DrumBeat: October 5, 2007


Jeff Rubin: OPEC's Growing Call on Itself (PDF)

Lots of graphs, including this one:

Big Arctic gamble by small oil company could embolden independent exploration in Alaska fields

Drilling in a field capable of yielding as much as 90 million barrels of oil seemed just right for Pioneer Natural Resources Co. - except for one thing. The field sits about three miles offshore in the Arctic Ocean.

Undaunted, the Irving, Texas, company had a solution. Build a gravel island, equip it with a drilling rig and then ship the oil through eight miles of pipeline to a processing center onshore.


MCRS meeting will explore local rail option

"Peak oil has caused Willits to rapidly try to convert to a localized economy spurred on by the Willits Economic LocaLization movement," says the MCRS' Richard Jergenson. And sustainability "has to include an inexpensive local transportation system that would rely little, or not at all, on oil or coal."


Dallas Fed chief warns on inflation

The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has cautioned against ignoring the inflation represented by rising food and energy prices, revealing a continuing debate inside the US central bank over how best to evaluate price pressures.

Richard Fisher on Thursday said the increases in food and energy prices over recent years could represent “longer-lived trends rather than transitory blips”. If this was the case “the arguments made for excluding food and energy prices” from core inflation, the Fed’s traditionally preferred measure, “would be on shaky ground”.


Climate change disaster is upon us, warns UN

A record number of floods, droughts and storms around the world this year amount to a climate change "mega disaster", the United Nation's emergency relief coordinator, Sir John Holmes, has warned.


Lawmakers to Pentagon: Plan for climate change

The Defense authorization bill approved by the Senate this week would require the Pentagon to consider the effects of climate change on military capabilities, facilities and missions.

The House version of the bill (H.R. 1585) contains similar language, which means the provision likely will become law.


Big Coal Tries to Recruit Military to Kindle a Market

The coal industry wants the U.S. military to jump-start a major new market for its product: liquid transportation fuels derived from coal.

The effort, however, faces skeptics who say the Pentagon shouldn't be subsidizing the high cost and potential environmental harm of what is known as coal-to-liquids technology.


Innovation cheaper than oil

One of the greatest failures of leadership in the modern era can be summed up with two numbers: In the United States, public funding for energy research and development came to $8 billion in 1980; in 2005, it was $3 billion.

To understand how dramatic -- and tragic -- those numbers are, they have to be read in an historical context that starts in January, 1968.

That month, British prime minister Harold Wilson, struggling to cope with another economic crisis, announced that British forces would be withdrawn from the Persian Gulf. By November, 1971, the evacuation was complete -- and the Gulf was thrown into turmoil.


The green job boom

Renewable energy supporters say the industry could create millions of new jobs, but economists are split.


Server farm goes solar

Massive data centers are vital to the economy. They are also notorious power hogs. If their numbers keep growing at the expected rate, the United States alone will need nearly a dozen new power plants by 2011 just to keep the data flowing, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.

That's why a small server-farm company called AISO.net (for "affordable Internet services online") has gone completely off the grid. Located 80 miles southeast of Los Angeles in the desert hamlet of Romoland, AISO.net has flanked its 2,000-square-foot building with two banks of ground-mounted solar panels, which generate 12 kilowatts of electricity. Batteries store the juice for nighttime operation.


Alarm bells ring about North Sea output

Output from the North Sea fell for the fifth month in a row in July, despite record oil prices, in a development that could increase concerns about the UK's growing reliance on imports from potentially volatile areas.

The latest Oil and Gas Index from Royal Bank of Scotland showed total production of oil and gas averaged 2,088,083 barrels oil equivalent daily. This was down 10.3% on June and 17.9% on July 2006.


Another 'must read' from Hansen

I have previously written about the crucial climate variable -- the equilibrium climate sensitivity (typically estimated at about 3°C for double CO2) -- and how it only includes fast feedbacks, such as water vapor. Now Hansen has a draft article that looks at both current climate forcings and the paleoclimate record to conclude that "long-term" sensitivity is a stunning 6°C for doubled CO2. Here is what Hansen says on the subject (though when you read it you may wonder why Hansen is more optimistic than I am, rather than less)...


Price rise causing big concern in Gulf states

The Gulf countries, though flush with huge amounts of money as a result of rising oil income, are also facing problems of imported inflation since they import most of the foodstuff and other items.

With their currencies pegged with the US dollar, a need has been felt for revaluation of currencies or for ending the peg.


Soaring oil prices could trigger a US attack on Iran

Cheney argued that lower oil prices would help dry out Iran's nuclear ambitions, cripple its economy and therefore restrict its ability to meddle in regional affairs. Recent increases in the oil market indicate that Cheney's strategy has failed. This could indeed act as a catalyst for military action against Iran.


