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Wednesday's Open Thread
Posted by Heading Out on February 8, 2006 - 4:37pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
As you wish . . . .
148 comments on Wednesday's Open Thread
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http://www.energyfuturecoalition.org/pubs/Biofuels%20Seminar%20FOLichts.pdf
NYTimes is dissing the Prius mileage:
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/08/business/08leonhardt.html
Odograph discussed claims against hybrid mileage on his blog. http://odograph.com/?p=446 I asked a coworker, and she claims 55 mph in warm weather, but only 45 mph in the cold, which makes some sense.
Regarding the point about auto manufacturers using the non-guzzlers to balance guzzlers under CAFE, I'd rather have the choice to buy one or the other anyway.
Of course I'd also like to have a practical, affordable EV, but that seems to be too much to ask. Which will be crushed first, the last EV-1 or GM itself?
Most people don't know that the Prius is also a PZEV (Partially Zero Emissions Vehicle) in which the first few minutes of driving have quite low MPG in order to minimize polutants. The on-board real-time MPG display usually shows less than 30 MPG average for the first five minutes.
I recommend the car for those who can afford one and in particular for those who do mostly stop and go driving.
How does getting worse MPG lead to less polution? There must be something I'm missing here.
http://priuschat.com/forums/kb.php?mode=article&k=14
http://www.empresstaxi.com/
<snip>...90 passenger vehicles in total, that include over 33 Toyota Prius (Hybrid) vehicles...</snip>
Not as good, but good enough for my low annual mileage.
Greater durability, higher quality construction, biofuel option (the older M-B diesel fuel pump is uniquely suited to a variety of fuels), probably greater safety and lower cost (I won eBay bid at $10,500) than anew car. And I have confidence that, absent an accident, it will be my last car (I am 52 and this should last me into by 80s, if I live/drive that long).
Keep up!
If both are driven for 200K miles in their lifetime gas should be $8/per gallon to compensate for the 10K difference in the price tag.
For those who want their hybrids cheap as well as fuel-efficient, the Kia Rio hybrid is scheduled to be released late this year. I wonder how it will be received. The economic challenge is that the cost of the hybrid drive is basically the same whether the car is an econobox or mid-priced sedan, so, from the consumer standpoint, the hybrid premium actually increases on cheaper cars: The difference between $11k and $14k (27% increase) is more likely to deter a potential buyer than the difference between $21k and $24k (14% increase).
Actually I think that hybrids are great. I am mostly frustrated that we do not move faster in the direction of plug-ins, which would already represent a qualitevely different step in the right direction.
The easiest way to measure gas mileage is the way I describe above. At 7 gallons per week, that's one gallon a day. I wonder if it can burn E-85 right. It would be a lot better to feed alcohol distilleries than terrorists! If I used E-85 instead, the terrorists would get only one gallon/week's worth of my "donation".
I bought the car becuse a bus I would ride otherwise started carrying an idiot who hated me for no obvious reason and had no bones about letting me know. Since transit must cater to ANYONE, undesireables get to board buses and trains. Something missed by transit boosters. And in Israel, transit is known to pick up suicide bombers, meaning buses are targets. And trains are too tempting for any smallpoxer.
If everybody thought the way do(and don't take this personally, because I've read some of your other stuff and am generally impressed) - and I don't know how else to say this - but, we would have hit peak oil 50 years ago.
People do, in fact, make decisions based on a broad variety of factors, some concious, some not. However buying a car to travel alone and burn even more gas because some guy looked at you the wrong way. Boy, that's the spirit. Did you consider shooting him?
Worse, the bus agency buys buses of such poor quality that you'd think they bought them from Wal-Mart. The back door is so drafty that it can't hold HVAC, meaning it's A/C'd in winter and heated in summer. And the seats are like a La-Z-Boy chair with springs and cushions and a suspension comparable to the axles welded to the frame. It's like riding in a storm chasing plane unless the road is literally smooth as glass.
I was considering a motorcycle before the bully emerged to make the long unpleasant commute that much worse. The buses are found in Chicago's suburbs (pacebus.com) and that agency makes the CTA look good by comparison. Let the bully harass someone else. I don't need a "yellow school bus effect" along with bouncing like a lotto ball every time the bus hits a pebble. I couldn't wait before I took motorcycle lessons once the idiot emerged.
You ask a (very) good question, and that's my answer.
The needs of the bureaucrats outweigh the needs of the many --Spock.
