DrumBeat: October 6, 2007
Posted by Leanan on October 6, 2007 - 9:22am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Lester R. Brown: The Nature Of The New World
If recent environmental trends continue, the global economy eventually will come crashing down. It is not knowledge that we lack. At issue is whether national governments can stabilize population and restructure the economy before time runs out.
"America is on the verge of an energy crisis," Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) warns on his presidential campaign website, blaming "years of neglect and shortsighted domestic policies."His solution? Incentivize the marketplace to develop more nuclear power, more renewables, plug-in hybrids, better biofuels, and other homegrown energy sources and technologies. Brownback has been a big advocate of ethanol and other biofuels throughout the decade he's spent representing Kansas in the U.S. Senate -- no surprise, considering that he hails from the heartland.
ANALYSIS-Russian gas pipeline more likely than EU's Nabucco
A major Kremlin-backed gas pipeline may have a better chance of supplying Europe with new gas than the much-touted EU-backed Nabucco project, designed to ease the bloc's dependence on Russia, analysts say.Although both projects are riddled with problems and may not move off the drawing board, the main question behind long-delayed Nabucco is whether it can secure enough Caspian and Middle East supplies to fill the pipe.
Norway sees gas output jump in 2008, less oil
Norway's gradual shift from oil to gas production will push up natural gas sales by 23 percent next year while oil output drops to levels last seen in the early 1990s, the government's 2008 budget draft showed on Friday.
Lithuanian energy summit to court Caspian oil
The leaders of Azerbaijan, Georgia, Lithuania, Ukraine and Poland will try to revive a long-delayed plan to ship Caspian Sea crude to world markets bypassing Russia when they meet next week, a Lithuanian official said on Friday.
High oil prices prompt move to drill in Falklands
BHP Billiton's decision to drill at least two exploration wells in the Falkland Islands was just a matter of time as record oil prices reinvigorate interest in one of the world's least explored oil provinces.
France can't ignore Iran energy deals-Iran minister
Iran's oil minister on Saturday brushed aside calls by Paris for French firms to avoid Iranian energy deals, saying the world's fourth largest oil producer was too attractive for them to ignore, a news agency reported.
Broken robots: technology reconsidered
I might as well be honest - my iPod Mini is falling apart. The aluminum case has been banged up for a while now, and the battery life has been steadily declining. Recently the plastic panel on top came off, and I figured it might be time for an upgrade. But then I had second thoughts: if I shell out 200 bucks for a shiny black Nano, I won’t just be buying an mp3 player. I’ll also be buying the toxic chemicals used to make it, the cardboard used to package it, the oil used to ship it from China. Suddenly, keeping the old Mini around didn’t seem so bad, after all.
Nadia Scialabba, an FAO official, defined organic agriculture as: “A holistic production management system that avoids the use of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides, and genetically modified organisms, minimises pollution of air, soil and water, and optimises the health and productivity of plants, animals and people.”
Automobile buyers fall for the small
U.S. compact- and subcompact-car sales hit a record 2.7 million units in 2006, and experts expect even better results this year despite a broad auto-market slowdown.“The things that have fueled (small-car sales) are really not going away: Gas prices, the housing market (and) the fashion aspect of these cars,” said Jesse Toprak of auto site Edmunds.com.
College students thumbing rides online
Virginia Tech freshman Amanda Thompson needed to get home for fall break this weekend. But before her journey started, she faced one hefty roadblock: finding a ride.So Thompson, a communications major without a car on campus, did what all savvy college students do: She scoured Facebook for a ride. The social-networking site is filled with people looking to share fuel costs, which average about $2.68 per gallon this week, according to AAA.
From road tax to parking and congestion charges, motorists face a whole range of new penalties based on the fuel consumption and carbon emissions of their cars, such that a single extra gramme of CO2 could cost hundreds of pounds per year. But does anyone really believe the figures on which the charges are based?
"Anything made with corn is more expensive now," Gloekler said.But it's quite a leap to blame the Little Debbie price increase on higher corn costs, according to the National Corn Growers Association.
Things such as plastic packaging, made from petroleum, are more likely to be the culprit in some higher food prices, said Lou Malnassy, association spokesman.
