The Oil Drum

This is a guest post by Jean Laherrère. I was asked recently by e-mail, referring to a 2002 paper on hydrates: I read your excellent questions. Do you have any answers posted? I decided to update my past papers on hydrates.

[Update: The Brasilian press is reporting wide criticism to Haroldo Lima who at the moment is denying he announced the find: “I haven't announced anything, nor did I used that word [anoucement] at any moment.” (hat tip Carolus Obscurus).]

Reuters reported yesterday:

Haroldo Lima told reporters the find, known as Carioca, could contain 33 billion barrels of oil equivalent, five times the recent giant Tupi discovery. That would further boost Brazil's prospects as an important world oil province and the source of new crude in the Americas.

"It could be the world's biggest discovery in the past 30 years, and the world's third-biggest currently active field," Lima, head of the government's oil and fuel market regulator, told reporters at an industry event in Rio de Janeiro.

The APPEA 2008 Conference is on in Perth this week - this is a roundup of the press commentary today (or yesterday, by the time you are likely to read it).

ABC - More than 2,000 oil and gas experts gather in Perth

Representatives of the oil and gas industry will discuss ways to tackle the challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, making workplaces safer and addressing the skills shortage at a conference in Perth today. More than 2,000 people associated with the oil and gas industry are meeting to discuss new demands and challenges facing the industry in Australia and overseas.

The Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPE) expects world energy demand to increase by 40 per cent by 2030. The chief executive of APPE, Belinda Robinson, says the industry needs to devise ways to meet the growing energy demand while still achieving reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. "If we can triple our LNG production on the basis that most of that goes to the Asia Pacific region we will be helping the Asia Pacific region reduce its greenhouse footprint," she said.

This is a guest post by Jean Laherrere.


World Arctic cumulative discovery.

USGS World Petroleum Assessment

In 2000, the United States Geological Survey issued its World Petroleum Assessment, covering the thirty year period 1995-2025 (Table 1). The resource estimates from this study are widely quoted to support the argument that oil production can continue to expand. (Comments now open!)

On the morning of November 12th a friend called me saying that the largest oil field in the world had just been found off Brasil. I then explained to him what the largest oil field in the world was like, and how implausible that information was. In fact since the late hours of the previous day the media was reporting “the largest world oil find in the last 20 years". Once again our energy problems were over, goodbye 90 dollar oil and so on. Déja vu? Didn't this all happen last year with the Jack field in the Gulf of Mexico?

There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models:

Three alternative Logistic models for Saudi production. Click for large version.

Earlier this year two books were published, The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan and The Battle for Barrels by Duncan Clarke. Both books address the question of future oil supplies but came to dramatically differing conclusions; Strahan arguing global oil production will soon peak and go into terminal decline, Clarke highlighting complexities concerning the evaluation of how much oil remains, historical mistakes in production forecasting and suggesting a more abundant view of our energy future.

The Last Oil Shock and The Battle For Barrels

Last month David Strahan published an open letter to Duncan Clarke, which we discussed here. Duncan Clark has been good enough to respond to Strahan with an open letter we are able to publish today. Full text below the fold.

Earlier this year two books were published, The Last Oil Shock by David Strahan and The Battle for Barrels by Duncan Clarke. Both books address the question of future oil supplies but came to dramatically differing conclusions; Strahan arguing global oil production will soon peak and go into terminal decline, Clarke highlighting complexities concerning the evaluation of how much oil remains, historical mistakes in production forecasting and suggesting a more abundant view of our energy future.

The Last Oil Shock and The Battle For Barrels

David Strahan has today published an open letter to Duncan Clarke, full text below the fold.

Below the fold there is a roundup of the five reports published in the first half of 2007 on the global coal situation. They are all broadly in agreement saying that there is likely to be less coal available than traditionally thought.

Photo by Tim Ellis (cc)

Thanks to Douglas Low of The Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC) for his assistance compiling this roundup.