Fun note. I occasionally do Flight Simulator and always had some interest in aviation, though for non-noble reasons. Due to this interest, I often mix aviation and automotive stuff together. (like a "load of fuel" and "tank of gas") I do see a terror danger in DISGRUNTLED PILOTS becuse they are well-trained (and expierenced) who could, in theory, pop a copilot then put the flaps back up as the plane rolls to barely take off to hit the airline headquarters building a la 9/11. This would take only seconds and be unstoppable and only take a patient pilot to fly out of the wrong airport on the wrong runway. (only obvious to a flight sim player)
Since idiots are way more common than terrorists, this is a bigger hazard all around. We can see idiots as we drive. The "disgruntled pilot" hazard has precedent with an EgyptAir pilot and of course the disgruntled postal workers, and suicide gunmen unconnected with any terrorist group. Idiots become "independant operatives".
I bought a Kia Sephia in '99 and get similar mpg.
Did you complain to the transit systems management about the problem passenger? The system I worked for could ban passengers who were repeatedly causing trouble. ADA does not protect trouble makers.
The alternative to the bully was to wait for the next bus which would be the EXACT same vehicle, but with worse crowding. I have gone to a PACE public hearing before this problem, knowing that things wouldn't change. I spoke up about the other problems (not bully-related) and noted I only had a chance to perform as a comedian. Not good. The 3 execs/stooges are nearly unreachable - certainly without a car. (ironic, eh?)
The problem with the suburban bus system is that the management knows that the ONLY alternative is to do what I did, drive. The bully merely was that tipping point that got me to say "F%&k it" and proceed to drive. My conclusion is that mass transit and our suburbs are a very poor match, on a par with drinking and driving. :(
i was visiting L.A. a few years ago for a conference. i had taken super shuttle from the airport on arriving, but during my stay i figured out that for the return trip i could take a bus from near my hotel to the airport for real cheap. i didn't really need to save the money (was getting reimbursed anyway) but felt inclined to take the bus anyway. (i was poor years ago and certain habits linger.)
but at dinner w/ a bunch of folks somehow this came up and a guy there urged me not to do it. he said he'd lived in L.A. for like twenty years and could tell me with authority that the buses were a bad situation. crazy people, dirty, smelly, scarey people. he said, it's not like in the movie "speed" where the bus driver knows people by name and everyone is nice and clean cut and normal. he was quite clear about the risks of taking the bus and seemed to know what he was talking about.
okay so i figured i'd do it anyway. smelly people, big deal, right? so i took the bus to the airport on the morning of my return.
guess what? everyone on there was well dressed, freshly shampooed, normal, and not crazy. the bus driver knew people by name, and even had a discussion with one regular passenger about another who hadn't been seen lately. i mean, i figured the guy who warned me might have been exaggerating a little, but to find out that he was just totally, utterly wrong in every detail -- that was surprise!
the funny thing was, he didn't actually take the bus (he told me). he just "knew" these things from living in L.A.
(not casting doubt on your particular bully story.)
Bullies aside, the suburban bus system by Chicago could use a lot of improvement. But with the economics being like a monopoly with a greatly costlier alternative, it is shoddy at best - and non-existent as the norm.
I've grown fond of this little car, although it's already started to fall apart so badly that I'm going to have to get rid of it before the next autumn. It irritates me a lot when I have to fix it (I have the repair manual for it and some skills, but the spare parts cost quite a lot money), but every time I fill the tank I remember why I love that car.
If both (Echo and Prius) are driven for 200K miles in their lifetime gas should be $8/per gallon to compensate for the 10K difference in the price tag.
- not even then? If I compute that using 38 mpg vs 45 mpg I get about $12. Also, if oil got more expensive, the purchase-price difference would get bigger, since it costs energy to make the stuff. The real question is: does the hybrid pay for its energy of manufacturing, relative to the best we can do with non-hybrid technology. Just the battery in the Prius is about $4000, and I wonder how long it'll last - if you need to replace it before those 200,000 miles are done, add that to the cost difference... And that's the relatively small battery that has not much plug-in utility.
If we want to save fuel, we need to accept the concept of driving (or riding) smaller, lighter vehicles. Yes if you get hit by a large truck you're in trouble. That's true in an SUV too. So should we all drive Sherman tanks? Alternatives include: lower speed limits, and less driving to reduce risk. Even with large vehicles, 100 people die on an average day in accidents in the US, and many many more are injured. If that many died in some other activity we'd regulate it down to nothing, but car-driving is the national addiction and we repress the risk in our minds. The same over-protective parents that won't leave a 15-year-old home alone for an hour, or let him/her walk half a mile, will give him/her the keys to the car at 16. This while the stats show that car accidents are the biggest risk to teens, by far.
