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PCI (via EB): The Rise of the Axis of Oil (Two Hours of Video That Are Worth Your Time)
Posted by Prof. Goose on January 11, 2007 - 9:08pm
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: Post Carbon Institute, Richard Bell, senate, Senate Commitee on Energy and Natural Resources [list all tags]
Big hat tip to the Energy Bulletin (original link) for this story:
Richard Bell, Communications Director for Post Carbon Institute, reports on the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources' hearing into “The Geopolitics of Oil.” (here's a link to a video recording of the committee hearing itself...the hearing begins at about 17:30 minutes into the recording--before that, it's just dead time). Just how bad are the geopolitics of energy, from the perspective of the United States? This morning the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources launched its New Year with an unusual hearing into “The Geopolitics of Oil.”
The consensus conclusion of the witnesses: the United States is in deep, deep trouble, facing the emergence of an “axis of oil” that threatens to recreate the bi-polar world of the Cold War, complete with Russia as a principal actor.
Normally the Committee deals with less weighty matters, like fuel efficiency standards for cars. But the incoming chairman, Senator Jeff Bingaman, decided to go for the big picture, and the big picture is not pretty. There was an almost palpable sense of graveness and alarm that lent a chill to the room.
For the rest of the report, go to original article [link] on Global Public Media (free access). Energy is beginning to get serious consideration, as Dick Bell reports. Also, note that two major studies of the prospects for world energy supplies are currently underway in Washington.
Whenever relevant — as now — I have been fond of saying that regarding the "Cold War", let's see who actually won it when all the historical data have been accounted for.It's obvious that the West won the Cold War and that the chief beneficiaries are the previously oppressed population of the hard-line Communist States. One can easily draw an analogy with WWII after which Germany and Japan reigned supreme among their former enemies, following a painful recovery period. I applaud Russia's attempt to govern the exploitation of their petroleum resources and hope that they are still pumping well after the peak. We need a bumpy plateau, not a cliff.
Re: It's obvious that the West won the Cold War...
Right, my friend, you keep on thinking that...
Since I am interested in history, I like to take the longer view of these political events...
I just watched the 2 hours and it was enthralling. Also the first time in my life any politicians have managed to hold my interest for that long. I felt some Senators tried to hijack the debate a few times but never managed it. They did of course use up precious time.
The other reviews here cover the debate well, however regarding the Cold War, this "we won" thinking by the Americans is the problem, they are not playing from a position of strength, but of weakness. The expert witnesses acknowledged the need for dialogue & diplomacy and the Senators wanted to bomb something. It was as if they were having two different conversations.
Maybe if they let Russia join the WTO it would alleviate some of the tensions. The alternative is probably a re-united USSR.
This guy Putin looks like a bad ass poker player.
Gentlemen! The game is Texas Hold Em..Ante up.
I think he looks like the villian in a Bond movie.
With apologies to "Fiddler on the Roof": I went to my rabbi and asked if there is a blessing for Vladimir Putin.
"A blessing for Putin? Of Course. May God bless and keep Vladimir Putin--far away from us!"
Have you seen either "Children of Men" or
"The Good Shepherd" ?
I'd be interested in your thoughts on those movies. I'd be interested in your thoughts on a lot of movies. But you are a wanted man and I just thought I'd submit those two for your consideration.
The Good Shepherd.
My take. The agent's son blew away the Bay of Pigs invasion.
Who paid for this? His soon to be wife. Thrown out of an aircraft.
I think Ed Wilson(wasn't that the agent's name) should have paid for being such a schmuck regarding his son. He gets a free ride while Cuba becomes a communist state. The son appears to be a mental retard.
If I was JFK I would have had Ed Wilsons head on a plate.
'Skull and Bones' takes on some clout I suspect is mostly BS.
A bunch of sophomoric asses pretending to be earth shakers.
Other than these two bits of stupidity the movie was worth watching.
