Chinese demand growth continues (for oil and everything else too...)

As we look at the world market for fuels, one of the major growth areas in demand continues to be China. And, given their considerable potential impact on which product goes where and from what resource, in the future, it is interesting to put a few news items together and see where the wind is blowing.

One could start by noting that China's economy has been growing at 10.7% this year about 2.7% above the initial target of 8%, a number that has also been set as the official rate for next year, at this point. And while there are some publicity stunts, such as trying to stop private cars driving for a day, that will both highlight the current reported consumption of 8.7 mbd by those cars, it will also highlight the benefits of public transportation, one can assume that the current trend of higher than official growth rates may well continue. However even though the power generation system is currently hurting due to a drought that has lowered water levels, newly built coal and natural gas plants should cover the shortage.

China's seasonal hydropower output has been falling since August as dry weather shrinks reservoirs, but two years of rapidly rising coal- and gas-fired power generation should prevent another surge in oil demand.

Power generation from hydropower plants -- which can produce up to a quarter of China's electricity -- fell 10.3 percent on year in October, raising the burden on other plants to meet China's 10-plus percent growth in electricity demand.

Output was down by 8 percent and 4 percent, respectively, in the preceding two months, as water reserves shrank and the southwest was crippled by a drought that state media said was the worst in over a century.

In their move to build a Strategic Petroleum Reserve, China has also been exceeding anticipated purchases this past month.
Of the total, 2.5 million barrels on two tankers were Oman crude, and one tanker of about 1.9 million barrels each came from Yemen, Russia and Kuwait, one source said. Crude traders had speculated that some of the additional barrels could be from Oman after top refiner Sinopec, the largest single buyer of Omani crude, was seen lifting around eight million barrels of the grade for November loading, more than its usual four to six million.

It was unclear whether the move was part of Beijing's long-term energy strategy to provide an emergency buffer amid rising imports or a commercial move by Sinopec, which has leased 10 million barrels of capacity for its own use as the government debates policy.

Certainly if prices are lower, and the Chinese need to grow their SPR, this would be a good time to grab that opportunity. Though there are other opportunities they are also taking advantage of.

Rosneft, the Russian oil company is now apparently going to invest heavily in China.

Russia's state-run oil giant Rosneft is to build hundreds of petrol stations in China as part of a plan to double its business in Asia.

The scheme is part of a joint venture between Rosneft and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). Rosneft plans to build a joint refinery in China with CNPC. Also as part of the deal, CNPC will extract crude oil from Russia's Eastern oil fields, and Rosneft will increase its crude exports to China.

Speaking at the opening ceremony for the Rosneft Asia Pacific office in Beijing, chief executive Sergei Bogdanchikov said his company would increase the amount of oil it sells to China by around 7 million tonnes to 20 million in 2007. Russia is seeking to diversify its energy exports away from Europe and is already building two gas pipelines to China.

Supplies through the current pipeline from Kazakhstan will be raised by a million metric tons, and in addition the Chinese can expect more supplies from Sakhalin Island. In addition the Chinese have arranged to receive natural gas from Iran
"According to the agreement, 3m tonnes of LNG will be exported (annually) by Pars LNG project for a 25-year period to the Chinese market starting early 2011," NIGEC official Majid Zamani was quoted as saying.

The Pars LNG project, which teams up the National Iranian Oil Company, French Total and Malaysian Petronas, is one of three consortia in Iran producing LNG.

Phase 11 of Iran's offshore South Pars gas field, which is still to be finalised, is slated to feed the LNG production facilities of the project.

and is now talking with OPEC about more formal relations, particularly to remove Chinese dependence on oil from the "hot spots" of the world. Chinese demand for natural gas is anticipated to grow so that they will need to import an equivalent amount to the Iranian supply from Malaysia. One wonders, as they look at larger quantities of foreign imports, if they will also start looking at having it shipped in solid form.

The Chinese are also making moves to open more of their markets to foreign firms, although the restrictions that they are apparently putting on those interested may limit the opportunity more than a little.

Those seeking permits must have refining capacity, an import business or wholesale supplies, the ministry said in guidelines published on its Web site (www.mofcom.gov.cn).

They must also have at least 10,000 cubic meters of storage capacity, and access to pipelines, dedicated rail lines, docks or specially equipped vehicles for transport.

Total, however, plans on being one of the players.

Looks as though there is a lot going on over there.

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Exponential Rates of Change

I have previously commented on the top two oil importers--the US and China--versus the top two oil exporters--KSA and Russia.

First, all four regions are showing exponential increase in domestic consumption--KSA and Russia a year over year increase of 13% from 2004 to 2005, with no signs of any decrease on the horizon.

Regarding production, the US and KSA are currently showing production declines.  China and Russia are both basically flat, to slightly up.  I predict that both China and Russia will soon start showing production declines.