Question to hybrid owners: how well does the real-time MPG display match the gold standard: the comutation based on the odometer and the gallons bought at the pump?
I don't fully agree with you about hybrids vs small cars. First I don't see why don't we go in both directions in the same time (plus mass transit as a third direction).
Second and more important, hybrids are the first step to electric transportation. IMO, if there is a solution to our oil problem, it will go through scrapping those 15% efficient ICEs in the next several decades.
http://priuschat.com/index.php?showtopic=9624&hl=mpg+display
A short suggestion: Don't run your prius out of fuel. The computer freaks out and needs to be recalibrated at a dealer, and it isn't covered under warranty.
One last thing: The terrain you drive in has a very large effect on a prius' mpg. Here in Southern California we have a lot of mountains. People here typically get 10-20 percent less mpg than customers on the East coast.
I had this kind of real-time MPG thingie on a 1987(!) BMW 325is, and it definitely improved my driving habits.
Me, I am striving to create a little commuter that will say on the back, This thing might smell a little funny, but it goes 20 miles on a double handfull of wood pellets.
In this line of thought, anybody know how I can reduce gas consumption for the first couple of miles? I don't have a mileage meter, but my short commute to the train staion is probably in the single digits.
(and no, biking is not an option)
(aham a Prius is not either, I'm waiting for the plug-ins to appear before I buy)
It turns out there are a whole bunch of tricks, some obvious, others less so:
You wnat to make sure you don't open the throttle too far, or the engine control will switch to open loop mode for max power.
Block heaters have almost gone the way of the dodo bird, and perhaps global warming has a little bit to do with that.
A lot of today's fuel use is due to cars idling in stalled traffic. If we could pack lots of vehicles together in trains and have them cruise even 45 MPH in the HOV lanes, average speed would go up, idling losses down, congestion down.
And keep slow-accelerating heavy trucks out of the car lanes. Those two things should not mix.
The comments seem to cover it. I do like the Echo and it was my other choice. FWIW, I did take a snap of my mountain bike in my Prius. It has a fair amount of cargo space with the seat folded down:
http://odograph.com/?p=461
All in all, there are a number of choice out there these days with 30+ real world mpg. The main thing IMO is to climb up from the typical 15-25.
Click here
Note: it uses Javascript but it isn't clever enough to tell you if it's switched off in your browser.
Sugar beets are the primary source of sugar in temperate climates. They grow well wherever conventional beets and root crops like potatoes, carrots, etc. can grow. They have the same or higher yield of sugar per ton of biomass than sugar cane. Cold climate is better than warm for sugar production. Sugar beets are an anual crop and are huge, 5-10 pounds each. They grow very well in northern Europe and North Dakota. North Dakota primarily because of the processors there and the very flat, silty land in the old red river lake bed west of Fargo. Easy to dig beets in that environment. They are grown all over France, Belgium, Holland, etc. because the E.U. wants European farmers and they subsize beet farmers.
Like all other crops more acres of sugar beets are not grown because of the world wide supply of sugar from cane grown in the tropics. Farmers and processors of beet sugar have to compete with cane sugar in the global market. As long as cheap labor and subsidies exist for cane (and also for beets)it is hard to switch over to beets. Currently there is capacity or surplus of sugar on the market depressing prices. This is great, and desired by countries so that their citizens have cheap food. But it tends to drive farmers out of business.
It is all about politics.
Sugar in Canada costs about half what it does in Minnesota, and so we import a lot of Canadian candy, because they can make it much cheaper up there. The way the law works, there are barriers against Canadian sugar (and Canadian lumber and Canadian pork and a whole bunch of other things, and this annoys the Canadians no end) being imported, but because candy manufacturers have fewer and less powerful lobbyists on their payroll, the sugar barons rule through their hired Senators and Members of Congress.
During the final days of the Roman Republic, Senators openly sold their votes to the highest bidder. How do you say in French, the more things change, the more they stay the same?
le affaires is le affaires
(business is business)
Sorry, I don't speak French. Just faking it here.
I probably misplaced an accent mark somewhere.
http://www.southwestrda.org.uk/news/release.asp?
ReleaseID=1450
" Wave energy companies selected for Wave Hub
02 February 2006
The South West of England Regional Development Agency (RDA) has today named three companies it has chosen as development partners for the proposed £15 million Wave Hub project from 2007.
The Wave Hub aims to create the world's first wave energy farm off the coast of Cornwall by building an electrical 'socket' on the seabed around 10 miles out to sea and connected to the National Grid via an underwater cable....."
http://www.southwestrda.org.uk/news/release.asp?ReleaseID=1450
energy returned on energy invested.
scale(basically how big it needs to be to replace x amount of oil and natural gas usage).
how much oil goes into these technology's
and
can these technology's be made and maintained without input from the current oil economy, or at the very least the absolute minimum amount of oil and or natural gas needed for them to be made and maintained.
