<Some very important maps and things to think about...The Oil DrumResource Page--UPDATED for Landfall>

Rita Ashore...Amazing Destruction...Will She Stall? Will She Come Back to the Gulf?

Posted by Prof. Goose on September 24, 2005 - 1:07am
Topic: Supply/Production

We cover all things petroleum and peak oil here at TOD.  There are important posts below this, including an important one by HO and Stuart's post on climate change and the intensity of hurricanes...and I encourage you to read both of these very important and timely pieces...right after HO's piece below, there's the CONSTANTLY UPDATED Rita resources page, which has all sorts of new maps, weather models, and especially the KAC/UCF damage predictions that were so correct last time (so many rigs on the E side of this storm, where the wind/surge will be incredible...and the refineries with a direct hit possible on Beaumont...).  Other pieces are interspersed between all that and some very extensive petroleum/hurricane coverage, which covers about the next ten or so posts.  Enjoy.  And to all of you folks new to TOD, welcome.  Pull up a chair and get ready to learn...

109 comments on Rita Ashore...Amazing Destruction...Will She Stall? Will She Come Back to the Gulf?

Comments can no longer be added to this story.

MikeTor on September 23, 2005 - 4:28am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Very nice graph back at calculated risk:
http://photos1.blogger.com/img/243/2888/640/comp_ivan_katrina2_sm.jpg

It shows shut-in jumping up againg because of Rita, before it had a chance of going down.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
NC on September 23, 2005 - 9:09am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Quick note after revisiting the link to the various models of Ritas path.  http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png Notice that all but a few have Rita making a loop in north Texas before heading someplace else.

Most of the models then have the remnants of Rita heading southeast, south, or southwest back past already damaged areas.  The flooding from such a track would be extremely bad.      

We need to watch the media to make sure they don't declare everything is fine as soon as Rita moves inland.  This could be a 2-4 day rain event in TX/LA after landfall.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 10:49am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Re: "We need to watch the media to make sure they don't declare everything is fine as soon as Rita moves inland..."

So true. Perhaps we should create a contest and award for the story headline that is most out of touch with reality. We could call it the "Pollyanna Prize" -- in contrast to the Pulitzer.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
qmed2005 on September 23, 2005 - 9:27am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Given just how much model guidance has changed, not inconceivable that the system will actually come back to Gulf and re-form at some point. Any medium term weather-guessers with a thought?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 10:47am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
that's a lot of what the discussion is over at easternuswx.com today.  they have NO clue.  they're talkin' curly-qs, stall-outs, all sorts of crap.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Rajiv on September 23, 2005 - 10:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
The models seems to indicate that Rita is stalling and circling around Crawford, TX -- any clue as to why?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Fire Temple on September 23, 2005 - 10:07pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Crawford?  May be Rita is looking for Bush!  
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 11:00am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
My general impression is that HHC has no clue either. Rita seems to be some kind of anamoly.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL PROBLEMATIC. SINCE RITA HAS COMPLETED THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE AND IS OVER THE WARM EDDY OF THE LOOP CURRENT...THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 12 HR..AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD MOVED NORTH OF THE EDDY... POSSIBLY START ANOTHER EYEWALL CYCLE...AND POSSIBLY EXPERIENCE INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IN 12 HR...FOLLWED BY SLIGHT WEAKENING. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT RITA DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...
I think that just about covers it.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Khebab on September 23, 2005 - 11:14am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Check the comments on thestormtrack.com, Rita seems to weaken because it's approaching land and dry air, the water is also less warm. The eye seems to be very instable.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 11:21am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thanks for the link. And they've just posted a story "Water Cascades Over New Orleans Levee". (See my comment below)

"Water poured over a patched levee Friday, cascading into one of the city's lowest-lying neighborhoods and heightening fears that Hurricane Rita would re-flood this devastated city...

It's already happening!
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Jack Greene on September 23, 2005 - 9:37am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
I have a friend who works for the State of Louisiana in disaster situations - a geologist. His comment, now 12+ hours old is as follows:

(friend) called a few minutes ago; he's in a Cajun bar on Lake Charles,
near where he thinks Rita will make landfall.  He's fine, expects to
continue that way, and asked me to let you all know that.

