DrumBeat: October 3, 2007


Hefty GM hybrids could boost automaker

General Motors took a major step forward last week in its bid to boost its fading fortunes, but it’s probably not the one you’re thinking of.

True, GM clinched a new four-year labor contract with striking United Auto Workers that, if ratified by union members, could put the automaker on more even footing with its Asian rivals. But in a less noticed-move that ultimately could prove nearly as important, GM provided new details about the industry's first full-size hybrid gas-and-electric-powered sport utility vehicles, which will appear on dealers’ lots in late December.

Global warming expert James Hansen addresses Nobel Conference

He used charts with measurements and calculations to show how the ice sheet disintegration at the poles will speed up and likely raise sea levels to depths not seen for millions of years.

Hansen says that would threaten the east and southeast coasts of the U.S., nearly obliterating Florida. European cities like Amsterdam and Copenhagen will also be threatened, along with the coast of China and almost all of Bangladesh.


Kentucky: Gas Gouging Lawsuit Goes To State Court

Attorney General Stumbo's suit charges that Marathon and Speedway SuperAmerica violated Kentucky's price gouging law and Consumer Protection Act during the state of emergency following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. Kentucky is the first state in the nation to file suit protecting its citizens against price gouging by a major oil company.


ConocoPhillips sees production drop

Integrated oil giant ConocoPhillips said Wednesday it expects to report sharply lower refining margins during the third quarter, even as it enjoys near-record high crude prices.

The company said it produced the equivalent of 180,000 barrels of oil less last quarter than it did in the second quarter. It attributed the declines to the seizure of its Venezuela operations, damage to a pipeline in the United Kingdom, and planned work stoppages at other facilities.


India: Oilcos told to share cost of terror security

Private oil companies on undersea oil hunt will have to share the government's cost of providing security to men and infrastructure such as floating platforms and specialised vessels they deploy off India's shores.

The government's decision comes in the wake of mounting terror threats, which have made guarding the country's offshore assets an expensive proposition as more and more firms set sail in search of hydrocarbons treasure.


Great awakening ahead for gas guzzlers

As Americans surveyed the damage wrought by hurricane Katrina in 2005, Bill Ford Jr, then Ford Motor’s chief executive, made a dramatic speech declaring a national energy crisis. With much of the Gulf of Mexico’s oil infrastructure knocked out, he called for a White House summit of oil and automotive bosses for a national dialogue on energy security.

Politicians and industry, in spite of graphic evidence of the costs of the US’s carbon-intensive economy to human life and their own profits, did not respond, least of all to calls for a petrol tax. Two years later, gasoline remains the cheapest liquid on sale at most American filling stations, costing less per gallon than milk, coffee or mouthwash.


It's the Oil and Gas, Stupid

World leaders may be condemning the junta's crackdown, but foreign businesses don't want to lose their pieces of Burma's energy pie. Why the latest sanctions are unlikely to work.


Inflation and the Federal Reserve

The most predominant type of inflation is natural and occurs as raw materials are used up and must be replenished. It’s akin to the law of diminishing returns, or entropy, and is overcome by technological innovation. Another type of inflation is expressed through constantly changing conditions of supply and demand, including the fluctuating cost of labor. Yet another type results from the predatory pricing practices of monopolies such as the worldwide oil cartel which has jacked up the cost of petroleum to over $80 a barrel.


Zambia: State Assures Nation of Quick Action On Petrol

ENERGY and Water Development Minister, Kenneth Konga, yesterday assured the nation that the Government was working hard to ensure that authorities start pumping the 60,000-tonnes crude oil from Tanzania to Zambia to end the fuel shortage that has hit parts of the country.


ICA Fluor To Build 2 Pemex Platforms As Oil Drilling Rises

Mexico's total number of oil and gas rigs was 85 in August, up sharply from 76 in the same period of 2006, according to Baker Hughes, an oil services firm that monitors the global rig market. Mexico's active oil rigs reached 69 in July, the highest number since Baker Hughes began collecting rig data in 1995.

Tax reforms in 2006 freed up extra capital for the company to invest in exploration and production.


Jamaica: Energy plans key to economic growth

Were the US economy to return to stronger growth, we could well see oil prices reaching to over US$90 per barrel which some analysts had forecasted. We should therefore accelerate efforts to address Jamaica's energy situation.