Imagine if all petroleum refineries were extremely small and crude. How would their EROEI compare to current refineries? I am always puzzled by why cost of goods are compared between industries with established technology and huge economies of scale to new startups. It took years to get those economies of scale worked out. Why would we think the current iteration of new technology is optimally efficient?
This doesn't mean I think renewables can replace oil. Only that the energy comparisons are not as unfavorable for renewables as usually displayed.
But there are three strong reasons both for giant wind turbines and giant nuclear powerplants.
Some functions are easier to run at a high efficiency in larger sizes, turbines and generators are good examples.
Some functions are needed regardless of size. The same sensors can control both a small and a large wind turbine but they cost less per kWh for a large one. Both a small and a large nuclear powerplant needs the same control room staff.
Manny components production cost are more depending on engineering hours and certification work then physical size. Material costs start to dominate when you mass produce.
This result is that nuclear powerplants, wind turbines, refineries and manny other machineries are built as large as they can be built. At some size you hit a limit when the parts are too big for the production machines, or too cumbersome to transport or require a bigger crane then you can find. Subdividing them adds complexity and sometimes it can not be done.
Maybe the assumptions on recovering start up costs are way conservative. With out the huge start up cost hurdle (because it is a wrong premise) maybe wind is a much better deal. Both energy wise and return on investment.
The bending moment in the tower will increase with the rotor thrust (proportional to the rotor area) times the tower height giving a total power of 3 of the linear scale factor. This reguires both tower diameter and wall thickness to be increased proportionally to maintain constant stress.
Aluminium is not used in wind turbine blades. The fatique strength is too low. The only aluminium used will probably be in the power cables going down the tower. You are corrrect about the carbon fibres used in large blades but it is replacing glass fibres. That's one of the tricks to "beat the 3rd power" of the weight (but at a price, financially).
Bending Moment at any cross-section = P x h + 1/2 x W x h^2
Where
Bending Moment is in units of Ft x Lbs
P = wind drag force from rotors and housing (lbs)
W = wind drag force on the column per unit height (ft)
H = height of the tower above base plate (ft), and
Hs = height of a particular cross-section above base plate (ft)
h = H - Hs
As total bending moment decreases with height, the tower cross-section can usually be reduced proportionally as height increases.
It cannot be reduced so the cross-section is insufficient to carry the shear loads (sum of all loads above the cross-section)
The horizontal movement of the tower at the rotor housing is proportional to the cube of the length. If it is necessary to limit that movement within a certain value, the tower's height cubed might become the critical factor.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/IRIN/92070fd11613ae55496df35250c9ff24.htm
NIGERIA: First confirmed cases of killer bird flu in Africa
ABUJA, 8 February (IRIN) - Tens of thousands of chickens have died of the killer bird flu virus in northern Nigeria, the first confirmed cases of H5N1 in Africa, the International Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) said on Wednesday.
Tests revealed that 40,000 birds had died of the H5N1 virus at a poultry farm in a village in the northern state of Kaduna, Maria Zampaglione of the Paris-based OIE told IRIN by telephone.
"An outbreak has been detected," Zampaglione said. "A local poultry farm keeping 46,000 birds was affected, of which 42,000 were infected and 40,000 of those, died."
Though Nigerian authorities have only confirmed bird flu in Kaduna State, neighbouring Kano State has also reported high numbers of poultry deaths.
Does anyone know the answer to this? Will plastics for renewable energy solutions get their fair share of the remaining oil?
However, electronics will require plastics, maybe not as much as is used in electronic devices now - there are other materials for housings, etc.
Rich people joy riding while diesel is expensive for the fire brigade or oil expensive for the plastics manufacturer making esssential stuff is more or less a rounding error. Its best to handle it with some social preassure.
And I would enjoy veteran car day when hundreds of old gas gusslers are taken out for a ride. It will be as harmless as old steam locomotives burning coal in the most unefficient and polluting way.
Per-capita consumption of plastic is not all that great (tens of pounds/person/year), and we could easily recycle waste plastic through syngas processing to make more plastic monomers. It would be more expensive, but it would be something we could easily afford.
"we could easily recycle waste plastic through syngas processing to make more plastic monomers. It would be more expensive, but it would be something we could easily afford"
But would it be more energy expensive? One of the things that I struggle to get my head around is (the meaning/implication of) the difference between monetary cost and energy cost. Money is a proxy for "value". If you're a peak oiler, then one of the implications is that the current monetary cost of oil is a very poor proxy for its energy cost.
