Misguided Energy Policies
Posted by Robert Rapier on July 21, 2008 - 9:00am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: barbara boxer, chuck schumer, energy policy, original, politics, spr [list all tags]
I have a friend who is addicted to nicotine. His liberal friends tell him that this addiction is bad, and point out that it is costing him too much money. Therefore, they want policies passed that ensure that he can continue to consume as much as he likes, and not hurt his budget too much. They are sure that nicotine substitutes will come along soon to save the day. For reasons I detail below, I call this the Boxer approach, but it could just as easily be the Pelosi/Democratic Party approach.
His conservative friends agree that he is addicted, but their solution is to carve out areas in the U.S. where we can grow more tobacco, and therefore his addiction can at least be homegrown. Sort of like "If you are going to smoke pot, at least smoke American pot." This is the Bush approach.
It seems to me that his friends perhaps have good intentions, but their policies are misguided and don't address the root cause of the addiction. In fact, much like their policies on our addiction to oil. On one hand, the Democratic Party argues 1). We are too dependent upon fossil fuels; 2). We must find alternatives; 3). Carbon emissions are too high; and 4). We need to promote higher fuel efficiency.
Those are good points. But they can't seem to see the irrationality in one of their proposals. At a time when Americans are starting to conserve; starting to trade-in their SUVs for Priuses, it seems to be fast-becoming a core principle of the Democratic party that we should: 5). Tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to bring oil prices down so people can afford to consume more. In fact, in a recent chain letter to me, Senator Barbara Boxer - who even maintains a website on the importance of acting on global warming, stated that we must go after "real solutions on gas prices", like "releasing some oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve."
Ignoring for a moment the glaring inconsistency between this proposal and her position on global warming, just what is the purpose of the SPR?
In the event of an energy emergency, SPR oil would be distributed by competitive sale. The SPR has been used under these circumstances only twice (during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 and after Hurricane Katrina in 2005). Its formidable size (700-plus million barrels) makes it a significant deterrent to oil import cutoffs and a key tool of foreign policy.
However, the calls for tapping the reserve continue to come, because high prices apparently constitute an energy emergency in some people's minds. Here American Progress defends this view:
Eight Reasons to Release Oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve
Let's look at a couple of the reasons given:
1. Record oil prices have hurt American families
Ordinary families are struggling with record high energy prices. Many families’ gas costs have increased by hundreds or even thousands of dollars a year. The price of home heating oil has doubled in the past year. And the Department of Energy predicts that average electricity prices will increase by 5 percent this year, and go up 9 percent in 2009.
Yes, and we are seeing significant drops in gasoline demand as a result. You know what that means? The people who argue for lower fossil fuel usage and by extension lower carbon emissions should be happy. The kicker is that the author of this article, Daniel J. Weiss, is "the Director of Climate Strategy at American Progress, where he leads the Center's clean energy and climate advocacy campaign." What's wrong with this picture? Do climate advocates think getting people to change is going to be easy? No, there is going to be cost, pain, and inconvenience. But people respond to price, and we are seeing that now. It is not hypothetical, it is observable. What people don't respond to are feel-good speeches about the need to cut back.
Let's look at one more:
6. There is plenty of oil in the reserve to withstand a supply disruption
The SPR has more oil than ever before—706 million barrels, which is 98 percent capacity. Selling 50 million barrels over 100 days would still leave it filled to over 90 percent capacity. This is enough oil to cope with a complete foreign supply disruption for nearly two months, assuming zero reduction in demand in the wake of such a catastrophe.
This is just an argument that the SPR is bigger than it needs to be. Yet the authorization to fill (eventually to 1 billion barrels) was made by congress as a part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Per the DOE, it the filling of the SPR is also funded by royalties on oil companies extracting oil from the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS):
The royalty-in-kind program applies to oil owed to the U.S. government by producers who operate leases on the federally-owned Outer Continental Shelf. These producers are required to provide from 12.5 percent to 16.7 percent of the oil they produce to the U.S. government. The government can either acquire the oil itself or receive the equivalent dollar value.
As someone who is very concerned about disruptions of future oil supplies, I want a healthy volume in the SPR. I want it tapped only in the event of something like a major supply disruption that actually threatens to sharply reduce the amount of available oil. I didn't want it tapped at $20 oil, and I won't want it tapped at $500 oil. If my choice in the long run is between a gallon of gasoline for $30 or no gasoline at all, guess which one I am going to pick?