Kazakhstan fines Chevron oil venture over ecology

Kazakh Ecology Minister Nurlan Iskakov said on Wednesday the government has imposed a $609 million fine on the Chevron-led Tengizchevroil (TCO) oil venture over ecological and other violations.


Nigeria charges two Germans over oil delta images

Nigeria charged two German men on Wednesday with breaching its Official Secrets Act and endangering national security by taking photographs and video footage of oil facilities in the Niger Delta.


RFA: Cellulosic Ethanol Close to Becoming Reality

Seeking to educate Capitol Hill staff, administration officials and members of the media about the realities of cellulosic ethanol production in the United States, the Renewable Fuels Association today will host an education seminar entitled “Cellulosic Ethanol: The Future is Now.”


Diesel prices spike in North Dakota

North Dakota farmers and truck drivers are feeling the pinch of low diesel supplies and high prices.

The shortages have sent prices soaring. Diesel hit a record-high in Grand Forks over the weekend at about $3.42 per gallon.

“It’s killing me right now,” said Mike Kyle, who runs a small trucking business out of Langdon. “It’s impossible (to make ends meet). I’m going broke.”

Video: Diesel Fuel Shortage Hurting Farmers

North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner Roger Johnson says the eastern part of the state is being hit the hardest because it`s at the end of the pipelines.


Saudi Aramco raises October 2007 LPG prices to a record

Saudi Aramco, the world's largest state oil company, boosted prices of liquefied petroleum gas to a record in October in line with higher crude oil costs as demand increased from China and Japan.


Gazprom-Ukraine rift threatens EU gas supply

Fears of a new energy crisis in Europe were mounting after Russia threatened to cut gas supplies to Ukraine just two days after an election that could see a pro-Western government formed in Kiev.


Kenya: Oil Prices - Country And Africa Are in for a Crude Awakening

Kenya's dilemma is what it will do when the strongest nations start grabbing all the oil. It should assume a world of just two products - oil and blood - where more blood will be spilt for the sake of oil.


Russian oil industry: Foreign, domestic interests

At present the Russian leadership is aiming to increase state control over oil production and to focus on the development of the domestic market. This strategy may hamper efficiency.


Iraq's KRG signs four more oil deals

Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government has announced four more controversial oil deals, despite Baghdad’s condemnation, and says more are on the way.


Oil versus monks

America is hungry for Iraq’s oil. Burma is all about oil too. China and India are hungry for Burma’s oil. America loved the Iraqi dictator for as long as the dictator was in America’s economic interest. China and India love the Burmese military junta because the junta has promised them oil (and gas).


Oil War Feared Between Uganda and DR Congo

FARDC soldiers patrolling the lake attacked an oil exploration barge belonging to Canada's Heritage Oil Corporation and killed a British seismic engineering survey team leader, 31 year old Carl Nefdt. The Ugandan army retaliated and a Congolese soldier died in the 15 minute shoot out while a Ugandan soldier was wounded.

Since then, tension has been mounting along that part of the Uganda-Congo frontier that runs north-south down the 160 kilometer long lake - although the alignment of the border has never been precisely defined.


Film review - A Crude Awakening: the oil crash

A Crude Awakening bats at a higher level than most environmental films, partly due to its heavy hitting talking heads. From a former Exxon consultant to the director of Shell, the men in the know finally talk candidly about the future of our love affair with the black stuff.

An informative and hard edged film, but not a unique or charismatic one. Unfortunately this film has failed to aim directly at it’s target audience, too samey for the environmentalist, too information heavy for the idle consumer.


ADM Says No Cut in Corn Processing

The chief financial officer of Archer Daniels Midland Co., one of the nation's biggest ethanol producers, said Tuesday the agribusiness giant has not cut its seed processing capacity because of falling demand for the biofuel.

However, Doug Schmalz suggested the Decatur, Ill.-based company may shift production of corn, the main ingredient in U.S.-produced ethanol, toward other applications, such as corn syrup for the food industry. The company's goal, he said, is to maximize as much profit as possible from each kernel of corn.


Technology, finance combine to fuel Asian green energy hopes

The marriage of innovative technology and financing have led to a spread of energy efficient projects that are improving the quality of life for some of the poorest people across Asia.