So does plastic-through-syngas actually come at an affordable energy cost?
What would really assist in understanding the depth of the problem that we face is a workable framework for translation between energy and monetary costs. Howard Odum's "emergy" (http://dieoff.org/page170.htm) does something like this but it's a bit too abstract. John Norris's "ethanol calculator" (http://www.johnnorris.com/misc/ethanol.html) also addresses the problem space. Matt Simmons said that oil should be $182 per barrel.
What (I think) we need is something that estimates the error in (proxy) monetary costs versus (actual total) energy costs. In other words, for example, what should a Toyota Land Cruiser cost if monetary cost was equal to energy cost?
Has anyone seen anything that's on the path to answering that sort of question?
You're right to talk about the inherent notion of how we assign monetary values to such things, and I agree completely that fossil fuels are underpriced, simply because they're non-renewable and being dependent on them once they peak is a Very Bad Thing.
For electricity from a turbine, I think the market value of the power it generates can be fairly approximated by the most obvious means: Take the total cost to build, maintain, and decommission the turbine, divide by the number of KW hours it produces while in service, and add a rate of return high enough to encourage the continued building of turbines. (Using averages for prices and wind constancy at the site, plus accounting for inflation, obviously.)
As for the Land Crusher question, I think that's bordering on the economic equivalent of counting angels on the head of a pin. For example, do you think the LC should be priced much higher because it uses non-renewable gasoline inefficiently, or should it be priced lower to yield the same total cost of ownership per mile over the vehicle's lifetime as other, more efficient models? (I'm not being sarcastic--I know people who would come down on either side of that question.)
In other words, I think that if the energy equivalent of a barrel of oil can be generated renewably for $182 (Simmons estimate of the "should be" cost of a barrel of oil), then we could estimate (within some degree of accuracy/acceptability) how much we should be paying for anything and everything.
This would then give us a framework to begin educating politicians to get serious.
Even if there is no ready agreement about the calculation (and there wouldn't be) the mere fact that people began to argue about it would be a big step in the right direction.
With this sort of framework, we could estimate a convergence path toward the maximal renewable energy level that could be reached by the time we actually run out of fossil fuels.
This might move us from having fearful discussions on peak oil toward hopeful discussions on peak renewable.
In today's editorial, Friedman says he wants America to become "energy independent".
I don't want America to be "energy independent".
Only the dead are "energy independent".
Personally, I depend on energy for breathing, keeping the blood pumping through my concrete encased brain, and so forth.
As a country, America depends on energy for keeping the streams of commerce flowing --the life blood of our non-negotiable way of life. The last thing we need is "energy independence". Sounds cool --but that phraseology is totally ignorant of the laws of physics. What's next? A Declaration of "Independence" from the Laws of Nature? "Freedom" (Freidman-dumb?) is on the march yet again.
The problem with Friedman's solution though, is what do you think the ME countries are going to do? Do you think they are going to sit there and wait to die? Do you think "they" are stupid? Maybe it's the "us" who are stupid because we come up with all these win-lose solutions to the world's problems.
The US has started down the road. There is no return. The line has been crossed, and all the hydrogen/wind/solar/tide theories in the world can't take us back.
To conserve is to demonstrate, as Cheney puts it, "personal virtue," but beyond that it doesn't do much. See your therapist, move to Sweden, buy a Prius if you must. Or face the reality that is facing you. If you don't use it, somebody else will.
Nothing personal, but have you been smoking those "Freedom Fries" again?
Leacherous Lip Cheney has proven time and again that he is bad for America and good only for his beloved Halliburton. There are millions of us. If each of us conserves just a little, it will have huge impact.
Let me tell you a personal story --a true one.
I own a dog. The dog needs to be walked. Nature is Nature. I sometimes walk the dog through a local park.
When I first started, the park was filthy. Litter everywhere. Soda cans, candy wrappers, you name it. And of course, dog poop.
One day as I walked my dog (and I always scoop), I saw far away, an elderly couple picking up soda cans and bagging them. What are they doing? I asked myself. Maybe they are poor and need the aluminum refund money? As I got closer, I saw they were well dressed. They were not doing it for the "money".
We never spoke. But it bothered me. Later, it dawned on me: If you use the park, you should give back to the park. Each day leave it a little better than you found it.
So from then forward, I made it habit, that when I scooped my doggie's poop, I would also pick up a few pieces of trash. Heck, I was going to garbage pail anyway to dump the bagged poop. And besides, picking up garbage is excercise, so it's good for me.
