The Oil Drum

and the heating of limestome to
make the CaO is done using a
fossil fuel, and the cement is
transported to the construction
site using petrol/oil vehicles.
So all that concrete equates top a
massive contribution to global
warming.

So our debate now should be centred
around 'which will get us first,
energy depletion or abrupt climate
change?'

Does anyone know if the CO2 emitted by cement production is counted towards a country's emissions for Kyoto?

It's all high-rise apartment blocks and roadways, equivalent to building a brand new Houston from scratch every year.

It's the same process the U.S. went through in the early 20th century, but a lot faster, and with a lot more people, and with cement instead of wood, because there just aren't that many trees to go around.

For example, if the peak is now, 5 years from now will our knowledge and analyses have improved to the point where we can say for certain - "We peaked in 2006, and it's all down hill from here".  Or, say the peak will happen in 2015....in 2010 will our analyses have improved to the point that we can say fairly certainly that peak will occur in 2015?

I guess my question is about the sources of uncertainty in all of the models and analyses.  And whether these uncertainties are diminishing over time, or will they still be just as uncertain 5 or 10 years from now as they are today?

Simmons says that we will only know the peak date after we are well past it and have the production data to look at.  If this is so, it seems like it will be difficult to get people/countries to agree that there's a problem until after it's already too late.

Back in the '70s, my employer added automatic adjustments to its large contracts for fuel and asphalt.  The prices went up so suddenly that if we held the contractor to them, the contractor went bankrupt.  So now the price we pay them for those items increases automatically with the market price.  Last year, we added similar automatic adjustments for concrete and steel.

I was just reading this article, from the Grand Rapids Press:

Material Costs Put the Heat on Business

The costs of plastic, resin, steel, etc., have all spiked.  

...last year, cold-rolled steel was up 66 percent while hot-rolled steel surged 124 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The article doesn't quite put the pieces together, though.  It talks about how energy prices are killing business, and about how commodity prices are just as bad, but doesn't seem to realize there's a link between the two.

Some business owners seem to be hoping China starts to export steel, and floods the market the way they have with clothing and gewgaws.  I'm not holding my breath on that one.

This is about my personal observations on concrete, energy, betterment of lives and the fascinating situation in China, also points north:  

Long winded preface that has relevance:  

I've been in alternative energy research for 35 years, including for Exxon, EPRI, others.   My curiosity is high about everything.  It can be manifested by such things as tracking power lines in the Yucatan jungle to see where they go (In one case a Maya pool hall).  I am also very interested in and have published on climate.  My house has also been a low rent refuge near Stanford in CA for foreign grad students/ scholars at about 1/2 the normal rent around here.  The students and I have greatly enjoyed the arrangement.  Among others I have housed 10 Chinese (PRC) scholars over the past 10 years.  That's my China connection.  

So -- with a backpack no less -- I went to Beijing (a) at the invitation of a Chinese Ph.D and  and (b) for a USEPA/UN/China Global warmimg conference

http://www.ergweb.com/methane_china/

Gave a paper on landfill gas energy which is actually very greenhouse cost effective wherever it can be done in the world.  

Shown around greater Beijing (greater area than Belgium) by my grad student friend for 10 days.  (Bus. and cheap cabs were about 25 cents US/mile) I was stunned, awed by the number of construction cranes with heights probably 100 meters.  Not just one at a site but in clusters of 3, 4, 5, simultaneously at work, building, on and on. Photographed a few thousand.  

I lived in Manhattan 40 years ago.  The Badaling highway north from Beijing reminded me of 3 or more Manhattans jammed together complete with crowds and traffic that is already approaching maddening.  

China undertakes a massive task -- to bring say 20-30 million previously impoverished people each year to a better life.  But note that those 20-30 milion people a year are only about 2% of their population annually attaining that better life.  And speaking with my friends, life is getting better even though needs and arguable shortfalls and flaws and hurdles remain great,  

Economic activity, and materials and energy use as China strives for these things strongly affects the world.  China is becoming to us somewhat like Pierre Trudeau of Canada once said of the US--like being in bed with an elephant.  It is not in the least surprising that Chinese purchases about doubled the world price of steel scrap and concrete last year.  Or that Chinese consumption will be a huge factor in world oil and natural gas.  And climate --they well recognize this but when you want to raise the standard of living of well over half a billion people what can you do? China is short of wood--thus relying heavily on cement.  

China gets into some CO2 abatement solutions. Merits of these will vary according to persectives. There is the 3 Gorges 20 GWe hydro project, and China recently finshed constructing a couple of Canadian CANDU natural uranium/thorium reactors in fine style. But I do not know how much greenhouse-neutral energy they are developing in their total mix.  I suspect there are major gaps in statistics, in the same way that elements of internal Chinese economy were not measured. Just the inclusion of these in World Bank figures raised Chinese GDP from sixth to fourth in the world

Took the railroad north to Mongolia, Siberia and Moscow.  All the way north to China/Mongolia border at Erlian power plant after power plant is under construction. All coal fired.  Even in Mongolia where pop is about 2% of China's the coal fired electric plant construction goes on.  Got photos. And later on the great trans-Asian Siberian railroad artery I recollect clocking returning empty Russian coal trains  at about one every 10 minutes.  I do not know whether Russian coal consumption goes up or down but back of the envelope tells me that each train has fueled about half a gigawatt-day.  This is big time.  Is Russian coal-firing of electricity sparing