Oil-rich Norway must play bigger climate role-minister

Norway must play a leading role in the fight against climate change because its wealth is based on oil and gas production, the country's new energy minister said on Tuesday, urging the industry to do more on the environment.


Hot, parched and sinking - apocalypse Sydney

Britain's chief scientist, Sir David King, said there was no choice but to adopt globally binding greenhouse gas emissions targets. "I do not understand how we can manage a global problem with an aspirational set of targets. It is all very well to say 'Well, we did our best and we didn't manage it', but we are all going to suffer," Sir David told the Herald.


The Oil Price & the Fed Rate Cut Spell a Bull Market for Energy Stocks & Precious Metals

The Peak Oil paradigm is beginning to gain traction. I have taken quite a bit of heat for this view – from many quarters – but I have stood with the concept through thick and thin.

And now, if you still don’t want to hear it from me, no less an authority than America’s first Secretary of Energy and former Director of Central Intelligence James Schlesinger recently noted at an international conference on the subject of energy, “The battle is over, Peak Oil is now accepted as inevitable, and the debate only becomes as to when.”

This is a remarkable statement, coming from one of the most “inside” of U.S. political insiders. Here are the long-term trends that you should expect to see...


Saudi Arabia to host third OPEC summit at presidential level

audi's King Abdullah invited heads of member states of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to a summit to take place November 17 and 18, local press said Wednesday. In its overnight bulletin, the state-owned Saudi news agency, citing Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi, said that the third OPEC summit will be held in Riyadh.


Iraq's oil exports rise to 1.67m bpd in August

A statement issued by the Iraqi government showed that Iraqi oil exports increased in September to 1.67 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.52 million bpd in August of the current year, Iraq Directory reported.


First CORE director stepping down

After 13 years of dedicated service as the director of the Community Office of Resource Efficiency, energy expert Randy Udall is stepping down to pursue his own projects.

...Udall said he will officially step down before fall ends. After that, he looks forward to taking on "odd energy jobs" and focusing on his work with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil-USA, an organization that he co-founded. He said he also plans to focus on writing projects on energy and energy policy, speaking engagements and possibly his brother, Rep. Mark Udall's (D-Colo.), 2008 Senate campaign.


Air Force Energy Initiatives Focus On Fuel

"Energy conservation and developing energy technology is a major Department of Defense effort," Mr. Anderson said. "As the largest consumer of energy in the federal government, the Air Force is in a great position to look for, promote and utilize alternative energy sources."


Car makers – who’s the greenest?

Small European diesel cars lead the carbon stakes overall, but hybrid models could soon come into their own – and there are a host of new technologies and manufacturers waiting in the wings.


In Japan, Going Solar Costly Despite Market Surge

In 1994, the Japanese government paid half the cost of new solar installations. And people took advantage. Sales went up and costs came down by about a third. The government phased the subsidies out gradually and ended them in 2005.


ASPO 6. In Praise of…#6. Nate Hagens.

Human beings, he said, have evolved in such a way that we place short term gains of food and sex over long term thinking. Cheap oil and other fossil fuels have allowed us to grow, but still with the same underlying evolutionary urges. We have evolved as a part of natural selection. The scale of the peak oil crisis though, means that we need to start applying some lateral thinking, and trying to get beyond our evolutionary ‘programming’. He talked about discount rates, about the desire for pleasure now rather than in the future. Lottery winners apparently have ten times the rates of depression of non-Lottery winners.

The Aspiration Gap, the difference between what we have and what we think will make us happy and what actually does, continues however much we have. The amount we think will bring satisfaction is not absolute but is relative to where we are. As with any addiction, we continually need more in order to be able to get the same ‘high’. Key to a successful transition through peak oil will be our ability to replace the need for financial capital with social capital, and learn to base social prowess on how few things we have rather than how many things we have. The concept of ’small is beautiful’ will need to become the driver for our sense of who we are.


OPEC raises oil output slightly in Sept - survey

Ten OPEC members bound by output targets, all except Iraq and Angola, pumped 26.8 million barrels per day, up 60,000 bpd from August, according to the survey of oil firms, traders, OPEC officials and analysts.

The majority of the increase came from the world's biggest exporter Saudi Arabia, which last month convinced fellow OPEC members to open the taps amid surging oil prices.