Months passed and then another dog owner stopped me. What the heck are you doing? she asked. I repeated the story. Oh, she said, and walked away. In the distance, I could see her suddenly starting to pick up some trash. She had seen me do it. The example bothered her.
A few weeks later, I came back to the park. I could barely find any trash to pick up. It used to be filthy. And now it was slim pickings. Even the poop is not all over the place. One guilt trip leads to another. Some days I feel guilty that I can't find any trash to pick up at the park. How sad.
The opportunity cost is astronomical. I see it daily. Good people working on real tough military stuff who could be making things that we all know are possible, and even easy-and worth doing.
Yep, I know it's fun, used to do it myself, but I was young and simple and hadn't thought much about anything. But when are we going to grow up? Well---- on second thought, maybe never. Dead instead.
Naw- I don't believe it. SURELY we are smarter than that---aren't we???
Me too.
I was young, simple minded, and in the defense industry many moons ago. The waste was waist deep, if not higher.
After a while, it got so deep I could bootstrap on it, climb over the top of my cubicle wall and finally see that I was just one of hundreds of cows in a giant corral. A warehouse of engineers bent over their design boards. Mooh. Mooh. I couldn't stand it any more. Had to leave.
When you're doing MIL-SPEC stuff that's 10 year old technology it quickly gets boring. But the defense industry explains why so many engineers are Republican-leaning. They believe that's where the butter on their bread comes from. As long as you got a hawkish administration, there are always new smart pebbles to throw money away at, the shining castle on the hill as Reagan used to call it. He probably always believed that Star Wars would work. It's kind of like the anti-Nancy-on-drugs answer to technology problems, just say "yes". The nerds will make it so.
It's only when you get much older that you start thinking about stuff. When you're young, the world is your oyster and everything is possible. To infinity and beyond. Age makes you realize the world is bounded. (Well, it works for some people that way. I don't think Reagan ever saw the edge of the fog creeping in on his way of thinking. Ah, that shiny castle on the hill.)
But soon military hardware will be most all we design in the US. Increasingly not just manufacturing, but also product design is being outsourced to "low cost countries". It used to be that "adding value" to basic materials was considered worthwhile, but the latest management fad is that these activities are just grunt work that anyone can do. Now companies just want to have big ideas and get paid for them - and most of these big ideas are really in sales and marketing.
Pretty sure it isn't Walmart.
So the question remains - can you build a complex weapon system without parts from China? I suspect you can, but making one with only parts made in the US would be tough.
Also, a selfish argument - I use a lot of oil too, but I submit if I use my share more efficiently I will have more resources to spend on other things. Eventually, I will be wealthy and you will be poor (all things being equal) because you what you wasted is gone forever.
As far as the entertainment you get out of the SUV versus the Prius: what's so fun about an SUV anyway? At least if you had a 4WD with huge tires you could go play out in the mud with it :-)
In short - get a grip, dude!
If the USA tries to use only home-grown energy, will we all be able to drive Lexus Hybrid SUVs? Will we all live lives of energy-intensive luxury?
Sometimes I want to like Friedman, but he is too much about writing stories so that the target demographic will rush right out and consume.
The NYT and its assorted pundits bring to mind this old saying: "What does it profit a man if he gains the whole world but loses his own soul?"
When one is wealthy and addicted to the luxuries wealth brings, can one only imagine possibilities that extend or increase the luxury one enjoys? This seems to me to be the problem of the NYT. Desperate to engage reality but only on terms which will ensure that wealth, status, and luxury will be preserved or elevated to new heights.
Yearning to learn, grasping for truth, and yet never able to understand or grow wise. That seems to sum up the MSM.
What could make a difference to such calcified institutions as the NYT and so many of the structures that should provide ways for us to see in new ways and address problems meaningfully? I'm not sure.
money.cnn.com/2006/02/08/news/international/pluggedin_fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes
Individually conservation prepares you for the inevitable future of scarcity and saves you some money along the way. Collectively it can buy us critical time. But individuals are often too short sighted and greedy to look out for the common good; we could really use some sensible leadership on this issue. It's such a shame to have a pres and vp living in the short sighted / greed-is-good camp, especially now.
Its not that it says anything much that anyone on TOD would disagree with but this is a financial site not an oil site. Having said that they are not MSM being severely critical of the policies of Alan Greenspan, Reagan, Bush, Gordon Brown et al. In fact if they are right and TOD is right the "Perfect Storm" looks all too imminent :(
Some disconnect with the fact that they preach TANSTAAFL, but their ads pretty much guarantee something for (at least) not much. I just ignore the ads and enjoy the posts.
sums up all of economics
is an acronym popularized by Robert Heinlein in his excellent science fiction novel, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress"
Now you could have Googled that . . . .