Someone needs to do a movie on Operation Mockingbird.
Free press? Free to lie. Free to distort.
Nice one. DeNiro and me gotta talk about, right Hothgor? It's a tough one, airdale. It's always like this. The director wants me to fuck all these girls, but I can't do that for various reasons. So we gotta subcontract out to SAT. But SAT likes to chill in his hottub with knitting and the rhyhmes. Whatever.
I'm watching a lot of old movies now. Highly recommended:
1. "Monty Python and the Holy Grail"
2. "Young Frankenstein"
3. "You Can't Take it with You"
Hunter Thompson 1958. When he still had hair. Pre-Hell's Angels. Nice Photo, Dave. It's almost as good as the one I took of Beckham's wife with no shirt on at St. Tropeis. Sean Connery playing me right now. (of course)
Illya Kuryakin.
I always thought he looked like Illya Kuryakin (David McCallum) Man from Uncle.
Hmmm...I do not want a dictatorship in the US. I fear that the namby pamby way we elect or leaders is the biggest problem. We need campaign contribution limits yesterday. This would reduce the ammount of "favors owed" to campaign supporters. Likely hood of passing = 0. A test for voting rights would never fly...Hollywood would have a hissy fit because some actors couldn't vote...
I respect Putin for what he is doing. He is under absolutely no obligation to sell oil at below world market rates to anyone and he shouldn't. This gives a 'tax like' credit to be wasteful. He has the power and is using it(like anyone else wouldn't).
I think we are screwed in the long haul. We don't have the will power...and our leaders have thier balls in hock to someone else.
we are one party away from being a dictatorship. our choices may appear to be many, but the fact remains we are either democrat or republican. the third party libetarian is a long long way off.
sounds scary doesn't it? but think about it for a moment. just one party away from a dictatorship. right now it's King George, but soon it'll likely be Queen Hillary! and what about if slick willie secures the position of Secretary General at the United Nations?
And i use to worry about Peak Oil!
As the Germans say: Scheitze!
Separated at birth?
Did you want Coffee or milk with your Pulonium 210?
The U.S. will not even admit they have a problem until it is too late. Putin is smart, losing the cold war was the best thing to happen to them. They reduced consumption, cut military spending, and now they still have some energy reserves to help them through the next twenty years. The U.S. is stupid, needless travel, cities lit up like xmas trees, yachts, jet skis, motor racing, you name it. I hate to say it but the U.S. needs a cold slap in the face, not more war.
"I hate to say it but the U.S. needs a cold slap in the face..."
I agree...
but...but...how are Brad and Jen doing? Are they back together? Did you watch survivor last night? Just pick up a tabloid at the check out stand and you too can have these vital quetions answered. Have your dog trixy's picture taken with Santa Claus at Petco. Cash out the equity from your house for a trip to Disneyland. Have a chocolate coffee latte...and a plastic blow up snow man(this is our economy)
Good luck...
A quarter of a billion doallrs for a washed up soccer player (David Beckham) kind of says it all for me.
After watching the 2 hour video - some key points
Axis of Oil - China, Russia and Iran is a concern as Russia & Iran own half the world's gas reserves
National Oil Companies now own 3/4 of reserves - a chart was presented to show this - almost no discussion about production - maybe the senators just assume that reserves can be easily converted to production to meet demand
Transparency is needed for reserve data
Iran has significant reserves but can't be converted to production due to investment constraints
Switchgrass & cellulostic ethanol might help offset oil dependency
Nuclear energy could be used to provide electricity to charge car batteries
US military spends $US50-60billion/year on protecting oil installations and transport channels which makes the real cost of gasoline about $US7/gallon.
I think I heard the IEA economist mention declining world reserves but maybe I was mistaken.
