Georgia Conflict - Open Thread #2
Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 11, 2008 - 9:10am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: cease-fire, georgia, russia [list all tags]
Georgia has asked for a cease-fire, but Russia continues its air raids. Bombing originally began in the breakaway province of South Ossetia. Russia is now demanding that Georgian forces disarm in another breakaway province, Abkhazia, or Russian troops will move in. This would be a major escalation of the war.
A few stories below the fold:
Russian Jets Bomb Georgian Targets; Georgia Signs Cease-Fire Pledge
Georgia said a Russian general in Abkhazia, the other breakaway province, issued an ultimatum on Monday to Georgian forces nearby to disarm or face Russian troops moving into Georgian-controlled territory.
That would be a major escalation in the Russian-Georgian conflict. With most Georgian forces concentrated near South Ossetia, it could be hard for Georgia to repel the Abkhazian offensive.
International envoys flew into the region late Sunday in an effort to end the conflict before it spreads throughout the Caucasus. Mr. Kouchner, representing the EU, said he met with Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and found him "determined to make peace."
Georgia: America admits it has few options for dealing with Russia-Georgia war"
American diplomats have conceded that there are few options for dealing what President George W Bush has branded a 'dangerous escalation' by Russia and ruled out military intervention on behalf of Georgia.
Jim Jeffrey, President Bush's deputy national security adviser, said that White House had told Russia: "If the disproportionate and dangerous escalation on the Russian side continues...this will have a significant long-term impact on U.S.-Russian relations."
This is no pipeline war but an assault on Russian influence
The sudden crisis has put the United States on the spot. While supporting Georgia's Nato ambitions, the White House was leery of military action, knowing it could do little in the face of a powerful Russian response. Visiting the former Soviet republic in 2005, President Bush urged Saakashvili to keep cool. "Georgia's leaders know that the peaceful resolution of conflict is essential to your integration into the transatlantic community," he told a huge rally in Tbilisi.
In Georgia Clash, a Lesson on U.S. Need for Russia
“Strategically, the Russians have been sending signals that they really wanted to flex their muscles, and they’re upset about Kosovo,” the diplomat said. He was alluding to Russia’s anger at the West for recognizing Kosovo’s independence from Serbia. . . .
For the Bush administration, the choice now becomes whether backing Georgia — which, more than any other former Soviet republic has allied with the United States — on the South Ossetia issue is worth alienating Russia at a time when getting Russia’s help to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions is at the top of the United States’ foreign policy agenda.
Georgia Conflict Tests Candidates on Foreign Policy
The candidates' responses to the crisis were initially very different in tone. Sen. McCain forcefully blamed Russia, a country he has taken a hard stand on in the past. He has called for ejecting Russia from the Group of Eight leading nations and has mocked President George W. Bush's statement that he saw goodness in former Russian President Vladimir Putin. Sen. McCain said that when he looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, he "saw three letters: K-G-B." . . .
Sen. Obama's initial response was more measured, not blaming either side. "Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full-scale war," he said.
Oil up as Georgia conflict disrupts shipments
The conflict over South Ossetia has prompted the suspension of shipments of Azeri crude oil and refined fuel from two of Georgia's ports, Azerbaijan's state energy firm SOCAR said on Saturday.
Kazakhstan also stopped shipments of its crude from Georgia's Batumi. Neither Azerbaijan nor Kazakhstan rely on Georgian ports for their exports as both also use crude pipelines.
A major oil pipeline exporting Azeri crude passes through Georgia but was disabled last week on Turkish territory before the conflict erupted.
Georgia: Russia 'conducting cyber war'
Several Georgian state computer servers have been under external control since shortly before Russia's armed intervention into the state commenced on Friday, leaving its online presence in dissaray.
While the official website of Mikheil Saakashvili, the Georgian President, has become available again, the central government site, as well as the homepages for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defence , remain down. Some commercial websites have also been hijacked.
Also: Previous Open Thread
I wonder if one of the Russian demands will be the re naming of George Bush Highway from the airport? Georgia was one of "coalition of the wiling" client states, and, when not beating the opposition in the streets, a reliable US outpost in the region.
