DrumBeat: October 4, 2007


OPEC September Oil Output Rose 270,000 Barrels, Survey Shows

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised production 0.9 percent in September, after members set new output targets at a meeting in Vienna, a Bloomberg News Survey showed.

OPEC pumped an average 30.615 million barrels a day last month, up 270,000 barrels from August, according to the survey of oil companies, producers and analysts. The 10 members with production quotas, all except Angola and Iraq, increased output by 155,000 barrels to 26.88 million barrels a day.

Ukraine starts reducing gas consumption

Ukraine has started reducing its consumption of natural gas supplied to the country by Gazprom, the Russian energy giant said Thursday.


Debunking auto industry myths

I hesitate to pick a fight with a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winner like New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman. On the critical issue of developing a national energy policy to lessen our consumption of imported oil, he's been early, smart, and right.

But Friedman whiffed in his Times column yesterday, called "Et Tu, Toyota," by hauling out one of the hoariest of urban myths: That forcing higher fuel economy standards on American car buyers is what's needed to encourage more energy-efficient vehicles and make Detroit more competitive with its import competitors.


Meeting the Challenge – Transport Expert Todd Litman: Alter Car Insurance & Save Oil, Lives, Environment

Litman calls it “Pay-As-You-Drive” pricing (PAYD). Simply put, the fewer miles you drive in a year’s time, the lower your annual car insurance premium. Litman argues that by making it pay – literally – for motorists to combine shopping trips, to carpool, and so on, the more likely it is that the family SUV stays in the garage, thereby not just reducing gasoline consumption but also air pollution and auto-related fatalities.

(See also: Get Paid for NOT Driving To Work (Part 2 of 3) and 'Congestion Pricing' to Include Entire Regions (Part 3 of 3))


Gazprom, Ukraine agree on payment of gas debt by Nov 1

OAO Gazprom said chief executive Alexei Miller and Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yury Boiko reached an agreement under which Ukraine's gas debts will be paid by Nov 1, Interfax reported.


Alaska Oil Tax Draft Released

Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has released a bill proposing to boost oil taxes for the second straight year, setting the stage for a battle with major petroleum producers.


Venezuela crude for Dominican Republic to reach 50,000 barrels daily

Property minister Vicente Bengoa yesterday said the Venezuelan government extended the facilities so the country can import 50,000 barrels of oil daily through the Petrocaribe Agreement, which sets a preferential price and in soft, long term financing.


S.F. moving to catch up with European bike-share programs

San Francisco is one push of the pedal closer to offering residents and visitors a bike-sharing program in an effort to ease traffic congestion and to promote health through exercise.


ASES National Solar Tour Saturday, October 6, 2007

The National Solar Tour highlights energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies and methods that are working and available right now, in real places for real people. These sustainable energy choices help the owners reduce operating costs and improve comfort and health while investing in local communities.

Tours show attendees how home and building owners provide for their power needs from the sun, wind and other renewable sources. An increasing focus of tours is on saving energy through building design, energy-efficient appliances and building materials.


For solar power, the future looks bright

Solar energy is now very real. And at hot companies like SunPower, the 'green' that matters is money - by the billions.


Fuel Assistance program gets boost

According to a press release from the State Housing Authority, the federal Energy Information Administration projects that oil prices will increase by nearly 28 percent over last year, bringing the anticipated cost oil of heating oil to over $3 a gallon. At that cost, the average benefit buys roughly 193 gallons, less than the full capacity of most oil tanks.


Oil headed for era of price chaos

OIL PRICE VOLATILITY will be the least of our worries if one scenario Simon Ratcliffe paints has any weight. Ratcliffe is chairman of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil South Africa (Aspo), which has been studying the effects should a peak in oil production occur. He suggests peak oil production began this year, the implication of which is an interminable decline in supply followed by societal and economic disintegration.

And the much-vaunted solution – discovering and developing alternative energy sources – is but a mild palliative, says Ratcliffe. German organisation The Energy Watchgroup believes global coal resources will start to deplete by 2025, while uranium, one of the most commonly found minerals in the world, will reach peak production in 2013.


