A White Christmas
Posted by Heading Out on December 24, 2005 - 12:36pm
We used to call the bend in the demand curve for a new product, when it went from having very slow sales to suddenly catching on, the knee of the curve, but in the new terminology it is "The Tipping Point." The book is very well written and worth taking the time to read. (And since it has been out since 2000 many of you may already have done so).
It is also a little topical because there will come a time when Peak Oil passes through such a point. It is obviously, increasing numbers of articles, and rising prices non-withstanding, not there yet. The potential increases in production from projects coming on stream next year may delay it a little longer, it may very well depend on the weather this winter.
And in that regard, snow having fallen here last night, so that we are going to have a White Christmas, may I wish you all the Compliments of this Season, and hope that you all are able to enjoy a Festive Holiday, with many opportunities for rest and relaxation.
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I suspect that most of the people who frequent this site are mavens, but relatively few are connectors. Who are the connectors in the peak oil movement?
I suspect that many of the present connectors in this movement are people who have wandered in from other movements, such as environmentalism. What can we do to cultivate our own unique connectors?
There ain't much money to be made spreading the idea of peak oil. Hence it's a mavens only type of crowd.
In this day and age of information overload, most people are unable to cope with all the stuff that is coming at them. Some MSM claim they are giving you "fair and balanced" news. They say, "we report, you decide". They pretend that everything is a democratic decision. They say, "our latest polls show that 37% of Americans disapprove of X, but approve of Y and Z; what do YOU oh mighty one feel? Call this number and reveal the truth onto us".
Well, if it were true, this incredible idea that my wishes and the wishes of the moral majority become reality, heck yeah, we choose the "fair and balanced" belief that Peak Oil is a doom & gloom ruse on par with aliens invading our planet, and we choose the optimistic, glass-is-always-half-full position that our "economy" will remain robust and "grow" forever. That's what we choose.
Have a merry last Christmas.
We may not see another one next year.
I may be missing something here but I don't see all the fabulous opportunities for a quick buck here. Solar, wind and geothermal have all been around for years. This situation is NOT comparable to the dot com mania. That one had connectors coming out of the woodwork.
In my opinion, connectors are not selfless creatures intent on the public good but, rather, dealmakers who "connect" and profit thereby. Those deals can be for money or political power but the essential thing is that there has to be an opportunity for arbitrage - there has to be something in it for the connector.
I don't see much arbitrage opportunity in spreading the gospel of peak oil.
http://www.itconversations.com/index.html
(search for glaswell, he said, acting as a maven)
I'm glad the trains are rolling in NYC so I can get my gifts to Staten Island today. I'll try to keep TOD:NYC updated if I hear of a labor settlement.
For my long distance relatives, I used Just Give and let them select their own charity....and I get a nice tax deduction!
I'm not saying it is - don't necessarily think it is - but I don't think it's obvious. The delays in new projects are significant, and Stuart's analysis of FIP decline suggested that if the decline is close to 5% or more, the new projects would not equal the ongoing decline. We still don't know how rapidly Cantarell or Burgan will decline, to say nothing of Ghawar, which is at best on a plateau (I say this not only because of Simmons' analysis but because Saudi stopped announcing increased production from Ghawar 2-3 years ago, tacitly acknowledging at best flat production). EIA through September still has April/May as high points, not solely due to the hurricanes. I will wait till numbers are published exceeding those of last spring before I will feel sure.
And their data gathering on contracts and production coming on stream indicates that extraction will increase a minimum of 1.25-mbd annually from 2006-2009 culminating with a global production rate of 91-mbd in 2010. Growth areas are the ME, Brazil, Canada, Angola & the Caspian region. All this talk of Peaking in 2005 is plainly silly stuff.
Of our 11 scenario modelers, only Campbell shows a near peak (85-mbd in 2010), yet global production already exceeds 84-mbd in 2005. He will shortly be revising upwards once again. If we are near peak, who are the modelers that are forecasting this? Where is their data? And why aren't the other modelers that are Peak-friendly revising downwards?
Crying wolf just discredits the discussion. Hurricane damage to infrastructure and distribution caused a short term loss of almost 1-mbd. We have already exceeded the pre-hurricane extraction rates. To presume that the summer slump was indicative of peaking is pure folly and i would expect better from TOD posters that have followed trends of the last three years.
The road from 1950 has been a bumpy one. But 2005 was not a pothole. And there are none in the foreseeable future. If refining capacity is not increased, there is questionable purpose in increasing production. That would hold us to a plateau ... not negative growth. But even as we speak, Alberta is contemplating a major refinery.
I read Rembrandt's report, and have great respect for his study. He also uses very conservative decline estimates, starting at 3%, while other estimates range from 5 - 8%. This difference alone is enough to dramatically move the peak, and no one can say for sure what the number is. That is why I take all predictions with a grain of salt. I'll think I'll drop this line of argument now, though. I'll just keep watching the numbers.
My first reaction to your comment was "Oh really... ?" Freddy. But you make a fair justification for it so I feel I should do likewise.
It mostly depends on four things:
- will decline rates be as predicted
- will planned projects come onstream as planned
- will significant demand destruction occur (major economic slowdown)
- will geopolitics disrupt supply
Any of these could radically change the date of peak oil. It IS perfectly feasible that peak oil has happened in 2005 - if half Saudi production was taken out tomorrow for 10 years it would be almost certain. Odds are that PO will happen in the next 10 years regardless, and if decline rates are higher than predicted 2010 may be optimistic.One should not rely on always seeing potholes before hitting them ;)
http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=97&contentId=7006978
I'm wondering if it's a loss making public relations exercise and not a working prototype meant to be replicated elsewhere. Toyota run a TV ad where a kid dreams of a fuel cell car. Big Biz is telling us everything is gonna-be-OK. Since I'm not the Grinch just for today I'll believe it.
For instance, how much of Halliburton's (or Schlumberger's) annual budget goes into activity that ends up resulting in oil being pulled out of the ground, versus gas. Can we compare this somehow to years previous? Are there any visible trends?
It is long-term trends we are interested in. If money has been invested to pull more gas out of the ground, it will presumeably come eventually, even if we have to deal with short to intermediate-term shortages. If there isn't in fact any increased activity in regards to gas, then there will definitely be shortages and increased prices.
Predicting any outcomes are dependent on knowing these actual trends in activity.
I, of course, am loooking into these matters, but was wondering if anybody could give me a jumpstart.