Oil companies: Change in oil dollar denomination unlikely

Oil prices are likely to remain denominated in dollars despite the currency's weakness, chief economists for Chevron and Total said on Monday.


BP Turns on Greater Plutonio Taps

On October 1, 2007, Greater Plutonio in Block 18 offshore Angola began production. The first BP-operated project in Angola, the development includes five fields in water depths up to 1,450 meters.


Russia Beginning To Feel the Heat

Sustaining economic growth in Russia cannot be achieved through oil and gas export revenues alone; Russia is currently three to five times less efficient in its energy usage than Western European neighbors, with increasing economic implications.


Canadian Royalty Review Causes Major Backlash

Alberta, Canada, Premier Ed Stelmach ordered a public review of royalties, taxes and fees received from the oil and gas industry in February 2007. In less than a year, the backlash from this review has resulted in the first official monetary cutback from the industry, as well as criticism from within the government.


EU Calls for Speedy Resolution to Gazprom-Ukraine Dispute

The European Union called on Tuesday for a swift resolution to the dispute over payments between Ukraine and Russian gas monopolist Gazprom after Gazprom threatened to reduce gas supplies to Ukraine.


New math for utilities: sell less, make more

Five states have adopted 'decoupling' plans, offering electric-power companies incentives to conserve energy.


We paved paradise

In Tippecanoe County, Ind., there are 250,000 more parking spaces than registered cars and trucks. That means that if every driver left home at the same time and parked at the local mini-marts, grocery stores, churches and schools, there would still be a quarter of a million empty spaces. The county's parking lots take up more than 1,000 football fields, covering more than two square miles, and that's not counting the driveways of homes or parking spots on the street. In a community of 155,000, there are 11 parking spaces for every family.


The Good News and Bad News On U.S. Fuel-Economy Trends

Bear with the dry prose and you will get a fascinating study of America's character. We really are the Bigger is Better nation. We are in love with speed, size and power. It's not just a Hollywood or Madison Avenue image. Our cars give us away.

Compared with 1987, the average weight of the vehicle we drive has risen by 923 pounds, or 29%. The average time it takes for a vehicle to go from zero to 60 miles per hour time has dropped to 9.6 seconds -- the fastest since the EPA started compiling this data in 1975. Our average car or truck has 223 horsepower, and the most horsepower per pound on record.


Tough new rule may stop wells flaring, but not tempers

For months, Premier Gordon Campbell has been talking about how his government will slash greenhouse gas emissions by a third by 2020 - an aggressive goal to be sure, but one that seemed comfortably distant for business.

Any sense of comfort has just disappeared. British Columbia will not wait until 2020 to take action, or 2012, or 2010, or any of the other over-the-rainbow dates that governments typically pick when wanting to safely inter the climate change file. The green era begins in B.C. in just over three months, when the province starts its crackdown on the widespread practice of flaring natural gas, according to draft regulations being quietly circulated.


Area of Low Pressure Could Develop Tropical Characteristics

According to the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, a low pressure area near the southern tip of Florida will drift west over the next several days. By Wednesday and Thursday, the low will have entered an area of the Gulf that will allow for development of a subtropical or tropical storm. By Thursday night, the low will be steered northwest and then north toward the Gulf Coast.


Blind people: Hybrid cars pose hazard

Gas-electric hybrid vehicles, the status symbol for the environmentally conscientious, are coming under attack from a constituency that doesn't drive: the blind.

Because hybrids make virtually no noise at slower speeds when they run solely on electric power, blind people say they pose a hazard to those who rely on their ears to determine whether it's safe to cross the street or walk through a parking lot.


Tourist industry to pledge climate-friendly future

A UN conference on tourism and climate change was due to end Wednesday with a pledge to "green" the travel trade while highlighting the 880 billion dollar industry's vulnerability to global warming.


China offers surprise hope in climate change fight

Zhu, the 19-year-old daughter of cabbage farmers, has also for the past few months cooked the family meal in their sparse kitchen on a new eco-friendly stove that burns crop waste ultra-efficiently instead of noxious coal.

...The Zhu family stove, in fact, is being held up as a symbol of what many may be surprised to hear -- that China could be one of the world's saviours in combatting global warming.