Peak oil educator to visit New Zealand

Richard Heinberg, one of the world's foremost Peak Oil educators and Research Fellow of Post Carbon Institute, is coming to New Zealand in October hosted by the Green Party and the Eco Show to give talks in Auckland, Wellington and Taupo.

"The end of cheap oil is a problem the world will have to face, and I am honoured to be able to host Richard Heinberg here at Parliament for a briefing to all MPs on this topic," Green Party Co-Leader Jeanette Fitzsimons says.


Crude awakening

Why aren't more people talking about the imminent oil supply crisis?


EU Gas Experts to Hold Emergency Meeting on Gazprom-Ukraine Row

The European Union is to hold an extraordinary meeting of national gas experts to discuss the dispute between Ukraine and Russian gas monopoly Gazprom, officials said Wednesday.


Ukraine Denies Gas Debt to Gazprom

Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko says Ukraine does not owe money to Russia's state-owned natural gas company Gazprom.


Pakistan: No more increase in LPG price, govt directs OGRA

To provide relief to common man in the holy month of Ramazan, the government has directed the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (OGRA) to maintain the current LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) price despite the fact that internationally the prices of LPG have increased by 15 percent.


Pakistan: Capped LPG rate irks some, amuses others

As a Pakistan dominated association of LPG marketing companies on Wednesday hailed government for not passing on the international fuel hike to consumers, Shell Gas said such a swift policy shift could jeopardize its future investment plan. The decision to continue September’s Saudi Aramco Contact Price (CP) into October can not be sustained over a longer period of time, Fauzia Kazmi, CEO Shell Gas told The News.


ConocoPhillips: Yanbu Refinery Study Seen Done By Early '08

ConocoPhillips (COP) said Wednesday it expects a detailed evaluation of the proposed development of a refinery in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia, to be completed by early next year.


Australia 'falling behind' on renewable energy

Australia is falling behind countries like Germany and China, and the US state of California in terms of the proportion of electricity it generates from renewable energy, the Australian Conservation Foundation said yesterday.

"Surely we can do so much better with solar power here. It just makes common sense, but we need government leadership," ACF executive director Don Henry said in Brisbane.


Huge wind farm spinning in Colorado

One of the largest wind farms in the country has begun operating in north-central Weld County. The $500 million project in Grover is expected to generate enough electricity to serve 90,000 houses.


US trumps states over siting power lines

Huge transmission lines could soon skirt Civil War battlegrounds, historic districts, and the Appalachian Trail following a federal order that designates national corridors in two key regions of the United States with fast-growing electricity needs.


Will biofuel leave the poor hungry?

It is one of the most hotly debated environmental topics of the year - whether the drive to produce alternative so-called green fuels will take food from the mouths of the hungry.


Warning on danger of biofuels

ENVIRONMENTAL hopes for biofuels as an alternative to fossil fuels are premature, if not misplaced, a scientist at the Greenhouse 2007 conference says.

Many of the plants being promoted as biofuel "miracle plants" were weeds that would create ecological devastation, said Tim Low, the co-author of a report released yesterday.

"This is just like the hype that went into cane toads in the 1930s," Mr Low said. "It doesn't have any proven value as an agricultural crop."


U.S. Economic Energy Intensity: Why $80 oil hasn't impacted our economy, but why $162 oil will

With oil north of $80 a barrel it seems appropriate to revisit another conundrum facing economists, which is why high energy prices have yet to derail the economy. Many economists and analysts have estimated that high oil prices would lead to demand destruction and dent economic activity. Back in 2005 oil jumped to $60 a barrel and then even over $70 a barrel with hurricanes Katrina and Rita, and yet the resilient U.S. economy continued chugging along.


The Peak Oil Crisis: On Contemplating $100 Oil

For the last few days, the press has been full of stories about the possibility of oil reaching $100 a barrel this winter. As prices have been bouncing around in the low $80s for the last couple of weeks, another $20 increase will do it. The theory behind the $100 forecast is that supply and demand is very tight and that China, India and oil-exporting countries are growing their domestic consumption so fast that even if the U.S. goes into a recession the situation will continue to tighten.