Ecuador's president decrees government to take 99 percent of windfall oil profits

Ecuador's leftist President Rafael Correa decreed on Thursday that the government will take 99 percent of windfall oil profits that had previously been split with foreign oil companies.


India cuts to the chase with Myanmar

There is international pressure on India not to engage with the military junta in Myanmar that severely cracked down on pro-democracy protestors recently. But it seems New Delhi has other ideas.


Central Africa: The Curse of Oil in the Great Lakes of Africa

The oil prospects of the Great Lakes region appear at once more dangerous. Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo are sitting on what prospectors believe could be oil reserves of up to one billion barrels in the Albertine Basin which they share. At the time of writing, the oil region of the eastern DRC was the theatre of clashes culminating in killing of civilians and militaries by the Ugandan and Congolese armies. This is now leading to fears that the lake Albert conflict may spread and make a renewed cross-border conflict involving other negative forces and countries.


Oil from Iraq

Carlton Meyer takes a look at the origins of the modern Iraqi state and finds geopolitics go back a long way... no surprise. Add a dash of peak oil -- complements of Mr Cheney "producing oil is obviously a self-depleting activity" -- and the pressure is on. But contrary to what many might assume, Iraq is part of a larger regional picture with a fully capable army not just on its eastern border but to the north as well. Agents provocateurs may rally Kurdish nationalism, but the Turks have long kept a eye on that issue. Mr Meyer is keeping an eye on the Turks.


US has no immediate plans to buy oil for SPR

U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Thursday that the Energy Department has no "immediate plans" to go into the market to purchase oil for refilling the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve.


MMS Proposes Modernization of Pipeline Regulations

The U.S. Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service is proposing to revise the regulations covering pipelines and pipeline rights-of-way on the Outer Continental Shelf in an effort to bring regulations up to date with current MMS policies and selected industry practices,


It's not easy being green

Melody Jones, senior vice president of investment banking for Pacific Growth Equities LLC, conducted an informal survey of 25 venture capitalists last year about when they expect to see returns on their cleantech investments.

She's still talking about their answers.

"Almost across the board, everybody felt like they were still looking for companies with exit-time horizons of three to five years, about what they're looking at with their tech investments," she said. "My feeling is they might not want to admit publicly that it's necessarily going to be longer than that, either because they don't think it will be, or they just don't know. We'll see what reality is, but only time will tell how it plays out."


Biofuel Bandwagon Slows as Feedstock Prices Surge

The biofuels bandwagon may be running out of gas with soaring costs for feedstocks like wheat and palm oil prompting producers to shelve planned plants and cut output at existing facilities.


Self regulate, to counter anti-palm oil lobby, says state minister

Oil palm companies in the east Asean growth area must adopt "self regulation" through sustainable development to counter the anti-palm oil lobby.


China's coal industry urged to speed up energy saving

China's coal mining industry has been urged to be more efficient in energy consumption so as to realize the goal of saving 60 million tons of standard coal set in the government's 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010).


Meet the world's fastest electric car

Tesla veteran Ian Wright has built the fastest electric car on the planet.


Australia: Smart meters may increase energy use

A PROPOSED roll-out of energy smart meters may lead households to use more electricity rather than less, with economic modelling showing they can increase power use.


Jeff Rubin on CNBC: The Export/Land Model in Action

If you haven’t read up on Jeffrey Brown’s (aka Westexas on The Oil Drum) Export Land Model, please do so. This will be one of, if not the most important factors affecting the price of oil, and therefore the world economy over the next decade.

CNBC had economist Jeffrey Rubin on one of it’s live shows this week to discuss future energy prices, and it’s obvious that he both gave them an answer they didn’t care for, nor one they could easily refute. ‘


The holiness of Stuart Staniford

One of the great divides in Peak Oil discussion is between the 'doomers' and the rest (rather like the battles between 'fundamentalists' and the rest in religious spheres). In contrast to Stuart it seems to me that the doomer perspective is a clear example of wishcasting, of, in Christian terms, idolatry. The doomer perspective seems most characterised by an insistence that the future must take a particular shape, one constrained by the laws of physics and envisioning a necessary decline in human population as the inevitable corollary of the decline in available energy. The desires here might be a juvenile wish to see big explosions, or, more likely, a deeply rooted hatred for the present order and a wish to see it destroyed (I think to some extent I share both those motives - which is why I often find myself thinking within a doomer framework). Yet what is not encompassed by the doomer perspective is the sense that the future is not written; that there is much that cannot yet be known; and that human nature is not a closed system but one which is open to change - often extremely rapid change. I have no doubt that our present industrial system has only a very short shelf-life left - what I am not persuaded of is that human civilisation is about to come to an abrupt end. In other words I choose to practice the Christian virtue of hope - not as a vague sentiment; not as a denial of publicly available truths; but as the commitment to another spiritual perspective, built upon that humble attention to the truth exemplified in Stuart's work, but which remains open to where God is leading us. This is what it means to pray about Peak Oil: to cleave fast to the truth, and to abide in hope.