EPA: Competing bills achieve same goal

Three competing Senate proposals calling for limits on greenhouse gases would have roughly identical success in curbing global warming, but only if other nations also significantly cut heat-trapping emissions, a government analysis says.


Man on emission

Canada hasn't even formalized its climate change plan yet. But already, Europeans don't like what they see in Harper's approach to environmental policy. That might have a lot to do with Ottawa's decision to put its name behind the Asia Pacific Partnership, the proverbial tie that binds the globe's climate-change renegades and doesn't include any European countries. Scratch that; it has everything to do with the APP.

http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news-betavoltaic-10.1.ht...

Although betavoltaic batteries sound Nuclear they’re not, they’re neither use fission/fusion or chemical processes to produce energy and so (do not produce any radioactive or hazardous waste). Betavoltaics generate power when an electron strikes a particular interface between two layers of material. The Process uses beta electron emissions that occur when a neutron decays into a proton which causes a forward bias in the semiconductor. This makes the betavoltaic cell a forward bias diode of sorts, similar in some respects to a photovoltaic (solar) cell. Electrons scatter out of their normal orbits in the semiconductor and into the circuit creating a usable electric current.

Batteries like this could marginalize peak oil. Does anyone with any sense of knowledge of these think it's scalable? Better yet, does this really work? It reminds me of burning salt water....

It has been discussed in the comments about Robert Rapier's excellent contribution yesterday here .

Great! Sounds like a fantastic idea. If it works on the large scale, one could imagine a car that never needs to be re-fueled or re-charged. Just buy it and drive it. However, they don't say what material is to be used as the source of beta emissions. It's likely that the source is the result of radioactive decay. And, the batteries are said to exhibit a lifetime of 30 years, which makes one wonder whether the "death" is a slow, exponential decay or a sharp "that's all folks"...

E. Swanson

Without reading ... nuclear materials have a half life and beta decay is a nuclear process. The battery will decline in a known curve.

Beta emitted electrons are high energy and there may be some erosion of the zone between the two materials which would reduce efficiency. Your mileage may vary.

And one either has to mine beat emitters or make them using a nuclear reactor ... oh, just followed a link - use tritium for this? Sure ... we're talking long term spaceship batteries that will be less controversial than boosting bits of plutonium into orbit, but that is the only use such a technology will see as far as I can tell ...

Electrons from beta decay of tritium have an energy of 5.7 keV with a decay constant of 1.8E-9/sec. If one had a kilogram of water with both hydrogens as tritium, this leads to (starting out) a power output of just over 100 watts, which decreases to 50 watts after 12 years. Useful perhaps for the Eveready Energizer Bunny. Since it runs non-stop whether you use it or not, one could trickle-charge a conventional battery and make it power your toaster occasionally. All this assumes, however, 100% conversion of the electron kinetic energy into useful power, which is of course ridiculous. And as others have pointed out, only around 250 kg of tritium (equal to about 1500 kg tritiated water in my example) have been produced in the US since 1955.

You can, of course, burn salt water if you put enough energy in to dissociate the water and burn the hydrogen. Of course, what you get back is less energy than you put in.

Same with any battery -- lead acid, carbon-zinc or "betavoltaic." Something separates charges, which are then allowed to slowly recombine in some way that produces a usable current of electrons. It takes far more power to separate the charges than you get back in recombining them -- but doing so can make sense under some conditions: specifically, those things for which we need a portable energy source.

Nevertheless, I have friends who believe that batteries "make" energy, and they can't understand all the fuss about peak oil, because they can just go to the store and buy batteries if the power goes off.

Neutron decay causing "forward bias in the semi-conductor"?? This sounds like bait for ignorant venture capitalists.

Isotope power sources have been around since the cold war. There was some pretty nasty cobalt ones found dismantled/smashed in E Europe by civilians in the 1990s. [sorry no reference]. Those sort used thermocouples and heat, but I am sure there have always been other ways of exploiting radiation. Saying they are not radioactive is wrong.

Betavoltaic devives have high energy density but very poor power density. Generating the 10s of kilowatts a car would need would requires acres of surface area squeezed into a few cubic feet. Nanotech may be able to pull it off. It could be a significant source of energy but time to ramp up to quantities to make that impact would take 10 to 20 years which we may not have. A prime candidate for fuel would be potassium 40 which is the most abundant radioactive isotope in the world. It has a half life of about 29 years.

