It shows shut-in jumping up againg because of Rita, before it had a chance of going down.

Most of the models then have the remnants of Rita heading southeast, south, or southwest back past already damaged areas.  The flooding from such a track would be extremely bad.      

We need to watch the media to make sure they don't declare everything is fine as soon as Rita moves inland.  This could be a 2-4 day rain event in TX/LA after landfall.

(friend) called a few minutes ago; he's in a Cajun bar on Lake Charles,
near where he thinks Rita will make landfall.  He's fine, expects to
continue that way, and asked me to let you all know that.

    He said, and I quote verbatim, "This is going to be the worst one yet."
Rita's like 36 hours away, but the rain was already coming in sheets, and
near-horizontally.  He's expecting serious flooding in that area, and major
problems with the refineries and chemical plants located there.

On a side note, does anyone here use the tool, google earth?  I just downloaded it yesterday and it's giving me a better look at areas that will be affected, you can zoom in to about 200ft of street level, see the streets and highways, even get info like schools,stadiums,shopping centers etc.  I also noticed some refineries in detail.  It's too bad they don't include any rigs out at sea.  

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_perf.html

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

there's so much bad shit that could come down from this if it stalls out over Beaumont or Houston, or comes back out to the gulf, reforms, and goes SW down the IC.  

all possibilities exist folks...that's what the models are saying.

http://static.flickr.com/27/45841347_94324b26d2_o.png

Even if the market think it's not going to be as bad as it first thought, it's still going to be quite bad.

Of course the price is going to go up after saturday, but it's hard to understand why it's hasn't gone up yesterday and today.

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=1152339

I guess it beats calling it a major force.  That would be boring.

well, you really have to go back all the way to monday, when crude oil made a 1 day climb of $4.00 from $63-$67.  Rita was at CAT4, and entering the GOM and heading towards Houston-Beaumont Area.  So on Monday, the market has already priced in the fear of potential damage to refineries and oil rigs by Rita.  For the price to move higher from here on out, Rita needs to strengthen and the fears of potential damage needs to be confirmed in reality.

Tuesday, Rita strengthens to CAT5 and crude oil and gas climb again.  but still no confirmation of damage because Rita hasn't hit anything yet, i.e. it's all speculation.

Wednesday, Rita downgrades to CAT4.  Crude falls.  traders now assume Rita won't be as bad as the price of oil indicates.  again this is all speculation which is what the NYMEX traders do.  if Rita re-strengthens, Crude will climb.  if Rita trajectory makes a solid left turn into Houston, Crude will climb.

Thursday, Rita wind-speeds slows down all day, turning more and more north - avoiding Houston.  Crude falls $0.30.  again traders think Rita will not do as much damage as previously thought.  The Monetary value of what traders think Rita will do is priced in at $67.00, if Rita is less severe, the price falls.

Friday, Rita eyewall falling apart.  Turning even more north, might even spare Freeport/Beaumont.  Crude Plummets $2.00.  Traders now officially don't think Rita will do very much damage at all.

Again, this is subject to change based on weather changes.  If Rita strengthens to CAT5 over the weekend and changes course and heads for Freeport/Beaumont/Houston, on Sunday, the NYMEX will open to a buying frenzy.  but all indications show otherwise, in fact a massive sell-off is expected.

perhaps way too quick of a downgrade from NHC is what they are saying...she's reforming.

Insurers including Allstate Corp. and St. Paul Travelers Cos. cover an estimated $740 billion of property in Hurricane Rita's path, twice as much as in the three states pummeled by Katrina last month, a storm modeler said.

Allstate at 2:47 ET was trading at $54.35, UP $2.40.  Seems the smart money is saying Rita is no big deal.

Also a Strengthening hurricane as it comes ashore is much more dangerous than a static or weakening one of the same INTENSITY.  The land mass will quickly kill a static or weakening storm so that the winds drop quickly as it move inland and the storm surge will be less than anticipated from wind speed.  Strengthening storms carry well inland and bring greater storm surge on land.

Very bad news if rita is strengthening because the sea level will rise with it beacause of falling pressure.  The pressure can be much lower than wind speed says because the storm hasn't increased to peak wind speed yet.  This very high storm surge under the eye area is what does massive coastline damage, not the wind.

Still a lot of time before Rita hits land.  We are not out of the woods yet.

1. The high cost of fuel and natural gas in the coming months as a result of Katrina and Rita.
   
2. The rise in short term interest rates by the Federal Reserve.  You can't get easy money from a refinancing loan anymore.  
   
3. The rise in the cost of food, also as a result of high energy prices.
   
4. And here's the killing blow,  http://www.billingsgazette.com/index.php?id=1&display=rednews/2005/09/18/build/business/60-credi

Buy hey, forget about everything I just said.  Just tune in to mainstream financial tv on Monday and hear the administration and expert economists tell us how we are entering a golden age of prosperity as a result of the rebuilding of the areas damaged by the storms and the coming of the new democratic Iraq.  Listen with wonder as to how the stock market will now rise to new heights because nothing can bring it down.  Sleep easily at night knowing that the mighty Steve Forbes has said that oil prices will collapse to $35 next year and failing that, the mighty Donald Trump and his team of negotiators can talk the Saudis into bring the price down (he said so in late night tv, no kidding!).  Just remember, everything is going to be alright, say that to yourself, as many times as you want while rocking back and forth in a natal position, sucking your thumb now and again, it's going to be alright.

from

http://www.marylandweather.com/news/weather/site/bal-bz.oil21sep21001557,0,5070471.story?coll=mw-hea dlines&track=rss

In Rita's crosshairs are:
* Port Arthur, a city of about 58,000 where the main industries include oil, shrimping and crawfishing; and
* Beaumont, the birthplace of the modern oil industry and a port city of about 114,000.

"That's where people are going to die," said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center. "All these areas are just going to get absolutely clobbered by the storm surge."

"THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING.  VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT.  RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA IS APPROACHING THE COAST ALONG A SLIGHTLY WOBBLY HEADING OF 325 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS... JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.  ASIDE FROM THE COMMONLY OBSERVED WOBBLES... THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  BEYOND THEN... THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OF A STALL OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS... AS RITA
WILL LIKELY BECOME TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS TO ITS EAST AND WEST.  THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS WELL INLAND AND FOR SEVERAL DAYS AFTER LANDFALL."

930-932 mb (where Rita is now) is a cat 4.  the winds are a little disorganized, but with the curvature of the shore, this will have cat 5 surge, and do cat 5 damage that way.  I fear there will be devastation...and a lot of it, but because it ain't Houston, it won't get covered...

RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING. VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT. RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

Looks to me like Beaumont, Port Artur, and Orange TX took a direct hit.  Lake Charles is only 35 mi or so to the ast and probably suffered very high winds as well.

I agree with previous posts on flooding.  A stall due north of Beaumont is going to wreck havoc on Shreveport, LA as well.  I have been trying to find a topo map showing elevation and water ways from Northeast TX back to the coast.  I'll keep looking.  Anyone have a good link they can post?