Can a Plucky U.S. Economy Surmount $80 Oil?

Oil prices, an economic scourge in decades past, have soared to record levels in recent years. But the fallout often seemed negligible: Americans kept spending; employment kept growing; factories, construction crews and retail stores stayed busy.

Now, however, the economy may be starting to sputter as damage from the weak housing market drags down growth. If payrolls drop significantly, will high-price crude oil begin to cause pain in a way that it hasn’t in nearly three decades?


John Michael Greer: Toward an ecotechnic society

Plenty of people aware of the peak oil issue nowadays, for example, think of it in terms of finding some new energy source so that we can maintain industrial society in something like its current form.

From an ecological standpoint, this approach nearly defines the term “counterproductive,” because it’s precisely the current form of industrial society that makes our predicament inescapable.


Rising costs, shortages curb rush to cash in on oil boom

RISING drilling and rig costs, combined with shortages of skilled staff and equipment, are affecting hydrocarbon projects throughout the Middle East, with some being delayed and other contracts being renegotiated.

Producers in the region, from Libya to Saudi Arabia, have embarked on ambitious plans to increase production and capacity to meet growing global demand and take advantage of record oil prices. But many will struggle to meet their schedules, experts say, and can expect to pay exorbitant prices if they are to ensure they have the material and personnel in a market suffering severe constraints.

"It's having an impact and that impact is going to increase over the next few years. We are seeing projects being delayed simply because they can't get the equipment delivered on the timescale they used to," says Candida Scott, an analyst at Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera).


Tidelands Oil & Gas Corporation Receives Funding Commitment for Burgos Hub Export/Import Project

Tidelands Oil & Gas Corporation today announced that it has entered into an agreement with Cheniere Energy, Inc. to fund the development of Tidelands' Burgos Hub Export/Import Project, which potentially will connect the North American pipeline grid to natural gas supplies and markets in northern Mexico.


Pemex, Shell to share productivity know-how

Mexican state oil monopoly Pemex said on Thursday it had signed a collaboration agreement with Royal Dutch Shell to pool research and know-how to help them improve production yields.


BP to Apply Alaska Skills in Arctic Deal with Rosneft

BP PLC (BP) wants to apply the skills it gained in its Alaskan work on a deal with Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft (ROSN.RS), for exploration and production in the Russian Arctic, the head of exploration and production for BP said in a speech last week that was closed to the press but released on the company's Web site Tuesday.


How much money is Indian Oil losing on fuel sales?

Oil giant Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) on Friday said the company is losing a whopping amount of Rs 90-100 crore per day thanks to the subsidized fuel sales.


Chevron: Abiding by International, Kazakh Sulfur Rules

The top official of the Chevron Corp.-led (CVX) oil consortium in Kazakhstan said Thursday the group is complying fully with international and Kazakh regulations on sulfur disposal.

...The consortium has been fighting off Kazakh government accusations that the group has been remiss in its environmental responsibilities in the Central Asian country.


Is Ethanol the 'Energy Security' Solution?

But is ethanol a truly renewable energy source, and is it more secure and dependable than oil? The answer to both of those questions, surprisingly, is no.


Agro-fooling ourselves

EU and US targets and subsidies are fuelling a growing demand for ‘agrofuels’. Far from being a sustainable energy source, the increased cultivation of crops for fuel threatens the world’s poor with starvation, damages biodiversity and even contributes to global warming.


Green fuels will save the earth - or not

The earth is too small to accommodate all the biofuels projects envisioned for the globe, and this raises doubts whether green fuels will ever play a big role in weaning the world off crude oil.


For some, Rideshare is the only way to go

At $20.50 a week for the van ride, Hiller figures she comes out way ahead on gas and vehicle maintenance. And what she loses in independence by not driving alone, she makes up for in lower stress by not fighting traffic on U.S. 12.


Forget Your Silver Bullet

US Task Force finds unconventional fuels from tar sands to shale oil will make little contribution to future energy needs.

While there are no known proponents of "peak oil" to be found among the senior task force members, nonetheless, Volume One of "America's Strategic Unconventional Fuels" reads as if it might have been produced by the Association of the Study of Peak Oil. There are references to M. King Hubbert and energy return on energy invested (EROI).


