 | DrumBeat: October 5, 2007 | The Oil Drum | An insight on US strategic thinking - why so much cowering fear? |  |
| UK Government Response to Peak Oil Petition | The Oil Drum: Europe | An insight on US strategic thinking - why so much cowering fear? | |
Poverty of Vision
Posted by Euan Mearns on October 5, 2007 - 10:00am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: aspo, michael meacher, UK democracy [list all tags]
During the final panel debate at ASPO 6 in Cork, former Minister of State for the Environment, Privy Counsellor and UK Member of Parliament Michael Meacher gave a rousing reply to a question from the floor.
|
 |
Read the full text below the fold. Or download the 1 Mb wma audio file here. Thanks to Richard O'Rourke (ASPO Ireland) for sending me the audio file for this segment.
The question from the floor....
Michael, you know you're very eloquent, passionate and informed on this, you sat around the cabinet table in Downing Street and they supported the American invasion of Iraq to go after the oil. Why weren't more ministers around that table more convinced by what you had to say because you certainly had enough time to say it to them.
I'm not sure this provides full context, but its well worth reading how Mr Meacher replied.
Well why other people were not convinced is I suppose something that you’d have to ask them. But I think the answer to the question as to why politicians are unwilling to be courageous over this issue, not that I think it requires a great deal of courage, I think this is an up-coming issue which millions of people out there are increasingly responding to, and the extraordinary thing is that the politicians can’t see it. There is a large constituency out there which is actually going to carry them forward at election time, but they don’t see it.
I think there are three reasons. I agree, one is the centralisation of power, and I’m thinking in Britain that’s happened with spades. The fact is the cabinet is marginalised, parliament is not seriously listened to, the party is nowhere and the electorate, when it comes to the war over Iraq, 2 million people march and they were just ignored.
So it’s a very serious issue. I think the breakdown of accountability. The destruction of the mechanisms for holding to account of our leaders I think is a very, very big political issue in our country.
Can I just say very quickly two other points.
I think it’s a poverty of vision. I really do. I’m afraid I think we live far too much in the last two decades. We’re fighting issues about the role of the private market in public services. Of course, that’s an important issue. But far, far bigger issues are now permeating the landscape. And it’s as though the politicians have their heads down and just do not see the realities. The poverty of vision.
The other thing which I think is very important is vested interests. I mean who wants to keep the world the way it is?
The oil industry; the chemical industry; the food industry; the car industry; the airline industry; these are very powerful. Who rules Britain? Not parliament!
I’ll tell you who rules Britain. It is the Prime Minister with a small cabal around him of unelected advisors, not including members of the cabinet, meeting regularly with leaders of business, leaders of finance and I have to say with Mr Murdoch and leaders of the media, and taking the decisions over our heads which are then imposed upon us.
That’s the actual situation we face. It is a very serious breakdown of democracy. And until we deal with that, and until we regard that as an issue that is central to solving all our issues, including the environment and climate change, we’re not going to get very far.
There are maybe no big surprises here, but it puts into sharp focus how our democracy seems totally broken.
My emphasis on seems is because we are at the same time ruled more by referendum and poll than ever before. And our New Labour government is riding high in the polls.
Can democracy and the market economy address the momentous issues that Peak Oil, Energy Decline and Climate Change present?
You know you're in trouble when:
You have a Minister of the State who can be heard getting more desperate by
the year as he struggles to understand why he still has a job given that:
a) He is categorical in his views on 9/11 - (the USA did it)
b) He is categorical in his views on Peak Oil (it's real)
c) He is categorical in his views on Climate Change (it's also real)
d) He is categorical in his views on Permanent Government (it's real too)
I guess his colleagues generally agree with him, but just can't seem to get it
together to do something about it ... one way or another.
Front bench or backbench I wish they really did "hear, hear, hear" when they
say they do and then act, act, act as we all thought they were going to.
Well done Mr Meacher.
It's you guys I keep in mind when I tick the Labour box on the ballot paper.
I find it interesting that some still put on an appearance of denying b, c, and d when it's obvious to almost everyone else that they are real.
