Stories tagged with "world oil production"

IEA Economist Warns about World Oil Supply

Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 3, 2009 - 9:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: fatih birol, iea, original, peak oil, world oil production, world oil supplies [list all tags]

The UK newspaper the Independent today is featuring an article titled Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast. The article is based on an interview with Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

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Has OECD oil consumption peaked?

Posted by Rune Likvern on April 14, 2009 - 9:47am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: bric, china, oecd, oecd europe, oil consumption, oil stocks, original, world oil production [list all tags]



The above diagram shows that the pattern of growth in oil consumption has varied greatly for different groupings of countries. Oil consumption in China and India has continued to grow, whether or not oil prices rose greatly. Oil consumption also continued to grow in the "Others" category, which includes many of the oil producing nations. Oil consumption in the Former Soviet Union also followed a pattern somewhat independent of world oil prices. It was only the OECD whose consumption changed significantly as world oil prices changed.

Based on this comparison, it seems to me that OECD consumption is far more affected by oil price changes than the consumption of other countries. Based on data shown in this post, it seems to me that OECD economies can only absorb a price increase of US$10 per barrel in a year, without experiencing slowdowns in their economies and a reduction in oil consumption. Non-OECD economies (including BRIC countries) are more resilient, and are more likely to continue to show growing consumption.

Below the fold, I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold.

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Oil Shocks, A Pessimistic View

Posted by Dave Cohen on December 9, 2005 - 7:59pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: china, kurds, oil shock, russia, venezuela, world oil production [list all tags]

OK, that's enough. After reading this happy CERA drivel (hat tip, Leanan)
CERA estimated that oil production capacity -- including crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, oil sands, gas-to-liquids - could rise to 108 million barrels per day in 2015, up from 87 million barrels per day currently.
it seemed apparent that fantasy was the order of the day. So, given the legacy of the 20th century (the Armenian genocide, World War I, the 1929 stock crash, the Great Depression, Mao Tse Tung's "Great Cultural Revolution", Stalin's purges, Romania's Ceausescu, World War II & the Holocaust, the Korean War, the Cold War, the Vietnam War, Russia's war in Afghanistan, Imelda Marcos' shoes collection, the Rwandan genocide, the Balkans fiasco and Bosnian genocide, etc.) and a conviction that humankind has gotten no wiser in the 21st century, a more pessimistic fantasy regarding oil depletion and supply shocks seemed to be called for. So, here we go.
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