Hurricane Ike, Energy Infrastructure, Refineries and Damage Models Landfall Thread (Updated 9/13 18:00 EDT)
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 14, 2008 - 9:30am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: baytown, chuck watson, galveston, henry hub, hurricane gustav, hurricane ike, loop, louisiana offshore oil port, methaz, oil, oil infrastructure, original, peak oil, refineries, refining, shut-in production, storm surge, texas city [list all tags]
Updated 9/14 900 EDT. Hurricane Ike made landfall in Galveston in an area with extensive oil infrastructure, namely over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).
Our thoughts and prayers go out to those affected by this storm. We would ask that you please keep this thread on point with Hurricane Ike and energy-related articles, stories, maps, data, and links in the comments.
(Graphics and damage forecasts moved below the fold for bandwidth and spacing...it's all still there...this continues to be the thread to accumulate resources as of 9/14.)
Path observations and damage estimates for Hurricane Ike--Methaz NHC official track Sep 13 (7:00 EDT)-click twice to enlarge
For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind
Here is the latest update from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF updating at 9/13 700 EDT:
Intensity: folks have questioned my landfall estimate, but the data supports it. Examples: Buoy 42035 broke loose from it's mooring, but apparently it passed through the eye and reported valid data. See attached plot (note: it's below the fold) - peak winds 55 kts/gusts to 75 kts. RLOT2 failed at 4z, last report was 50kts/65kts, water level 11ft above normal. The station near Texas City, in the left eye wall, peaked at 60 knots. Surge peaked about 12 feet. All of the data indicates landfall wind speeds were no more than 85 knots 2min average winds. The NHC estimated 110mph/95knts "sustained" (whatever that is; nothing measures a "sustained" wind), which would be about 92 knots 2 min average, but as noted earlier they always err on the high side.
Inland areas do NOT seem to be experiencing significant two minute average winds above hurricane force. Don't be mislead by the media reports of "hurricane force wind gusts". Gusts don't count. Scientific definitions matter. I get "hurricane force wind gusts" in thunderstorms here in Savannah all the time.
Impacts: I think the most severe impacts will be confined to the barrier islands. Galveston probably got whacked hard. But I don't think any of the refineries will suffer major damage, unless something broke that shouldn't have. It looks like Baytown never caught the peak surge. Texas City might have seen some flooding, but I doubt it was severe.
Don't get me wrong, there will be a lot of damage from this event - insured losses in the $15 to $20 Billion range, storm total impacts in excess of $60 Billion (if you include evacuation costs, etc.). But with what I see right now, my guess would be that the petrochemical industry recovers fairly quickly, with refinery down times in the days to 2 week time frame, not months. I think the biggest problem is going to be staffing and debris cleanup. The infrastructure was probably OK, but power and crews with damaged homes and cleanup issues will be a big problem.
Harder numbers later today, but my estimates from yesterday are probably pretty close on outage probabilities.
Buoy 42035 reports through Hurricane Ike-click twice to enlarge
MMS reported yesterday that:
97.5% of the oil production and 94.4% of the natural gas production in the Gulf has been shut-in; Personnel have been evacuated from a total of 596 production platforms, equivalent to 83.1% of the 717 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico; Personnel from 101 rigs have also been evacuated--this is equivalent to 83.5% of the 121 rigs currently operating in the Gulf; that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)
Here is a map of the critical pipeline structure expanding outward nationwide from the Houston/Port Arthur area:
Here are depictions of various Texas cities storm surge maps under different Hurricane scenarios from Weather Underground.
Chuck Watson has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. We will be updating this thread with damage estimate and breaking news as this story unfolds.
