http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-23T135528Z_01_L2 3573301_RTRUKOC_0_UK-RUSSIA-MARKET.xml

Every collapse this winter seems to include a puzzled statement by some official that the roof was designed for "that much" snow load.

NAIROBI - Farming activities in the North Rift region have been thrown into disarray due to an acute shortage of diesel. The situation has been made worse by the region's agriculture sector being highly mechanised.

The fuel shortage has dealt a serious blow to farmers who are currently busy preparing their farms, ahead of anticipated long rains next month. The high demand for the commodity has overwhelmed the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) depot at Eldoret, which has been unable to meet local and export demands.

Most petrol stations in the region lack diesel, and a survey by The Standard yesterday revealed that petrol stations have started hoarding the commodity raising fears of price hike.

http://www.energybulletin.net/13081.html

Think it will generate as much eschatological blogging as the Iranian version? The blog buzz of prognostications about M3 non-disclosure, Iranian Oil Bourse, Japan's sudden coming rate hikes, civil war unravelling in Iraq, housing bubble, you name it, it's getting deafening.

We should all start making an effort in posting some counter-apocalyptic news to hear the other side of the story. I guess I could just watch CNN...

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,185682,00.html

Peons like me won't be allowed to drive it, though.  :)

Another article about hydrogen-powered cars.  In the comments, someone notes the problems about getting the hydrogen, but another commenter states that there is plenty of hydrogen produced at oil refineries.

Keep an eye on this Supreme Court case that will have a major impact on water power. The technical issue is whether water from dams needs a discharge permit, with important stakes on both sides. The material below is a case summary from Cornell Law School and the link goes to more information, including briefs and other materials.

S.D. Warren Co. v. Maine Board of Environmental Protection
(04-1527)
    Oral argument date: Feb 21, 2006

STATUTORY INTERPRETATION, CLEAN WATER ACT, PROPERTY LAW,
ENVIRONMENTAL LAW, HYDROPOWER REGULATION, ENERGY PRODUCTION

Section 401 of the Clean Water Act requires that a facility
requiring a federal license, such as a nuclear power plant,
must receive state water quality certification when it
engages in activities "which may result in any discharge"
into lakes and rivers. In this case, the Supreme Court will
decide whether water flowing through hydroelectric dams
constitutes a "discharge." Petitioner Warren argues that
the mere flow of water through an existing dam does not
constitute a discharge on the grounds that the Supreme
Court had previously held in the Miccosukee case that the
term "discharge" requires an addition of water to the
existing flow from a distinct body of water, and thus does
not refer to the removal and replacement of water from and
to the same body of water. Respondent Maine
Board of Environmental Protection and other respondents
contend that state water quality certification is required
for dams because the definition of discharge used in the
Miccosukee case can be distinguished from this case.
The resolution of the conflicting
definitions followed by Miccosukee and state environmental
protection boards will have far-reaching effects on the
profitability and efficiency of hydroelectric dams, energy
production generally, and the environment.

According to the Hydropower Reform Coalition, there are roughly 2,500 hydroelectric dams affecting more than 500 rivers in 45 states that could be affected by this case. If Warren is successful in defining "discharge" narrowly, such that hydroelectric dams will no longer be subject to state regulation under section 401 of the Clean Water Act, then a significant environmental protection barrier to hydroelectric dam operation will be removed. While a victory for Warren would leave federal regulation intact, it would also essentially prevent all state regulation of other hydroelectric dams. Without state regulation, hydroelectric dams similar to those operated by Warren could be able to operate with possibly less regard for environmental considerations such as the depletion of fisheries and the degradation of river ecosystems, unless federal law directly addressed the issue. Although Warren's dams do not discharge pollutants into the river, the dams reduce the amount of oxygen dissolved into the water (which may degrade the river's ecosystems), pose a significant hazard to wildlife attempting to pass through the dam's turbines and bypass channels, and may impede some recreational access to and use of the river. Brief for Respondent BEP at 10.

much more at
http://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/cert/04-1527.html

Three factors are driving globalization in its present form.  I like to think of them as a form of currency.  I can happily report that economists have finally recognized the first two:

Tax arbitrage:  A country offers significant tax breaks to corporations.  Ireland and China--strange bedfellows--are high on this list, as are the tax havens in the Caribbean.  