Throw in increased interest by speculators, the sagging dollar, soaring coal prices and $100 oil this winter is starting to look like a good bet — even without hurricanes or terrorist attacks. A couple of writers have even noticed that world oil production has not increased for over a year now while demand continues to grow.


Shell takes gas station from hospitalized Marina hunger striker

A gas station operator on a hunger strike for three months to protest high fuel prices learned from his hospital bed that the Shell Oil Co. took legal control of his station.

Mehdi Shahbazi, 65, was hospitalized last week after several months of a liquids-only diet designed to highlight what he sees as a viselike grip major oil companies have on U.S. and world economies.


Governor: Solar, wind too expensive, so Idaho should focus on nukes

Idaho should bolster its ties to the nuclear power industry to underpin economic growth and curb greenhouse gas emissions because alternative energy sources like solar or wind are too costly to meet the state's future needs, Gov. C.L. "Butch" Otter said Tuesday.


Analysis: Yemen, Jordan hope for nuclear

Deals to build nuclear power plants in Yemen and Jordan have come sooner than many expected, but a lack of funding and internal violence could derail those plans before they ever get off the ground.


Clean energy can't meet growing demand

Demand for renewable energy is outstripping supply, pushing up prices and raising the specter that some states may not meet clean-energy mandates.


Toyota's environmental image challenged

Environmental groups, led by the Natural Resources Defense Council, are challenging Toyota Motor Corp.'s opposition to strict fuel economy standards pending in Congress, a position the Japanese company shares with General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC.


Richard Heinberg: As the world burns

Maybe the best place to start is with a general comment. It’s getting pretty damn obvious that the world is sliding head-first into the abyss at an accelerating rate, with most Americans as oblivious as ever. The latest indication of impending doom is a festering credit crunch brought on by the inevitable puncturing of a bubble puffed up over the past few years through the issuance of thousands of patently idiotic subprime, adjustable-rate, and interest-only mortgage loans.


Slippery slope

More and more oil executives maintain that there are just a few years left before production reaches its peak, and that we are sleepwalking into economic catastrophe. David Strahan reports on dwindling global reserves.


Saudi oil exports may fall to $165 bn: Bank

Saudi oil exports this year may fall as much as 12 per cent from last year's record to $165 billion as the world's largest oil exporter restricts production as part of OPEC quotas, an HSBC Holdings Plc affiliate said.

Average production may fall as much as 6 percent to 8.65 million barrels per day, while the average price of Saudi crude could be $59 per barrel, close to last year's record of $60.50, Riyadh-based SABB bank said in a report on the Saudi economy.


Saudi slashes crude prices to Europe

Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia slashed its November official crude selling prices to Europe, but raised them for Asian customers, traders said on Wednesday.


Persian Gulf Oil-Tanker Rates May Slip on OPEC Output Concern

The cost of shipping Middle East crude to Asia, the world's busiest market for supertankers, may fall for a sixth day, a sign some shipowners believe OPEC will renege on a pledge to boost crude oil production next month.


BP set to cut jobs in Asia: source

BP is set to cut jobs in Asia, an industry source said on Wednesday, as the oil giant braces for weak third quarter results.


Politics hurt Kuwait's progress to 2020 oil target

A political standoff in Kuwait has delayed progress on projects to boost oil output and left the world's seventh-largest oil exporter struggling to meet its 2020 output target of 4 million barrels per day (bpd).

The OPEC member's oil production capacity now stands at around 2.8 million bpd and is unlikely to be much more by the end of the next decade, analysts said.


Engineer shortage continues to hamper oil and gas production, report says

Even as energy demand skyrockets, the global production of oil and natural gas will be hampered in the coming years because of a shortage of engineers and other project managers, a new report says.


Big Oil not kidding about pulling out of Alberta

Canada's largest oil companies warned yesterday they are not making idle threats in the aftermath of public-opinion surveys showing Albertans think the sector is posturing when it says it will shift billions if the government imposes higher taxes and royalties.


Texas awards rights for offshore wind farm

A Louisiana company was awarded leases to four tracts Tuesday in Texas' first open bidding for offshore wind power in the Gulf of Mexico.