A note on Chuck's modeling process: we take the official NHC track, the raw computer model tracks like GFDL, HWRF, LBAR, etc, and even run our own in-house fast cycle track/intensity models. These track and intensity estimates are feed to our main hurricane model (TAOS), which computes the wind, waves, storm surge, currents, etc. at each point in our database of over 50,000 elements in the GoM like rigs, platforms, pipelines, pumping stations, refineries, etc. We then have engineering models for each type of infrastructure that calculates the damage and estimated down time for that element, as well as downstream impacts (eg if a pipeline is down, the upstream elements can't pump and the downstream elements don't get product).
PRODUCTION/INFRASTRUCTURE MAPS AND REFINERY INFORMATION
Here's a link to a really good map of oil refining/SPR storage facilities in respect to the path of Katrina (NB: OLD TRACK MAP!) and here is a listing of production and refining capability for the state of LA.
Also, here's the EIA's Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Texas Resources pages. They will also likely come in handy. Also, here's a link to the national page.
Here's a map from CNN with large and small refineries laid out. (though it is an old storm track)
Very detailed piece by RIGZONE on rigs and other infrastructure in the area. (thanks mw)
Here's a flash graphic of the oil refineries and rig maps from Hurricane Rita, it emphasizes Beaumont and Galveston's importance. Click on oil production in the tab. Note the many rigs on the east side of the storm that will get the brunt of the damage from the NE quad of the storm...hence the high long-term GOMEX oil production damage estimates below.
Here's a link to Rigzone's coverage of Ike.
You want a detailed map? Well here's the probably the best MMS map I could find. Very detailed and lots of interesting stuff. (VERY big .pdf warning)
Also, Scott Wilmoth at Simmons & Co sent us this map on deepwater infrastructure. For a complete list of deepwater development systems (includes operator, depth, location): http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/offshore/deepwatr/dpstruct.html
(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread...please leave long personal anecdotes and themes unrelated to the storm for the other upcoming 'bigger picture' posts, as some of the larger images are difficult to upload for those on dial-up)
We will be posting continued updates of track and damage forecasts here, because one never knows when one of these events may have more than just local impacts. We're not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Thankfully we have an expert meteorologist who sends us track and damage forecasts relevant to oil and gas infrastructure. What we try to do on this site, (and have been doing for over 3 years), is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation's, and our world's, energy situation. As Hurricane Ike moves nearer, and professional analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the many aspects of our energy situation that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand.
Posted in the 3rd Ike thread -
For anybody with more geographical awareness of Texas than I, the following link of river flows could be interesting -
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/tx/nwis/current/?type=flow
What is really interesting to me is that the Neches River currently has a flow of -32000 cubic feet a second - that is, the water is now flowing the wrong direction in that amount. The previous record flow for this measuring station was 8580 - the average is 5290.
http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/uv?08041780
Just more of that overhyping of data - the measured flow in the wrong direction is basically 4 times greater than the previous measured maximum. And basically, all of that water will be coming back - this storm will take a while before its effects are over, much less known.
Leanan then posted 'Some Texas official on CNN last night said that was an advantage. It'll wash in, then wash back out again. No big deal. We're not a bowl, like New Orleans.'
Sometimes, I truly wonder about people - that official is now staring at something like the 3 times the greatest amount of water measured on the Neches coming back, and it is not a big deal, because Texas isn't a bowl?
Where do you find such profound talent to be in a position of responsibility for an emergency?
EDIT - I know basically nothing of the area - Salt Water Barrier, Beaumont Texas, but to the extent that there are bridges, dams, or anything along the river banks, they are likely to be subjected to forces that their designers never imagined. Odd as this might sound, at least in a case like this, being a bowl likely helped New Orleans in this regard.
I really can't believe that people have so little understanding of what that much water will do - but then, Agnes was a rarity, and one of those once in a lifetime events. Until Floyd hit - which meant that most of the plans for the unfunded flood control work could be pulled out of the cabinets, to be ignored for the future again.
We really don't learn.
We, as a species, have always learned by building personal pattern recognition databases and by following others (mirror neurons).