Labor arbitrage: A country offers a cheap labor source to corporations.  Mexico and China are fine examples.

Environmentalists are well aware of the last coin, but mainstream economists are very reluctant to acknowledge it.  Unfortunately, environmentalists tend to be a wordy lot; we get lost in their concern for polar bears and the Thermohaline Circulation.

Environmental arbitrage: The last of the big three, which I hope will be minted shortly.  China and Mexico are of course stellar performers in this regard. Simply put: Go where environmental regulations are weak or non-existent--and keep them that way.

These three capture the spirit of globalization rather well.  They are the real currency.

Language is very curious: Things do not become real until we have the means of easily identifying them.  I offer all three of these in the hopes that these very simple expressions become as common as pennies.  When they do, then we may a way of talking simply and directly to those who struggle with what is happening.  Each can be tied to all the issues this blog has explored, even our dependency on fossil fuels.  Each is an opening into a very complex event.

Perhaps then we can coin some new terms that more adequately express what we want this world to be.

According to this article, the new pipeline will provide a big 7% of U.S. demand.

 $25 billion pipeline carrying natural gas from Alaska to the lower 48 states would play an important role in satisfying the nation's long-term supply needs, but experts say it will not reverse America's rising dependence on imports or cause fuel prices to plunge.

Alaska moved the project to the front burner on Tuesday when it reached a tentative pact with three oil companies to build a pipeline to transport up to 4.5 billion cubic feet of natural gas a day -- an amount equal to 7 percent of present U.S. demand.

The construction costs are going to be at least 10 billion above where they project right now unless commodity inflation ceases and reverses. Fat Chance!

Does anyone know what the ultimate volume recovery of the field(s) will be and what price they are projecting to give this 10 year mega project the green light?

I suspect that Iraq will now erupt into open Sunni/Shiite sectarian warfare.  Will this spread to surrounding nations (i.e. SA)?  Will they get involved in supporting one side or the other?  How long will the US continue to pretend to support the pro-Iranian Shiite government (that we never wanted there anyway) as they commit atrocities against the Sunnis, and how will our Sunni run Arab allies feel about that?  It may not require an attack on Iran for the ME to explode (although I still think that will happen too).

-G

1. US inventories are on the rise
   
2. News like disruptions in Nigeria and fears about Iran caused some short-lived prices spikes.

So is this just irrationality or the short-sighntess of markets is measured in weeks not 3 years?

Just for fun...

The PAC-Car II reaches 5385 km/l.

I make that 12,714 MPG.

I feel like a wastrel for only getting 50 MPG in my Prius.

From that NY Times article Leanan cites above

As envisioned, the pipeline would move 4.5 billion to 6 billion cubic feet of gas daily and begin operating sometime from 2012 to 2014. Alaska has an estimated 35 trillion cubic feet of gas reserves....

But if natural gas prices drop from their current levels, as many expect, economic concerns may outweigh the emphasis on security. If the forecasts of Professor Tussing and others bear out, gas piped from Alaska will have a difficult time competing with gas shipped by tanker from low-cost producers overseas....

"One of the things that killed the pipeline back in 1982 was the expense of the permafrost accommodations," Professor Lewkowicz said. "Today, it's going to be very difficult to come up with a design that can deal with current conditions and the climate changes that will occur over the next 30 to 50 years. It's a significant and very costly engineering challenge."

The United States, for example, is expected to import some 16.4 billion cubic feet a day of LNG by 2010, by which time overall U.S. demand could rise to 68 billion cubic feet a day. Current LNG import capacity is about 3.3 billion cubic feet a day.

Assuming the Alaska and Canadian pipelines are built, analysts say the U.S. will still face long-term supply challenges because of dwindling natural-gas production in the lower 48 states and rising demand.

"It is part of the solution, it is not the solution," said Gavin Law, head of the global LNG practice at consultant Wood Mackenzie in Houston.