US oil refinery plans may hit Europe fuel exports

An expected wave of expansions at United States refineries could reduce demand for fuel imports from Europe, which supplies a tenth of US petrol, traders and analysts say.


Baker Hughes Reports Increase In Rig Count For September

Baker Hughes Inc. announced a sequential as well as year over year increase in international rig count for September. While US rig counts declined sequentially and increased year-over-year.


Japan Finding It Hard to Tap Africa for Oil, Gas

Japan's government has sent delegations to African countries such as Angola and Madagascar in search of opportunities for exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas as part of efforts to increase its energy stakes while diversifying its sources of energy supplies.

But getting into the upstream businesses there seems mostly difficult due to intensifying competition with other countries, especially China, said a senior official at Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.


Venezuelan Congress Approves New Orinoco Oil Venture Deals

Venezuela's congress on Tuesday approved brand new joint venture contracts signed between state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, PdVSA, and foreign oil companies involved in the Orinoco river belt, among other projects.


Why the end of cheap oil could spell death to suburbia

Will much of American suburbia become the “new slums” peopled by the “new and impoverished proletariat”, while others scramble to escape? Are we soon going to be talking about America’s “former middle class”? To quote Sam Goldwyn, it’s a “definite maybe.”

How come? At its root, there’s a simple unvarnished fact. And it’s not about over-stretched borrowers. It’s a crude and brutal fact that the ‘cheap oil fiesta’ is over. And what exactly is the problem? It’s this. Americans remain oblivious to the red light on the fuel gauge, and the long and short of it is that the whole suburban phenomenon was and is built around the car, and the central dogma that oil will remain abundant and cheap for ever and anon. Upon that is predicated the system that has sustained the daily lives of the vast bulk of Americans - the ‘American dream’ - since the late 1940s.


Oil produces expensive Caesar salad

And in MoneyWeek.com, I was captivated by their headline, "Why the end of cheap oil could spell death to suburbia", which is oddly reminiscent of Jim Kunstler's The Long Emergency. As the editor-in-chief around here, I find that I disagree with the use of the word "could" to describe the probabilities of the phrase "death to suburbia" when oil (and thus gasoline) get to be horrendously expensive, the economy is in the toilet and nobody makes enough money to buy the energy necessary to ride around in their cars when they can't even afford to keep their damned little houses warm in the winter!


Valero's Port Arthur Refinery to Shut Units for Maintenance

Valero Energy Corp., the largest U.S. refiner, said it shut unspecified units at its Port Arthur plant for "planned catalyst maintenance."


Wilmington refinery closes after outage

A Wilmington oil refinery has been shut down since Wednesday because of complications resulting from a power outage that the Department of Water and Power has been unable to explain.

...ConocoPhillips spokesman Andy Perez said he did not know when the facility would resume operation. It can take days for the complicated refining process to be restarted after such a long electrical disruption, he said.


Oil shipments to Ukrainian refineries down 6.4% in Sept

Oil shipments to oil refineries in Ukraine dropped 6.4% in September to 1.119 million tonnes, a source in the Fuel and Energy Ministry told Interfax.


Nigeria military: Kidnapped Briton freed

Nigerian troops freed a kidnapped British oil worker during a dawn raid Friday on the outskirts of the country's oil industry hub of Port Harcourt, a military spokesman said.


UK: £1-a-litre is defended

The petrol station boss who sent diesel through the £1 barrier this week insisted today: “I am not robbing anybody – I am just surviving.”


Expo's growth mirrors boom in ecofriendly building techniques

A decade after the first Green Building Expo played to about 600 people, this year's event is expected to draw up to 12,000 people, or double last year's attendance.


Thomas Homer-Dixon: A Swiftly Melting Planet

THE Arctic ice cap melted this summer at a shocking pace, disappearing at a far higher rate than predicted by even the most pessimistic experts in global warming. But we shouldn’t be shocked, because scientists have long known that major features of earth’s interlinked climate system of air and water can change abruptly.

A big reason such change happens is feedback — not the feedback that you’d like to give your boss, but the feedback that creates a vicious circle. This type of feedback in our global climate could determine humankind’s future prosperity and even survival.


Bush's good idea on global warming

Imagine this: The Republican governor of a large, trendsetting state works with leaders of his state legislature from both parties to enact groundbreaking legislation that requires private corporations and others operating in the state to meet stringent pro-green goals. Is this Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, 2007? It could be. But it could also be Gov. George W. Bush in Texas, 1999. The Renewable Portfolio Standards Act adopted by Texas that year required the state's energy retailers to produce 5,000 megawatts of electricity from renewable sources by 2015.


Indonesia aims to plant 79 million trees

Indonesia, which is losing its forests faster than any other country, hopes to plant 79 million trees in a single day ahead of a major U.N. climate change meeting this year, a forestry ministry spokesman said Friday.