In the current generation, there is no pattern bank for using the precautionary principle, or planning for a rainy day, just for consumption (on average). It is very difficult (nigh impossible) to tell someone of this mindset that things could be different, unless they are told by someone in authority or a majority of people they trust. Conventional media is primarily entertainment, and the real 'news' has shifted online..
Regarding Chucks relief (and preliminary good call on dodging an energy refining disaster), we were close to an example of where money wouldn't have the ability to bail us out (Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, General Motors, Lehman, etc.) No amount of money could have made up for months of 3-5 million bpd of refining capacity offline. And at a 1 for 1 price elasticity for oil product, that would have been a minimum 15% drop in GDP, though I think there is a probably a MOL of gasoline availability needed to keep country 'running'. What could have been....
Interesting (and dangerous) times.
The bible warns about building on shifting sands yet people build houses on sandbars in hurricane zones.
ARE people smarter than yeast?
I'm struck by how much of Chrisian imagery is agricultural, pastoral. Interestingly, I've been thinking about old testament Joseph who stored 7 years of grain for Egypt and saved the country from drought. Looking at my own grain bins and wondering what 7 years of grain storage would look like.
The book of Isaiah is about a collapse and the "saving remnant" that remains. In fact, that is Isaiah's whole job-- to inspire the "saving remnant." Maybe like Oil Drum- a voice in the wilderness. Anyone read The Road by Cormac McArthy? I think that book is a metaphor that takes Isaiah into account.
Nate-- appreciate your researched thoughts about the current generation learning consumption rather than "saving for a rainy day" or precautionary principles. I'm going to quote you in a speech I'm giving to the Farmers Union next week. It is obvious that you cannot "tell" people that times could change dramatically. I suspect that some of these old farmers in the Union will know exactly what you mean-- some having lived through the depression.
Latest Neches data - -33,400 cubic feet a second, or 14,989,920 gallons a minute - flowing upriver.
Somewhere, this mass of water will collide with the normal downriver flow - and the area where it does will suffer from severe flooding, likely miles from the coast.
Looking at the basic map, it looks like I-10 and a railroad could be in at least potential danger of being cut, depending on how they cross the river, and how well the bridges/overpasses were built, and to what extent the road/rails are higher than the floodwaters.
Lucky it isn't a bowl, though. Wonder if that official's name is Brown?
A report from someone who stayed on Galveston Island:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080913/ap_on_re_us/ike
Our civilization's future in a nutshell.
Lucky that he had this chance, he could not have this chance! Maybe another people don't get a second chance.
One of the anchors on The Weather Channel asked a person that is currently in Galveston why they decided to stay.
They replied that they wanted to surf the waves the next day!
You can't make this stuff up!!!
peakoil.com: Are humans smarter than yeast (nod to Bob Shaw).
Would make a good poll here.
I assume the surfers were young men. Men under about 25 may be smarter than yeast, but they definitely don't have more common sense than yeast
A CenterrPoint spokesman said that they are looking at essentially a 100% blackout for the entire Houston metro area, with the exception of the areas like Medical Center and City Hall that have underground connections.
A decent link from wunderground for local information in that region -
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080912_mh_Ike_damage_reports_...
The Houston Chronicle. web site is up this morning. Might be another good site for local information.
E. Swanson
Heart of U.S. Oil and Gas Industries Shut Down as Storm Approached
After all the natural gas shutdowns in the GOM; stocks rose last week and are well above the 5-year average. Worldwide LNG capacity is scheduled to rise. New drilling rigs are being built.
Above in the main report for this page there is a map of "the critical pipeline structure expanding outward nationwide from the Houston/Port Arthur area:"
But it has no map key to tell you what the different lines represent. Does anybody know what the different colored pipelines on the map represent? Which color is NG, which is petroleum or gasoline or whatever?
Also there are some crossing the Canada border. Are those all now carrying fuels to the US, or do some carry fuels to Canada?