In any case, at this point in time, 12/06, what the top two importers want to import is increasing exponentially, while what the top two exporters are jointly exporting is declining exponentially.  I estimate that the combined exports from KSA and Russia cannot currently meet the combined demand from the US and China.

The bidding wars have commenced.  As Deffeyes said, let's hope the bidding wars are fought with currencies and not with nukes.

At some point I am beginning to wonder, though... one can not have flat production and all these increases in Chinese demand and not have conflicting numbers beyond the range of error bars. So how big, exactly, are those error bars and when are we going to either see a re-alignment of the data based on the evidence OR a correction of either production and/or consumption numbers?

My only other explanation would be that while China is using more SOMEONE else has to be using less. Which countries are SOMEONE?

Which countries are SOMEONE?

The poorest countries first, in areas like Africa, (and the poorer people in richer countries) then the demand destruction will move "Up the food-chain."

Do we have any statistics on this, or is it just anecdotal?
Leanan has posted several stories regarding the problems in poorer countries due to energy supply and pricing issues.

But in any case, world production and exports are clearly going down.  We can argue why, but the production and exports are falling as the mathematical HL models predicted.  So, someone is conserving.  

Our problem here in the states is that our demand for imports is going up for two reasons:  falling production and increasing demand.  For our  import demand to stay constant, our demand, in terms of barrels per day, has to fall at the same rate that our production is falling.

An excellent TOD article would be for someone to document the incidence and spread of demand destruction in the poorest countries/social classes, to help us get beyond the current scattershot glimpses of energy-induced social stress in these geographic areas and social spaces.  This would be especially helpful in the current "debate" between WT and RR.
Hello LoveOregon,

I hope they include that as blackouts, less water-pumping, declining transport infrastructure of all kinds,  and other undesired effects mount: that water & food shortages will directly determine the resulting violence levels.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Hello LO - this is the best I've seen so far that has the worrying trend of haves and have nots in the data. I've been thinking of a post on this, but a cursory look so far does not show significant trends yet. A lot of the very poor countries consume so little oil - I don't think they are even recorded. The chart is from the. Norwegian energy crisis blog


It's a good chart, we can see clearly that the price increase since 2001 is well correlated with the growth in the Chinese imports.
Yes, but good correlation alone does not prove cause and effect. The rise in oil price could be due to something else entirely...
I covered this issue at some length in Consumption Winners and Losers.  The key graph is probably this one:





<small>
Top countries by percentage decline in oil usage 2004-2005.  Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.
</small>

I agree with Westexas on this point - a look at last years bp stat review (2006) shows that India actually consumed less oil last year (2005) and I think a continuation of this trend throughout the developing world could become very messy.  I see four main groups:

Oil exporters - perhaps the strongest group
OECD
China
The rest

And the pain and trouble is likley to start in "the rest" - big Asian countries like India, Indonesia and Pakistan, Latin American countries, FSU republics - Ukraine and Belarus, and Africa - IMO.  Could start with gas this winter - if its cold.

It looks like 2005 was the Peak Export year.  Even if, by some miracle, production increases in the exporting group as whole, their domestic consumption is increasing so fast that I don't seem them showing increasing exports.
IMHO, the USA is next up the food chain.  

The US has a MASSIVE balance of trade deficit, high oil use/capita with a low "price elasticity of demand" (absent recession/depression).

Japan, China, India and the EU can export enough to oil exporters to pay for what they need/want.  (In the case of India, ~1 million workers). Most of those nations listed can cut back on oil consumption fairly easily w/o major social & economic disruptions.  To varying degreees, they all have leadership that recognizes the problem and are taking inadequate steps to prepare. (Better to take 1/4th, 1/3rd or 1/2 the needed infrastructure, etc. steps today than none at all, see GWB).

None of the above is true for the US.

The suffering will NOT be spread evenly, and the US seems near the front of the queue to me.

Best Hopes for the next US President,

Alan

The us must, by definition, run a massive deficit if other importers are to have the dollars required to fund their oil and other commodity imports, following which the exporters cycle their surplus dollars back to the us for bond and other investments.  The us is, in effect, the world fed reserve that provides the liquidity required to finance world trade.  A nice role for us because, as a by-product, the world ships us goods and services in grateful thanks for our service.
the US economy is so extremely wasteful when it comes to energy that we could save a million barrels per day without really noticing...
We seemed to notice a less than 1 million/day reduction immediately after Katrina & Rita.

The US has a low, not a high, price elasticity of demand :-((

So even 250,000 b/day short term reductions take major changes in "behavior".