I think "popularized by..." is a bit of a stretch. I would settle for "made slightly less remote by..."
However, having said that, I've spotted at least half a dozen references to Heinlein during the last week's postings. Now why is that? It is because Heinlein was not only a science-fiction writer, he was an engineer. Not only was he a science-fiction writer, he was the best-known (and, arguably, the best) science-fiction writer in history. Engineers have been reading and writing "hard" (i.e. where engineers are heros and laws of physics, etc. are not violeted without good explanation). There are a lot of engineers on TOD, and they are pretty easy to identify by their postings, because they all think like engineers.
Heinlein did not just popularize TANSTAAFL! he also created other words that have come into the language, such as "waldo" (From a famous novella of the early 1940s) to "grok" from "Stranger in a Strange Land," his most famous novel that sold many millions of copies and was for a while almost a handbook to the 1960s for its radically liberal approach to sex and scathing social criticism. Heinlein has gone to happier hunting grounds, but his books still read well.
Do you want to be afraid? Read Heinlein's "Revolt in 2100" where he describes how the religious right takes over the U.S.A. and turns it into a totalitarian society. I mean, think: Was this guy ahead of his time?
Heinlein's greatness was that he had the testicles to examine every sacred cow, and he used brilliant satire, clean prose, and an engineer's demand for justification based on solid science. It has been said that he wrote about Boy Scouts and for grown up Boy Scouts (as a criticism), but the irony is that he actually did write explicitly for boy scouts and explicitly made them heros of one of his novels. He was politically conservative, pro-military and loved guns, especially the .45 automatic, as you'll see if you read his fascinating "Beyond this Horizon" in which he takes on the issue of genetic modification of humans and its ethical implications. (Oh, BTW, he wrote that one in 1942, if memory serves.)
Many liberals hate Heinlein and consider books such as his "Starship Troopers" to be obscene glorifications of war. Now, here is a question for you: How many liberal or left-wing engineers do you know?
Sorry about the long post, but if you want to learn to think like an engineer (which is a pretty solid way of thinking), a good way to do so is to read all of Heinlein. Most of his books are still in print. Also, Heinlein raised all the important questions--yes, all of them--and he came up with some interesting answers. As a social critic of the twentieth century (politics, fatuous academics, phony religious leaders, etc., etc.) he was unsurpassed.
Beyond This Horizon really touched on population problems, didn't it? I'd also recommend Farnham's Freehold. I think of the posted sign (at the very end of the book), when I read survivalist stuff. And Glory Road, of course.
BTW, Heinlein, "Blowups Happen" story deals with the problem of accidents in nuclear power plants. And when did he write it? 1939 if memory serves.
"The Roads Must Roll," deals with social issues of what to do if you have a strike against essential public transportation, in this case "rolling roads" that actually might work. I've never seen an engineer who claimed rolling roads were not feasible as a form of mass transportation.
What about issues of extreme longevity? Is it morally all right to marry your great great great granddaughter?
What about slavery? What about sustainable societies on space ships that take hundreds of years to reach their destination? How do you make a nuclear reactor to power a rocket to the moon? (answer, read "Rocket Ship Galileo" 1947, the basis for the later film, "Destination Moon"
Can you make space travel pay? Read "The Rolling Stones."
What do we do now that we have wrecked earth? Read "Farmer in the Sky"
Now I do not mean to denigrate Isaac Asimov, who wrote science fiction as good as ever has been written and who published about 500 books in his too-short lifetime, but for Grand Master awards, I think the title of Dean of Science Fiction goes to R.A.H.
Indeed, to the best of my recollection, it was one of his personal favorites--in large part because it seriously annoyed so many people he did not have high regard for.
BTW Physicists I know are mostly democrats--much more idealistic than engineers, work from different premises.
Of the petroleum geologists I know, most of them refuse to discuss politics--sometimes on the grounds that it is bad for their blood pressure.
Economists seem to be about evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, which on the face of it is rather surprising because so many of them serve the establishment power structure as loyal apologists. I think it is an academic department thing, with some universities being overwhelmingly liberal, while others (e.g. U. of Chicago) overwhelmingly conservative.
I would be interested to see from the person who posted the comment where Heinlein stated that he considered "Farnham's Freehold" to be his worst work. Why? Because after massive brain damage late in life he wrote much worse novels . . . and then--amazingly--healed up and wrote a few good ones at the very end. He was severely ill most of his life and had to drop out of Annapolis due to, I think it was, TB.