Kata Maran
Suggested reading: The Rise & Fall of the Third Reich, by Wm. L. Shirer.
Compare the "Reichstag Fire" and it's aftermath to the demolition of the WTC & it's aftermath in Amerika...
While digesting that, please let us know where you think the two "missing" airliners are...
When finished, please let us know the answer...
Kata
To quote Gustave Le Bon, "The Crowd":
Le Bon is referring to nothing more than universally accepted beliefs. I think one of the unquestioned beliefs upon which modern society today is based is that energy is forever cheap and abundant. Our rampant denial of anything to the contrary is an important protection mechanism of the herd that serves to keep society intact. Society is doomed once its constituents begin to question the fundamental belief of forever cheap and abundant energy. When the crunch begins to really be felt, and the techo-fix wonder replacements remain stubbornly around the corner, reality will be forced upon us.
To believe we can transition to a much lower-energy world while retaining our civilization of today is to bet that out of all of human history, this time will be different.
And isn't another fundamental belief to Civilization, as Daniel Quinn put it, that "Man was made to rule the world, and the world was made for Man to rule it"?
That we are are somehow separate from the rest of the life on this planet, and that we "own" the planet and can do whatever we want, is perhaps more fundamental belief than a belief of forever cheap and abundant energy.
Even if energy were forever cheap and abundant, we would still rely on the first belief to "own" that energy and do whatever we wanted with it.
Euan – thx for posting this!
AND KUDOS to former Minister of State for the Environment, Privy Counsellor and UK Member of Parliament Michael Meacher (well put)
It was scary and comforting at the same time – Scary because it aligns with my own sensations that “big biz” is running to much of world politics (…and in the US in particular… but also US international Co’s abroad) – but comforting to know that some in the political establishments are aware of the situation …
Now folks – ultimately it is still in your hands – BUT you have to become more interested in your own life amd the life of your kids… – and thus start to learn to separate important stuff from NOT SO important stuff… most countries are still “democratic” … and some kinds of political parties are headed for the historical dust-bin…
Euan Mearns,
Thank you for finding this and posting it for us. I was hoping things were a little better in the UK than in the US, but apparently not.
I think the root of the problem is the concentration of free information in a very few media companies, and the loss of reading as a source of info by the people who participate in the political process. The free press is declining precipitously in bothe number and readership, while the blogosphere is still so new thats its hard for a smart, committed person to get the info necessary to make decent choices. Its still such a vague process that I'm not sure that the "Iron Triangle" is even aware of their own methods, what they do in the united states is band together in various interest groups or caucuses within the Republican party. The problem is that the economy is changing so rapidly that the coaltions cannot hold, but the members of the caucus can't see quickly enough how their own limb is breaking and they may even need to get in touch with their Inner Democrat (sarcanol alert).
Here's a good example of that. The automobile industry is a charter member of the Iron Triangle. The big three US auto makers are broke, and they may be forced to liquidate rather than take Chapter 11 Bankruptcy because of their liabilities to the Pension guarantee Board. They looted the pension funds of the companies under George H.W. Bush and gave out the money as high officer's bonuses based on the new efficency of their fabulous new buisness models.
Their only hope for getting off the hook and being forced to liquidate is the Government assuming the medical insurace that they promised as part of the pensions-at least 40% of their unfunded liability. So they are breaking with the other conservative republicrats on Public Health care and joining with the Unions to call for National Health Care. And it goes on and on. Bob Ebersole
I think the root of the problem is the concentration of free information in a very few media companies
Who Owns the Media:
http://la.indymedia.og/news/2003/04/47530.php
One Example;
GENERAL ELECTRIC
Television Holdings:
* NBC: includes 13 stations, 28% of US households.
* NBC Network News:
The Today Show,
Nightly News with Tom Brokaw,
Meet the Press,
Dateline NBC,
NBC News at Sunrise.
* CNBC business television; MSNBC 24-hour cable and Internet news service (co-owned by NBC and Microsoft); Court TV (co-owned with Time Warner), Bravo (50%), A&E (25%), History Channel (25%) (The CORRECT History that is). The "MS" in MSNBC means microsoft
That's just one company. Hit the link for others.