• The 2012 to 2014 timeframe is 6 to 8 years from now. What are we going to do until then which brings me to...
• Both HO and I have questioned the ability of the US to "import some 16.4 billion cubic feet a day of LNG by 2010" for various reasons. Look here and here.
• Given these considerations, I would say the chances of any significant drop in natural gas prices in the next 5 to 7 years are about zero and would expect no drop after that timeframe either.
• It is naive to think the disruptions from hurricanes in the GOM will not continue to disrupt supplies of natural gas. This will vary from year to year but there is a reasonable expectation that we may get a year like 2005 at least every 4 or 5 years now given warmer sea surface temperatures.
• First, they didn't want to do the pipeline because of the permafrost conditions--but that was back in 1982. But now they must build the pipeline running through areas that are undergoing radical landscape changes (subsidence, ponding, etc.) due to rapid warming of the climate in the high latitudes. It is an engineering nightmare from hell. Frankly, I don't even know how they could possibly plan a pipeline in these areas that will start operating 6 to 8 years from now and then continue to operate reliably for decades after that.

To end on a slightly sarcastic note, now that the Earth is warming up, maybe we'll be saved by mild winters from here on out (but with the caveat that summers will be warmer too).

I think I'm pretty well qulified to play the "Court Jester" or "Holy Fool". Maybe I should just try to inject a little bit of humour into our "Hobby" when the boys start getting a little too excited. Haven't people been getting a bit grumpy lately? I thought we were all on the same side more or less? Is it the politics? Or the realization that were all doomed?

Is it out of order to call TOD a "Hobby". A slighty macabre hobby, were we discuss the end of the world as we know it, and none of us feel fine? Do any of us have any real "Power" to change things? I mean is there a TOD member whose really a four star general with a few divisions of crack troops, loyal to him personally, who can be relied upon?

In England were called members of the "Chattering Classes", it's not meant kindly.

Zipping back to humour, before I vanish forever. I'm somewhat of an "expert" on Scandinavia. In Denmark, home of "Smiley Faced Fascism", it's Finns who carry knives and can't be trusted. Swedes are regarded as arrogant, lacking in humour, stiff and pretentious. One Danish politician recently said the Swedes were almost another "Race". God, how these old ideas from Hitler's bunker come back to haunt us! Norway is so expensive Danes carry food with them when they go on skiing holidays! Norway has enormous disparities of wealth. The number of millionaires in Oslo is the highest in all of Europe outside London. Iceland has the most wonderful scam involving deep-sea trawlers, dubious tax-breaks, and let's call it "creative overseas investments".

Believe me there's an awful lot to laugh at in these countries, especially as many of them regard themselves as being "Moral Superpowers". One of the most amusing things about them is, that some of these countries are almost delusional about the level of "perfection" they have attained. I onced watched a Scaninavian Prime Minister giving an election speech. He paused for a moment, smiled contentedly, and said,

"Friends, we may only be a small country that doesn't carry a lot of weight in the world, but isn't it true that we've created the best society there is? Yet dispite this fact, we've kept our feet firmly on the ground. And haven't we remained the most humble folk in the world?"

I fell about laughing. I mean "the most humble folk in the world?" My Sandinavian friends just didn't understand why I found this statement so funny. Maybe it was a joke one needed to think about?

Excerpt:

My best guess is that the rising gold price may be the canary in the mine shaft warning of a growing and dangerous change in world stability reflected in investor sentiment. At times of growing economic or geopolitical tension, uncertainty or danger, gold is seen as a conservative asset or "safe haven" and a way to preserve wealth as it always has been for the past 6,000 years. That's a track record even the Dow Jones averages can't match.

There's a lot for investors to worry about now along with the new war drums beating I'll discuss below. There's the perceived threat of terrorist attacks, the continued loss of civil liberties in the West and especially in the US, the possible disruption of oil supplies, and at some point that "piper" waiting to be repaid for years of financial profligacy in the US to fund all the "adventuresomeness" and excess stimulus to keep the economy humming. And there's one other factor affecting the US dollar. Many currency experts believe the currency is in a long-term bear market that began in 2002, even though it rebounded well last year and is holding its own so far this year (a cyclical rally in a longer term secular bear market say the dollar bears). Some of the reasons given for this trend are the emergence of the euro as a competitor to the dollar in December, 2001 by the 12 European nations using it and the desire of other nations to diversify into other currencies (as well as gold). And its interesting that some Islamic nations have begun doing some bilateral commerce in gold dinars and China now has its first gold exchange. All this signals a potential or maybe likely shift away from the almighty dollar as the world's primary reserve currency.

EU Energy and Transport sector drivers
http://europa.eu.int/comm/dgs/energy_transport/figures/scenarios/index_en.htm