From the air, the evidence of climate change is striking

Flying low, fast and north into the interior, the mind's eye expects a scene of endless winter but the reality is worryingly different. There is little to prepare you for the summer spectacle of Greenland's fjords. It feels like a confusion of geography. At once as familiar as Scottish lochs, they present a problem of scale. The dark mountains that frame the deep lakes rise so high that they push through the cloud clover and on to snow caps that are rarely if ever seen from the shore. And then there are the icebergs, floating in brilliant white squadrons, trailing pale tails of melt water for miles behind.

But on the shore this is now a genuinely green land. One where Arctic barley, radishes and potatoes are growing for the first time in centuries.


Record 22C temperatures in Arctic heatwave

Parts of the Arctic have experienced an unprecedented heatwave this summer, with one research station in the Canadian High Arctic recording temperatures above 20C, about 15C higher than the long-term average. The high temperatures were accompanied by a dramatic melting of Arctic sea ice in September to the lowest levels ever recorded, a further indication of how sensitive this region of the world is to global warming. Scientists from Queen's University in Ontario watched with amazement as their thermometers touched 22C during their July field expedition at the High Arctic camp on Melville Island, usually one of the coldest places in North America.


EPA asked to regulate ship emissions

Environmental groups and California Attorney General Jerry Brown asked the federal government Wednesday to require oceangoing ships to limit emissions of heat-trapping gases blamed for global warming.


Sacrifices today will stop a barren future

A 5C increase in temperature in Australia - which would be accompanied by thousands of heatwave deaths, incredible strain on the public health system, diminishing food stocks and destroyed livelihoods - could be stopped.

But in the past three months, two massive new coal mines have been approved in NSW. The burning of fossil fuels is the biggest contributor to the man-made increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

A new Energy and Environment Round-Up has been posted at TOD:Canada.


Macleans: Alberta stands accused
A huge fight between East and West -- over the oil sands -- is just starting


Left unfettered, Alberta's energy sector will, by the end of this century, transform the southern part of the province into a desert and its north into a treeless, toxic swamp. Driven both by global warming and oil and gas developments, temperatures in Alberta will soar by as much as eight degrees. The Athabasca River will slow to a trickle, parching the remainder of the province's forests and encouraging them to burst into flame, generating vast quantities of CO2. "They're going to be the architects of their own destruction," says journalist William Marsden, whose new book outlines the environmental threats posed by Alberta's energy industry.

Even now, fish pulled from the Athabasca downstream of the oil sands taste of gasoline and smell of burning galoshes in the fry pan. The landscape is perforated by more than 300,000 oil and gas wells. Water in some areas to the south can be set alight with a match, likely due to coal-bed methane developments. Doctors administering to Aboriginal communities not far from the oil sands report high rates of thyroid conditions and rare diseases such as cancer of the bile duct. Some from those communities have been employed at the oil sands raking in the carcasses of ducks floating on vast pools of rotten water, the by-product of the sands' oil-extraction methods.

Such are the claims contained in Marsden's upcoming Stupid to the Last Drop: How Alberta is Bringing Environmental Armageddon to Canada (And Doesn't Seem to Care), which presents a scenario almost too frightening to contemplate and suggests Alberta may already be too far gone for redemption -- indeed, that it is environmentally doomed. "When you start digging up an area equivalent to the state of Florida, when you start carpet-bombing your province with oil and gas wells, and at the same time, you've got global warming drying up the glaciers and your rivers -- you're kind of looking at a doomsday scenario," he says. "It sounds bizarre, but it's an absolute possibility that they could be literally destroying themselves."

If 'they' are destroying themselves, who's paying for it? Who's the guilty party here, the consumer or the provider, the john or the prostitute? The fix isn't in Alberta, but sitting in our driveways.

Drought and Aussie coal exports...in soccer this would be called an 'own goal'.

Hey folks how about giving my good friend some traffic.
He and his wife just released their new CD.

One song for TOD is called:

Gas Pump Blues

http://profile.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=user.viewprofile&friendi...

I turned him on to Peak Oil, and all the other related issues. He and his wife wrote the song.