Euan...reading this all reminded me of westexas' "iron triangle" discourse over here in the States. I guess the US is not alone in these pressures.
"The oil industry; the chemical industry; the food industry; the car industry; the airline industry; these are very powerful. Who rules Britain? Not parliament!
I’ll tell you who rules Britain. It is the Prime Minister with a small cabal around him of unelected advisors, not including members of the cabinet, meeting regularly with leaders of business, leaders of finance and I have to say with Mr Murdoch and leaders of the media, and taking the decisions over our heads which are then imposed upon us."
Wasn't it Mousselini that said "Fascism is better called corporatism as it is the merger of state and corporations"?
And to answer your last question, Euan, a plain "no" suffices.
yes it was , and I may add labour unions were part of the ruling triangle.(at least as a principle)
Well..
..In point of fact not quite.
This quote is frequently attributed to Mussolini and it is very much in line with fascist thought but he it is unlikely that he actually said it. See an explanation here
Tim
well, I'm talking about Fascism in general - more here ... read obout collectivism..
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
Too many people at the top are making too much money with things exactly the way they are. And they will do their utmost to keep things exactly the way they are. The only possibility would be a crash so fast and hard that it outpaced the elite's ability to stay on top of it.
Yes, there is certainly a contradiction there, as the evidence shows the very condition you claim to be "broken" to be highly popular with voters. Such popularity rubbishes the conspiracy theory that
If the PM must go over over Michael Meacher's head to accomplish the wishes of the voters, then clearly it must be Meacher, not the PM, whose attitudes are out of alignment with democracy. And if Murdoch's desires happen to be aligned with the voter's desires, well, too bad.
So, then, could the fault lie with democracy itself? Oh, but it's politically incorrect even to mention the irrationality and stupidity of the average voter - even Hitler came into office more or less by way of the established procedures of his time and place - "As democracy is perfected, the office of president represents, more and more closely, the inner soul of the people. On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron." (H.L. Mencken, American writer.) Though we must admit that serious students of the subject will tiptoe around it by preposterously claiming that the stupidities and insanities miraculously average out to zero to an accuracy of several decimal places.
No matter, we must stomp the thought out with all our might, lest every Marxist professor we are ever subjected to should flunk us out. But that only leaves us with the remaining alternative, that the voters are (on balance) right. If so, then I must suppose the world is not coming to an end and we, here, are simply worrying too hard. But that thought, too, seems sufficiently politically incorrect to get us flunked out.
Hmmm...I see no way out but to think at least one politically incorrect thought. And the thoughts in play on this occasion in no way contradict each other...
Paul: When you're right you're right. A lot of the evil actions undertaken by the "elite" in the USA are unpopular on TOD but surprisingly popular among the great unwashed. The main problem with democracy is like the comment about World Wrestling Federation fans- they can vote and they can breed.
Governments should be kept small and weak, with powers enumerated clearly in a restrictive constitution. Arguably that subverts democracy, but it is a realistic method to protect minority rights and to prevent tyranny.
The problem isn't with voters, it lies within the system.
Well, enumerated powers used to be the American approach, but I'm not so sure at all that the problem "lies with the system".
"Safety" (physical and/or economic) trumps rights and liberty every time. So it was that America eviscerated its constitution to respond to the Great Depression. So it was that America further eviscerated its constitution to respond to 9/11. That's the voters caring not a fig about any consideration beyond their own skins.
Even the most utterly trivial "safety" scare suffices. So it was that America spent countless millions on an Alar scare amounting to exactly nothing. So it is that everyone spends countless billions on environmental and medical scares amounting at best to next to nothing. That's usually the voters visiting revenge upon the entities, corporate or otherwise, that deliver the highly unwanted news that those selfsame voters must get up in the morning and go to work.
I don't know that any "system" can ever change any of this, because a restrictive constitution can be - and to a great extent has been - simply voted away. Certainly the European "system" of parliamentary dictatorship is unlikely to do better, as the paucity of limitations provides powerful incentive for 51% to loot the other 49%, or to engage in whatever other mischief happens to please them.
