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A national call to arms?
Posted by Yankee on August 31, 2005 - 3:49pm
President Bush is considering an address to the nation asking citizens to conserve energy, a top White House source says. ... "Still undecided is whether or not to call for a nationwide effort to reduce energy consumption during this emergency," a top Bush source explains. "It is seriously being considered."Could it really be? Who knows...(in the same report, Drudge also says "A second White House source says there are no plans for the president to address the country on gas.")
There is a sense in which rationing has already begun. According to this LA Times story: "many of the major oil companies, including Shell Oil Co. and Valero Energy Corp., have begun rationing how much gasoline they provide wholesalers and dealers while their Gulf Coast operations recover."
Rationing the supply that wholesalers are given can cause shortages, but that's different than rations put in place by governments to affect individual consumers (not that Bush is actually implementing rationing at the moment). The other day, CNN elicited viewer emails on their opinion as to whether the government should ration gas in the face of the 1 to 1.5 mbd shortfall that Katrina has caused. Opinions ranged from a hearty "yes!" to "The oil companies are already gouging us, not this too!"
Update [2005-8-31 11:32:20 by Prof. Goose]:There will be a release from the SPR.
In worse news, the mayor of NOLA has acknowledged the potential for thousands of lives lost.
Some people are in denial about the geography of many Americans' lives:
you won't need to ration gas most people will drive only as necessary, like me this week I need to go 30 miles to get a muffler repair but after that I'll keep my driving for the week under 120 miles so that way the $20 I allow myself a week will work.
Other people have pinned the American psyche a little better:
I think they'll have to do something...however rationing gas won't solve the problem. People in America would go nuts if they were told they coldn't buy something that they wanted/needed.
One guy thinks there's an easier, more popular solution (how'd you like this one, mw?):
The US would invade Canada before rationing gas. The President would probably choose to invade Canada instead of rationing gas because it would be less unpopular.
Oil companies and huge profits is a big gripe:
There is to much fuel available to ration it. The oil companies are making huge profits. Our president is heavily invested in the oil business. Bush does not want to see rationing because it would effect the millions he is making off of the current high price of fuel. When rationing happened in the 70's we were told that by 2005 we would be out of fuel. We aren't out of fuel. OPEC is just controlling the amount available to the market. When will we run out this time if we ration. My father said back in the 70's why don't we use up all of the fuel and move into the next technology. We would be further ahead if we had.
Note that all of these were posted after Katrina hit, and yet almost no one mentions how the disaster will affect the supply of gasoline.
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Everybody talks about the future as if it is far away, but life runs quickly through our fingers...
If he mentioned Peak Oil, I'd fall off my chair
There is a LOT of "low hanging fruit" in US oil consumption that could yield some pretty impressive savings with no need for a single person to modify their current vehicle or buy a different one.
(There was an article on Green Car Congress recently about a guy who drove across Australia and improved his MPG by 30% with only driving technique. He got, I believe, 68MPG from a diesel sedan--no hybrid, no car mods, no special fuel. With less attention to detail than he showed, I'm sure we could all get 10%.)
(Note to self: Posting with a killer sinus headache is not a good idea.)
The 5 stages of grief. In order, denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.
So it seems that most people are in denial (not only that most drivers could do with only 120 miles per week, but that 120 miles is a small amount), to anger at the gas companies for gouging (which seems to have a certain amount of denile in it was well). It doesn't seem positive that the process is still just beginning.
As for invading Canada, I'm not sure just how unpopular that would be, and I'm curious of the long term affects. Would this make countries want to do less business with the US (for fear of becoming "crucial" to their infrastructure), or just make people jump up to become appeasers. Regardless, I suspect that holding Canada (or just Alberta) would be harder than Iraq. More people are well versed in making home made explosives.
Lastly, Canada seems content to just roll over already to the US, I'm not sure how much invading us would gain them. Already the government refuses to bring oil to the bargaining table to sort out the NAFTA issue over softwood lumber. The US took it and appealed, and fought to the bitter end of the appeal only to ignore the finding since they lost on all levels. And Canada is doing what about this? A few parliment members are talking about repurcussions, but I'm still waiting.
No, no invasion of Canada needed, the US is already our number one - really the only - export market for Canadian energy.
Plus we have all the uranium up here, watch out.
More seriously, Canada is the largest customer of some 30 or 31 of all the states - screw around with relations too much and the resulting trade war will hurt both sides.
Of course, a conspiracy theory could be built that fomenting some sort of revisit to the depression of the 1930's would be the best solution for an energy starved world.
Then again, that sort of decision would only be contemplated by people who recognize that there's a permanent crisis looming, and somehow I don't think we are there yet.
(in terms of recognition of the potential)
It won't happen.
What might happen is more money thrown at oil companies so they can do more, just like we saw with our much-touted energy bill.
I could say what I think of Drudge and his "developing" stories, but it's not really worth the effort.
I'm not optimistic.
Has anyone in the Bush Administration every given the public any bad news about anything? The cost of the Iraq war, federal deficit, housing bubble, trade deficit...
Bernanke was on TV already this morning saying that the financial impact of Katrina shouldn't be too bad, and will lead to increased jobs and "economic growth." See, e.g., http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=%2fafp%2fusweathereconomy
Fed's Santomero says Katrina won't derail economy
Noting the U.S. economy has proven to be capable of absorbing shocks, Philadelphia Fed President Anthony Santomero said "after a short period, the effects of Katrina are likely to slow but not stall the forward progress of the national economy."
In remarks to a business group at Temple University, Santomero said he expected inflation to remain well-behaved and inflation expectations to remain well-anchored. But he also said unit labor costs were beginning to increase, and there were indications there might be some tightness in the labor markets soon.
"To keep these incipient price pressures well-contained, the Fed will have to continue shifting monetary policy from its current somewhat accommodative stance to a more neutral one," he said.
He also said it was likely the Fed would be able to continue tightening at a measured pace.
http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reu ters.com:20050831:MTFH16977_2005-08-31_17-41-46_N31379096:1
This means that the oil tanker trucks will not visit the gas stations so often, which means that gas stations will run out of oil periodically. Not because their isn't enough oil, but because they are temporarily going to be short of trucks to move it.
wk, do you know a lot about that? or just an astute observation...?
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/01/opinion/01thu1.html
I converted my 82 Benz 300D to run on Waste Vegetable oil for about 4 cents a gallon.
take that to heart