"12:44 P.M. - (AP) The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port did NOT suffer major damage as a result of Hurricane Katrina. And a port official says the flow of oil could resume within "a matter of hours" once its power supply is restored."

http://www.dotd.louisiana.gov/programs_grants/loop/loop.shtml

Most energy companies still have not been able to visit their facilities and are relying on aerial surveillance for preliminary examinations.

Such is the case for Chevron Corp., which shut down its 325,000 barrel a day Pascagoula, Miss., refinery before Katrina's arrival.

"We are hoping to get in there today, but that's the issue - getting there," said company spokesman Michael Barrett. "It could still be a while before that happens."

Marathon Ashland Petroleum LLC was also playing a waiting game to reach its 245,000 barrel a day refinery in Garyville, La.

"We are trying to re-board and assess what, if any, damage has occurred and what work needs to be done before we can restart," spokesman Paul Weeditz said.

Others were able to identify some trouble by late Monday. Valero Energy Corp. said its St. Charles refinery in Norco, La., which has capacity of 260,000 barrels a day, might not be restarted for another two weeks.

An executive with Venezuela's largest oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela, told Bloomberg News that a refinery it jointly operates with Exxon Mobil near New Orleans was not damaged and would restart production as soon as the government lifted a storm warning. That plant is based in Chalmette, La., just outside New Orleans and was processing about 187,200 barrels of oil a day before it was shut down.

For example, here's a list of Entergy's generating facilities. As you can see, most of it is powered by natural gas and/or oil. There might to be a bit of a chicken-and-egg problem, where Entergy needs gas to restore power, and the production companies need electricity to operate their infrastructure. I imagine it will be ok - Entergy will run at far less than the full load to begin with, and as they restore customers, they'll get more gas/oil supply to operate their plants.

Still, it's going to be a learning experience.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050830/fed_minutes.html?.v=4

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0830.htm

Today's shut-in oil production is 1,427,969 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 95.20% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today's shut-in gas production is 8.798 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 87.99% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-8/30/05 is 4,635,751 bbls, which is equivalent to 0.847% of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production for the period 8/26/05-8/30/05 is 25.441 BCF, which is equivalent to 0.697% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

http://www.spr.doe.gov/

Wikipedia says petrol can be released from SPR 13 days after a Presidential order, up to 4.something million bpd (fastest they can pump) and Wiki says that their information may be out of date slightly.

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html

snip:

As of August 19 (the most recent data available), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were well above the average range for this time of year. However, gasoline inventories were at the lower end of the average range, and with demand growing at a 1.6 percent rate over the most recent 4-week period, in terms of the amount of days gasoline inventories would supply, they are very low. Distillate inventories remain above the average range for this time of year. Inventory data as of August 26 will be available at 10:30 am ET on Wednesday, August 31.

http://tinyurl.com/dwzgb

The refill cost of the SPR will never again be as low as the last time we topped it off.

Oil companies run their power systems on their own produced natural gas - so they can pump as soon as their systems are functional.

Well?

Citgo Petroleum Corp. has requested a crude oil loan of 250,000 to 500,000 barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in order to maintain normal operations at its Lake Charles refinery in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Citgo is the first U.S.-based refiner to make a request, having done so the evening of the Aug. 29 hurricane. A great deal of Gulf Coast refining and Gulf of Mexico producing assets remained offline the morning of Aug. 30, raising the probability of energy shortages in the United States this winter.

Energy firms and government officials are carrying out damage assessments in the Gulf of Mexico region in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina's rampage through the region. First-cut assessments are shy on numbers, but so far at least two major drilling platforms are adrift in the Gulf of Mexico, and Royal Dutch/Shell reports that its mammoth Mars platform -- which typically produces 147,000 barrels of oil and 157 million cubic feet of natural gas per day -- has been moderately damaged. More detailed damage assessments will trickle in throughout today, but most are not expected to be completed until late Aug. 31.

That means all we know for sure is that much of the region's energy infrastructure remains in shutdown mode. In preparation for Katrina's arrival, 1.79 million barrels per day (bpd) of the country's refining capacity, 1.375 million bpd of oil production and 8.3 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas production were shut down as a precautionary measure. Such amounts represent 11 percent of total U.S. refining capacity as well as 92 percent of typical U.S. Gulf of Mexico oil production and 83 percent of the region's natural gas production. The producing assets remain offline not simply because of concerns of their continued viability, but because a complete assessment of the maze of collecting and transport pipelines that link offshore assets to the coast must be undertaken before production can be safely restarted.