    He said, and I quote verbatim, "This is going to be the worst one yet."
Rita's like 36 hours away, but the rain was already coming in sheets, and
near-horizontally.  He's expecting serious flooding in that area, and major
problems with the refineries and chemical plants located there.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Glenn on September 23, 2005 - 10:10am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
An evacuation bus burst into flames, killing at least 20 people - NYTimes. Very sad.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 11:10am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
According to this excellent NY Times graphic, New Orleans would receive about 3 to 5 inches of rain from this storm. That seems sufficient to break the fragile levee repairs and re-flood the city....
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Leanan on September 23, 2005 - 11:27am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It's already happening.  CNN is reporting that water is washing in over the levees in the 9th ward.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 11:39am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, the levee has been overtopped but has not broken. Now, NPR just interviewed an Army Corp of Engineers guy who says that the city can handle 6 to 8 inches of rain, which is just a bit more than the current forecast. Do we believe this?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Leanan on September 23, 2005 - 11:53am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Water is "waist deep and rising fast."  

"Our worst fears came true," a National Guard official said. "The levee will breach if we keep on the path we are on right now."

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9438536/

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Khebab on September 23, 2005 - 3:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Live Data from a buoy in the lake pontchartrain is available here (takes about 30 sec. to load). The water level is 1 feet above normal.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
valor on September 23, 2005 - 11:22am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Hi everyone, this is my first time posting, and I have to say thanks to everyone involved in this site.  It's been a great resource, far ahead of the mainstream media.  I found the site when I was looking for info on Katrina days before she made landfall and have been glued here ever since.  
Now on to the questions, I have two windows up, one  showing the map from rigzone with the rigs in Rita's way and the other is the live pic of Rita's movement from the front page.  So at this time, Rita's winds are pounding the heart of the rigs and platforms in the gulf.  It also looks like there are strong bands pounding the LOOP and Port Fourchand.  If anyone can answer this question, I'd much apreciate it, How much force can those rigs take?  Right now, Rita is hitting them with 140mph winds, heavy rain, and moving slowly at about 10 miles per hour.  I guess the bigger question would be, How many of those rigs can survive under those conditions?

On a side note, does anyone here use the tool, google earth?  I just downloaded it yesterday and it's giving me a better look at areas that will be affected, you can zoom in to about 200ft of street level, see the streets and highways, even get info like schools,stadiums,shopping centers etc.  I also noticed some refineries in detail.  It's too bad they don't include any rigs out at sea.  

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Sigurd on September 23, 2005 - 11:30am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Concerning the amount of damage taken related to the wind speeds, take a look at the main rita topic on the main page, there are links to a simulation estimating these damages. Basicaly in the center path of rita, nothing survives.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 11:32am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_gomex_oil.html (here you go!)
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
valor on September 23, 2005 - 11:36am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
Thanks Prof. and sigurd.  All I can is, wow! and not in a good way I'm afraid.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 11:49am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
just to tell you how screwy the models are right now:

http://hurricane.methaz.org/hurapak/AAL182005_perf.html

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

there's so much bad shit that could come down from this if it stalls out over Beaumont or Houston, or comes back out to the gulf, reforms, and goes SW down the IC.  

all possibilities exist folks...that's what the models are saying.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 11:51am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
check out khebab's latest picture:

http://static.flickr.com/27/45841347_94324b26d2_o.png

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Khebab on September 23, 2005 - 12:13pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
I added the lastest GOES images:

picture here

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 11:52am Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
The governor of Louisiana has finally lost her grip -- who can blame her? From the NY Times.

As for those who refuse to leave, Gov. Kathleen Blanco advised: "Perhaps they should write their Social Security numbers on their arms with indelible ink."
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Glenn on September 23, 2005 - 11:58am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Geez - and people think us Peak Oil people are gloomy.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 12:02pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
how about some chips in their heads...yeesh.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Fire Temple on September 23, 2005 - 10:18pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
And they wonder why people are panicking?!
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
billyt on September 23, 2005 - 12:06pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
please keep us posted on Refinery AND Offshore Oil Rig Damages...  i'm tired of keeping track of Rita, she just can't make up her mind it seems.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
MikeCapone on September 23, 2005 - 12:12pm Permalink | Subthread | Comments top
A simple question: Why is oil and gas going down?!

Even if the market think it's not going to be as bad as it first thought, it's still going to be quite bad.