Let's also not forget the history here. A story right here at TOD shows that Chuck Schumer has been Wrong on the SPR Since 1999, when oil was hitting the outrageous value of $20 a barrel. He won't learn his lesson, as here Schumer (and others) are at it again in 2004 (which was also an election year). Oil at that time had risen to $35 a barrel. Here's another TOD essay that recognizes Schumer's misguided logic in tapping the SPR.
Where would we be had we heeded these perpetual calls to tap the reserve? With higher gasoline consumption, higher carbon emissions, a drained SPR, and Senator Schumer still complaining that we need to reduce our dependence on oil. We would be much more vulnerable to supply disruptions, and our financial position with respect to the SPR would be billions of dollars worse off than it is now (i.e., down 100 million barrels or more from today's level with oil at $130/bbl). Think about that. Heeding Schumer's calls would have endangered national security, and put us in a multi-billion dollar hole.
High fuel prices have led to many positive changes in people's behaviors. Demand is down, fuel efficiency is being embraced, and sales of SUVs are down. The very same people who advocate these things are the same people who would reverse these positive changes by tapping the SPR. It appears that they don't understand that cheap energy is the very reason we became so dependent upon fossil fuels. We won't wean from fossil fuels if they remain cheap. As I have noted before, a big reason that Europe's per capita energy usage is half that of the U.S. is because they have maintained prices at artificially high levels. This caused them to develop different living/transportation/consumption preferences than is the case in the U.S.
If people are forced to tighten budgets - and heaven forbid carpool, ride the bus, or simply drive less as a result of high prices - that does not constitute an energy emergency. We need to get past these ridiculous calls to tap the SPR, and highlight the inconsistencies (and past history) of those who advocate such a move.
In the next essay, I am going to address President Bush's calls to answer our addiction to oil with more drilling. It makes as much sense to tell a heroin addict that what they really need is homegrown heroin. I think there is a compromise that may satisfy both sides.



The SPR is that secret stash of cigs buried in waterproof bags in the backyard. It does NOTHING to cure our addiction !
We are facing a chronic oil shortage, and the SPR is specifically designed for only acute (and relatively short lived) oil shortages.
The wrong weapon for the fight we face.
Don't bring a knife to a gunfight
Best Hopes for Carrots for Nicotine Addicts, and Non-Oil Transportation# for Oil Addicts
Alan
1. Electrified Railroads
2. Urban Rail
3. Bicycles
4. TOD/walkable neighborhoods
4.5 - NEVs & EVs
Along the same lines as your chronic/acute reference Alan, I think the “addiction” analogy is misleading.
We certainly are addicted to some of the wastefull uses of oil but IMO we need oil to live so maybe a better analogy would be like Blood Plasma. (still a needle in the arm)
It is a mistake to compare oil to drugs and imply that it is BAD and we should feel guilty, (maybe even declare a War On Oil?) this is the same old twisted propaganda mindset and we should not adopt it, we should resist it and inject rational terms and discussion.
If the general public only new the true value of oil as the live blood of civilization then it might be treated differently.
No dis on you RR just my feelings.
Cheers
I'm in agreement with this. RR's astute analysis notwithstanding, the addiction metaphor is completely wrong.
We do not need alcohol, tobacco, or drugs. We can "kick" these habits.
We need energy, and in this culture we really need oil.
The ninety-year-old woman down the street from me is not "addicted" to her oil furnace. She doesn't need a twelve-step program to get off her addiction to a heating system.
Addiction metaphors also lead to AA/substance abuse treatment claptrap.
There must be a better way to describe our DEPENDENCE on oil.
So my ninety-year-old neighbor is ADDICTED to her oil furnace?
She doesn't need it? Her need is the same as an alcoholic's need?
Most people are NOT addicted to alcohol or drugs. EVERYONE needs energy in some way.
I'll ignore your personal attack in your last statement.
So my ninety-year-old neighbor is ADDICTED to her oil furnace?
Your neighbor needs energy. Energy can come from many different sources. Just because we have made it such that oil is the cheap, easy option doesn't change the fact that it is an addiction.
OK. Suit yourself. You're a good writer and probably can get good mileage out of the addiction metaphor.
But I don't buy it.
An addiction is a biological dependence on a substance that could be completely eradicated from one's life, unlike energy, which must come in some form. One doesn't need a substance to replace the alcohol, the way one need vast quantities of SOMETHING to continue to run one's highway, heating, and food systems.
My poor neighbor literally can do nothing to "get off" her furnace. She's on meals on wheels!
You say "we" have made oil the cheap option, and that may be the key to seeing where the metaphor breaks down: addiction is about one individual's body. There is no "we" that has forced the alcoholic into his addiction.