That'll teach countries to ally with the US, eh?
If I were Putin, I would require them to keep the name as a constant reminder.
Alan
RE: This is no pipeline war but an assault on Russian Influence
Looking at the map of the area posted in the previous thread, the Caucus mountain range presents a natural boundary between states and that's where the boundary has been drawn previously. From a strategic point of view, those mountains are much like the Great Wall of China, that is, a natural fortification. It would seem to be in Russia's interest to have easy access to the southern side of those mountains and the existing tunnel between South and North Ossetia provide that ready access. However, The tunnel could easily be blocked if one had unrestrained access to either end, so I think the Russian's primary motive is to secure that tunnel. With that secured, they might maintain a base (or bases) in South Ossetia to extend their influence in the region. Of course, with Russian control near the pipeline, there is always the possibility that in some future situation, they could assert control over the flow.
The U.S. appears to be doing the same in Iraq, with the construction of several large military bases that may not be returned to Iraq control. Those Iraqi bases provide the possibility of close support to any military action in the Persian Gulf, as well as basing points should troops be sent into the area as the result of future "interesting" situations. The Russians could claim that their actions are identical to the U.S.'s actions in Iraq, with some justification, I think.
E. Swanson
It seems to me that the broader implication of this conflict is that it has hardened US/Russian relations and that cooperation within the UN Security Council is less likely.
The current US/EU track on Iran is to ratchet up sanctions through the Security Council, and that appears to be a non-starter. Just before Georgia launched their attack, there was an article reporting that the US had told Russia that blocking additional Iranian sanctions moved Israel closer to military action against.
If the UN seizes up over Georgia, then Israel seems more likely to act unilaterally.
Georgia declared a unilateral cease fire a couple days ago, then attacked 12 hours later, after the South Ossetians agreed to the case fire. The only reason Georgia is calling for one now is because they're losing. I don't look for the Russians to pay it any heed whatsoever.
The big question is whether Saakashvili is another US proxy who over-estimated US support (q.v. Saddam Hussein), or whether the US put him up to the attack to distract the Russians prior to some sort of operation against Iran. If it is the latter, it would keep the Bush administrations perfect record of being behind every war of this millenium.
"The big question is whether Saakashvili is another US proxy who over-estimated US support (q.v. Saddam Hussein), or whether the US put him up to the attack to distract the Russians prior to some sort of operation against Iran."
"But Russians view the international war that broke up Yugoslavia as a practice run for breaking up the Russian Caucasus, first by arming the Chechen secessionist Dzhokar Dudayev; then by financing anti-Russian terrorism in the Russian provinces of Chechnya and Ingushetia; and now by the Georgian military thrust against South Ossetia.
Since the US and the European Union have so recently compelled Serbia to accept the Albanian takeover of Serbia's Kosovo province, the overwhelming Russian view is that this will not be allowed to happen again. "Ossetia is not Kosovo" is a widespread refrain in Moscow today.
"If [former Yugoslav president] Slobodan Milosevic should be put on trial, the opinion here is - so too should Saakashvili," says a leading Moscow analyst. "
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/JH12Ag02.html
The US/NATO/Israel must do something soon.
Israel gets 20% of it's oil from the BTC and Azerbaijan.
And now zero oil is flowing thru Georgia.
Russia will squeeze Georgia to continue this until it
get s control of the BTC.
Those with the power to destroy have the ultimate power.
Funny, but I would put S. Ossetia on the other side of the Kosovo analogy. Like Kosovo, it wants autonomy from its ethnically distinct parent (Georgia). It was specifically the example of Kosovo that encouraged the S. Ossetians to break away in the first place. But with typical two-faced US policy, splitting Kosovo off from Serbia was good (because we don't like Serbia), but splitting off S. Ossetia from Georgia is bad (because we like Georgia).
I've read that something like 90% of the South Ossetians hold Russian passports. They'd be much happier being part of Russia than Georgia. Saakashvili attacked 12 hours after suckering the South Ossetians into a cease fire, and the attack killed a bunch of Russian troops.
