Stories in topic "Policy/Politics"

Australian Senate: Peak Oil motion defeated 31:6

The Government and Opposition today voted against a Greens motion in the Senate calling on the Government to plan for peak oil.

Some predictions on the forthcoming Russian-Ukrainian gas 'crisis'

We've recently heard more veiled threats from Putin about Ukraine being unable to pay for gas (thus presumably leading to new attempts at cutting them off), which suggests that Russia is getting itself ready to start a new crisis. That means two things:

  1. the internal infighting between groups of powerful Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs for the control of unofficial Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine (more on this below) is still not conclusively settled, and requires "action" using official levers of State and interference with Gazprom's export deliveries through Ukraine;
  2. Russia thinks it stands a better chance to focus European blame on Ukraine and, even more importantly, to get Europeans to buy off the Ukrainians (thereby increasing the available unofficial gas loot for the players involved).
While Russia's actions are not easily understandable when considered as those of a country, they are much easier to interpret rationally when you look at who the actual players behind the scenes are. Conversely, public European reactions which sound logical are, in fact, incredibly naive if you know the industry a bit and, given that the people involved are certainly not naive, they are other things at stake.

So let's try to make some predictions and unravel what's actually going on.

Originally posted on European Tribune. See also my full series of articles on earlier episodes of the Russian-Ukrainian crises here

The US stimulus and "green jobs" for wind energy

Recently, there have been worried or angry or outraged articles in the blogosphere about the stimulus money going to help create jobs in Canada, China, or going into the pockets of foreign multinational companies.

I'd like to make a few comments on this.

This is part of my series on wind power.

European gas buyers unwilling to pay for security of supply

Even as we've been going through years of hand-wringing about security of supply, and about how Russia was an unreliable gas supplier, it comes out the European gas buyers are themselves increasingly refusing to pay the price that underpins the security of their Russian supplies, and are breaking their contractual obligations towards Gazprom, making Europe, erm, a less reliable customer... something that's likely to come and bite us in the near future:

European Energy Firms Fall Short in Gazprom Purchases

European energy companies, faced with weakening demand and plentiful lower-cost fuel supplies, have bought far less natural gas from Russia's OAO Gazprom this year than they are obliged to under long-term contracts -- setting the scene for a potentially damaging showdown with Moscow.

America 2.0 By Jay Hanson

Below the fold is the latest essay from Jay Hanson, which goes, how should I put it ... a bit beyond modern media discussions on the newest details of the economic stimulus program, whether the stock market is overvalued or whether carbon sequestration is a good idea. I don't concur with all of his prescriptions, and the mention of state control of anything makes me viscerally squirm, but Jay has usually been ahead of the curve in grasping the bigger picture - and compared to general business as usual thinking, way ahead. As a Campfire post I'd hope people discuss/debate his ideas, which center around removing personhood for corporations, making lobbying illegal, and having scientists and engineers inform policy, all enabling less waste of energy and other natural resources per unit time, for a longer time.

Though it may not be apparent to most, we are in the social crisis of our era. It is becoming increasingly clear we won't be able to service our large and growing debts in relation to the existing infrastructure and geopolitical landscape. How this and the myriad social, environmental and energy related issues get prioritized will require incredibly tough decisions, ones that will only get tougher the longer we delay.

Report on ASPO Switzerland, September 26th, 2009, Conference at University of Basel

This report concerns the second annual General Assembly of ASPO Switzerland held in conjunction with its annual Peak Oil Conference.

Dancing at the Edge of the Precipice - After Peak Oil

This is a guest post by Alexis Ziegler. Alexis is a communitarian, builder, orchardist and environmental activist living in central Virginia. He is the author of a recently published book, "Culture Change: Civil Liberty, Peak Oil, and the End of Empire". More information can be found at conev.org.

In the couple of years since Culture Change was first published, much has changed. Culture Change predicted that in 2007 we were "at or near" global peak oil production, and that we would face a "large economic contraction" as a result.1 In July 2008 oil production hit an all-time high of 74.8 million barrels per day and oil prices reached an unprecedented height of $147.27 in daily trading.2 Since then, the global economy has collapsed into the worst recession since the Great Depression. Oil prices have oscillated wildly, and oil production has declined as global demand has decreased.

Meanwhile, production from the giant oil fields which make up the lion's share of global production has continued to decline. There is a growing consensus, at least among those concerned about peak oil, that the July 2008 peak of production will probably remain as the all-time historic high for global oil production.3 As of the most recent measure, more than 60% of global oil fields are past peak and are now in permanent decline.4


World Oil Production from August Oil Watch Monthly

And the response has been.... silence.

Maribyrnong City Council Peak Oil Contingency Plan

As one of a team of three at The Institute for Sensible Transport working on this project, I'm very pleased to be able to announce Australia's first Peak Oil Contingency Plan, developed by Maribyrnong City Council in inner west Melbourne.



Debt/Resource Thought Experiment: How Would YOU Craft G20 Policy?

The past few days, delegates from 20 of the worlds largest economies met in Pittsburgh Pennsylvania to further develop international strategies to deal with the ongoing financial, energy and social crises. The "Leader's Statement" could reasonably be summarized by this excerpt:

"We further committed to additional steps to ensure strong, sustainable, and balanced growth, and to build a stronger international financial system."

Considering there was no mention of biophysical limits, nor of mankinds underlying consumptive drivers and considering that 'strong' is at cross purposes with 'sustainable' and 'balanced', I am left with the frustrating conclusion that our same old cargo cult beliefs - that growth and consumption will follow money/debt - are unfortunately alive and well. Below the fold is a brief overview and a chance for TOD readers to play G20 policymaker.



Fiat vs. Real - A Wile E. Coyote moment...

Renewables Transition 3: The Precautionary Principle

In the first two posts in this series (1 and 2), I discussed the requirements and challenges of transitioning our global economy to renewable sources of energy. My interim conclusion was that there are serious doubts about our ability to affect any significant transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Much of this uncertainty is the result of uncertain systemic energy return on energy invested. In other words, when all inputs are taken into account—as must be done where we’re talking about shifting energy sources on a civilizational level—can a world powered by solar and wind power itself the way it has on oil, gas, and coal?

The key take away is precisely this uncertainty: we simply don’t know if renewables—either current or potential future technology—will be up for the job. Where does that leave us? This discussion—and many others related to Peak Oil—is really a matter of what is known as the “Precautionary Principle,” or what degree of consensus is required before we embark on a course of action that may result in irreversible harm. Because the Precautionary Principle has such broad application in discussions of Peak Oil, I’ve modeled this post as a discussion of the principle itself, using the issue of renewables transition as but one example of its application.