My last word: alcoholism/addiction is to oil dependence as a flagellum is to planet Saturn.
Yes, food, energy, etc., they are all necessities. That makes the true framing of this problem even more dire and complex than is presented by the addiction metaphor.
So, I hear what you're saying, but you are making it sound like Robert is being intentionally obtuse in his usage of the terms.
Addiction may not be the most accurate frame in this case, but it is the easier frame to understand for many--and it is probably 60 or 70% valid.
Perhaps in an informed group like this, the addiction frame doesn't work. Or it may be better said that we are addicted to the "easy" nature of oil? or addicted to the lifestyle it currently provides?
Even in the cartoon up top, Uncle Sam represents a lot of different ideas. We can deconstruct what all of that means, but we can also get the simple message: there is a problem and it needs to be addressed by means other the providing more of what causes the disease.
Banish the thought!
I wish him luck navigating this troublesome trope (as it were).
Thought banished. :)
"Or it may be better said that we are addicted to the "easy" nature of oil? or addicted to the lifestyle it currently provides?"
That suggests there's something wrong with "easy", or a "lifestyle" of inexpensive, abundant material posessions.
I would agree that we need to bite the bullet and invest in our future by replacing oil with energy sources that are more sustainable; reduce our impact on the planet; and move beyond trying to achieve happiness solely through posessions, but I'm troubled by the implication that there's something morally wrong with abundant energy and prosperity per se.
An addiction is a biological dependence on a substance that could be completely eradicated from one's life, unlike energy, which must come in some form.
And there's the rub. Energy. We may need energy, but energy comes in many forms. I hope we change out an oil addiction some day for a more desirable addiction to solar power.
Think of this in terms of food. A person can be addicted to sugar. This isn't changed by the fact that they require food for survival. Just as all food is not sugar, all energy is not oil.
And thats what virtually everyone needs to develop...FLEXIBILITY. One is "addicted" when the only way to heat the home is an obselete oil furnace. Or the way over-powered petrol/diesel swilling vehicle. Or living in a exurb/suburb way away from your job/public trans.
My current fav gripe is the lack(in this market) of high-quality ULSDiesel. Ya cant have small, clean-running diesel engines without it. Without jumping thru a bunch of hoops. Many vehicles could easily be getting 30% better mileage.
And certainly most alternatives need to be pursued with gusto.
Just like the smack addict bemoaning the adulterated cut rubbish that is pushed instead of the nice clean pure heroin...I've got it! We should invade the heroin supplying countries and get holdof their really good stuff. Now who supplies heroin again...?
"An addiction is a biological dependence on a substance that could be completely eradicated from one's life (OIL), unlike energy, which must come in some form (electricity)"
"My poor neighbor literally can do nothing to "get off" her furnace"
So buy her an electric heater. Or a good sleeping bag.
http://www.timesargus.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080720/FEATURES05...
TIA.
addiction metaphor. But I don't buy it.
Addiction would normally imply an unhealthy relationship.
I doubt any regular reader of TOD would claim the human - oil relationship is 'healthy'.
No, your ninety year old neighbor is not addicted to her oil (furnace).
Maybe here is where the difference lies between our two points of view. When I see oil addiction, I am not referring to an individual, but to an economic system. You are carrying the metaphor down to the individual (perhaps because you have accepted the validity of the economic system?)
Please be careful not to conflate oil and energy. It is true that most people are not addicted to alcohol or drugs. But that tells us little about the addict. The non-addict uses alcohol to relax, as a social lubricant, or perhaps just to work against heart disease. Addicts define themselves in relationship to alcohol.
As for the "personal attack" - it was not meant as such. It was meant to point out that you were using the same sort of "excusing" language that an addict uses to justify their use to themself. I learned this the hard way. I did not intend it as an insult.
The oil furnace is something I think about every winter. I don't live in the Northeast so I don't know that much about them. But I always wonder what it would take to covert those to electricity.
It is just embarassing to take heating oil from Hugo Chavez.
I would love to see wind turbines generating the electricity to heat those homes in the winter. Is that an insane fantasy?
I've been thinking about this a lot as well since we have oil heat and I can only expect that the cost of heating our house is going to become unaffordable in a few years or less. Without going into the full-on solar panels, I've been looking into solar air heating panels. It's considerably more affordable, but I need to find out if it will supply enough heat here in "sunny" Seattle.
Crunchy, speaking as a former Seattleite, I suspect you'll have better results with a ground loop heat pump than with the solar air heating modules. You might want to compare them before you buy.
Chris - thanks for the tip. I'll see what I can dig up. Ha ha ha.