Steve Andrews on upcoming Houston ASPO conference
Steve Andrews of ASPO-USA talks with GPM's Julian Darley at the 6th Annual International ASPO Conference in Cork, Ireland. Andrews recaps the peak oil events of the last year and discusses the upcoming 2007 Houston World Oil Conference, happening October 17-20, 2007.Speakers at the 2007 Houston World Oil Conference include T. Boone Pickens, Matt Simmons, Henry Groppe, Chris Skrebowski, Roscoe Bartlett, Robert Hirsch, Roger Bezdek, David Hughes, Peter Tertzakian, Debbie Cook, Stuart Staniford and many more. For more information, visit the ASPO USA website.
Heinberg sets the context of Peak Oil as being the fundamental issue of a time in which we will see many resources and conditions essential for modern society peak, including fish stocks, many essential metals, uranium, arable land and fresh water per capita. Heinberg links these all to the fundamental and issue of cheap fossil energy, but also invites us to consider what may not be peaking- including community, creativity, leisure time, happiness and beauty.
Officials hope voters might favor gas tax boost to fight warming
Regional officials are taking a close look at trying to increase the Bay Area's gasoline tax by as much as 10 cents a gallon and believe voters might agree to it as a way to help combat global warming, The Chronicle learned Thursday.
Tim Flannery: we have to stop our emissions (podcast)
Tim Flannery, one of Australia's top scientists and author of The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change talks to Andi Hazelwood of Global Public Media about his suggested mitigations for climate change on the heels of the alarming new report from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO). Flannery also discusses Australia's drought and food crises, relocalization and Bjorn Lomborg's skeptical new book on global warming.
China to raise coal output, open 'super' mines
Energy-starved China will boost coal output by 400 million tonnes a year by 2010 by streamlining the industry and opening a string of new "super" pits, state media reported Friday.
Dragonflies, open water reveal rapid Arctic change
Changes to the environment and climate are usually imperceptible and are visible only when the increments build up over time and result in a trend. But in the summer of 2007, both anecdotal and quantifiable evidence emerged that showed dramatic changes are taking place in the Far North at a faster pace than anyone imagined.
North Dakota: Diesel supplies low during peak use season
Rosemary Patrick, whose family farms in the Wilton area, said they were surprised Tuesday when they went to fill up on diesel at the local station and were told the station was out.Although the Patricks are done harvesting, they were getting ready to fertilize, which requires the use of a tractor. Which, of course, requires diesel.
Governor: North Dakota to get diesel shipment
A 2 million gallon shipment of diesel is due in North Dakota next week to help ease a shortage of the fuel in the state, Gov. John Hoeven said.
Gas-price rise puzzles drivers, energy officials
"I don't know where the market is going," said Tom Robinson, president of Robinson Oil. "With the easier winter specs coming, and since this is often a slower gas time, and heating oil demand hasn't started yet, prices should be softer, but they are going up. It's hard to know."
Lincoln County Food Share faces shortage
Why did this shortage take place?Smith explained that USDA commodities have declined 52 percent in the past four years. Also, food-industry donations have decreased due to a strong consumer market, high commodity prices, increased bio-fuel demand, increased efficiency in food manufacturing and international markets draining both national and local sources.
Asian Fuel Oil Rises to Record as Iran Cuts Exports
Dubai crude jumped $2.05 a barrel, or 2.8%, to $74.60 a barrel, Bloomberg data showed. Iran has cut fuel oil exports to Fujairah, the Middle East's biggest bunkering port that sells around 700,000 metric tons a month, to as low as 180,000 tons in August from typical monthly shipments of around 300,000 tons, traders said.The lack of supplies at Fujairah prompted traders to import fuel oil from Asia and Europe, pushing prices in those regions higher.
Cabinet may decide on petrol prices after October 7
: The Union Cabinet meeting next week is likely to take a decision on various options, including price revision, to bail out loss making oil firms, a top petroleum ministry official said on Satarday.mt555
Philippines: Oil firms hike fuel, LPG prices once more
or the third straight week, oil firms raised gasoline, diesel and kerosene prices by P0.50 a liter and of liquefied petroleum gas by P1.12 per kilogram, all inclusive of the 12-percent value-added tax.