We sheltered in place in west Pearland near the Brazoria/Fort Bend/Harris County line. We lost power last night at 8, still have water and gas. Damage here appears to be minimal. I have heard grom some stubborn relatives in Angleton, 30 miles south in Brazoria County. They report a bit more damage than here, but mostly just fences down and shingles blown away. Still some hard gusts, but the worst is past us. I'll be interested to see what Galveston looks like.
Surreal. Here in Seguin we had no rain, hardly any wind. Same with our place in Gonzales County.
We have people. Lots of people that will need gas, gas that in some places has jumped to the $4.30 range and in others remains cheap. I am told the cost differences reflect when the station last purchased fuel, which would indicate that it's likely to be going up across the board soon. Oddly enough the highest priced fuel in San Antonio was at a station that normally has the cheapest prices and consequently ran out and had to be resupplied sooner.
The eye of the storm was large and it appears that the sea to land directed wind and surge will be found to have occurred East of the Galveston Bay in spite of the fact that the eye passed directly overhead.
I saw someone on the East Coast complaining about the price of gas going up before the storm hit. Guess he isn't aware that the refineries closed ahead of the storm and someone has to put fuel into that pipe his station gets it out of on the other end.
In retrospect, Chuck Watson's analysis appears to have been correct. Newscasters continued (and continue) to insist that we had 110 mph sustained winds and perhaps we did at some places, but every minute by minute wind speed figure I saw quoted was significantly lower in number and in line with his estimates.
Consequently, I suspect most damage will be water related.
I also expect the number of lives lost will be minimal compared to the massive losses of property. It could be that the damage to infrastructure needed to maintain oil facilities will prove more problematic than actual damage to the facilities themselves.
In an economy already staggering, the financial weight of this storm will be substantial.
Every major hurricane has this pattern.-Andrew comes to mind.
The first people to report in are those who can, or
like WT's report, those who straggle in to FEMA HQ.
Note that reporters are to the West of Ike.
Everything I've heard is that the surge from Galveston East to LA
was as bad as predicted.
One report of people on roofs in Orange.
Once the levees are topped they then keep the water in.
"As bad as Rita", FEMA in Hardin Co.
It took almost 24 hrs before NO realized they hadn't dodged the bullet that was Katrina.
I'm waiting.
Open question...
Certainly much pain and suffering and damage inflicted by Dolly, Gustav, and now Ike - and the season isn't over yet.
We should be grateful that the GOM this year - thus far - has not been able to build and sustain Cat 3+ storms notwithstanding the size of Ike.
Is it the weather patterns, lack of SST, just plain dumb luck?
Thanks,
Pete
NHC was reporting the highest winds in the NE sector of the storm well away from the eye. These winds would have made landfall east of Galveston. This would also be the area with the highest storm surge. Basically between Galveston and Port Arthur. Not sure what is on that area of coastline. There are no automated stations or buoys in that area. Chuck Watson's plot from buoy 42035 is very interesting but that buoy went adrift and thus would have gone south before entering the eye. It would almost certainly not have experienced the NE part of the storm.
Had Ike made landfall 20 miles to the west, I think we would be looking at very different news stories from Galveston. I hope the people who stayed in Galveston realize just how close they came to a repeat of 1900.
I'm no expert, but I have heard that wind speeds measured at the ground are lower than wind speeds measured higher up.
The Hurricane Hunter planes measure wind speed up in the atmosphere. Those wind speeds are sure to be higher than at ground level (or sea level).
There is controversy as to the exact scaling factors on direct observations, but a Hurricane Hunter plane lifts off with a large bank of disposable parachuted sensors that give readings over the full elevation range, as well as its own sensors. They call them dropsondes. There is even a system of balloons being introduced in the eastern Atlantic to do the same duty without a plane - remotely deploy a dropsonde twice a day to test for low-altitude winds in hurricane-forming zones.
Although unfortunately now that limited tv news helicopters are back in the air and the tv crews have reached more badly hit areas (they still seem to have flight restrictions over areas apparently still completely under water which have rescues currently taking place) there are definitely increasing reports of casualties. The west end of Galveston island and the extreme east end were definitely not the place to be.