IEA economist said that only Saudi, Iran and Iraq are able to meet any demand supply shortfalls
China and India oil companies should be encouraged to become more market oriented
I believe that the USA will radically change energy policy, but only in a reactive and not a proactive manner, when the gasoline price doubles, natural gas outages occur, Saudi Arabia admits that Ghawar is in serious decline, CERA confirms that peak oil has passed or some other supply/demand shock occurs. The optimistic long term reserve based production forecasts by CERA, ExxonMobil, IEA and EIA do not create a sense of urgency to cause radical energy policy change.
The first step in solving a problem is realising that a problem exists - this committee hearing could be a first step to the awareness of a serious energy problem.
That's a very good summary, ace. I just watched in myself, and was fearing that I would have to write one up!
This could be a harbinger, there have been many. Either way, the feeling in that chamber was palpably fear-laden...
Cheer up!
They can only charge you as much as they possibly can up to the point where you start to walk. Once everyone starts walking the "infastructure to burn oil" will disappear and then won't they be sorry they ever messed with us!
Re the switchgrass/cellulosic thing, weren't they way too positive on this becoming a solution? Is there a consensus around TOD that the best practices in this area don't show big payoffs?
I think it's complicated. As I remember the discussions, many people With Reason To Know believe that fermentation is probably going to be extremely difficult and impractical.
But plain old drying, gasification and burning works---as stationary power generation.
Then you're talking about "recently grown coal" versus "fossilized coal" with the difference being climate change.
Of course the biofuel will be more expensive than coal, and as a result I think much less used without subsidies or CO2 controls, which I hence favor.
In the end, the US (and politically compatible Australia & Canada) have lots of coal and uranium and we'll have to exploit that instead of Vladimir and Osama's oil. (I expect Saudi Arabia to fall to a fundamentalist revolution sometime in the next 50 years).
For the sake of climate, I hope that we use much more of the second than the first.
Wow. This is probably the biggest statement I've seen/heard within the US government and world energy agencies in a long time. If you get the chance, watch the whole video, as it is ever so enlightening on a number of levels. I think the two most important are (1) The Chief of the Economic Analysis Division of the IEA, Dr. Fatih Biral, states that Peak Oil will hit within 10 years. This is not completely out of character for the IEA, but the message was directed at the US Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Natural Resources. Whether they got the message is another story altogether. (2) The opening comments from outgoing chair, Sen. Pete Domenici (R-NM) (starts at 20:08 in the video feed):
This statement is--pretty obviously--a thinly veiled reference to the persistently declining reserves of the Anglo-American supermajors. Whether Domenici realizes what the impacts of of this truly are to the stability of the US economy (specifically the valuation of publicly traded US companies) I do not know (but severely doubt--and I've followed his legislative activity and speeches on energy issues for a couple years now). I'm sure most readers of TOD are aware of these issues and their pressing relevancy, but I'm going to include a link to a powerpoint presentation I use on undergrads every term to raise awareness of the geopolitical nature of oil/energy.
http://oregonstate.edu/~crawfose/presentations/us_hegemony.ppt
But you a dollar that El Busho understands this. Hence the occupation of Iraq, the US involvement in Somalia, and the US provocation of Iran. Occupy two out of three and the historians, the warm, cafe-late sipping, SUV driving historians, will sing your praises. This is all I can think of to justify the cognitive dissonant El Busho worldview.
I read your presentation. There are a number of oversimplifications, but I think one will suffice: growing inequality and loss of middle class.
That is already happening, but not, as you suggest, because of oil scarcity or because the U.S. does not have access to oil.
I would argue that tax, labor, and environmental arbitrage--i.e., globalization itself--is far more directly responsible. Over sixty percent of China's exports are from foreign nationals within China. Over 80% of IT exports from China are from foreign nationals within China. And we are talking just of China here, forget about the other developing countries.
As a passing example, take a look at Verizon--or IBM--, everything possible is being offshored because of cheap labor and tax breaks. (China, for example, taxes foreign nationals at half the rate--15%--that it does its own companies. And sometimes foreign companies in China are given a free ride for ten years.)