Zambia: Motorists Abandon Work as Fuel Shortage Worsens
THE acute fuel shortage that has hit the Copperbelt and various parts of the country yesterday worsened forcing some Ndola motorists to abandon their work spending long hours on queues in a bid to buy the commodity.
It's a sort of vicious cycle: Crude oil costs more because it is becoming harder to find and produce. That powers up demand and prices for oil and gas field equipment and services, putting pressure on oil companies to lift crude prices.The result: field services giant Schlumberger SLB finds itself in a light, sweet spot.
Pemex Obtains $2.5 Billion Bank Credit at Lower Rate
Petroleos Mexicanos, the Mexican state-owned oil monopoly, obtained a $2.5 billion standby bank loan at a longer maturity and lower rate than two existing credit lines.
Pemex, Nexen sign collaboration agreement
Despite the fact they can't directly invest in Mexican oil and gas, foreign energy companies are nurturing good relations with Pemex in case there is a loosening of restrictions under conservative President Felipe Calderon who has pushed two key economic reforms through Congress in under a year.Analysts see Pemex under pressure to develop deepwater operations in the Gulf of Mexico as yields decline at its main shallow water oil field Cantarell, but say it is hard pushed to do so alone.
Gore discusses global warming in Mexico
Global warming isn't a popular topic in Mexican political circles, but Al Gore traveled to Mexico on Thursday night for the second time in two months because he has found a receptive audience in President Felipe Calderón.
Since summer, one of North America's most important oil towns has witnessed a disappearing act.The mammoth storage tanks that blanket the rolling grasslands around this remote prairie town had been filled to the brim with crude oil. They aren't anymore. Since May, millions of barrels of crude have been sold off, and Cushing's inventory has fallen by nearly 35%.
Oil traders around the globe obsess about inventory. Storage levels have fallen, not just in Cushing, but in other oil depots as well. Fearful that the U.S. cushion of spare fuel could hit a low by year-end, traders drove prices to a record of nearly $84 a barrel last month. On Friday, oil closed at $81.22 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 33% this year.
Toward Zero and Beyond with Steven Strong
Steven Strong says our two 800lb gorillas are obvious - Peak Oil and Climate Change. Peak oil is compounded by population growth, which Steven says is an inevitable "train wreck" which only a good "12-step program" can help us avoid. Our current "Mythical Cornucopian Energy Economy" would have environmentalists get out of the way so we can keep consuming the resources we obviously have and, are told we need. The effects of climate change are far reaching but can be summed up pretty easily in the mounting costs of natural disasters. During the 1990s insurance companies paid out $439 Billion, more than the cumulative totals of all previous decades.
Report from Nobel Conference - Heating Up: The Energy Debate
I attended the two-day event, which delivered in its round-up of impressive energy and global warming experts: Nobel Laureate in Physics Dr. Stephen Chu, biofuels expert Dr. Lee Rybeck Lynd, peak oil expert Ken Deffeyes, economist Paul L. Joskow, polar explorer Will Steger, hydrogen expert Joan M. Ogden, and James Hansen, Director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.While at times the science got a bit thick, the message from all of the lecturers was clear: Global warming is urgent, we need to do something NOW, and many different solutions will get us there.
China to invest in Chad refinery
The Xinhua news agency reported CNPC, China’s largest oil producer, and its wholly-owned subsidiary Engineering Ltd., have signed an agreement with the government of the landlocked oil-producing central African country to invest in a refinery north of the capital N'Djamena.
Italy suspends BG's Brindisi LNG project
The ministry said in a statement late on Friday it had agreed with the Economic Development Ministry to suspend the authorisation of BG's long-contested project until a study of the environmental impact of the terminal is completed.
Greens warn oil transfers open to legal action
UK Government ministers were today urged to act over controversial plans for ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Forth.
Gulf currency revaluation risk could 'squeeze dollar further'
The broadly declining dollar could come under further pressure should Gulf Arab states decide to revalue their currencies and remove pegs to the greenback, prompting a flight out of US assets by oil-rich Middle East countries.Speculation about the dollar peg hogged the headlines in recent sessions after Saudi Arabia kept interest rates unchanged despite the Federal Reserve slashing benchmark rates by a half percentage point last month.