Given the treacherous attack, the sentiments of South Ossetia, and the way the US has been trying to use Georgia against Russia, I wouldn't expect the Russians to stop until they've secured S.O. and given the Georgian's a thorough drubbing, and they may require Saakashvili's removal before they'll stop.
Just a note about the Atimes citation, the Chechens and Dudayev armed themselves from USSR armories and declared independence long before any US or UK diplomat could find Chechnya on a map or undertsand its importance enough to provide it support. That the BTC was taken out by the PKK days before the attack, also raises questions about PKK-Russian ties.
I think you may be right about this being a cover for a possible strike against Iran
"SPECIAL REPORT: Kuwait Readying for War in Gulf?"
http://www.metimes.com/International/2008/08/11/special_report_kuwait_re...
"The small oil-rich emirate of Kuwait – situated between Iraq, Iran and an un-enviable geographic hard place on the northern end of the Persian Gulf – has reportedly activated its "Emergency War Plan" as a massive U.S. and European armada is reported heading for the region."
I read the comments in this thread with amazement... I guess not being in the US, I was spared the US version of events in the MSM.
However the alternative press paints a different picture... the Georgia event needs to be seen as the start of the Iranian campaign proper (or, WW III as some say).
Some URLs for your reading pleasure:
08/08/08 The Beginning of the Summer Olympics and the Third World War
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/080808-beginning-of-summer-oly...
Massive US Naval Armada Heads For Iran
http://europebusines.blogspot.com/2008/08/massive-us-naval-armada-heads-...
Global Research
http://www.globalresearch.ca/
in particular:
Bush's War in Georgia; Will it be the Flyswatter or the Blunderbuss?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=9791
Putin would not be wagging his finger in Bush's face before leaving the Olympics if this was a Russian-planned event.
His problem now is how to save the situation while dealing with the planned attack on Iran without ending up looking like Hitler II in western eyes. I've been watching Putin for a long time ... initially I didn't trust him, but over the years I've come to see just how smart he really is... and able and willing to do what is necessary for his country.
Remember there is a much bigger money/power game going on behind the scenes, we just get to see some occasional moves but are ignorant of the rest.
Quite a threat from a President that has only few months left in office.
"Joseph R. Wood" ;
Dear Joe:
Am still in Tbilisi. No dount you are totally informed on the situation. However, some observations and suggestions.
- The destruction of Georgia's military capacity will be ttoal by the time this is over and Moscow will not stop until it has achieved this. While Moscow prevaricates on ceasefires, it is changing the reality on the ground.
- It is very likely that they may then move to attack some parts of civil infrastructure.
- Very unlikely that they will withdraw from the two territories for some time and the push on Zugdidi and Gori are about creating negotiable buffer zones.
- End game is regime change - preferably now, but will live with longer term asphyxiation.
How to resist?
a. Make sure that US is united in resistance to this
b. Drag Europe by the nose
c. Kill the notion that the Georgians started this - the scale and intensity of the Russian attack bear all the hallmarks of a well planned and inevitable operation. To suggest that Georgia started is to agree that Poland caused the Nazi attack on it in 1939.
If there isn't much you can do, talking big is a popular choice.
If you can't beat up the bully that's picking on you, you could always find somebody weaker to beat up on.
So what do people think that Russia's endgame is?
IMO Russia will demand:
Georgian military expelled from all of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Explicit autonomy for these 2 regions.
Destruction of georgia's more advanced weapon sustems (air force and military radar facilities).
I wouldn't expect the Russians to grab land outside these 2 regions. Although it wouldn't surprise me if they crossed those borders to briefly occupy and destroy Georgian military installations.
So what do people think that Russia's endgame is?
Russia will regain Batumi, saahkasvili will be gone
and Georgia will join the SCO.
Armenia will be stronger.
Another lose/lose/lose for America.
Main problem facing America is that the Bush presidency -- and arguably American administrations in general -- is ideologically driven. Not that this necessarily puts US foreign policy at a disadvantage. Ideology certainly motivates: people will die for it.