BTW, I just finished reading your book, Profit from the Peak, and I totally loved it. I'll be letting my peeps know about it as many are looking for a book on Peak Oil that isn't all doomsday and conjecture. You guys did an awesome job - I can't say enough good things about it, but I'll stop here.
Thanks very much! I'm glad you found it informative. Good luck with your project.
Hi Not a Rock,
Provided you have sufficient panel capacity, it's a relatively simple matter of installing electric coils in the supply plenum. Dual fuel space heating is popular in Québec where discounted electricity is used when outside temperatures are above -12C or -15C (it varies by region); as temperatures fall and the Hydro-Québec network is more heavily taxed, an outside temperature sensor automatically flips the system back to oil. It's a smart approach -- the customer gets a great deal (at 4.33 cents per kWh, it's like buying oil at less than $1.50 per gallon) and the utility gets to drop load as colder temperatures ramp up demand. Furthermore, it discourages homeowners from replacing their existing oil heating systems with a 25 or 30 kW electric furnace which would only further add to peak demand during these extremely cold periods.
That said, if electricity is to be consumed for space heating purposes, it should be used to operate a heat pump where you can typically double or triple the amount of heat supplied from every kWh consumed.
Cheers,
Paul
I think heat pumps only give you better efficiency above freezing....to get double or triple the heat as you would get from resistive means 40-50oF. At -15C you would probably do better with resistive, or if possible an advantageous set of circumstances for a ground loop.
If anyone knows more, I would really like to learn.
-dr
Hi dr_dr,
Actually, their performance is better than what you may think. I live in Zone 4 (7,800 HDD) and in this climate the HSPF rating of the Fujitsu 9RLQ and larger 12RLQ are 11.0 and 10.55 respectively. Both models operate down to -15C (i.e., Hydro-Québec’s transfer point) and over the course of the winter would provide an average of 3.1+ kWh of heat for every kWh consumed.
A couple days ago, I made reference to Mitsubishi's new h2i line of Mr. Slim ductless heat pumps. These models supply 100 per cent of their rated heating capacity at -15C, 87 per cent at -20C and 75 per cent at -25C and can operate for more than four hours at these sub-freezing temperatures before executing a defrost cycle. The discharge air temperature at -25C is +38C. Their HSPF is 9.4, so the seasonal COP is 2.76 -- for a Hydro-Québec customer under the dual-energy rate structure, the operating costs of this particular heat pump are the equivalent of fuel oil priced at 13.8 cents a litre or 52 cents per gallon (82% AFUE).
I developed a spreadsheet model based on ten-years' worth of hourly temperature data to verify the theoretical performance of the Fujitsu 12RLQ and 15RLQ. My home is a 40-year old, 2,500 sq. ft. Cape Cod that has been extensively upgraded in terms of its thermal efficiency and I estimate my current space heating demand at 12,277 kWh per year (1,400 litres/370 U.S. gallons of fuel oil at 82% AFUE). If my numbers are correct, a 12RLQ can easily supply 80 per cent of my total annual needs and the seasonal COP in this case is an estimated 3.32.
The spreadsheet is over 58,000 rows in size, but you can view the summary data (and assumptions) in PDF format here: http://www.datafilehost.com/download-a8dfaf4c.html
Cheers,
Paul
Think of your ninety-year-old neighbor as one of those brain cells with all the opioid receptors on it. Without the drugs, that brain cell will die. But at the organism level, it is an addiction. Think of "civilization", or "democracy" or "the free world" or whatever as the organism, and you have analogy.
Like all analogies, perhaps it is not perfect ;)
Agreed - no analogy is perfect, but this one seems quite apt.
I should mention that according to the NIH, opiate withdrawal, including heroin, is rarely fatal (despite being very unpleasant). Whereas untreated DTs in severe alcoholics has something like a 30% fatality rate.
Heavy morphine users have been known to live into their 80s and beyond when the dosage is regulated. Alcohol, on the other hand, when used to excess is *guaranteed* to destroy your liver and other organs.
Non-moderate alcohol consumption is a dirty, dirty drug.
We're starting to get the shakes. I need a drink.
If we have to stick with a medical metaphor (seems like everything is medicalized these days-- similar to the Middle Ages when everything had a religious metaphor) then perhaps we need to think of it as a legitimate pharmaceutical -- like Crixivan (or whatever) to an AIDS patient. They can't survive without it, but they aren't "addicted" in the normal sense of the word.