Iran says OPEC may review oil cut after Nov
Iran's oil minister said on Saturday OPEC could revise a decision to boost crude production from November if that increase pushed prices lower than was economical for producers, an Iranian news agency reported.
It's not just Alberta, it's the whole country (Review of Stupid to the Last Drop)
But let's begin with Marsden's intelligently quirky narrative on energy and destiny. The investigative reporter starts off with a curious yet true story about plans to nuke the tar sands, the world's second-largest source of oil after Saudi Arabia. But separating tar from sand in the boreal forest has always been a messy job. The good folks at Richfield Oil and the Alberta government figured out that a couple of atomic warheads might speed up the process in the 1950s.
EU Receives Assurances from Ukraine for End to Gas Row
EU energy commissioner Andris Piebalgs said he has received assurances from Ukraine of a solution to Russia's dispute with Kiev over unpaid debt for gas supplies by Nov 1.
Ukrainian gas to be transferred to Gazprom
Natural gas to be transferred to Russia's Gazprom will count as $600 million in credit against the more than $1.3 billion debt owed by Ukraine, a report said.The debt was incurred as companies working in Ukraine failed to pay Gazprom for natural gas stored in Ukrainian underground tanks, Ukrainian Fuel and Energy Minister Yuri Boiko said in a interview Saturday.
Ecuador Unveils Plans to Extend Control Over Oil Industry
Ecuador's government surprised private-sector oil companies late Thursday by unveiling dramatic plans to tighten its grip on the oil sector.President Rafael Correa late Thursday signed an executive decree raising the state's share of oil revenues, while the country's top energy official said the government wants to take back full ownership of oil resources and production.
Automakers to appeal emissions ruling
Automakers on Friday said they would appeal a ruling by a federal judge in Vermont that said states could regulate greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles.The industry, represented by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, has argued that federal law pre-empts state rules in the regulation of fuel economy standards and the technology cannot be developed to meet the tough standards pushed by California and others.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Where Peak Oil Is Wrong
For regular readers of this column, you will know we take a strong middle line on the subject of peak oil. We think it is like death: At some point it is going to arrive, rather unfortunately, and the consequences of it do not appear to be favourable. It is what we do before it arrives that makes the aftermath more bearable.
South Korea eyes North Korea’s oil
Seoul has a keen interest in joint development of North Korea’s oil fields. With the prospect of rich oil reserves and increased inter-Korean cooperation, the South proposed to launch joint oil and gas development projects at the the second inter-Korean summit, which took place from October 2 to 4. The North, however, seems to have little enthusiasm for the idea and the prospect could be further hindered by China, which already has a development deal with the North.
BP to double fuel oil capacity in Singapore
BP is doubling its fuel oil storage capacity in Singapore to about 600,000 cu m, to help keep its trading edge over rivals who are snapping at its heels, industry sources said yesterday.
Heavy oil may soon prove profitable
The Ugnu deposit presents technological and economic challenges, however. BP will test a technology called cold heavy oil production with sand, or CHOPS, that is being adapted from techniques used with similar heavy oil deposits in Canada, Suttles said.
Water companies need to adapt to climate change: experts
Water management companies will face huge challenges due to climate change and need to start adapting their strategies, experts warned in Amsterdam on Friday.
World moves into the ecological red
The world moved into 'ecological overdraft' on Saturday, the point at which human consumption exceeds the ability of the earth to sustain it in any year and goes into the red, the New Economics Foundation think-tank said.Ecological Debt Day this year is three days earlier than in 2006 which itself was three days earlier than in 2005. NEF said the date had moved steadily backwards every year since humanity began living beyond its environmental means in the 1980s.



Mayor of Fargo, N.D., opposing TransCanada Corp. oil pipeline
http://canadianpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5hwlV28T2fFxaerLSwyZfuV4F1d...
Not that I disagree with environmental concerns, but it just such delays and opposition that make it hard to believe the necessary infrastructure changes will not be in time.
If petroleum product pipelines could not cross rivers for "fear of leaking," then there would be no petroleum product pipelines anywhere. Within a tolerable degree, I believe that problem was solved a century ago, but maybe North Dakota has not found that out yet.