Disadvantage, however, is that it narrows perspective. The neocons who put together the Project for a New American Century are go-getters but they do not see nuance.
Where brawns is all that is needed to settle a question, the neocons will send in the guns.
Putin, on the other hand, is Russia's equivalent to a latter-day Bismarck. He sees nuance. He's no doubt read -- and understands -- The Prince by Machiavelli. He straddles the world stage like a chess board.
Where both brains & brawns is needed -- in other words, strategy & diplomacy -- Putin will play the game for all it is worth.
IMO, the long term prospects for America don't look too promising: appears that neither McCain nor Obama have the caginess of Putin. Hopefully, whoever wins the White House may have enough sense to surround himself with advisers of a similar ilk.
Putinn was compared to Cardinal Richelieu in an article
I read yesterday.
Either way, no one is comparing anyone in DC
to anything but failure.
The above observation may be correct and appears to be calmly composed. I really appreciate that.
Still, I have to ask the rhetorical question in relation to the whole discussion at hand:
Who gives a flying hoot about what America wins or loses in Georgia?
It's not their business to be there to begin with - advancing their own selfish interests.
The same goes for Russia as well, of course.
The real question is: What about the people of Georgia?
They are being played like the proverbial pawn in this grand chessboard game of geopolitical strategy. Russians and Americans couldn't care less as of what happens to them. They will be sacrificed the second it makes any strategic sense.
I find it really sad that more and more of us westerners on are succumbing to the old way of cold war style thinking of "us against them". Next thing we know, we'll be building walls in some of these places with armed guards and all (sorry, scratch that... already doing that).
Is this what people really want? More war, more confrontation, more friction in international affairs?
I tend to think that we ought to consider the real living people in the middle of this - and not just perverse geopolitical games that supposedly grown up children in the military and central governments play to amuse themselves, stroke their inflated egos - in order to try and reaffirm their distorted world view.
I really don't understand the current nostalgia for cold war, but if this is indeed the way it is going to be, then roll on Iran, roll on Syria, roll on Libya, roll on Sudan, roll on the rest of the Middle East repartitioning.
Because that is exactly what we are going to get, if we continue on this "us against them" type of simplistic game theoretical zero-sum thinking: US vs. Russia, US vs China, etc.
Do people really want war this much?
Or is this all already about the 'unavoidable' resource wars for oil, access to pipelines and geo-strategic locations for bases (read: oil production/pipeline protection forces) ?
If so, then the game for peak oil is already lost. Like James Schlesinger (ex-CIA, ex-DoE) said:
I sincerely hope I'm reading the signals wrong here and all this is just standard political posturing and that it'll all blow over soon with hopefully not a single more civilian casualty added to the body count.
That's pretty much what Neville Chamberlain said, and he was of course right.
But he was also wrong.
It's a difficult thing. Sometimes it's better to just not get involved, other times it's better to jump in, balls-to-the-wall, with a full-on effort and no compromise.
But you never know for sure which it was until afterwards.
The latest report from the BBC has Russian troops in Senaki, which is in Georgia proper near Abkhazia. If this is true then it appears that the Russians are going to sweep in from the Georgian side of the Kodori Gorge in order to expell the Georgian troops holding the position.
BBC report:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/7554507.stm
Map:
http://encarta.msn.com/map_701509822/abkhazia.html
This is a clearly aggressive move. Russia is intent on not just expelling Georgian troops from the disputed areas, but an undisputed military victory and degradation of the Georgian armed forces.
Regardless of who started this Russia is going to be the new mentor for whoever is the next leader of Georgia.
Your already behind. Russia has invaded areas well away from those previously mentioned.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7554507.stm
I'd guess they want a puppet regime in Georgia, doing exactly what they are told.
Turkey have to be getting a bit worried.
The Turks have been living next to a Georgia taking orders from the Kremlin for centuries. Indeed, the Turks and Georgians (muslims vs christians) have been enemies for most of their national existence (centuries). It's a return to a very longstanding status quo ante, so what do the Turks have to be worried about?
