Stories in topic "Demand/Consumption"
What "Lower Consumption" Means
Posted by Nate Hagens on November 5, 2009 - 10:06am in The Oil Drum: Campfire
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: consumption [list all tags]
Note from the author (Dan Allen): As a high-school teacher, I wanted to give my thoroughly-industrial, suburban-NJ students a more detailed peek at their upcoming post-industrial future. I felt the need to challenge their prevailing mindsets regarding our resource-depletion predicament: the “shorter showers & change the light-bulbs” crowd, the “engineers will surely come to our rescue” folks, and the “problem? -- what problem?” people. This essay and the before/after comparison chart that follows are part of my ongoing (unsanctioned) attempts at doing so.
Fuel Economy Factors - Part 1: The Role of Aerodynamic "Drag"
Posted by Nate Hagens on November 3, 2009 - 10:21am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: energy efficiency, road transport, transportation, will stewart [list all tags]
This is a guest post from Will Stewart. Will is a systems engineer in the DC area and previously has written several guest posts on The Oil Drum, including a series on Passive Solar Design.
As oil production falls and volatile oil prices in concert with a struggling economy induce a pattern of demand suppression/destruction, mobility choices will narrow and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will decline. What should governments at all levels be proactively preparing for? What should individuals and their families be preparing for in advance? The choices are broad: at a high level, land use planners could refine cities into a series of compact, carfree urban districts interconnected with mass transit. For the existing built-out suburban and exurban communities, however, such choices are limited. Aside from telecommuting, transportation choices will increasingly include biking, carpooling/vanpooling, bus rapid transit, and other efficient means of transportation. Travel between cities and countries will also undergo a transformation, with air travel becoming less and less affordable.
This series will cover current and projected land-based vehicle energy efficiency and a high level overview of the factors that determine it, such as aerodynamic drag, weight, efficiency of motive force (e.g., engine, motor), rolling resistance, driver behavior, drivetrain losses, parasitic losses, environmental factors, Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT), etc. In this first article of the series, we will focus on energy losses associated with aerodynamic drag losses, or more succinctly, “drag”.
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| Tri Sled Avatar, a velomobile | Bus rapid transit in Cleveland |
The Future of European Transport: iTREN-2030
Posted by Rembrandt on October 30, 2009 - 10:23am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: brussels, eu, europe, itren-2030, oil consumption, transportation [list all tags]
On 21 October the final workshop was held in Brussels (Belgium) of the integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030 (iTREN-2030) modeling project. At the workshop a final scenario was presented that incorporated likely transport and energy policies, and the effects on European transport of a continued global plateau in oil production up to 2030. The integrated scenario was generated by four energy and transport models that have been linked in iTREN-2030 to increase the forecasting power of the transport policies of the European Commission.
In this post I describe the iTREN-2030 project and the different models, covering the POLES global energy supply and demand model in more detail, highlight the conclusions of the present integrated scenario, and give my reflection on the workshop commenting on some areas of improvement to augment the potential of the models.
The iTREN-2030 project is all the more important because the resulting model set and integrated scenario will be used by the European Commission (DG-Tren) in preparing the white paper on transport policies due for 2010. After discussion with the European Parliament and approval by the council of Minister, the European Union will as a result have set out its new course for the future of transport in the period up to 2020.
Insights Regarding Future World Oil Production Based on ASPO Denver Presentations
Posted by Rembrandt on October 26, 2009 - 10:27am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: aspo, aspo denver, aspo-8, aspo-usa, oil production, peak oil [list all tags]
"Peak oil can be a very tricky topic, the way I talk about it and deal with it at the end of the day is: We need to revolutionize the way we consume and produce energy... We need to really be the leaders in saying: the future for our children and our grandchildren as far as energy consumption and as far as production, it looks like this" with those words Colorado Governor Bill Ritter started his closing speech at the ASPO conference in Denver that took place from 10 to 12 October 2009.