Iraq seems to have a big problem with oil pipelines leaking into their rivers.
And you're implying that black swans don't exist.
Like the Exxon Valdez and Chernobyl.
There's a good reason that NIMBY's are a growing segment of our pop.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
Iraq seems to have a big problem with oil pipelines leaking into their rivers.
Google some picture from Nigeria sometime. Horrible.
"Solved" does not mean that leaks never happen. What most of us do not have here is data that tells us what the rate of leakage ought to be, along with what the rate of leakage actually is. The first number would tell us what is technically feasible. The second number would tell us how close the oil companies are to maintaining that feasibility or if they are slacking off and letting pipelines corrode away (as we saw with BP on the north slope). Does anyone here have access to that sort of data or something similar that would allow us to get a good idea of whether these political concerns are realistic or not?
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Not that I disagree with environmental concerns, either, but...
Here in Oregon/Washington, opposition to WINDMILLS is strong and impassioned. It seems that many (most?) people are opposed to having them around.
With abundant electricity and cheap rates, they can afford to be. Situation is similar with LNG terminals, and their associated pipelines, proposed locally.
Some outside pressure will be necessary to override passionate locals. I don't necessarily advocate that, we're all just in a big hole because of excessive energy demand.
I can imagine an alternative future (as opposed to burning it all) where we just huddle in the cold.
There is opposition to TREES in Iceland. Very few trees in living memory (places names persist with forest names though).
The attitude of the Icelandic Forest Service is to back off where resistance appears and plant elsewhere. Come back in 25 or 40 years when people have changed (a new crop of people as one put it) and are more used to seeing trees.
Best Hopes for a Rush to Wind,
Alan
Norwegian govt bases budget estimates on 73.5 usd a barrel oil price for 2007
http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/10/05/afx4190408.htm...
Here is an open question, who thinks it will prices will ease in 2008?
It's a crapshoot. If US (+EU) go into a recession badly enough, there is no way the oil exporters can pick up the consumption, so China/India/Vietnam/Japan will hiccup also with some delay.
That should reduce oil consumption after some delay. As should the the current high prices.
But will it be enough to drive down the oil price (yearly average)? I don't know. My crystal ball is in the repair shop, it's been very murky lately, can't get good readings anymore.
But yes, the immediate oil price should go down to accommodate for the intra-year cycle, shouldn't it?
The yearly average I'm not so sure about.
Intra-year cycles, of course.
But, full year average price?
I do wonder what will happen, lots of above ground factors with an election year, and still some room for a NEW All Liquids peak.
And here we go.
The price of crude will never go down.
Think about getting paid in BTU's. You'd like that, huh?
Inflation would be dead forever.
When oil goes down, so will the price of beer.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
The price of oil in Norwegian Krona could go down whilst the price in United States Dollars could go up, substantially.
The Norwegians are conservative and prudent with their finances, unlike certain other nation states, and the prudent course is to budget for the lowest reasonable price.
Best Hopes for Norwegian Gasoline Taxes staying the highest in the world,
Alan
When the North Sea drops to MOL,
and Norway is forced to pay or do w/o
we'll see how prudent they are.
OSLO, Norway: A Norwegian whaling boat that sank last month may have been sabotaged, police said Thursday, two days after an Internet posting by anonymous activists claiming to be behind the sinking.
The 89-foot (27-meter) fishing trawler Willassen Senior, used in Norway's hotly protested commercial whale hunts, sank at a wharf in the Arctic Lofoten Islands in the early hours of Aug. 31.
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/09/13/europe/EU-GEN-Norway-Whaling.p...
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
That is the essential point - that this is a budget not a price prediction. If the price goes higher, then Norway receives a windfall and good for them. But if the price went lower and the budget was planned around the higher number, they would have to either cut services or raise taxes. Now what politician wants to do that? So assume the more conservative number and if you get the windfall, deal with it then.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Alan I agree. It has really amazed me to see how much the dollar has sunk relative to the crown during the last months.
The Norwegian centralbank will probably have to continue with their ratehikes for a while. With that happening there's a real chance that the Norwegian crown could join the Icelandic crown and Kiwi dollar in being targeted by carry traders...