Finland, Finland, Finland, it's the country for me

The Nordic countries are the world's greenest and, despite the cold winters, Finland is the best country to live in, according to a Reader's Digest study released on Friday.

Finland was followed by Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Austria.

"Finland wins high marks for air and water quality, a low incidence of infant disease and how well it protects citizens from water pollution and natural disasters," the study said.


Britain near the bottom of the table for energy efficiency

Britain came behind Ireland (7th), France (16th) and even the United States (23rd) in the study carried out by US environmental economist Matthew Kahn using the UN 2006 Human Development Index and the 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index.


Official says US will regulate carbon

The United States is moving toward the regulation of carbon emissions, a U.S. energy official said Thursday, despite the Bush administration's adherence to a voluntary approach to controlling the primary gas blamed for climate change.


Democrats eye key climate summit

A team of leading US Democrats is planning to send a delegation to a key UN climate conference to rival President Bush's official team.

They are so frustrated by Mr Bush's refusal to support US emissions cuts that they will travel to Bali to set out their alternative vision.


Climate activists tipped for peace prize

Former Vice President Al Gore and other campaigners against climate change lead experts' choices for the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, an award once reserved for statesmen, peacemakers and human rights activists.

A new Finance Round-Up by ilargi has been posted at TOD:Canada.

We have a 'luxury' problem today. Not only was Thursday Stoneleigh's birthday, at least 4 articles deserve our top spot. And there's much more.

Highly regarded finance writer Mike 'Mish' Shedlock has a list that looks like "Peak oil survival guide Part 1":

Drowning in Debt - How do we protect ourselves?

Don't Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford (classic SNL video)
• Have a Years' Worth of Living Expenses in Cash
• Buy Food On Sale
• Consider Wants vs. Needs vs. Affordability
• Reduce Leverage
• Consider Retirement Plans
• Challenge Traditional Thinking

And this House testimony by Robert Kuttner is a must read:

The Alarming Parallels Between 1929 and 2007

Your predecessors on the Senate Banking Committee, in the celebrated Pecora Hearings of 1933 and 1934, laid the groundwork for the modern edifice of financial regulation. I suspect that they would be appalled at the parallels between the systemic risks of the 1920s and many of the modern practices that have been permitted to seep back in to our financial markets.

Tighter credit regulations? It's only gotten worse!:

Subprime Delinquencies Accelerating

Subprime mortgage bonds created in the first half of 2007 contain loans that are going delinquent at the fastest rate ever.

"It's shocking what you see,'' said Kyle Bass of Hayman Advisors LP. "Anything securitized in 2007 has got to have the worst collateral performance of any trust I've seen in my life.''

And the icing on the cake:

The Death Of Investment
THE GREATEST STOCK MARKET MANIA OF ALL TIME

By comparing how swiftly money passes through stocks in relation to both gross domestic product (GDP) and total stock market capitalization, we can see how the relative importance of the stock market rises and falls over the course of the last 80 years.

Quite obviously, in 1929, nothing was more important than stocks and when the corresponding mania peaked, trading was 133% of gross domestic product stock market and 228% of total stock market capitalization. In 2000, trading was 328% of gross domestic product and 203% of total stock market capitalization, a mania fully equivalent to the madness of the "Roaring Twenties."

Today, trading is 326% of gross domestic product and 237% of total stock market capitalization. For all intents and purposes, the current environment represents the greatest velocity of trading ever seen. However, by the end of the year, we expect that the current stats will be far more extreme, a bizarre circumstance that lends itself to only one description - a continuing stock market mania, the greatest mania of all time.

From July to August, in the span of just one month, the New York Stock Exchange reported that the monthly total for dollar trading volume had risen 21.7%. Share volume surged 29.7%. The number of trades soared 39.6% . The sheer speed at which our capital markets are evolving and metamorphosing is frightening.

The theme of investment is for all intents and purposes, dead.

Re Consider retirement plans.

I got this phonecall last week, some telemarketeer, informing me that I would have only 70% of my present income when retiring. I basically told him: I'm 37, what's your age? eehm 25, he replied. Me: and you think we will ever retire?
Silence. End of discussion. I'm pretty sure I ruined his day:-)

yes, every article i read on retirement planning uses some % of current income as a basis for figuring retirement funding requirements. how very simple minded. the model assumes that you will stack up chips until you reach retirement age ("invested" in mutual funds of course) and then spend all of it, and if you have done your planning correctly you will run out of money on the day you die. how morbid! as if you are not a valid human being if you dont consume 65% or 70% or 85% as much as you did while working.
myself i plan to retire from my day job at the end of this construction season but i dont plan to quit working or investing.