Best Hopes for a high long term price elasticity of demand for EVERYONE, (It's a good thing)

Alan

From a geopolitical perspective, I believe the US is ripe to be "Suezed" ( a verb I coined after reading westexas' reminder that the combination of threatened oil production cutbacks and US dumping of British debt to crash the pound were key parts of the US strategy to force the British to abandon the Suez Canal in 1956. Collusion between China and Iran, or China and KSA, or worse, China, Iran, and KSA, could force the US to its knees unless we were willing to go nuclear. And I don't think anyone wants that or even believes we would do that.
Bullshit. You need to read that history for yourself. You know nothing about Suez. You just proved it. C'mon, man, do us a favor. You are intersested in this case. So I suggest you read something about it. You meant me to give you some leads?

Westexas is a good guy, but you'll get much better historical references from me. And you can work your way off both. Make up your own mind...

In fact, you're gonna have to follow my leads to prove non-partisan. Gotcha. Trust me, you'll like it.

1956 was a great year.

Warning:

Even SendOilPlease and AngryChimp will like this. This is why Oil CEO still has friends.[roll soundtrack now]

Japan:

09:55 07Dec2006 RTRS-Japan Nov oil data suggest 6 pct drop in demand

    TOKYO, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Japanese oil demand likely resumed this year's falling streak in November, dropping about 6 percent from a year ago as the winter got off to a mild start, Reuters calculations based on industry data show.

    Oil product deliveries in the world's third-largest consumer over the four weeks to Dec. 2 fell 5.7 percent from a year earlier to 14.26 million kilolitres (89.7 million barrels), according to calculations based on fuel production, imports, exports and stock data from the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ).

    The calculations, which exclude naphtha as no weekly data was available from last year, mimic those made by the U.S. Department of Energy to estimate domestic consumption.

    Official data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) will be released on Dec. 28.
    The data suggest that the slump in demand this year continued into November, weighing on Asian distillate markets that have been under pressure from high Japanese winter kerosene stocks.

    Oil demand rose by 0.9 percent in October, the first increase in six months, thanks to a pick-up in gasoline demand after pump prices fell sharply from record highs.

    But overall this year has been marked by significantly weaker fuel demand, including a drop in September to the lowest monthly sales since September 1991.

    Reuters calculations showed that kerosene sales dropped by 3.2 percent over the past four weeks to 2.5 million kl (about 560,000 barrels per day) due to mild weather that limited homeowners demand for the heating fuel.

    In October sales slumped 6.8 percent to 1.27 million kl (258,000 bpd), the lowest level for any October since 1972 as mild conditions limited use by homeowners, according to METI.

    The calculations also showed that sales of gasoline, which make up about a fifth of fuel use, fell 1.8 percent in the four weeks from a year earlier to 4.45 million kl (1 million bpd).

    The decline would be a reversal from a 4.4 percent year-on-year rise in October.
    The data also suggested an 8.4 percent fall in crude imports.
 ((Reporting by Osamu Tsukimori; Reuters Messaging: osamu.tsukimori.reuters.com@reuters.net; +81-3-3432-7391))

Note that Japan's population is aging and shrinking fairly rapidly, which of course affects consumption. Same is true for Germany, Italy etc.
I've lived in and around Tokyo for ~5 years without a car. I would observe that a car is basically a luxury. In general, it's not necessary for life here, and is a waste of time for most commuters... that's not to say that the roads aren't packed, but the weekends always seem worse.

My suspicion is that Japan can reduce the amount of oil that it uses rather quickly, and with minimal affect on society.

I'm in Tokyo right now.

Yeah, the roads are packed on the weekends, but that doesn't mean a lot of people are driving. Tokyo's road network has a terribly small capacity, it doesn't take much to pack them full of traffic.

I don't think Japan can reduce its oil usage much at all. There is basically no wastage.

Inside Tokyo people rarely use their car (I hardly use mine). Outside of The major cities demand is very inelastic. If you don't drive you can't go anywhere.

Almost all cars are tiny little fuel efficient things. Heck the mini looks big around here.

You could save some fuel by reducing non essential driving, but there isn't that much to cut.

We could cut 25% overnight. We could cut an additional 25% inside of 30 days. We are the most dynamic society that has ever graced God's earth. Who the fuck are you kidding?
What's this "we" crap? You live in Japan now?

Do you know how much oil I use a day? Round about zero barrels.

Don't drive. Home isn't heated. Water heated by NG. Electrcity come mainly from Nuke and NG and I use a small fraction you use a day.

So how the heck are "we" going to cut our oil usage by 25%?

I was talking about US usage.

I know exactly how much you use.

Stop fucking around.

Respond, Rethin. You can work this. not well. But I can try to make this look good. Try. Serious.
I really only meant that the usage is currently largely discretionary, and the infrastructure is largely in place to abolish moving things by truck. There is quite a bit of that still going on - try getting out of Tokyo on when of the days when the roads are cheaper for trucking.