Who will guard the guardians? There is no law that can prevent its own abuse. If you want an uncorrupted system, you must stay vigilant at all times.
Well I need to start by saying that I used to be a great fan of Hulk Hogan.
It is an interesting paradox where we can relate to the inadequacy of our democracy whilst at the same time declaring it to be very popular with the majority. The reason I think is that the interests of The People, Corporations and Government are all aligned - consume more, make loads of money and taxes - and I have nothing against that, done on a sustainable basis.
The challenge, therefore, must lie in educating the people that their very steep and selfish discount rates on this particular issue is not actually in their best interests. How exactly you get that message across, if at all, is a major challenge.
If it is not possible somehow to convince people and government that a course of relative austerity is in fact going to be good for them in the long run then the issue will clearly not be resolvable by democratic means. I guess that leaves dictatorship or anarchy as the options.
I still have a romantic notion the PO itself may act as a catalyst for action. Working with Luis right now, we can show that peak FF will likely occur more than a decade after PO. Hence, relative shortage of liquid fuel will not equate to a shortage of energy in general - for a good while. There will be a window of opportunity for a crash program of dramatic expansion of renewables and infrastructure. An opportunity for the World / OECD to build its way out of depression?
Hello Euan,
and thank you for an interesting and thought provoking post.
With respect to peak FF following PO, I just want to add some food for thought.
Oil is KING among the energy sources and mainly used for mobility (transportation) for which machines (cars, airplanes etc) are manufactured with input from other energy sources (natural gas, coal, nuclear). In other words there seems to be a division of labor among the energy sources within the energy mix. The substitution argument seems quite common in some circles as a response to PO.
I, for one, am not fully convinced this will happen.
Could it be that post PO (and after some substitution) that energy demand from other sources becomes affected and starts to head in the same direction as oil (i.e. southwards)?
The other thing is the dire situation with respect to nat gas reserves within some big consumer regions like North America and UK. Would it be possible to scale up deliveries from nat gas rich regions (like the Middle East and Russia, where presently most of the increase in production is used for a growing domestic consumption) fast enough to both substitute for declining oil (substitution where this is feasible) and nat gas production?
Apart from that I agree with you that educating the people is a good and an enormous task as the steep discount rates will give new meaning to the expression “hitting a brick wall”.
Just my 2p.
NGM2
MGN2, Tracking energy flows is tricky business. Falling nat gas in N America has not yet lead to a crater owing in part to de-industrialistaion and in particular gas intensive industries such as fertilizer manufacture moving to ME. What this means of course is exportation of energy and food security.
There will be major disslocations - but at present I'd like to differentiate between a disslocation and a cliff edge.
I'm always looking for solutions. If I reach the point where I decide there are none - I will move back to Norway, buy a small farm and fish for salmon all day.
The situation does seem to be rather intractable.
The system is currently not addressing the very real and very serious problems of GW and PO. The current system is very heavily entrenched. A brief review:
The government represents industry at the expense of the people. The media is owned by industry and it represent industry at the expense of the people. The populous is poorly informed and ill equipped to take the government to task. Furthermore, the populous works for industry, we the people are thus heavily indoctrinated with the present system. It's not surprising that it is highly popular with voters.
Sadly, I agree. I don't think the system we have right now will handle the long emergency very well.
The solution I propose is to socialize ownership of industry by making industry worker owned. I don't think that it is possible to legislate a change like this in the present system. Instead, we need to out compete existing industry. Since existing industry is presently based on the unsustainable BAU model its days are numbered. If we create worker owned solar companies, biodiesel companies, organic farms, etc. and those businesses are going to be dominant after the peak, then we fundamentally change the nature of industry and its effects on media, government, and the populous. If we do it right then we just might get a civilization worth living in. One with social cohesion and economic stability.
I recommend Gar Alporovitz's book America Beyond Capitalism: Reclaiming our Wealth, Our Liberty, and Our Democracy as a starting point. Also worth looking at Mondragon Corporation, a huge worker owned business, and its wikipedia entry here. It is worth noting that the Mondragon cooperative was started during the rule of Franco a fascist dictator.