By the way, your "death of investment" link is dead.

Thanks, fixed it.

Mind boggeling stats on China consumption over at Foratv

China and the Competition for Energy Resources

http://fora.tv/2007/09/11/China_and_the_Competition_for_Energy_Resources

Dr. Robert Ebel, Dr. David Finkelstein, and Ambassador Chas. Freeman will explore how China's quest for energy resources has had an impact on the developing world, and how its competition for these resources is affecting its relationship with other countries. What are the implications of China's quest for energy security? What are possible openings for international cooperation? - World Affairs Council of Washington D.C.

Who says investment is dead? I'm going to buy seed and check existing hand tools against what is needed for gardening. After that maybe more ammunition, more nonperishable food, and perhaps a few more jerrycans of gas.

If I get either of the two tech jobs open here in the region I'm going to promptly acquire a Yamaha Vino 125 for my commute.

My town will invest. If a business closes someone will put something in the space - I bet I can open a sustainable gardening shop in this town as long as I can pay the lights & heat for the space ... no rent required. Community investment at its finest ...

Someone here posted that a tractor can do an acre of planting in a few minutes but a human poking one seed in the ground at a time would take a week (estimates, for example's sake). This is just silly - the concept of intellectual property is still valid, but the nature of what is needed changes. The patent has elapsed on the little wood, metal, and leather gadget we use to stick sweet corn seeds in the ground and you can't find one unless you really hunt at estate auctions here ... this will be a needed device, easily made, and my investment for starting the seed poking widget factory will be along the lines of a pair of snips to cut leather, plus some stuff already in the wood shop. Research of history and repurposing of that which is already in place.

I'm expecting a property boom here for refugees, so I'm studying the locations and resources that are currently abandoned in my region ... it looks like a tumbledown farm, but its really a five acre parcel with a well, electric power, outbuildings suitable for animals and light manufacturing, and the local prefab building place can start making four hundred square foot cottages ...

http://flickr.com/photos/avyakata/sets/72157602211151483/map/

Investment isn't dead, but the scope will change dramatically, and the measure of value purely in terms of cash flow and liquidation value is gone.

I'm going for a 225cc Yamaha dual-purpose motorcycle, myself. It's an "offroad" bike that is also street legal. I want something that can handle the roads when they start getting really bumpy. Commuter scooters don't handle potholes very well. They stopped selling the 225CC model and the 2008 is a 250CC, however. More HP, but I'm sure slightly reduced MPG.
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

I can do $2,300 for a scooter, but an offroad will cost double that :-(

The Yamaha XT225 Serrow is a good motorcyle and will probably cost you less than that Vino if you can find one a little used. Especially over its lifetime as scooters tend to be a little shoddily built. You should also consider a Yamaha Virago 250, Virago 535, Honda rebel 250, Suzuki GS500, and Suzuki Savage LS650. All of those are well built and fairly light bikes, the GS500 is considered one of the best commuter motorcycles and all of them should be available for <$2,500 lightly used.

I've been thinking about a scooter or a light motorcycle for a
while and I was wondering about a sidecar attachment for carrying packages, people etc. Do they make the bike more or less stable? I rode a lot in my teenage years both on and off road but I don't relish the thought of the possibility of road
rash at my age (57)and am looking for a more stable ride. Actually I have been looking at those 3 wheel scooters on the net a lot. (the ones with the single drive wheel in back)

Yeah, baby, you want to buy one of my scootercarts!

I have been looking at two wheel rides and wondering how I'm going to use them to pull my kayak.

My kayak is a much abused Otter XT 9'6" (3m) recreational model. I like the Otter because its short, easy for one person to handle, and cheap ...

So I was envisioning a trailer with a 9' (3m) aluminum tube, a 36" (1M) crossbar, and large bicycle style wheels. There'd be one additional crossbar to stabilize the boat and it would ride low to the ground behind the scooter.

Now peak oil crazies who like to kayak is not a large demographic and this would obviously be a custom job, but I can't be the only one about to transition to two inexpensive wheels as transport.

I think there is probably a market for a shopping cart shaped contraption with two large, bicycle type wheels, the cart handle at the back having LED brake & turn signals embedded, and the hitch to the scooter in front being a fold down. Hook the cart to the scooter, off to the market, detach the cart from the scooter and use it for shopping, then reattach the cart and drive home. There'd have to be a plastic liner /w lid option for rainy/snowy weather and I could see all sorts of delivery businesses doing this.

The are legal, physics, and electrical interfacing concerns but I'm sure this already exists in other countries ... I just want to see a small shop in Iowa cranking them out ... more of that relocalization in action.