There is, however, a bit of good news. Despite rampant talk of gasoline shortages, there is not even a minimal danger. Nearly all U.S. refineries already have switched over to heating oil and winter fuel production. The Sept. 3-5 Labor Day weekend marks the end of the U.S. summer driving season, so gasoline demand is about to drop off. There could be some regional tightness in markets and prices will certainly rise on shortage fears -- no matter how misplaced -- but there should not be more than mild supply disruptions.

The real problems will come later. As we noted, most American refineries already are gearing up for winter production runs. The issue is almost exclusively one of refined products, as U.S. commercial crude oil reserves are sitting at six-year highs and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is sitting pretty at 700 million barrels -- it became full for the first time ever earlier in August. If Gulf refining capacity remains offline for any more than a few days, the United States could quite easily face heating oil shortages -- particularly in the Northeast -- in the coming winter. Overall tightness in all refined products is a less acute, but equally legitimate, concern.

Of course, we should not ignore the question of production assets either. Although the absence will not contribute to product shortages, significant damage certainly would affect the broader price situation. Katrina followed the same approximate path through the Gulf of Mexico's producing areas as Hurricane Ivan did in 2004. Ivan wrecked so much havoc that it took 10 months to repair all the damage, and contributed to a sustained 20 percent hike in energy prices. All told, the Bush administration approved 5.4 million barrels of crude oil loans from the SPR to keep the American refinery complex running. With the U.S. energy transport and production infrastructure damaged in all likelihood, Citgo will not be the last U.S. refiner to ask for help.

As floodwaters from Lake Pontchartrain poured into New Orleans Aug. 30 -- the result of two major breaches in the city's levee system a day after Hurricane Katrina narrowly missed a direct hit on the city -- serious concerns that Stratfor raised as Katrina barreled though the Gulf of Mexico have returned.

Among the most pressing concerns is the status of the Mississippi River. Although Katrina veered slightly just before making landfall, the storm did strike the river's mouth head on. With the water level low due to a drought in the Midwest, the lower reaches of the delta could no longer be navigable.

In effect, the rising waters will prevent New Orleans from serving as a base of operations for rescue/recovery/assessment operations, meaning focus must now be shifted to the situation south of the city -- areas that will be cut off from substantial assistance for a few days as the U.S. government stretches its resources to get to the tens of thousands of people still stranded in New Orleans.

Over the next few hours, Stratfor will assess the situation in southern Louisiana with an eye on addressing key questions -- the answers to which will determine the status of the entire import-export infrastructure of the middle section of the United States, as well as the status of the energy infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of now, the key questions are:

1. As the U.S. grain harvest gets under way, where are the grain storage facilities in this area -- and what has become of them?

2. Has silt build-up on the Mississippi River affected its navigability -- and thus affected shipments? The U.S. Coast Guard reports that most efforts up to now are focusing on search and rescue, although it is attempting to move several ships that have run aground. Furthermore, some survey work has begun at mile marker 507 and below, where the Coast Guard has located several smaller sunken ships. The initial survey is expected to be completed within 24 hours.

3. What is the status of Grande Isle, the city on the Gulf that services the oil industry, and of Port Fourchon, the onshore transfer point for the oil off-loading facility known as the LOOP?

4. What is the status of the Port of South Louisiana and the Port of New Orleans?

Now the city is really in trouble. Having seen and worked against flooding I doubt those breaches in the levees can be closed by dropping sandbags from the air.

The potential area of flooding through the reported breaches is some 75 square kilometers. The average water level would be over 1 meter.

That are up to 75,000,000 cubic meter of water that will not evaporate or vanish in the ground. As New Orleans lies below the natural water level, they will have to be pumped out.

The biggest transportable salvage pump I could find on the net does some 750 cubic meter per hour and there are not many of those around.

It will be a long time before New Orleans is dry again.

The question of course is who will have to take the blame. Here is a hint:

It appears that the money has been moved in the president’s budget to handle homeland security and the war in Iraq, and I suppose that’s the price we pay. Nobody locally is happy that the levees can’t be finished, and we are doing everything we can to make the case that this is a security issue for us.

-- Walter Maestri, emergency management chief for Jefferson Parish, Louisiana; New Orleans Times-Picayune, June 8, 2004.

Posted by Bernhard on August 30, 2005 at 03:55

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2005/08/new_orleans.html