With regards to the oil price expectations in the Norwegian budget, it should probably be mentioned that they have underestimated the oil price for as long as I can remember. You are certainly right that it is a conservative price estimate. Personally I would probably use it as more of a lower bound for the oil price, but of course I am peak oil aware.
The Norwegian financial prudence you refer to, is rooted in the principle that the Norwegian state should only spend oil revenue equal to 4% of the nominal value of the Norwegian petroleum fund. I believe that they overshot the target in 2003-2005, 2006 was equal to target, from memory, and this year will either be lower or equal to target.
It should be noted that there are certainly people who think the 4% principle is stupid. Everytime there's a problem that is reported in the media, whether the health system hasn't got enough money, or the roads are potholed or something else, there's always someone who is pointing out that the Norwegian state is depositing 300 BILLION CROWNS in the petroleum fund every year. (Yes, they speak in capital letters). It is rarely mentioned that unless oil prices rise, the Norwegian petroleum fortune (petroleum reserves plus financial assets) is just barely enough to pay the pensions of the baby-boom generation.
I certainly hope that too. They did increase the tax for diesel 0.2 Crowns/litre in their budget for 2008. After a rejiggering of the registration taxes for new cars to favor low-CO2 vehicles for this year had produced record sales of diesel-powered vehicles (75% of new car sales in september), there has been much media attention on the unhealthy particulate emissions of diesel-cars. Also the tax on diesel has lagged behind gas for years.
Finally, I do think we Norwegians have burned through our petroleum resources far to quickly. After all, according to mainstream economists, we should pump up and convert our oil reserves to financial assets before the price of oil falls to its long-term inflation adjusted level...
The HL plot shows Norwegian production down to about one mbpd (total liquids) by 2015, and down to about 500,000 bpd by 2020, versus current production of about 2.4 mbpd.
Current Norwegian oil consumption is about 250,000 b/day, most of which goes to support the offshore oil & gas industry and fishing AFAIK.
Depleting oil means less oil needed to support after plug and abandon.
Fishing is an economic activity. Higher oil prices mean will reduced fishing use (more efficient trawlers + less frequent fishing > more fish/trip).
I expect Norwegian internal consumption to drop long term and for then to to continue exporting SOME oil for a long time.
Norway is also a major hydroelectric exporter and natural gas exporter. One of these will not deplete.
Best Hopes for Norway,
Alan
Hydro depletion can happen - Glen Canyon's output is down 30% due to reduced water pressure. Admittedly the arctic ice pack going probably means more water for Norway, but we should keep these effects in mind ...
I think about this issue in terms of biofuels effects - one bad year, or climate change producing a run of different (and bad for corn) years totally redraws the landscape. Rail electrification sounds better and better, no?
Norwegian - government is stipulating ONLY 66$/barrel for 2008
Actually there has been a mistranslation somewhere.
Norwegian language warning – but you’ll see the 66$ (= 360 kroner) in the text)
http://www.dn.no/energi/article1195940.ece?jgo=c1_re&WT.svl=article_imag...
I don't see the problem. They said the price as 73.5 for 2007, and 360Kr(in text) for 2008. I didn't convert, only noting that it would (logically) have to be cheaper than 73.5.
So, I asked, do you think it will be cheaper (year average) than 73.5 for 2008? Or, if you want to specific, do you think it will be $66 year average for 2008?
IMHO, I think the best we could hope for is to hold the line (~75+ ish). But, in the end, I think the average will be over $80, once we hit next summer with record low gasoline stocks(and possibly lower crude stocks).
Sorry PeakTo , my bad. (I anticipated the 73,5$ to mirror the 2008 budget..., but obviously you write 2007…)
My thoughts for next years crude-cost is up – as compared to this year’s average, given a similar world situation, above ground and more …
But there is this financial situation doing “its thing” … making anything possible.
$3-a-gallon gas may be here to stay
http://www.insidebayarea.com/oaklandtribune/localnews/ci_7103340
Just for Robert...no price retreat during winter gasoline turnover and demand reduction season. Neither seem to be happening according to plan, and accordingly no price relief.
Let's hope for a mild winter(gads...not something to hope for with GW) because Fuel oil and Propane are sharply lower than 2006.