I've seen Harley's pulling trailers before, and they were not even trikes. You might have a harder time with the scooter, given the low displacement of them, but it would likely work if you're patient on the zero to fourty.

~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

The Harley carts are *big* and meant for long distance pulling. I want twenty five pounds of cart and fifty pounds of payload - no more than a good sized child worth of load. I worry about the aerodynamic issues - a semi going by when you've got one of these lightly loaded in the slow lane might be a little bit dicey.

My vehicle is a 250CC Honda "Big Ruckus"

I lash a 90 Liter plastic storage box (Rubbermaid "Action Packer")

which I have modified with some eye bolts for easier tie down, to the passanger seat when I need to move lots of stuff and it works fine

The bike gets about 68 miles to the US Gallon, and is fine on the highway in the slow lane (top speed is about 120 km/hr) though I usually stick to secondary highways rather than expressways

A mountain bike with full suspension and many padlocks, chains, a security guard to protect your bike and some guns. That should sort out the travel side of things:-)
Oh and 10 sets of spare bits with lots of puncture repair kits and a large garage protected by your security guard to keep all your spare kit in. And if i know youv'e got this stuff your security guard is dead meat - my maurauding band of mad-maxian styled noephyte bandits will take over your garden and pillage your 10years supply or grain!!!

Silly. That's what landmines are for!
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

Er, well, one of my recent "investments" is a Trek 8200 I think? Mountain bike I bought for $100 from a bum in downtown Prescott, I don't think it's stolen or, at least it's old enough that the original owner doesn't care. Really decent bike, with scratched/chipped paint for that battle-wise look. The word around here is the goat heads are so bad, the way to go is to get those "solid" tubes from Wal-Mart and just run those. Which I plan to. I can get around nice flat Chino Valley really well on something like that.

In the motorcycle area, the Vino 125 was one I was looking at, any Yammie 250 or so dual purpose bike will be good, and the Yam 250 Virago is a real winner. I was looking at financing one of those with insurance for $85 a month, of course the thing to do there is pay it off ASAP but that can get you out of your car and the car sold right away then put your car payments into paying off the bike.

A well cared for fairly modern bike will last a LONG time.

"A well cared for fairly modern bike will last a LONG time."

One word of caution...don't use synthetic oil (like Mobil 1, etc). Many well intentioned people seeking to keep their motorcycles running forever try to use synthetic oil in their bikes and it winds up getting into the clutch disk material (which resides in the crankcase and in the oil aka a "wet" clutch) and ruins it so that you'll have to replace the clutch pack. If you have a desire to use a synthetic, get a motorcycle specific oil from someone like Motul.

Also, if you're looking for the greatest longevity you should find a liquid-cooled bike. Air-cooled are great for their simplicity, but the tolerances have to be set much greater to compensate for the thermal swings they encounter - and then there are the thermal swings themselves. If you plan on sitting in stop and go traffic a lot...find something liquid cooled. Most air-cooled motorcycles will get pretty raggety by around 30,000 miles, and you might be able to coax 50 to 60,000 miles with exceptional care. Then you can either rebuild the engine or drop a new one in though rebuilding an air-cooled engine is fairly easy. Liquid cooled should last twice that, maybe more. Something extremely well built like a Goldwing can last 200k+ miles or more. Then there are air/oil cooled motors. There are varying types of air/oil cooling from light to full cooling by the oil, many Suzuki motors, some BMW, Ducati, and Victory use air/oil cooling. BMW's are a bit of a weirdo as it's generally accepted they can get well over 100,000 miles - crash bars recommended as the cylinders stick straight out the sides.

I should probably also note that many motorcycles are still carbureted and a bit uppity and you'll be a much happier owner if you're mechanically inclined enough to know when to put on/take off the choke ("cold start enricher"), look at the plugs to see how the mixture is, and know when something doesn't sound right.

The wet clutch thing is indeed an important detail to remember. I believe the problem is the additives that goes into most brands of auto motor oil to enhance lubrication: a good thing for the engine, but not so for the clutch, it's purpose afterall is to create friction between 2 or more discs so the power can be transferred to the gearbox.

But, but, but .... what if the marauding band of mad-maxian styled neophyte bandits all get malaria and really bad water and die before they can get going on a good run of pillaging and slaughter?

:) :) :)

What then,huh? --- Huh?

:) :) :)

I do think that all the tough-talking hard guys will melt in the face of disease, thirst, hunger, self-inflicted wounds, and of course the guns that others (also would-be hard guys) point in their general direction.

Back to the biking stuff -- it really works! If you can't do the HPV (Human Powered Vehicle) method, try some electric assist.

If that does not work, try the next step -- NEV with solar charging.

Or try a motorcyle or motorized trike. There are a variety of small motorised vehicles out there sufficient for local transportation of people and small loads of cargo.

