The Oil Drum

The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The May 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.15 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The April 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.65 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The March 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

A summary, latest graphics and an explanatory note regarding a few errors I made last time and the data used below the fold.

The February 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group. My observations are the following:

• The type III group (~56 countries) seems to have peaked around 1999 at 40 mbpd with an URR around 1.0Tb and a cumulative production of 600 Gb in 2005.
• The decline rate in the group III is currently around 1% per year but will accelerate with time and possibility reach 2% after 2010
• When a high case scenario for the production derived from the Canadian Tar Sands is included, the decline rate will be reduced around 0.5% per year until 2010.
• In order to satisfy a relatively moderate demand growth at 1.5%/year, the supply coming from the type II group should be around 3.5-4.0%/year and reach a production level of 56-59 mbpd in 2010 (from 40 mbpd in 2005).
• The total production from Russia and Saudi Arabia that are leading the type II group, is almost flat since mid-2004 despite record oil prices.

Production from the type II group added to the logistic curve modeling the production coming from the type III group. The dots represents the actual values for the world production of crude oil + NGL.

Cautionary note: In this story, I'm talking strictly about production of Crude Oil plus Condensate and NGPL (CO+NGL in short).