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EIA and MMS 9/15
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 15, 2005 - 2:07pm
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html
http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0915.htm
http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0915.htm
Update [2005-9-15 14:7:57 by Prof. Goose]:Also go check out JDH's piece on this and the gasoline demand "freefall:" http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2005/09/gasoline_demand.html
Technorati Tags: peak oil, oil, Katrina, Hurricane Katrina, gas prices
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so even tho lots of nat-gas and oil shut-in in the gulf
and 3 or 4 refineries are down...
JDH/econbrowser guy says gasoline demand is falling.
OPEC is said to cut its worldwide demand estimate
for the 5th straight time, down to 83.6 mbd
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/afp/20050915/bs_afp/opecenergyoilproductionforecast_050 915163115
? ? ?
Lorax73
http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0916b.htm
Today's shut-in oil production is 840,921 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 56.06% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD. Approximately 35% of the oil shut-in is as a result of onshore infrastructure problems.
Today's shut-in gas production is 3.384 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 33.84% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.
The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/16/05 is 22,215,726 bbls, which is equivalent to 4.058 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).
The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/16/05 is 105.777 BCF, which is equivalent to 2.898% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).
The people in NOLA who got away in their cars can still drive around. Then again, many of them were 2-car families who only took 1 car. Has anyone seen any figures as to how many cars were flooded, and would be totalled? I would be interested in seeing what those destroyed vehicles are replaced with.
The Chinese are not making the right decision here not filling up the SPR right now. Crude oil has plunged from $70 down to as low as $63 - pre-Katrina levels. this is a bargain, especially when crude prices are set to rise again this upcoming cold winter. is $63/barrel expensive? certainly, but $70+ is even more expensive and it is a very unrealistic expectation, infact foolhardy, to wait for crude prices to drop down below $60 to fill up your SPR.
if you are an Nymex investor, buy crude light, heating oil, natural gas futures now before the winter kicks into high gear. Matt Simmons has said on a video posted here at the Oil Drum, that this winter will be the first we see a significant shortfall.
And we still drive like jackrabbits, too. All. winter. long.
500K barrels of heavy, filthy, sour. Refineries have already said: "we don't want no more sour!"
check this quote from http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5612507/
"Only Saudi Arabia has spare production capacity and refiners have said they do not want more of the kingdom's sour crude"
-- Apache Corp on Sep 15 said damage to production infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico will likely keep 60,000 Mcf/d of its gross operated natural gas production and 20,000 b/d of its oil output offline for up to a year. Apache has restored 81% of its gross operated Gulf gas production, or some 459,000 Mcf/d, and 65% of its oil output, or 45,600 b/d. Another 45,000 Mcf/d and 4,000 b/d is expected to return by mid-October.
-- Royal Dutch/Shell said its net Gulf of Mexico production has returned to about 160,000 boe/d in the aftermath of Katrina. The company's first-half production from the region was 450,000 boe/d. Shell said it expects that about 60% of the total production will be restored to pre-hurricane levels "within fourth quarter 2005."
-- Despite the fact some 56% of the oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remains idled more than two weeks after Katrina roared through the region, the six refiners awarded loans from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help ease crude supply shortages have taken delivery of just 2.405-mil bbl of the 12.6-mil bbl awarded, information from the companies and the Department of Energy showed on Sep 14.
Much more at...
http://www.platts.com/Oil/Resources/News%20Features/katrina/index.xml
Possibly those barrels expected to be returned are counted as inventory?
Also the natural gas storage this week seems unbeliveably high. Can someone point out why I may be wrong?
Has anyone noticed that the shut in numbers for Katrina are relative to 1.5 MBPD and 10 BCFPD, for oil and gas, respectively, whereas the numbers for Ivan last year were versus 1.7 MBPD and 12.3 BCFPD? Does this reflect permanent damage due to Ivan, or depletion, or a combination of both? The final numbers for Ivan posted on 2/14/05 show 7.4% shut in for oil and 1.2% shut in for gas, which wouldn't account for the difference.
Or in other words, production losses are only from those platforms, etc., expected to recover, and not total losses.
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?article_id=236816&Section=ONART&C=GenIn
Survey gauges oil-price effects on multinational firms
By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Sept. 14 -- High oil prices are taking a toll on US-based multinational companies, making senior executives less optimistic and more uncertain about the future, said analysts at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, New York.
"Many--particularly the 36% that see their companies as vulnerable to rising oil prices--are scaling back expectations for revenue growth, new jobs, and investments," they said in the report of a recent survey. Although 82% of the surveyed senior executives still believed that the US economy is growing, only 62% were optimistic in the second quarter about prospects over the next 12 months--"a sharp 15-point drop from the prior quarter," the report said. "One-third now counts itself uncertain, a 13-point increase."
The decline of optimism is most prevalent among 36% of executives citing rising oil prices as a potential barrier to corporate growth. Only 56% of this group remains optimistic; 42% is uncertain, according to the survey.
There was a story in the WSJ yesterday about the tar sands in Alberta. Since natural gas is required to heat the stuff out and get the oil, they are clearly sensitive to the price of natural gas. In the article they now say that they can break-even if oil remains below 40$/bbl, whereas before the breakeven point was 25$/bbl.
In a related though, I am wondering about this winter. In the event of natural gas shortages for heating, would they idle this project and divert the natural gas to home heating??
Part of it could be continuing research hoping to find the magic method to exptract oil cheaply, but why upgrade existing non-perfected facilities to be able to extract oil for barely break even prices? Unless it's a very small change which will make things magically become profitable it would seem that they'd have to undergo a large retrofit and take a large write off on the expended capital. Their actions seem to say that they're not confident that a revolutionary cheaper method to process the oil sands is going to occur.
The Mineral Management Service's latest Katrina status report showed a total of 102Bcf shut in since Katrina came ashore, and 80Bcf were shut in up until Sept. 9th. I just really don't understand how storage levels can be so strong, while production is so weak.