If one truly needs to drive on the highway or haul really big loads, then it seems to me that the options are a bit more limited and the sustainable options might be a bit pricey.

Some folks do OK with biodiesel delivery vehicles "peace Coffee" here in minneapolis went from using bikes only to using a biodeisel truck when the routes just got to heavy and far-flung to make the bikes-only transport workable.

Here's a page on their van:

http://www.peacecoffee.com/van.htm

Here's one on pedal delivery:

http://www.peacecoffee.com/pedaling.htm

It takes a village to avoid pillage, and I guess we have to move around some of the categories in our minds before we can sustainably move ourselves and some stuff around.

...and so on, and so forth ....

I'd been looking at the Vino 125 ($2,300) but after reading this I started looking at the dual purpose ones. The places I go here are already pretty messy by urban standards, so I am thinking the wide tire TW200($3,500) might be the right thing. I do cringe at the 45 mpg it gets as opposed to the 125 mpg on the Vino, but you're right about road conditions ...

truly minimum maintenance

TW200 -

http://flickr.com/photos/fdrewett/54708371/

http://flickr.com/photos/rooibaard/911922149/

Ah yes, the SUB or sport utility bike is thus born. Quite why these things have to have such wide and clumsy tires is beyond me when a traditional dirt bike of early seventies vintage could race the length of Baja in less than 24 hours on a 3.00/21 front and a 4.00/18 rear. Unless you are living near a large sand dune which cannot be gotten around, the wide tires are just silly.

A 250cc motorcycle should be capable of an average 60 mpg or more; at low speeds the motor is way too big, but at higher speeds the cubic factor of wind resistance and the severely non aerodynamic nature of the plot makes the 250ccs work pretty hard.

Europe gets around just fine on 50cc mopeds. I've toured around Spain on 50cc machines and didn't find that my life was rendered incomplete by only going thirty or forty miles in an hour. The Honda Cub is still in production after nearly SIXTY years or continuous production. Must be a record. Viva Soichiro! Mind you, his design - and a lot of his others too - borrowed heavily from Italian designs of the early 50's, but he made it happen in the global marketplace.

Let's not forget that this little masterpiece was one of the first serious products exported from Japan after the war. Now if we could just come up with a diesel version running on chicken fat......with electric start, keyless entry and cupholders...no, wouldn't sell well in the Dakotas.

Here the TW200 gets sold to farmers who want them for utility use in their fields. I spend a lot of time outdoors and the added utility of 75cc more and tires and suspension to get into grubby places would serve me well. Urban SUV sales of any type are pretty much silly, but living here I could actually use one:

P9300015.JPG

minimum maintenance photostream

Having owned both the TW200 and XT225 Yamaha, I agree they're both great all-purpose, economical, low maintenance machines. The TW200 would be better if you need to deal with a lot of sand or mud. The XT225 is a better all around bike with enough power to haul a passenger and, with a milk crate on the back, you can pick up a week's worth of groceries. The roads down here in Central America are mostly pot-holed and the higher suspension of the 225 helps a lot with that, as well as handling the rough and rutted back roads. I usually get at least 100 km per gallon of regular gas. The 225 serves as a frequently used backup to my diesel Toyota pickup.

I agree with the XT225 over the fat-tired 200. I think it even gets a higher MPG due to the smaller rear tire compared to the 200.
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

Good thinking Tipper!

I too have altered how "investments" are thought of. My new retirement fund is a little online business selling manual gardening and farming tools that are used in other parts of the world - figuring that we may someday have a larger need of such things in the US than we do now. Fortunately even now they sell well enough to make it worthwhile.

The tools include a grub hoe, a fork hoe, a Italian grape hoe, and a Ridging hoe. A grub hoe will basically do what a rototiller does, plus do trenching. A grape hoe is for weeding large areas - like between row crops and in orchards and vineyards.

We used to use these tools in the USA back before tractors became common.

I'm always looking to expand the tool selection - if anybody has any other ideas please share. In a few months I should have some long-handled mattocks and picks which are easier for normal people to use than the common short-handled heavy-headed hardware store variety.

I'm arranging to get handles locally (Missouri has small-scale handle amnufacturers) and have been looking into small-scale forging if anybody has thoughts on that to share.

Greg in MO

I've been thinking a lot about that forging stuff - we're in an 8.0M/s wind zone and there are platoons of wind turbines everywhere. Among other things this town has there is a metal fab place - they make widgets that go on tractors for driving wooden fence posts and all sorts of other stuff. We'd only need one wind turbine to drive an electric forge and they could cast on days the wind was blowing and do finish work the rest of the time ...

Are you at the contact number right now? I'd like to chat ...