HO

Some processes that have been done on small scale:

1. Solvent refined coal
   
2. H-coal process
   
3. Various pyrolysis and hydro-pyrolysis

Interesting article. At least on a basic concept level, the THAI process looks like a major improvement over the conventional schemes, as it actually uses part of the bitumen as fuel rather than more valuable fossil fuels. Furthermore, the more in situ you can make the process, the better.

A major consideration that may not be sufficienly appreciated at this time is the composition and disposition of the combustion gases. Unless these are just allowed to migrate to the surface through the porous overburned, then they would probably have to be collected via some sort of a network of exhaust wells.

The disposition of these gases will not be a trivial matter.The article cites a combustion gas generation rate of 255,000 cubic meters per day for a system producing 660 bpd of bitumen liquid. That is a LOT of gas for a relatively small amount of production.

 Being that the combustion is underground and proceeds from a highly oxidizing state to an oxygen-starved state (i.e, near the face of the liquifying bitumen), it is a certainty that the combustion gases will contain a high fraction of unburned hydrocarbons, possible mixed with carbon monoxide and sulfur dioxide. For a full-scale system I very much doubt that it will be acceptable to release a huge volume of such highly contaminated gases to the atmosphere without some sort of emission controls. A network of exhaust wells connected to a vapor incinerator would handle the unburned hydrocarbons and the CO, but additional controls would be needed to remove the SO2. I'm not saying that air pollution control is going to be a project killer, but it is something that will add to the complexity and cost of a full-scale system.  It is not obvious from the short blurb that I read that this requirement has been fully appreciated.

I wonder how my BTUs per cord of mummy you get?

Both of your last two sites (1. and 2. below) are pranksters playing with a powder keg of rhetorical words.

1. This one: Forgetta-bout dat the Wolf ate the Wolf-crying-Boy (--Besides, we's Harvard) concludes that wood, coal and oil are interchangeable commodities and the only issue is price.

What wolf dung! Oil is a LIQUID. Can those Harvard graduates spell (spill) "liquid"? Coal and wood are SOLIDS.

Children in elementary school learn about the differences between solids and liquids. Solids cannot be easily pressure squirted through a fuel injector valve to be admixed with oxygen and to thereby create a highly combustible mixture otherwise known as the big bang inside your automobile engine. Solids cannot be easily pumped through pipelines. Coal and wood leave behind solid ash product when burned. It takes a lot of work (and human deaths) to cut the solid fuel product out from where it is found (i.e. West Virginia coal mines) and transport it to market. Duh, thanks there Harvard wise ones.

(On a deeper-think level, well beyond Harvard economist capabilities; oil and natural gas are fluidic compositions which Mother Nature has pre-filterd for us by passing these fluids through porous filter rock before it gets to the trap dome rock reservoir from which it is extracted --or "produced" as the oil companies like to pretend. In other words, Mother Nature has already done a lot of the hard hard work (as Harvard graduates refer to it) of separating out undesirable particles from the more desirable ones. Yeah we humans still have to do a final "refining" step with oil to separate out the various distillates, but think how much harder it would have been if Mamma Nature had not silver-spoon fed us by pre-filtering the stuff for us over those millions of years through the porous rock filters.)

2. This other one: When-oh-When Will the last drop of Maple Syrup Ungunk itself from My Dispenser? plays the old-and-tired game of: When Will the last drop of Oil Disappear?

It's a deceptive word game. It's pure rhetoric. The answer is never. We will never get to the last drop of oil buried somewhere in undeground rock. But what does that have to do with the price of gasoline at the pump?

Deceptive word games.

Isn't that the same USGS that predicts a vast amount of oil in Greenland?

Jarrel does point out several inconsistencies in Matt Simmon's book. Those do undermine the thesis that Saudi production is about to tank dramatically but, IMO, Jarrell provides no argument suggesting that Saudi production can be significantly ramped up in future.

Apart from a couple of SPE technical reports Jarrell uses this presentation:
http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/energy/saudi-energy-reserves.html
for several of his arguments. It is very well worth reading and is the most detailed statement from Saudi Aramco that I have found. One should read it critically, bearing in mind the presenter and audience.

If there's a slow squeeze, this could go on quite awhile.  The poorer countries being priced out of the market, while we grumble about the cost but keep driving our SUVs.  Who knows, maybe we'll eventually be importing crops from Third World countries to make ethanol while they starve.

The "pain" is now:

Ford cuts 25,000 jobs, shutters plants.
GM cuts 25,000 jobs, shutters plants.

Airlines (Delta) go bankrupt.

The planes are falling out of the sky.
The cars are rolling off the economic shoulders of our highway to prosperity.