Of course, it isn't like there has never been any past precedent of Russia conquering, occupying, and annexing neighboring states.
Were Russia to take the whole of Georgia and forceably bring it back into the fold of the Russian Federation, this would place the BTC pipeline under its control. It would also send quite a message to the other former soviet republics. Not quite "checkmate", but quite a big move nevertheless.
When the electricity comes back on and gas is moving thru the pipes will be the sure sign that Russia is back
in charge.
And the women can quit breaking up their furniture to cook with.
;}
Same for Iraq BTW
Control of all energy flows to the EU, and economic and military superiority over all the Central states. This is just the beginning.
Really I don't think they are worried about the US right now, but in building a buffer (economic, energy, and military) vs China long-term.
I think the endgame is pretty obvious. When this ends Russia will have neutralised the security threat represented by Georgia, it will leave no possibility for its return and it will de facto have control over the pipeline strengthening its control over energy exports.
Having played its hand, Russia will then have to act quickly to neutralise US influence over Europe. Any reaction against Russia by Europe will likely cause Russia to cut energy exports during the winter, which given the current trend may be colder than usual. Ukraine also will have to be neutralised as a threat to Russia and will likely be leaned on heavily.
Iran is now probably a key element in any Russian plans for the US. The overall plan will be to soften US power so as to allow the emergence of a Russia and China as global power players on a par with the US. This begs the question of what China's role is in this and what forthcoming action can be expected of from China. When the Olympics finish, will China make its own power play?
The ball is in play, everyone will now need to make their moves. I think we are seeing the start of a major shift in global power relationships.
China announces imminent takeover of Taiwan, by force if necessary.
Taiwan asks for US assistance.
US remains strangely silent, knowing China has it by the balls as a holder of massive amounts of currency and debt.
Conservatives blame Clinton.
few comments :
Multiple sources now reporting that Russian forces have advanced outside Abkhazia into the town of Senaki. This has nothing to do with "protection of russian citizens" any more.
The reports by russian media would be hilarious if the topic wasnt that serious.
Here is a video of russian jet attacking BBC news crew yesterday.
censorship?
Dunno, its also available at BBCs own site
I guess it is in breach of BBC copyright so youtube blocked it on request.
I just viewed it on YouTube in US. 10:30 pdt
Perhaps some of you out there with a better knowledge of the oil transport infrastructure of the region than I have might be able to address the following hypothetical question:
If the US should impose a military blockade of Iran, thus denying it imports of refined petroleum products, how feasible would it be for such refined products to be supplied by Russia, either via water through the Caspian Sea or via land by pipelines going to Iran through Armenia, Azerbaijan, or Turkmenistan (assuming there are any)?
In other words, how capable is Russia of doing something analogous to a Berlin Airlift for Iran, but in this case strictly for refined petroleum products?
(This whole question, of course, is based on the presumption that Russia would want to stick its neck out to help Iran in the first place.)
I suppose that if Russia really wanted to play hardball, they could shut down the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline and not open it back up until the US blockade against Iran is lifted. They could also squeeze the gas flow to Europe to further drive the point home.
Looks to me like we're in the first inning of a very dangerous game.
About that Georgia cease fire:
Reuters North American News Service
Aug 11, 2008 09:37 EST
GORI, Georgia, Aug 11 (Reuters) - At least six Georgian attack helicopters bombed targets in the region around the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali, a Reuters witness said.
http://wiredispatch.com/news/?id=290686
And this is the first time that Russia is attacking
since WWI while US forces are in situ.
Mike Ruppert has written a couple of posts on the war.
Georgia (US) vs. Ossetia (Russia)
Saturday, August 09, 2008
http://mikeruppert.blogspot.com/
Ruppert's take is interesting. Even though he avoided the fact that it appears the west may have initiated the fight, he sure drive home who the beneficiary was. Could it be possible the Russia manipulated that situation to look like they were retaliating when in actuality they started it? What would the west do, call foul on Russia for creating a false flag in order to advance their interest in controlling as much as the world's energy supplies as possible. People might get to thinking....