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Two short items to note
Posted by Heading Out on October 3, 2005 - 1:40am
Here are just a couple of bits of information that you may have missed since at least one of these was in the post on oil rigs. One of the discussions we had on CERA and ODAC predictions of supply was based on the time that it took for a field to come on line. Well just this weekend Sakhalin Island finally started to produce oil.
If you go back to Chris Skrebowski's initial listing of projects that would contribute to production by 2010, Sakhalin Island (which is just north of Japan) was scheduled to come on line in 3 steps - Phase 1 of which was supposed to happen in 2004.
The other thing to note is that we are not the only ones to suffer from the Hurricane. Consider that Mexico provided a lot of the oil that went to the refineries that are still closed. As a result it's economy is now being hurt by the delays in getting them restarted.
“The aim of every political constitution is, or ought to be, first to obtain for rulers men who possess most wisdom to discern, and most virtue to pursue, the common good of the society; and in the next place, to take the most effectual precautions for keeping them virtuous whilst they continue to hold their public trust.”
—James Madison, FEDERALIST #57 (1787)
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The National Hurricane Center shows Stan as a hurricane by Tuesday evening:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/025020.shtml?3day
How worried should we be about Cantarell?
(my first try, there must be way better terms, but not being native speaker i find it hard to come up with really good terms)
Oilfield Depletion : % of remaining oil in a field that is pumped out per year
Example : The oilfield Ghawar depletes at 5 mbpd, this is currently X% of the remaining reservers
Production Reduction : % of production that erodes from the peak production per year
Example : Cantarell has peaked in 2004 at 2.2 mbpd and currently has a production reduction of 14%, this means that it will produce 14% less this year than it did last year.
I think that there is a correlation between the two, but not a logical tie.
Ghawar with its unusual porous rock could have a Production Reduction of allmost 0, but a HUGE Oilfield depletion.
A field with very bad source rock could have a very high production reduction, but a very low oilfield reduction rate.
de·ple·tion
The definition of "depletion" refers to the verb.n.
The act or process of depleting.
The state of being depleted; exhaustion.
The use or consumption of a resource, especially a natural resource, faster than it is replenished.
de·plete
The act of pulling oil out of the ground fits this definition, but not a decline in rate of doing so. Therefore, I have always found it odd to hear that a country will be "going into depletion", since depletion happens from day one!tr.v. de·plet·ed, de·plet·ing, de·pletes
To decrease the fullness of; use up or empty out.
I also think that it is not how much oil is still left in the ground, it is the declining rate of new production that is the warning sign. Even if all the existing wells don't have a drop in production (not true) we couldn't increase production unless more wells are constantly coming online. Huge decline in new wells = big decline in future growth of oil supply, assuming all existing production stays the same.
Also, if people would like to list their five favorite energy sites, I'd like to see that kind of list.
Oil and NG shut-in stats, in bar-graph format. The numbers all come from the various reports on this page at the US Dept. of Energy.
http://www.grinzo.com/energy/graphics/shutin_10x3.jpg (big graphic!)
Today's shut-in oil production is 1,391,926 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 92.80% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.
Today's shut-in gas production is 7.495 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 74.95% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-10/3/05 is 45,119,329 bbls, which is equivalent to 8.241 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-10/3/05 is 219.567 BCF, which is equivalent to 6.016 % of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).