Of course the price is going to go up after saturday, but it's hard to understand why it's hasn't gone up yesterday and today.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Prof. Goose on September 23, 2005 - 12:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
my guess: oil is going down because of the expected refinery damage, less demand...

as for NG and gas, I have no clue.  should be through the roof...but I guess they're expecting demand destruction from this too...catch 22.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
MikeCapone on September 23, 2005 - 12:22pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Should demand destruction be much worse than with Katrina? I don't remember hearing much about it a month ago...
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Ed Ames on September 23, 2005 - 12:31pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
NYMEX declared "force mjaor" on NG futures. Not sure if or how this effects current prices. Anyone?
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
egl9sun on September 23, 2005 - 2:00pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
this means due to an "act of God", companies under contract for delievery are released from contract.  Delieveries will be missed.  In a market it is the worse situation that could happen.  
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Dave Cohen on September 23, 2005 - 12:47pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yes, anticipated demand drops would cause the prices to fall. Hell, if a big meteorite were to hit the Earth right now, demand would drop to almost zero and oil & natural gas would be really cheap then...

On a happier note, maybe Greenspan will raise short-term interest rates again next week due to fears of inflation in the post-Rita economic environment. After all, GDP may rise dramatically repairing all the damage...
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wadosy on September 23, 2005 - 1:21pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
why should we expect the plunge protection team ---put together to stabilize american stock markets when they reopened after 9/11--- to be limited to stock markets?

the PPT was supposedly disbanded after the panic from 9/11 subsided, but there have been numerous articles lately that it never did disband, and its continued manipulation of markets is posing a whole new batch of ethics questions for wall street ---as if wall street needed any more ethics problems.

here's a quote from the canadian outfit that did the investigation: 'the U.S. government has intervened to support the stock market so many times that "what apparently started as a stopgap measure may have morphed into a serious moral hazard situation, with market manipulation an endemic feature of the U.S. stock market.'"

oh, and i almost forgot that shining example of american capitalism, enron, and its manipulation of energy markets.

i hate to be such a gloomy bastard, but i dont trust any bigtime market to be much more than a scheme to manipulate and acquire money. the american "free market" is just one more fairy tale we have to outgrow before we can tear this system down and, hopefully, install a smaller, more responsive one in its place.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wadosy on September 23, 2005 - 1:27pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
and before anybody jumps me......   yes, dear, i know this kinda stuff has been going on since that first gang of assholes sat down under the wall on manhattan.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fatbear on September 23, 2005 - 1:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
It was a Buttonwood tree - the wall was torn down around 100 years before
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wadosy on September 23, 2005 - 1:48pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
thank you
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
fatbear on September 23, 2005 - 1:55pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Thus also the name of the Buttonwood column in/at the Economist
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Charles on September 23, 2005 - 1:59pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Do some refiners have to buy oil on the open market?  In other words, do refiners who need to buy light sweet crude do so in the NYMEX futures market?  If so this could certainly explain crude drops since those buyers would have other things to worry about right now it would seem.

Does anyone have information on who the NYMEX crude market buyers/sellers are broken out by percentages?

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Fire Temple on September 23, 2005 - 10:26pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Yeah, but gasoline prices also went down today -- even as reports of gas-stations running out circulated in the media.  Certainly counter-intuitive.  

The experts' explanation is probably "profit taking!"

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Southsider1 on September 23, 2005 - 11:19pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
Well of course it's profit taking. While the folks who read this blog have a long-term perspective, most professional traders do not. Folks with a short time horizon shouldn't be blamed for that; betting on daily price movements is how they make a living.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wadosy on September 24, 2005 - 12:26am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
maybe it's time to figure out and implement some system that thinks more about the long term survival of the system.

ah, but i forgot my history, didn't i? history is littered with dead empires that got so fat they couldn't help devouring themselves.

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
Southsider1 on September 24, 2005 - 12:56am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
You're right -- but don't look to traders to do this. It's not what they are about.
0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.
wadosy on September 24, 2005 - 1:43am Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Comments top
i used to think we could get back to reality without killing millions of people.

but i think about "tinker, tailor, soldier, spy" and the captured spy's rant about america, delivered before he's shipped off to russia ---something about how america would trash the world in her death throes as she attempted to salvage her empire.

the book was written in the mid-70s, i think, and i wonder how le carre could have seen it coming...

0
Comments can no longer be added to this story.