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The MMS numbers illustrate the problem [UPDATED 9/23]

Posted by Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 10:45am

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0923.htm (snippets under the fold)

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These evacuations are equivalent to 77.41% of 819 manned platforms and 67.16% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Today’s shut-in oil production is 1,486,877 BOPD. This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 99.125% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today’s shut-in gas production is 7.204 BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 72.04% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

The cumulative shut-in oil production for the period 8/26/05-9/23/05 is 30,280,661 bbls, which is equivalent to 5.531 % of the yearly production of oil in the GOM (approximately 547.5 million barrels).

The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/23/05 is 140.502 BCF, which is equivalent to 3.49% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF).

The MMS numbers illustrate the problem [UPDATED 9/23]

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5 comments

mw on September 23, 2005 - 11:01am Permalink | Comments top
Can't find a better place to post this thought, but it is potentially related to future shut-ins so.. ;-)

If I put an envelope or other straight line on my screen on this (java based) multi-image animation of Rita, it looks like its not turned north yet, as they expect... the closer it gets, the less a turn will matter.

Currently energy markets are weaker on expectations that Galveston will be spared (but other areas hit, go figure) -- this may not be the case. 11am briefing from NOAA may tell the tale here soon.

Get your envelopes out folks:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 11:09am Permalink | Parent | Comments top
I was trying to put together a graphic this morning that illustrated just that...but this is much easier.  Many more bad things will happen if this thing does weird crap, folks.
mw on September 23, 2005 - 12:15pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
NOAA and their supercomputers still seem to think it will turn (latest report); my envelope still disagrees ;-)
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 12:29pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
well the coriolis force is working on it to go due N, the momentum is NW...hence the expectation to turn.  but that doesn't seem to be where the bus is going...
mw on September 23, 2005 - 2:23pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top
FRIDAYS numbers:
These evacuations are equivalent to 77.41% of 819 manned platforms and 67.16% of 134 rigs currently operating in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).

Today's shut-in oil production is 1,486,877 BOPD.  This shut-in oil production is equivalent to 99.125% of the daily oil production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 1.5 million BOPD.

Today's shut-in gas production is 7.204 BCFPD.  This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 72.04% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD.

http://www.mms.gov/ooc/press/2005/press0923.htm

The MMS numbers illustrate the problem [UPDATED 9/23]

PDF version

5 comments