A prime candidate for fuel would be potassium 40 which is the most abundant radioactive isotope in the world.

Sure Tom, sure, no problem.
Just need to mine it, separate from the non radioactive, prevent it to burn off the factory while it's not yet packed in the batteries, etc...

Ahhh.. no.

Potassium 40 has a half-life of 1,250,000,000 years, not 29 years. It is, indeed the most abundant radioisotope (or pretty close to it), and is responsible for a sizable amount of the internal heat generated in the Earth.

But its concentration in natural potassium is .0001

Extraction costs would be high (centrifugal separation of isotopes differing by a few percent), and the energy payback time would be a significant fraction of the lifetime of the Universe.

Tritium is no good either. Too expensive, too dangerous in useful amounts.

Carbon14 is better, easier to make, but still astronomically expensive, and far, far more dangerous. Imagine a car powered by Carbon14 decay... any crash that breaches the containment vessel makes the entire neighborhood uninhabitable for 50,000 years or more.

Forget all betavoltaic applications except for space probes and such.

Oh that's a great plan. Lets use elements that are used/expected in biological reactions as radioactive sources.

A rare repost of mine, reposted because of the underlying issue it illustrates.

...funneling energy toward infrastructure replacement and redevelopment will take energy and resources away from everything else. Less energy and resources will be available for maintaining quality of life and lifestyle, less available for other energy initiatives...

We cannot "crash everything" (as in build ALL options simultaneously ASAP). Unfortunately we CAN "crash everything" as in our environment and society.

My greatest fear is a massive effort to build CTL (coal-to-liquids) as a Peak Oil response.

I compare mountain-top removal, strip mining in general, spoil piles and Global Warming to the French trams that I posted on the Oct. 2 Drumbeat and sigh.

Will we run towards beauty and life or destruction and death in our panic ?

Best Hopes,

Alan

Edited to remove unnecessary oversized graphics.

Please remember that some are still on dial-up. And no, resizing with HTML tags doesn't help.

I am still on dial-up and load time is a few seconds (about 3) (High speed has been back a few months but I have not yet switched back).

I try and only include graphics that are important to the post and illustrate in ways that words simply cannot.

The pictures provide a vivid visual contrast of our choices that is worth 10,000 words.

They are at

http://images.nycsubway.org/i62000/img_62964.jpg

http://www.ohvec.org/old_site/images/Ovec22.gif

Best Hopes,

Alan

Thumbnail the images, don't resize them with HTML tags. It makes no sense to resize with HTML tags. The bandwidth hit is the same. And images made larger than actual size with HTML tags are really, really ugly.

You have a website. You could host the thumbnails there. Or use ImageShack or some other free hosting service that will resize graphics for you with a click.

how does one 'thumbnail' an image?
thanks

Use a freeware such as Irfan View (which is good for lottsa other useful purposes, too. Great program.)

Thumbnailing is simply downsizing an image and using it as a html reference. In Irfan View you load the original image, press CTRL+R and enter the new size values. So you can downsize a 2028x1024 pixels imgage to, say, 80x40 pixels (try what you like best), and then use the smaller one such as:

<a href="my-large-pic.jpg"><img src="my-thumbnail.jpg"></a>

Irfan-View allows 'thumbnailing' complete folders or volumes in one strike AFAIK, and many more batch operations.

HTH

IrfanView is fantastic, and is one of the very few programs which doesn't have a decent substitute in the Linux/free software world. GQview is several major steps behind IrfanView, for example.

Installation is simple, the number of formats handled is unbelievable, and its features are ideal for a graphics viewer. I've actually sent him money, years ago - he most certainly appreciates donations, but the program is pure craftmanship, not mere commercial activity.

Indeed Irfan View can do lots of routine operations which many of my colleagues use that monster Photoshop for (such as refining work on scans).
And you can even create slideshows and export them as *.exe files for Windows. And play all kinds of music and video files .. and, and ..

I never use both Photoshop and Power Point 'cause I-View can do it all.

Yep...you can't beat the squashed cat for quick graphic and photo alterations. I'm another devoted user.

[edited spelling]

I use Flickr to store my photos - my original images are typically in the three meg range, but after uploading the site makes many sizes available, including thumbnails like this, complete with the HTML necessary to add not only the photo but a link to a larger image in case the viewer is not bandwidth constrained and wishes to see detail.