You don't see the pain?

If you were a worker at an auto factory in the USA, you would see the pain.

If you were a worker at an auto subcontractor company, you would see the pain

As they say, when your neighbor loses his job its called a "recession", but when YOU lose you're job, heck that is "pain". The pain is here. The pain is now.

(Didn't mean to pick on 'you'. I didn't mean you people.)

I agree that we can go a long way with hybrids to bring up the average MPG.  My concerns are: Time and Cost.

It takes several years for the national fleet of vehicles to change over.  The last car I had, had over 230,000 miles.  My latest has only 53K and I plan on keeping it a while.  And I am not the only one.  I saw a Ford Pinto last week going down the road!  It will take a minimum of 5 years for the hybrids to get more common just because only 2 companies are making them.  (Also, I saw yesterday GM is sticking with the hydrogen fuelcell tech.  If you have GM stock, sell it NOW!)

Then there is the cost of these things.  Look at some of the 'old beater' cars running around.  How many of them can afford a $5K to $10K markup on their cars?  Break Even analysis is not that hard to do when you don't have the cash for the alternatives.

I don't mean to say hybrids are a bad idea.  I am planning for my next car to be one (in about 4 to 6 years).  I just don't think they will be a panacea.  I look for scooters and motorcycles to make a big push.

The EPA database seems accurate wrt the closest matches for our two vehicles.  You have to decide if you are driving enough to earn back the premium on the cars.

I also drive a Prius (2004) and yesterday's 35 mile commute home, which is more uphill than down, was into sustaned 35-45 mph winds on rural interstate.  I set the cruise at 68 like always.  I passed 5 times as many people as normal.  The other 4 cylinder cars and tractor trailers were having a tough time holding 65.  The speed limit is 70.  My gas milage really took a hit.  I only averaged 40 mpg for the trip instead of the normal 47 in winter.  

In summer I average over 50.  Oh, and I car pool so there are multiple people not just me.  I used to do the same commute alone with a 4 cylinder Toyota pickup and 24 mpg was tops.  Bill Ford is on the right track in focusing on hybrids and green technology for transportation in the future.  I am rooting for him to catch up to Toyota.

What helps me get better milage is the feedback from a dashboard  computer. I think this innovation is an excellent conservation tool as it has changed my driving habits.

So far as hybrid vehicles it seems the cost of battery replacement should be written into the lifetime cost of the vehicle as well as with diesel vehicles injector/pump overhaul for those who hold on to their cars for long service.

I am waiting to see what will be out after the clean diesel fuel appears in the US after 07. Then I will make my choice of a car as my Sentra has good resale value.

Also, I am looking into a bicycle for my 6.5 mile work commute. What makes me hesitant is the 3 mile uphill grade but a unit with a rear wheel (weed eater) gas motor booster would help get my 235 lb body over that hump until I acclimate to this alternative.

On the hybrid front, the Prius, at least, can achieve even better than EPA ratings, if driven with the pulse and glide technique.  I'm still learning, but it works.  Check out this site:
http://hybridcars.about.com/od/news/a/100mpgrecord.htm

And these, for other hybrid "stuff"  This Prius palm pilot is really intriguing:
http://privatenrg.com/

http://www.hybridcarrevolution.com/plug_in_hybrid_cars_and_other_experimental_hybrid_vehicles.htm

http://www.hybridcarblog.com/

    The prius number you cited is still unfair. I do not know how one can drive a prius at a MPG as low as 47.6. I also drive a 2005 prius and I always get above 60 MPG, averaged over a whole tank. If I want to really stretch it I can get up to 65 MPG on the tank, and when I get sloppy I get just slightly above 60 MPG. It all depends on your driving habits.

and i was starting to think the playing field was going to even up re:localisation&land use.

this is really upsetting, I wonder how much pristine rainforest is gonna get chopped...

maybe the cost of pesticides and fertilizers will make it unviable in the years to come? or mabye a serious climate disaster...

how much can mother take??

Bike when whether allows, 25miles - 45min, go into shower at work instead of at home.
Bus in winter and in bad wheter when timetables are suitable (office hours).
Drive my CNG powered volvo v70 BiFuel when time is short or in difficult hours (eg when I'm on call). Its possible to get renewable CNG from waste in my area, Sweden. CNG is close to half cost vs gasoline, burns clean and when produced from waste doesnt add CO2.

The price has corrected due to nothing bad happening this week (Iran, Nigeria, US weather, today's petroleum stocks data). I would say it's a buying opportunity but Friday's preliminary Q4 GDP might change that. Approx +3.0% is expected, if below that oil may drop further, next support is about $62.50, if that holds I would buy then. Cold weather is expected to hit the NE USA at the end of next week, that may well influence price once we're past the GDP release.