The Mayor of Galveston said that "47% of the tax base" was under water according to ABC13.
And just to the east.
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102847&start=13080
KHOU just now reporting that at least 2 oil platforms are adrift "100 miles off the Louisiana coast". No further details.
Local tv news atreaming at http://flhurricane.com/ikecoverage.html
Officials say 2 drilling rigs adrift off La. coast
The Rigzone Ike site has an nice update on this kind of news.
http://www.rigzone.com/news/hurricanes/ike.asp
Perhaps they're not adrift but rather being hijacked to the Southeast US.
Phase one of "drill here drill now".
"The Mayor of Galveston said that "47% of the tax base" was under water according to ABC13."
Words mean a lot. Its not the city he or she is concerned about, its the tax base! Thank you big government.
Her words may sound harsh, but when you watch her live you realize the concern she has for her town and it's people. Seems she was just trying to put into a few words the extent of the damage.
I gotta say, I got a laugh out of the "big government" line. This is Galveston Island, not exactly a huge metropolis.
Sounds like she was trying to get folks to realise how difficult it will be financing help for them - the kitty is empty.
So, you'll be a Palin voter then?
It sounds from what Chuck Watson said like the refineries behind Galveston did OK. As for Galveston Island itself, and other places, here are some additional reasons to wait before we discount Ike:
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog (http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/) said late last night that the storm was bigger and had more total energy than either Katrina or Rita.
It was so large and wide, with such an unusual eye that whatever harm Galveston Bay avoids will just hurt Port Arthur instead (where they were reporting 96 mph winds).
I read that the storm surge was only about 15 feet in the 1900 Galveston hurricane, the deadliest disaster in US history (because they had no surge walls then). I also read that the Galveston wall (which is only on the gulf side) is only 15 feet high.
Jeff Master's blog also shows that high tide at Galveston was at 2 AM.
Ike made landfall at Galveston just a few minutes after 2 AM.
I am finding lots of local news on the web from as far east as New Orleans of significant storm surge flooding.
Just saw a report about low elevation storm surge flooding as far south as Corpus Christi.
It sounds from what Chuck Watson said like the refineries behind Galveston did OK.
They won't know for sure until they try to start them back up. If they didn't get flooded, then things look a lot better, but they are still going to need basic utilities. Refineries can generally run on backup power when necessary, but they aren't going to start up on backup power.
I just spoke to my wife in the Dallas area (I am in Europe) and she said rationing is going on there. She went to fill up yesterday and said a number of stations were already out of gas. Based on the current inventory situation (lowest level in 8 years, and one of the lowest levels on record), there is a significant risk that large areas could run out of gasoline very quickly. (This has probably been discussed here already, but I haven't had a chance to keep up with happenings this week).
Robert -In a nutshell, Chuck's companies forecasts were for weaker than Cat 3 winds at landfall and said we could have a disaster (e.g. millions of barrels of refining offline for months) if the storm hit 10-20 miles west of Galveston and lesser (refining) damage the further east the eye went (due to the strongest surge on the north side).
So his analysis doesn't say that refineries are 'fine', just that we dodged a silver bullet that might have killed a werewolf...(i.e. 4-5mbpd offline for indeterminate time)..
So it's 'OK', compared to what it could have been.
<< I also read that the Galveston wall (which is only on the gulf side) is only 15 feet high. >>
The Galveston sea wall was built 17 feet tall back in 1904. But over the years, the shoreline has risen, and so now the sea wall is only about 10 feet tall (give or take a few feet).
Here's an interesting link to NHC modeling of the surge levels generated by Ike.
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/Latest/
The animated gif files are large, but worth a look. The one for the Galveston area is named i49_gl2.gif. Chuck Watson is right, in that the surge model is much less severe this morning compared to what the NHC modeled just before landfall.