Don't think geothermal is fully exploited, and the lack of a national grid makes it difficult to tap the wind power potential of places like tohoku / hokkaido.

These seem like minor changes to the Japan energy mix compared to the horror that american society faces.

Good to see some more discussion of japan here.

I really only meant that the usage is currently largely discretionary

Maybe you have some numbers on this, but my thinking was driving was mostly non-discretionary. If you are outside the major cities you have to drive to get around. If you are in the cities you take the train. Heck, even the taxis are LNG.
I suppose there is some discretionary driving on the weekends, up to the ski slopes and what not, but it can't be that much.

As to rail, isn't almost all freight moved by electrified rail already? Except for the last mile. And they even outlawed truck idling for deliveries.

try getting out of Tokyo on when of the days when the roads are cheaper for trucking
Couldn't tell you. I almost never drive. Tried driving last weekend and instantly regretted it. yuck.

BTW where are you at? I'm in Kanagawa.

Regular 007 aren't you?
No, i don't have numbers - i'm going on instinct :) I rarely drive (not having a car limits that...) but did spend a few months commuting out to hachioji a few years ago. There are days when there are huge numbers of trucks on the expressways. As it was explained to me, there are days when the tolls are lowers... only once or twice a month.

I'll spent sometime looking for non-discretionary / discretionary numbers, but it'll be painful.

Also in kanagawa-ken, denentoshi line.

Not sure how long I can keep from laughing. Engage sniper teams on my signal. Wait?! Whoever said anything about nuclear material? 90 seconds to target. Do not engage. Look. We need more information. You went over my head. Do you have a visual? 1-9-Zero. Roger. 15 seconds. Negative. Target is no longer a threat. Paranoia. Wheels up and clear. Safely.

Noone is getting the sack!

Sorry.

Yeah, me too.

Whispers.

The French tipped us off. Which is weird. Cuz the French never do us any favors.

(How do you spell wierd?)

This is a shocker of an excercise.

Theoretical weak link.

Tell the Libyans track 5 'Mein' Deftones latest.

So here's my question...

Thank you for your concern.

Me neither.

Bad move.

'The Idiot'

What do you know that I don't

I dunno

Let them drop some oneliners

They can't

They are not poets but they wish they were

yes but they wish they were aggh they are lazy that is how we fish them out

they cant complete lines they are fucktards

watch this

see what I say

neither smekhovo nor hagens could possibly sneak in

this is impervious barbed wire

I'll show you why shortly

You can't. We developed this method.

I'll spent sometime looking for non-discretionary / discretionary numbers, but it'll be painful.

Don't worry about it. Only the two of us care, if that many.

BTW I'm on the Odakyu sen.

I'm torn on Japan. I can't decide if its the best place to be in the event of a crash or one of the worst.

The economy is tied to producing consumer goods (my job certainly is) and in a depression will take a huge hit. Not to mention the huge energy imports.

Yet we have so much electrified rail, and most of the food is produced in Japan.

My life boat is in the States. I just wonder if abandoning Japan for the US is a good idea or bad.

Man, I really hate PO :-(

Sorry, maybe some other time. You're improving. I'll give you that.
Another possible explanation: I read that the Japanese are getting big into energy efficiency in their housing, and use lots of alternative energy too (particularly PVs). As this movement gains momentum, demand for oil will naturally fall (I am assuming that currently oil is used for heating directly or via electricity generated in oil fired power stations). This is a model we should be emulating here in North America (California excepted), but are simply not bothering to...though we might be forced to soon :-)
Actually most Japanese home are not centrally heated. Rooms are heated with kerosene space heaters (sometimes electric).

You can't get much more energy efficient than that.

The big thing now is to build a new house that has insulation! Up till recently homes have had 0 insulation. I live in a realativly new apartment building (15 years old) and I can feel the wind blow through my walls in spots! And no, its not a slum, that's just how they build them here.

One thing I don't know and really would like to know is how we get our electricity. Is it nuke, oil or LNG?

But since Japanese homes used tiny amounts of electricity (you should see the size of my fridge!) you can't save much oil here even if the elec plants were oil fired.

As to PV's, if they are popular they are hard to see. I don't see them around much at all.

We're down to ~160KWh a month for a good nine months of the year - not much more to cut there. We tend to live with the cold until January... and use a heated pad under the carpet in the evenings.

http://www.cslforum.org/japan.htm has numbers on power generation.

Out in the suburbs there are quite a few house with PV. And i see new houses with solar water heaters and PV.

Great site.

Too bad they don't break elec production down past "conventional thermal." I wonder how much of that is NG and how much of that is oil.

I was shocked at the coal numbers.

But this really got me
Japan is presently the world's fourth-greatest energy consumer

Where the heck does all the energy go?