Chuck Watson of KAC/UCF. KAC/UCF and Chuck Watson are forecasting, based on their damage models, that the Qalhat (Sur) LNG terminal will be out for 20-30 days and the Mina al Fahal oil terminal will be down for 10-20 days--all of this assuming they are built to US standards. (NB: These damage estimates have decreased a bit since the last model run...and assume US construction standards.)

All tips and resources (*and there are already many down there in earlier threads, let's replicate that here today in the third thread! Thank you!*) welcome in the comment thread below. If you have any insights, please email the editors box with the word GONU in the subject.

Last updated at 10pm EDT, 6/6. This still could be an important event--but we are in a slow news time right now regarding Oman and the area. If you have any insights, please let us know--email us or put them in the comment thread. We're digging on this too...

Here are links to our first Cyclone Gonu Thread (6/4) and our second thread on the same topic (6/5).

Please put all new resources and insights here as of 1am EDT 6/6, but make sure to check out the first two threads as well.

Why might Cyclone Gonu matter? Well, that answer begins with the fact that the world production of petroleum plateauing around 85 mbbl/day, so any slight blip in supply or exporting could be quite noticeable on the world markets--as a sizeable portion of the world's petroleum exports go through the Gulf of Oman.

Particularly, Oman also matters in this because it produces 743,000 bbl/day; Oman is also a net exporter, non-OPEC, whose production peaked earlier in the decade.

Of course, this storm also has the potential to affect petroleum exports from Iran and the UAE for that matter--mainly because of shipping disruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, but there could also be some real effects on infrastructure and assets depending on storm surge, track and landfall. There are also refining and other production assets in Southern Iran that could be affected depending on the strength of Gonu.

Also, click "there's more" below for more graphics, forecasts, and links, and there's much more from our readers in the comment thread as well...