Let me do some digging.  I know we've talked biodiesel a lot, but I can't remember any hemp specific biodiesel conversation.

I get high with a little help from my friends.

It's a crop, like any other crop.  Growing a few plants in your backyard or basement is an entirely different thing from growing it in monoculture.  

If hemp doesn't require much fertilizer or pesticides, why do they find evidence of the use of hundreds of pounds of fertilizer and pesticides at illegal marijuana farms in national parks?  That stuff is expensive; they wouldn't use it if they didn't need it.

This is the problem with any crop - switchgrass, algae, corn, whatever.  Growing in the lab or in a backyard garden is one thing, growing it in large quantities is something else entirely.

Automatic transmission (presumably prevalent in the US cos they haven't evolved dual function feet) probably makes quite a big difference. I much prefer cars with a manual gearshift except in stop / start traffic. It (auto) typically increases fuel consumption by about 10%, especially when accelerating hard from a stop, and you can make a much faster getaway with a manual shift car.

It might surprise you given that I own a Prius that I don't trust "all hybrids."  I have a bias toward the smaller and more efficient ones (and think their main benefit comes in city driving).

I've got to admit that the new EPA survey/database numbers show me something interesting:

2006 Toyota Highlander 4WD: 16.5 mpg
2006 Toyota Highlander Hybrid 4WD: 24.8 mpg

They've only got one non-hybrid user in their database so far, but if that holds up ... a 50% increase in mileage real-world?  That's pretty good.

--They are the same plant just different strains. But the problem is that authorities cannot tell them apart so if hemp were legalized, it would be impossible to police growing of the THC-producing strains.

"Third, HEMP does not take away nutrients from the soil, it REPLENISHES the soil, it fertilizes itself. "

--This is only true if the plant is left to die and decay - if it is removed for use, gradually the soil depletes -this is commonly overlooked by hemp supporters (which I am)

Hemp is one of the silver BBs. Those who think its a silver bullet are smoking too much of it.(Though I will say that the serotonin feel good of pot is much more environmentally sustainable than the dopamine rush from caffeine, sugar and other 'legal' narcotics. For the planet, we could do much worse than have a bunch of non-ambitious singing hippies with the munchies (for example, compulsive shopping three house ownin coffee chiggin stockbroker and family....)

One thing's for sure. The obesity problem will solve itself as food gets expensive! I personally have one awfully food-efficient body, so I'm set. If you had a car as efficient as my body, it'll get about 80mpg if not better. And lately during my 2 years of dieting, my matabolism slowed itself yet another notch. Time to throttle down on calories a bit more to start losing weight again after a month of steady-state weight. It's 25C/77F in my flat and I'm COLD! as of now. 2237 and 27/1/2006. The big problem is toerating hunger on purpose to keep a lid on the weight/mass. Sure won't be a problem as food prices soar like a Lear Jet burning steroid-laced diesel!

Fun note here: Diesel, jet fuel, and No.1 heating oil are nearly the same. The US Navy uses heating oil to fuel steam-driven ships (in boilers) and is used in diesel engines they own. And the JP-5 can be used in all three, jets, boilers, and generators. In fact, in Michigan, heating oil is laced with a red dye to catch No.1 heating oil users if they put it in a diesel road vehicle. I'm sure it'll work in a jet too. What matters is the cetane rating of diesel, and jets and furnaces are continuous-burn. A contunous burn device cares not about cetane or octane rating, only Calories/BTUs. Thus, a rich character could put heating oil or diesel in his Lear Jet (or Cessna Citation). And mostly, it works the other way.

Now, just for real fun about biodiesel: A liposuction plastic surgeon could, in theory, take the fat sucked out of clients, make it into biodiesel and use it in a Hummer, corporate jet, or heat his home! And run a diesel generator to run the A/C in summer. I call this "lipodiesel". For worst results, drive through Skokie or overfly Skokie or live there with the lipodiesel, and anyone who is Jewish will smell a grim reminder of the Holocaust. YECCH!

The key to the transportation problem is to have several parallell systems that complemet each other. There is a fairly dense walkway and bicycle lane network. There is a fairly good network of busses.

We have grown past the point where we need the busses to offload the road network. If 1/3 of the people using the busses used cars instead we would start to have capacity problems on manny roads. Now it is regarded to be a queueing problem if people regularly have to stand still for 5 min with their cars and it is actually used as an argument for investing in more roads and the investments solve these bottlenecks. People from Stockholm laugh at this.

