So it looks like Rita is going to pick up the 7-10 split, and shut down both Galveston and Port Arthur.

Given the move eastward, figured I should repeat the exercise for LA.  Here's some updates from the Louisiana page.

Louisiana Border area 1120k(TX) 590k(LA) (10%) [Revised]
[Add] Lake Charles (LA) Calcasieu 30k
[Add] Lake Charles (LA) Citgo 324k
[Add] Westlake (LA) ConocoPhillips 239k

The Shreveport (LA) area is 250km inland but due north of Port Arthur / Lake Charles, and has three refineries operated by Calumet [Cotton Valley, Princeton, Shreveport] but only totalling 50kbpd capacity.

 --J

[Heh, and now I click why I get credited as just 'J' - Doh!]

According to NHC, the eye is going to go over the eastern shore of the big bay (whatever it's actual name is) that's to the south east of Houston. Texas city is on the western edge of that bay, and I think that's where the majority of the refineries are located. If you google earth the area, you can pretty easily see that there's a huge concentration of industrial infrastructure all in one place to the south of Texas City. Industrial infrastructure looks pretty distinct, and I really don't see anything else like it in the area. The good news is that if your'e going to take a near direct hit from a hurricane that's travelling towards the NW, you'd rather have it pass to the east of you than the west.

Interestingly, I think a direct hit will cause nat gas and gasoline prices to spike and cause crude oil to sell off - storm looking more and more likely to hit the oil areas yet futures down 40c tonight and were down today.  If more refineries go down - we will have a 'surplus' of crude, at least for November contract, with nowhere to go...

Gas and nat gas another story - one eye was opened with katrina and the other is about to be popped open - America Eyes Wide Shut re Peak Oil may be no longer...