Forrest used to be a Session Guitarist for MussleShoals Recording studio. Everytime you hear Bob Seger's "Old Time Rock and Roll" (Song from Dirty Business) you are hearing Forrest's Lead Guitar Solo.

So give the song a listen to. Heck Buy the song and/or CD some great Country Blues for you this morning.

TIA

John

Nice song. Awesome guitar in the background - got the classic painting from our national epos on it! The bad witch of the north is trying to steal the Sampo, or the Finnish equivalent of cornucopia from the mighty wizard Väinämöinen. Cool.. Stealing our cornucopian dream.. :-)

- Jay from Finland

PS I guess it's Muscle Shoals - Wilson Pickett etc..

"If we lose the forests, we lose everything"
- Bill Mollison

hhehe nice tune thx "what can we do, ..say or.. turn ....when we've got the gas-pump blues ... those freak'in gas willies.."?

When I first started reading this site, I referred it to a PO denier as counterpoint. He replied that he tried reading this site, but found it to be an 'oil company tout' blog. Well, I'm thinking that the charge shouldn't be limited to oil companies.

-
James Gervais

"... but found it to be an 'oil company tout' Well, I'm thinking that the charge shouldn't be limited to oil companies. "

If you are saying that it is a commercial plug for an album. Well, what can I tell you.

I have been Peak Oil aware for 6+ years. In that time I have reached out to everyone I know to try to awaken them to it. One good friend that I have known for 20 years GOT IT. Him and his wife wrote a song about it.

We (at TOD) reference and plug other Peak Oil Sites. They're even listed on the right side of this page. We reference Articles about Peak Oil everyday.

I thought some of the community would appreciate one of our own writing something about it.

Sorry you saw it as crass commercialism. He probably won't even break even on producing the record in his basement by himself. No Record company, No million dollar contract.

So EXCUSE ME.

Rant *OFF

One guy's interpretation of peak oil expressed in a song is like promoting oil co's? Get a life and be less 'sceptical' of other people's intentions.

A 72 degree summer day on Melville Island?

http://www.oceandots.com/arctic/canada/melville.htm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melville_Island,_Canada

One day we'll be feeding the last remaining deniers to the last remaining polar bears ... and that day isn't far off.

Notice how you don't hear "record heat" anymore?

And yet 2007 is on track for hottest year ever.

Every forecasting model is being exceeded.

Forget any report mentioning 2050 or 2100.

We'll be there by 2015.

"One scientist came back from the North Pole and reported that it was raining there, said David Carlson, the director of International Polar Year, the effort to highlight the climate issues of the Arctic and Antarctic. "It makes you wonder whether anyone has ever reported rain at the North Pole before."

Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens

Oh, look, swimming at the North Pole.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1szqfXouPOk

I concur on the 2015 estimate. They need to throw out the linear models...Gaia is non-linear and chaotic.

The U.S., Canada, Russia, and Denmark are not fiddling around in the Arctic for something that'll come to pass in a hundred years. We know ice extent from satellite photos but the total volume is key.

The ice pack used to have a 3m average thickness in the 1950s, then I saw a report of 2m in the nineties, and recently there was a link here indicating its down to 1m. That million square kilometer breakup wasn't melting exactly, it was ice too thin to stand wave action coming apart ...

We've had decades of the sea ice extent dropping 500,000 km^2/decade ... and the predictions of an ice free arctic in 2100 were based on a simple, linear forward assessment, starting with 5,000,000 km^2 in the 1990s. If we stick to this approach ... ice free in 2011.

No more polar bears :-( Will the end of this iconic species be the wakeup call we need, or will we have already descended into our own personal misery? I keep looking at that housing thing and I'm thinking "personal misery", but I'm kind of a doomer like that ...

Hi SacredCowTipper

This presumed climat change to a warmer climat, is just perfect for us living near the arctic circle. There is a silver lining everywere.

Then the fall out could be that a lot of useless eaters in the southern third world would die-off. Just as the illuminatis is planning with their biofuel production efforts, so that the food production will fall down.

Interesting times we live in indeed.