Tim
Euan,
I think many of the TOD contributors (and commenters) are doing an excellent job in trying to describe the energy challenges we are facing and looking for solutions to moderate those effects.
Some of the American nat gas consumption has been substituted with distillates and RFOs (Residual Fuel Oils).
The reason why I refer to oil as KING among the energy sources is that oil may easily substitute the other energy sources, while the reverse substitution is harder to achieve.
So far the nat gas decline in North America has been modest. Therefore it should (so far) not have a dramatic effect, price rationing has so far driven out marginal demand.
But what about the effects on the American (or world) auto industry?
Some of the first victims for PO (with huge price increases on oil) will be auto industries (less demand for cars) and airline travel (less demand for aero planes), both cars and aero planes requires huge amounts of energy (normally from other energy sources) in their manufacturing. PO will, as far as I understand it, could create some paradoxes, a declining global oil supply could (after some substitution has taken place) reduce demand for other energy sources, thus creating a downward pressure on prices for energy from those sources until supply again meets demand and thus generates a renewed upward pressure.
The hard thing about PO is that there is no travel guide into the future we are headed, we are entering unchartered waters.
Euan, you are welcome to Norway and I will accompany you on some of the fishing trips (I’ll bring some good whiskey as well).
By the way I hope you have installed a wood stove in your home for the upcoming heating season. UK nat gas supply does now look very challenging, as they had to withdraw from the Rough storage facilities earlier this week.
Rgds
NGM2
Well I meant to do this last year, but never got around to it - but this will be well up my priority list when I get back from ASPO Houston. I've spent a fair amount of time this past couple of weeks opening new bank accounts.
Another poster mentioned problems with gas delivery from Langeled and if they're dipping into Rough alraedy - JC!
I'm going to do a long over due post on UK gas supplies - so if you have any news items / links please send.
This chart - which is based on work that you did, is a year out of date - and I gotta try and remember how I made it. Forecasting into the annual cycle is the challenge.
Hello Euan,
I have my figures/diagrams regularly updated as data from DTI is released. I also made a model forecasting (primarily 12 month into the future) stock withdrawals (and injections as well) based upon UK domestic supplies, imports from Norway, from the Netherlands (BBL system), the Interconnector (that allows for bidirectional flow and last heating season there was little flow from the Continent to the UK, UK was awash in nat gas last heating season also due to a mild winter) LNG imports (from the Isle of Grain), in other words a complete model of the UK nat gas supplies system. The hard part to predict is temperatures (or weather).
The model assumes a pattern for “normal” consumption (this is easily modified to simulate other weather patterns) as the average of the last 5 years, and I have noticed that this is pretty much in line with the “normal” demand curve which the National Grid presently is using.
Decline in marketable UK nat gas supplies is presently running at an annual rate of approximately 10 %.
Short, medium and long time storage was (as of 05. Oct.) close to 90 % recharged (refilled) based upon data from National Grid.
Deliveries in Easington from Norway through Langeled (includes deliveries from Ormen Lange) has lately been running at a rate of 50 - 60 Mcm/d, in addition I would estimate that approximately 20 Mcm/d is presently being delivered through Vesterled (Previous FNA; Frigg Norwegian Association) at the TOTAL facilities in St. Fergus. Later this fall deliveries through the new Tampen link (my present guesstimate at approximately 5 Mcm/d) will start deliveries though the FLAGS system (SHELL?) IN St. Fergus.
Ormen Lange has presently (to my best knowledge) 3 operating wells each at approximately 2 Mcm/d and will gradually drill, complete and deliver gas from 24 producer wells by 2009. This means roughly that a new well with a productive capacity of 2 Mcm/d will be brought on stream each month from now on. This also means that deliveries to UK from Norway through Langeled are presently complemented with nat gas from Kvitebjørn (presently down) Troll, Visund and the Sleipner area.
So what are the outlooks for the upcoming heating season?
Weather or temperature plays an important part in nat gas demand and consumption during the heating season (should not come as a surprise).