It's very strange what's going on with gasoline prices across the US right now. The KC Metro area (entire Midwest?) has recently seen gasoline prices dive. We are currently sitting at $2.49 for regular unleaded, but $2.99 for diesel. It's difficult to understand how this can be when crude is sitting above $80 even factoring in winter-blend turnover.
Nearly three years ago, the oil market became especially attractive for investors with the means to set aside oil in storage tanks. The price of oil delivered in the future rose far above the spot price -- a market condition known as "contango." That made it profitable to store oil rather than to sell it right away.
As I have argued, backwardation is the sign of demand exceeding supply.
Taken from the above quote, backwardation would be the opposite of contango:
The price of oil delivered in the future fell far below the spot price -- a market condition known as "backwardation".
It (the crude) fell because demand is here and now.
Therefore, with this def of backwardation you would
see that getting rid of inventory is the solution.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119162309507450611.html?mod=googlenews_w...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/brown/2007/0914.html
Second, we need to evaluate crude oil inventories based on Days of Supply in excess of Minimum Operating Level (MOL). In the US, the MOL for crude oil is probably about 270 million barrels (mb). At about 322 mb, US crude oil inventories are probably best characterized by Hours of Supply in excess of MOL (about 80 hours). In my opinion, recent fluctuations in US crude oil inventories merely reflect minor changes in a thin margin of supply in excess of MOL.
Refiners are unlikely to let their inventories drop below certain critical levels, and given the expectation of declining world oil exports, refiners will have two choices: (1) Bid the price up enough to keep their inventories up and/or (2) Reduce their crude oil input, thus reducing product output.
Jeff Brown is right.
And I still don't think those 300k per day refineries in Wilmington are back up yet.
Arkansaw of Samuel L Clemens
PTO we have seen about a 4% decline in regular here in southern Ontario over the past week or two. Is there a source for local demand numbers etc? We also see diesel resisting the drop more here. I am assuming that this is because refiners are building fuel oil stocks from the same fraction and have reduced supply of motor grade. Does this seem right?
I wish we could afford the life we are living.
Agree...Ontario has seen a drop, but I don't have demand numbers for Canada (on a regular updated basis)...so we may be having a relatively regular switchover.
Plus (and maybe a major factor) is the strength of the CAD$...pushing to 1.02 yesterday. Crude is actually getting cheaper for Canadians(and EU, etc).
The diesel resistance here has been going on for more than a year, but I don't understand why. The near price parity occured with the low sulfur requirments, but after that it is reacting much slower to changes. Must be supply driven. Just look at the numbers of trucks on the 401. Again, would be nice to see Canadian weekly supply/demand numbers.
Personal note regarding website. I would like to talk before Tuesday. Please eMail your # and good time to call.
Thanks,
Alan
Sent.
Robert predicted this and has been predicting this. He has noted that the historically low levels of inventory must eventually impact prices.
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function." -- Dr. Albert Bartlett
Into the Grey Zone
Yawn. Record temperatures again in Washington, D.C. Nothing to see here, move along, keep shopping.
Last night, the Yankees lost a playoff game because of mayflies. Mayflies in October? Yup. It's been 85F or so in Cleveland, where the game was played. They hatched early because of the unusual weather.
And it was disgusting. The players and umpires sprayed their skin and clothing with bug spray, and it was still horrible. Poor Joba Chamberlain was covered with bugs. They were all over his face, coated his neck, and were crawling all over his hat and jersey. He was clearly affected, and completely lost the strike zone. Walked batters, hit by pitches, etc. He was lights-out before the bugs, but ended up giving up the tying run during the height of the swarm.
Saw that on CNN. Their only comment was that it was weird with no reference to its connection with the weather. But this is not "unusual" weather. Record temperatures are now usual not unusual. The use of the term "unusual" just adds to people's complacency. "Unusual" implies that this is just a passing phenomenon.
Now, when we start getting malaria in the U.S., maybe people will stand up and pay attention. In the mean time, drive those new Suburbans.
The US already has a malaria friendly climate. It used to be a common problem at least as far north as Illinois. We used DDT to wipe out the malaria mosquito.
We are in some danger of having a return due to the accidental importation of the anopheles mosquito via international travel/transportation.