Telling our children and grandchildren where they will draw their heat, electricity and liquid fuels from was not a topic of discussion in Denver. Nonetheless, much information was conveyed on the relationship between the economics crisis and the future of oil. This post is an attempt to summarize the main points on oil and the economy from the conference presentations--concluding that there are three distinct future trajectories as we go forward.
At the Denver conference, world oil production was discussed from both the supply side (what flow rate can be reached) and the demand side (how much can the economy afford). It is really the combination of the two that is important--so I bring together both in this post.
Hubbert's Peak - John Kinhart's Comic
Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 20, 2009 - 10:20am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: economy, john kinhart, peak oil [list all tags]
John Kinhart gave us permission to repost this cartoon from Sorry Comics.

Clunker Flunker? An Observation In Hindsight
Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 15, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: cash for clunkers, morgan downey [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Morgan Downey, author of Oil 101.
The US cash for clunkers program was designed to stimulate economic growth through the auto industry by encouraging individuals to trade in old vehicles for more fuel efficient models. The US$3 billion program ran from July 24 through August 24, 2009. The program resulted in an additional 690,114 cars being traded in. The average fuel efficiency of trade ins was 15.8 mpg and the average for the replacements was 24.9 mpg. Those receiving the clunker subsidy are supposed to be taxed on that benefit so the entire US$3 billion is not lost.
If you do the math, the saving in oil spending over the lifetime of the new vehicles could be great enough to justify the US$3 billion of taxpayer money spent. However, critics point out that the taxpayer is out of pocket for donating this one off efficiency saving to fortunate clunker owners without any benefit in return.
Now that the program is over, the data shows that there may be a single unexpected lesson.
What's Ahead in the Next Six Months?
Posted by Gail the Actuary on October 2, 2009 - 10:20am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Omega 3, Brain Health, and Society
Posted by Nate Hagens on September 9, 2009 - 6:40pm in The Oil Drum: Campfire
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: brain function, brain health, nutrition, omega 3, omega 6 [list all tags]
Below is a guest post on the importance of Omega 3/6 for brain function in a post peak world from Michel Petit, MD, (awashinoil on TheOilDrum). Dr. Petit is a General Physician, has been Peak Oil aware since 1996 (Scientific American Campbell and Laherrere), with special interests in environmental medicine, human evolution, nutrition, brain health, and the biology of aging. Like myself, Michel believes that our environment and our nutrition are very important if we want a healthy population.
OPEC Meets as Oil Demand Turns the Corner
Posted by Gail the Actuary on September 9, 2009 - 10:10am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: morgan downey, oil demand, opec, opec meeting, original [list all tags]
This post is a guest post by Morgan Downey. Morgan is author of the book ‘Oil 101’.
OPEC members announced cuts in late 2008 totaling 4.2 million barrels per day (Mb/d). Compliance with these cuts is currently running at around 3Mb/d.
Ahead of OPEC members meeting on Wednesday September 9 in Vienna, it is worth elaborating on why OPEC will likely refrain from making any production changes and why they may in fact need a temporary tightening of compliance with existing quotas by up to 500,000 barrels per day.
Let's Imagine a Sudden Oil Shortage
Posted by Phil Hart on August 29, 2009 - 10:55am in The Oil Drum: Australia/New Zealand
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: oil shortage [list all tags]
This is a guest post from Mark Reynolds, a supply chain and sustainability consultant in Sydney.
Let's imagine world oil supply suddenly drops by 10, 20 or 30 percent, more or less overnight, for several weeks or months to come. Don't worry about how or why – we can all think of ways a sudden oil shortage could arise. The more interesting questions are how we respond and what local impacts would follow. At the international level there is sure to be argy-bargy among countries over who gets what from where and how much we pay. It is hard to predict how these global issues may play out. In the case of a serious shortage the ways we share the remaining oil supply and set global prices will be a matter of life or death for some countries, particularly the smaller and poorer ones, so let us hope the international community surprises us with fairness.




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