Smaller towns and sparsely populated areas have a harder time to motivate busses. Bus services usually start with the need for transporting schoolchildren and if the bus anyway is needed it is made available for everybody and a few extra tours are usually added at a loss. Some of this rural bus traffic do not make sense and should be replaced by cars.

The majority of new local transportation infrastructure is roadbuilding. All of the larger roads built inside the town are built with narrow parallell bicycle/walkway road with tunnels under the car lanes. Adding such tunnels after the road is built is very expensive. New roundabouts and tunnels are built on the older roads to get higher capacity and better safety. Roundabouts are slowly replacing traffic lights. We need more roads around the core of the town and they are slowly being built. Another major public car investment are new parking garages in the central parts.  The mall area with IKEA etc is an area originally planned for light industry that is within easy bicycling distance from the town center and within walking distance from the area where I live. It is so popular that the roads recently have been upgraded with new roundabouts and tunnels.

The next most expensive transportation investment is a slow build up of new high speed rail links between larger towns. Hopefully this will reach Linköping in a few years.

The streets among the houses are allways built with sidewalks and are slowly often rebuilt as car cul-de-sacs (spelling?) to slow down traffic and steer it to the larger roads. The goal is to get the speed down to 30 km/h or less where people live and 50/70 km/h on the larger roads with 70 km/h where there are no crossing pedestrians. The bicycle and walkway network is then built to connect these cul-de-sacs in fairly straight lines. And there are also some such streets for busses only to make it easy for them to circulate.

The recent additions to the town are planned with separate straight and fairly narrow bus roads with ideal geometry for trolleys. The idea is to use them for busses and then if the town grows enough and the traffic gets large enough or the fuel expensive enough the busses will be replaced by trolleys on a roadway built for tracks.

The urban parts are mostly planned with 3-6 and sometimes higher houses with flats and space for businesses in the ground floor of higher houses. It is hard to change the horisontal zoning tradition into vertical flexibility. Some builders actually ask to not have their houses zoned for living/offices/shops/etc and some have been sorry for getting what they asked for when the office market had a downturn but plenty of people wanted apartments. In my party we have actually talked about forcing such flexibility onto people to try to encourage the long term vitality of our town. The byrocracy is very rigid and it is very hard to change the plans when they are set. :-(

This is interspaced with areas with small individual houses on small lots for those who want to own their own house fairly close to the central parts. It is dense enough for district heating etc and the dencer parts with apartments gives customers for local services. They often get more expensive then building in the more rural area but the average family only need one car even if two are working since there is a fair chance that bicycling or the busses work for at least one parent. Public transportation do not work well for gettig kids to daycare etc, its often ok for point A to point B but seldom for  A-B-C  within a limited travel time.

There is plenty of houses built in the outskirts, often in the forested areas. Since they mostly are built by people that like to be for themselves we get manny km2 with houses 500m apart separated by forests or fields. There are then clusters of houses near roads.

I do not see this denseley packed one car per family or sparse two cars per family as a suburbia problem. But some greens do, probably due to US cultural influence, they  try to make it hard for people to build their own houses wich realy irritates me. Neither the mall area have been a problem for us but manny shops in the old central part are slowly being converted into pubs etc. But it is hurting smaller towns within driving distance to it, they are slowly being outcompeted by my home town who together with the close by equaly sized Norrköping is a regional center. Those of them who have good roads and public transportation suitable for commuting are prospering together with the regional centers, the rest are slowly dying.

I think the point is that multiple lifestyles coexist and people also move between them. It is very common that older people who are retired move from their own house to an apartment they buy in the city center. Their old house is often bough by young parents with little kids who rented an apartment that became too small for them and often they want to have some country surroundings for their kids.

Being able to chose between walking, driving, taking the bus, bicycling depending on your current priorities and economy gives more freedom then having a car as the only alternative. But keeping the car option for as manny as possibel is quite important but can be done in a much more economical way and its is mostly up to the market to make the cars more efficient. I also think we will get more of a middle ground between cars and bicycles with scooters etc.

I think we get the same kind of benefits when it is easy for people to move between different sizes of houses and apartments. If we only had apartments or only had small villas or only had large Mc Mansions people would not have the same freedom and flexibility.

A curiosity is that all of the local busses since several years are run on methane from biomass, mostly from food industry waste. It is also starting to be popular to buy gas/gasolene flexifuel cars. I have not seen any gas/E85 flexifuel plug in hybrids yet but it is probably only a matter of time and obvious engineering. ;-)

I do not expect peak oil to have a large inpact on my home town as long as we find customers for our industry. Anybody need some Griffon fighters...?