Assuming a normal winter, present status of the storage levels, imports totaling approximately the levels of last heating season and a decline in domestic marketable nat gas supplies of 20 - 25 Mcm/d relative last heating season (2006/2007) this heating season could be a close call, and it is now hard to exclude the possibilities of GBAs being issued late in the heating season.
What if the weather the upcoming heating season becomes colder than normal?
I know of two good indicators to watch carefully, the price of nat gas (that recently went beyond 42 p/therm and presently down to approximately 35 p/therm) at NBP and the storage levels that are updated daily at National Grids web site.
This winter could become an interesting one for UK nat gas supplies.
(Euan, I have got my fishing gear ready this morning……)
Rgds
NGM2
MgN2
I'll send you an email.
I'd need to borrow a rod as the UK authorites don't like your salmon bug any more.
Weather forecasting is a black art. This year we had an exceptioanlly mild April and October but June through August was crap.
Also need to remember that the UK is still building new gas fored power stations.
EuNa
. Falling nat gas in N America has not yet lead to a crater owing in part to de-industrialistaion and in particular gas intensive industries such as fertilizer manufacture moving to ME
Having been in the Plastic industry, I know that all PolyEthyene resin has gone out of the country, and I understand that Fertilizer also.
I wish someone could come up with a number of the amount of NG that was saved(added back into the market) because of these industries leaving.
5% of our usage?
10%?
How many years did that Onetime "moving off shore" buy us?
These are pretty imporant issues in the bigger picture, which I'm not sure anyone at TOD can answer. What we do know is that the US (and other OECD countries) have soaring imports. Much of this might be energy in the disguise of plastic, fertilizer and other manufactured goods. As you say this is a "Onetime" shift that bought some time.
Just let us know when u start fishing.
Be careful of relying on salmon.
One of the many strikes by the Newcastle keelmen [the original bolshy workers] was over being 'forced' to eat salmon every day [I think it was part of the wages or something..]
http://www.rapper.org.uk/archive/keelmen_strike.php
That is the reason I will bring some whiskey (and Norwegian aquavit).;-)
Rgds
NGM2
And I'l bring some proper whisky. A smoky malt for smoky salmon and spekke matt.
A small farm, with fishing rights in a salmon river? Better start looking already, I don't think those properties are very common in the market nor cheap :)
A small farm of any kind can be a bit hard to get hold of even though the number of farmers are steadily decreasing, and if TSHTF I think it will be close to impossible. The reason is the "odel"-laws, stating that the oldest child of a farmer has the right to buy it when his parents give up. If he doesn't want it the right passes to the second oldest child. Then the third. If no child wants it, the grandchildren are next in line. Then siblings of the farmer. Then their children. Then cousins of the farmer. Then their children. And so on. It's easy to see how becoming a farmer can be kind of hard if noone in your family owns a farm, or if someone above you in the chain wants it.
If you do manage to buy a farm there is another law that says you need to live on the farm and run it for at least 5 years, this is to discourage speculation and make sure wealthy citydwellers don't just buy up all the abandoned farmhouses for use as vacation homes. It seems this rule is easily gotten around though.
The solution ofcourse is to marry the oldest child of a farmer ;) Interestingly, I am one of those oldest children of a farmer, and I'm not going to let it pass when my parents decide to retire. Strange as it is, I'm not yet forced to turn down hordes of desperate females begging me to marry them, so most people must still be under the impression that the party will go on.
Before seeing your numbers I'm doubtful we can continue total FF expansion for a decade post peak oil - I mean in energy terms oil is the most significant FF so expecting coal and gas to be able to increase supply to not only off-set declining oil but also provide growth for at least a decade seems a big ask.
Regional aspects are key to gas and coal, so even with large reserves it's highly questionable if they can be converted into rapidly increasing rates of supply.
Look forward to seeing your numbers
I was getting carried away - another dopamine surge I'm afraid. Somewhat less than a decade is the reality. But I will stand by my point of the window of opportunity - albeit a small one.
Your small window of opportunity depends on your assumption that we are not yet at peak. What happens (or already happened) to your window of opportunity if we truly turn out to be post peak? Getting that farm you've talked about sounds better all the time.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
I recalculated my Saudi forecast for C+C. Pretty interesting eh?