The silver lining of cheap energy is vanishing with little bias. Sweden is not entropy independent. Will your paradise welcome the millions of refugees less fortunate to the South/lowlands? Time to start building a wall. Overpopulation can quickly pillage your resources, too.

You're suggesting they do a whole lot of maintenance on the DaneVirke in short order, eh?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danevirke

No we will ceartainly not welcome millions of refugees, and so will no other northern countrys like Finland and Norway do.

Personal but On-Topic Questions

I have decided to set up a personal website to refer questioners at ASPO-Houston to with many of my ideas (a North American non-GHG grid, etc.)

Someone offered to set one up for me earlier. If they would reply, I would appreciate it.

Also, what to call the website ?

I want more than Electrification of Transportation because my vision goes beyond that.

POandGWSolutions.com would be close to what I want, but it is FAR too long !

Any suggestions ?

Thanks and Best Hopes for Short Webnmes,

Alan

Maybe (just thought of this) PeakOilHope.com ?

Forthesakeoffuturegenerations.com

Hi Alan,

I picked up electricrailnow.com and electricrailnow.info for you a few weeks back.

As mentioned, if you need it, we could host it on my servers.

Let me know.

peakguy at rogers dot com

1) Back to the Future
2) The Trolley Car
3) Hot Wheels

subtitle:

The Electrification of Transportation in an age of Climate Change and Peak Oil

or

The Electrification of Transportation as a Rational Response to Climate Change and Peak Oil or

POfix.org
or
FixPO.org

5 characters. Not .coms but its much easier to get .orgs and its generally more appropriate.

I am not sure that I am an org. But am I a com ?

Good ideas,

Alan

Alan:

.info might be the best choice

I vote for .com. A lot of politically-oriented types who don't feel they are .com or .org choose .net instead, but that's not really what .net is supposed to be for. (Not that that really matters.)

But I say stick with .com. You want a name that is easy to remember. And 9 times out of 10, people will put .com at the end of it, no matter what name you choose. If you choose .net or .info or .org, you'll have to buy the .com too, or risk people going to the wrong site. Which will probably be hosting a porn site.

Ditto everything that Leanan said - if you can, register all the top level domains (com, net, info, org, whatever) that are available for the name you want. It's not that expensive, and will make things a lot easier.

As someone who's on the internet for a serious fraction of every day... I can't remember the last time I typed something in ending with .info. Infact, I can't remember ever doing it.

You should take .org and .com. You can maintain just one website and then point the others to the main website. The more names you have the better. The cost to own multiple websites is very minimal, so grab 'em up.

PeakTO, that is very generous of you to host Alan's site. That's usually the expensive part of maintaining a website -- after the cost of paying a person to design it.

That's usually the expensive part of maintaining a website -- after the cost of paying a person to design it.

Not always, get hosted in Switzerland for a pittance 10€ , 50Gb storage space, unlimited bandwidth (!).
Been hosted there for 3 years, no problems, though I don't use much bandwidth.

You should take .org and .com. You can maintain just one website and then point the others to the main website. The more names you have the better. The cost to own multiple websites is very minimal, so grab 'em up.

For any names you think you'll use, grab com, org, net, info and as many others as you can afford. It's hugely irritating when someone buys one of the others to capitalize on what you are doing - and it happens.

.org is usually viewed as a non profit making organisation - as opposed to .com which is usually a commercial concern.

Of course most of that goes by the wayside in the dotcom feeding frenzy as everyone focuses on the .com. However .org is probably second in the recognition stakes and some very well known sites use it (eg slashdot.org)

The very major advantage is you can find 4 and 5 letter names, which you are unlikely to do for .com

Classically, .orgs are non-profits. Are you running a non-profit or planning to do so? This doesn't even matter if you personally are employed by a for-profit corporation as long as the organization represented by the website is a .org. Of course that is the classical interpretation of .org and no one really enforces it but that is how it is viewed generally. You might try something like electrifiedplanet.org, for instance, or one of the many good names suggested by others here as well, just using the .org suffix.

"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone

NoMoreKatrinas.com

GetOutOfTheCar.com

ElectronsForOil.com

RantandRail.com

RationOil-Thinking.org

grabthethirdrail.com