Said by MikeB:
The addiction is not to a heating system, but to a heating system powered by fuel oil. Her addiction is an absolute refusal to switch to a heating system that uses a different fuel even though the rising price of fuel oil may break her budget or the declining production may cause shortages leaving her with a cold house. Her addiction is the assertion that fuel oil is a necessity while it was absent for the vast majority of human history. Warm shelter is a necessity, but a shelter heated by fuel oil is not. The analogy to an addiction lies in the attitude: a refusal to acknowledge the problem and fix it.
"We need energy, and in this culture we really need oil."
seem just one small step away from
" 'merkuns have a right to cheap oil".
The ninety year old lady lving down the street, in a house heated only for herself an no others is the real problem that she is addicted to. "Independent" living is just so un-natural for humans and is only made possible by the massive fossil fuel subsidy we enjoy today. In earlier times, she would be living with and cared for by her family or she'd be dead. We are going to have to get off the idea of heating vast cavernous homes that are occupied by very few people. Learning to live locally means thinking about the space you occupy even within the home.
We (the USA) will certainly need substantial amounts off oil (more than we produce) for quite some time to function at anything close to current levels.
But, longer term (an absolute minimum of 20 years IMO, 30 years without an emergency), we can reduce oil use to specialty applications such as lubricants, farming (ammonia power has possibilities but that will take longer), aviation, shipping and a few others.
Step One is to create a Non-Oil Transportation system as an alternative to our oil based one for many, but not all needs & wants. Step Four may be a phased shut-down of our oil based transportation system.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Oil is used for lubricants, and for plastics and pharmaceuticals; fertilizer comes from natural gas.
We are not addicted to oil for which there is compelling need. Such as the above.
Oil does not have to be used for transportation (the largest waste of oil today), or for power (and it is not). We need to preserve what is left for future plastics, lubricants and pharmaceuticals; we need to hold on to natural gas to use as stock for fertilizers.
That is not to say we are not addicted to oil. Our addiction is in the form of automobile transportation. But, the administration says to drill, drill, drill so they can drive their Hummers and SUVs.
If you want to make changes, it will be in mass transit (how about electric power for trains; high speed city center to city center at 450 mpg without using any oil), including street railways, short range electric automobiles (gets you to the bus station/street car or to the supermarket, but no good for suburban commuting), etc. Also, bike paths along all streets and roads.
So... I do not mind the metaphor of addiction, so long as it is understood that it is in that specific area. My 90 year old neighbor can keep her furnace - but maybe we will want to run it on electric power at some point?
Now there is a bold assertion of the irrational if I ever did see one. Do you realize what you have said here? This is precisely the argument every addict makes.
As for oil not being "BAD" - this is an assumption on your part, please do not assume that all here are going to share that viewpoint.
I am trying to look at the limits of what I think is an extremely inadequate metaphor, and you keep attacking me.
This is the last time I respond to you.
mikeB - this was in response to souperman's post, not yours.
But I do wonder why you see this as a personal attack? It is an observation about the choice of language used. Is that not what you are doing by arguing against the addiction metaphor? I'm simply saying the the language souperman used (and that you used elsewhere) was actually consistent with the metaphor you said you were rejecting.
Please, (no sarcasm intended), explain to me the offense taken and I will gladly apologize and refrain from using such an approach in the future.
Ehh... fact is we are going to run out of oil. Then those who "need oil to live" will die. And life will be better forever after.
We certainly are addicted to some of the wastefull uses of oil but IMO we need oil to live so maybe a better analogy would be like Blood Plasma. (still a needle in the arm)
I disagree. We don't 'need' oil to live. At present, we need oil to live the lifestyle to which we have become accustomed. In the long run, we need energy. To live our current lifestyle, we need a lot of energy. We could, in my opinion, make some radical changes to our living arrangements and kick the oil habit. At the least, we can drastically reduce it, but it would be very hard, expensive, and require a lot of sacrifice.
Thus, I think the addiction analogy - which of course was not my invention - is appropriate. Addictions are hard to beat. The heroin addict 'needs' heroin lest they suffer horrible withdrawal symptoms. But the fact that they need it doesn't mean it isn't an addiction, nor that withdrawal is impossible.
As far as your comments on the life blood of civilization or that our dependence upon oil isn't bad - many of those concerned about global warming or peak oil would disagree sharply. It is bad in that it enables us to engage in unsustainble practices that will come to an abrupt end as supplies deplete.
There was civilization before oil. The oil is going to run out. Yet I believe there will be civilization after oil.
And it's the path between here and there that gives me almost complete pause. I continue to hope that we are smart enough to "go backwards" where we need to and "go forwards" where we can.