The latest development is to move not only R&D offshore and middle management, but the upper management as well. (Check out IBM, for example. Upper management is being requested to move to China.)
America is being gutted, not by Russia, Iran, or KSA or Venezuela--but by its own companies that have made a fortune. Check out the stock market and profits being made.
If you focus exclusively on energy as your cause for all things, you will miss very important factors.
Now, it is absolutely true that most oil producers are national, not private companies.
And, as far as your plea for education, education...a "no-go." Globalization has taken care of that one, unless you want to be a banker and financier. Engineers, programmers--everything but economists--are being offshored, outsourced to cheaper labor areas. Globalization and the natural tendency for capital to maximize profits is gutting the middle class. Companies have no national loyalties. Walmart, which once used the slogan, "Made in America," now has communist party outlets in its Chinese factories. In fact, most of Walmart's stuff should say, "Made in China."
Ah, well....such is the glories of capitalism. Communism provides the sweat and the sweat shop labor; we get the goods.
As a brief addendum, the following came across my desk after I wrote the above.
http://www.economist.com/business/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8515811
In short, it is about "Made in China"--Intel, Nike...all the "boys." There is a fly in the ointment, as this article points out: Growing disparity of wealth in China. In fact,globalization, as it has been practiced, is the one of the primary culprits for disparity of wealth everywhere.
To tell your students that education is the answer may be a non-starter. Education is far cheaper in the East...and starting salaries are far lower.
Amen to cheap import causing the decline. I think most people need an enemy, but never the man in the mirror, who was soo excited about the "good deal" he got at the big box store. Some poor schmuck lost his job BFD look what I bought cheap.
I predict there will be lots of jobs in the future - all minimum wage. And the dollar won't buy much either.
I offered the presentation in case it was helpful to others, as it has been to many in the past--not for critique. Please do not try to analyze the content without having the benefit of the accompanying lecture--or the preceding ten weeks of lectures, for that matter, which deal specifically with the growth of inequality in the US and world.
I think that U.S. needs its own axis....
Grow-PEC. The GRaing OWning axis of food!And for those without ready access to some data...
Percentages of World Production
Also, EU+US+Canada+Australia producton of Wheat is 39.1% of world total.
(source 2005 CRB Commodity Yearbook)
With respect to demand...
Man on left has mucho oil & gas
Man on right has diddley-squat
Geopolitics Is Simple!
Shouldn't it be "Geopolitics Is Simple, Pootie-Poot!"?
or "The geo-politics of dancing...the geo-politics of oooh, feelin' good...the geo-politics of movin'...is this message understood?"
loud and clear. I have a screenplay centering on americans leaving for iraq. wanna read it?
The man on the right has a big army. The man on the left knows this. See his patience. The man on the left has to wait until the man on the right hangs himself economically, politically(world), or just gives up because there are too many problems at home. The man on the left will leverage his oil power until it too runs out.
I bet Putin has a smart good looking wife.
One Senator described the testimony as “frightening.” And the outgoing Republican chair, Senator Domenici (R-NM), said that “what you told us today is absolutely startling with reference to the future.” There appeared to be a genuine sense that some members really were surprised at how bad things look for the U.S. The shock was so great that after declaring himself a “free-market conservative,” Republican Jeff Sessions (R-AL) concluded the session by admitting that if you looked at energy as a national security issue rather than as a market commodity, Congress might be justified in spending more money on energy R&D and tax credits.
It would appear the senators mentioned above fear their career politican status!
Dragonfly -
What should we do in Iraq?
I had to write that. I wrote this whole thing that was supposed to go under Dave's Putin post but then it ended up somewhere else. Sorry.
I'm not sure this is an improvement. I'm a bit dismayed at the ads I've been seeing to the left. "to the left." Hah that's funny. Odo should like that.
I'm serious Dragon. What should we do in Iraq?
Your first mission is to find OIL CEO. He is responsible for this mess. Bring him back alive.