The other side of the fence

Thanks for this Alan...what your are highlighting is the "morality" of maintaining the current course of economic growth in today's world. Have we reached the point where people will view sustained growth as immoral? Time will tell...

AD for Prez!!!

For the past year, I have been commuting about 60% of the time on an electric scooter, an EVT 168. It has the basic design of a Vespa. It goes 30mph, and up to 35 mph when I push it hard. But it gets me to work in the exact same time (or better) than my car. I talk to people walking past when I am at a stop, and can chat with bicycle riders when we lane share. My three and one half mile commute costs me less than a quarter's worth of eletricity. I am amazed that more people don't commute like this. Less energy, less resources, less wear and tear on the roads, and closer community connections.
I am trying to run toward the beauty and life part, but I also see the scrunched up faces of fear in those SUV drivers trying to get through the next light.
By the way, at least in my town, the difference between driving a steady 30 mph (the speed limit) on a main artery and driving 45 mph with jack rabbit starts is less than 20 seconds on a two mile stretch. But you can't tell my neighbor in his 5 series BMW that.

I always have the urge to vandalize BMW 5 series. I've managed to restrain myself, however. However when it comes to a BMW that wants to merge into my lane when I'm driving, I'll let them. *grin*
~Durandal (http://www.wtdwtshtf.com/)

Don't pick a fight with one of those 4000 lb compacts. They must be made of tungsten. In Iraq, BMWs are favored by those who still have money, because of their toughness. Yet they still have enough pep to zoom away from an ambush at a roadblock.

The 540i with a six-speed can do 0-60 in less than six seconds and has a top speed of 155 mph. And they really only weigh about 3750.

As a rule, have we been running towards beauty and life when times were good?

That is why it is easy for many to see doom.

Hard to believe the good ship 'consumption' will suddenly change course and switch to an organic sustainable steady state economy.

Would be lovely.

Yeah. The way I see it, we're going to be using a hell of a lot of coal no matter what. And whether it's via light rail or CTL or electric cars doesn't really matter, at least from an environmental perspective.

...via light rail or CTL or electric cars doesn't really matter

A reasonable estimate is that CTL to maintain Suburbia will require 20 to 50 times as much coal as it would to maintain light rail service to well insulated Transit Orientated Development.

Electric cars are in between.

I think that it does matter.

Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency,

Alan

A reasonable estimate is that CTL to maintain Suburbia will require 20 to 50 times as much coal as it would to maintain light rail service to well insulated Transit Orientated Development.

But...light rail will not maintain suburbia, either. Why hold CTL or electric cars to that standard?

CTL and electric vehicles do ZERO, NADA, Nothing to create TOD development. (Hint: one needs the "T" to get the "OD").

Urban Rail, including light rail does.

There is an unmeet demand TODAY (per group of surveys referenced by Laurence Aurbach) by roughly 30% of the population to live in TOD. Post-Peak Oil I expect that % to increase. CTL & EVs will not meet that demand.

And for the rest, they can reform Suburbia into walkable villages and towns clustered around commuter rail stops. Some walk or bicycle to local work, others take the train in and bring money back in the PM.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Mbta_district.svg

So Urban Rail can maintain a certain type of Suburbia.

And I do not doubt that CTL, if built, will be used to maintain high energy, inefficient Suburbia as long as possible, with MAXIMUM environmental damage.

Best Hopes for Energy Efficiency,

Alan

If that's what people want, it'll happen. Electric cars and CTL will not maintain suburbia. Energy will be too expensive to waste that way.

But mass transit has too many obvious winners and losers. It's hard to get people behind it for that reason. I see electric cars (and probably light rail, too) as being a transition to a lifestyle where we all do a lot less traveling. It's not an end point in and of itself, but a way to make the drop down the backside of Hubbert's peak less catastrophic.

If that's what people want, it'll happen

I strongly disagree ! A strong minority have wanted this for decades and there have been some breakthroughs (Miami approved & funded linked plan below, 25 years to build because of weak federal funding) but not anywhere close to enough to satisfy market demand.

http://www.miamidade.gov/citt/RailMap.htm
Medium Brown lines are post-2015,

Alan