The same thing is true of engineers. As we outsource manufacturing jobs we are outsourcing engineering jobs, especially for citizens. As a result, of the citizen engineers, more and more of them work for the government defence contractors. These contractors depend on the government for jobs. So citizen engineers become more and more Republican in voting outlook just as union members are becoming more Democratic.
It's civil service jobs vs contractor jobs.
Of course, you could argue (and many do) that the present administration is not "really" Republican...
In Europe, most of them, myself included.
I am definately right wing in Sweden.
It would not surprie me to be left wing in USA.
Not even being liberal means the same thing.
We should probably discuss practical political actions like taxation of fossil fuels, civil defence planning and so on. Deciding what political colour those actions have is not realy intresting.
On the other hand I am rambling alot about the local politics in my home country. I hope it adds some kind of usefull perspective since a purely political discussion easily can turn avry and disturb other discussions.
While engineers excell at critical analtyical thinking, practical design, and cost-benefit analysis, they tend to get lost when there isn't a clearly defined set of tasks being specified. They hate and can't handle ambiguity very well. They tend to have poor-to-mediocre verbal skills; and the ones that do have such skills usually go into 'management' and thus cease being real engineers.
Engineers will never save us because most of them just don't have the guts. And besides, most of them are wage slaves to large corporations and are scared shitless of loosing their jobs. Sadly, while engineers have the technical ability to make our energy situation much better, they are totally at the mercy of those (and usually far less intelligent) people who control resourses and call the shots.
No, engineers are just functionaries in the power struggles that most of them aren't even aware is going on around them.
I feel perfectly comfortable in severely criticizing engineers in this way, simply because I have been one, but no longer consider myself to be such.
Engineers have far more power than they think, but by their very nature they will never exercise it.
One thing I have noticed, and it is sad and I do not understand why it is so: Most male engineers seem to be very shy and lacking in confidence around women. What is worse, from the wives of engineers I know, most of them are happily married (which in today's society is somewhat surprising) but the great majority of the women (laughingly) made it clear that if they had waited for the guy to make the first move they never would have dated the guy.
I know more than one case of a 25 or 26 year old engineer who is a very fine man, handsome, no vices to speak of, good sense of humor, etc. and who has never been on a date. Speaking as a sociologist, it seems likely to me that there is a reason for some truth to the nerd stereotype, but it is not clear at all to me what the causal links are.
BTW, one reason engineers so enjoy reading Heinlein is that that the engineer-type hero always gets the (highly desirable) girl. Thus despite all kinds of obstacles, the hero is triumphant. Unless memory fails, he never wrote a downer of a novel or a story, though of course sometimes a hero dies heroically making the ultimate sacrifice for the good of the many.
I'm gonna ask my wife to go check out Heinlein's books again. I myself am too shy to go the library.--- (She made the first move; "Can you fix bicycles?" )
So Arnie the brilliant engineer and fleet captain (in charge of maintenance) comes up with truly ingenious ways to strengthen everything: Something breaks, then find the weak point and strengthen it--straight-forward engineering. Commodore Dick is a Ph.D. metallurgist, and what he does not know about strength of materials you may as not bother with. Day Leader Neil has to rescue boats in trouble, another engineer, and I think former Commodore Gunter (post-doc engineer) was hanging around the dock the day when we tested the latest hyper-ultra-super strengthened Lido, which by then we sometimes called the Berserkely 14 to distinguish it from the kind the manufacturer shipped. Now these guys average I.Q. is maybe 180, I mean they are the cream of the cream.
I am nowhere near as smart as they are, nor can I sail a boat as well as any of them; my background is in sociology and finance, and the only thing I excell at is teaching coeds to sail. So the wind is gusting over 25 knots and the boat is zipping back and forth with, I think it was three guys and two girls in it, and all the others are nodding in satisfaction in the firm expectation that the mast-breaking problem has been solved. But I notice something and say:
"The mast is going to break. Soon."
And all the engineers look at me the way the Trojans looked at Kassandra, shook their heads in wonder at such a nutty negativistic statement, and Arnie tightened his lips and stroked his beard.
A few minutes later the mast broke. Neil went to do the rescue and tow the swamped boat back to the dock, and finally, I think it was Dick, our big Dutch Commodore who said: "All right, Don, how did you know the mast was going to break?"
"Because all five people were sitting on the weather rail, and when a gust hit they would all hike out to keep the boat from heeling over. That's when the big strain comes, and that is what is breaking the masts."
The engineers pondered my diagnosis, mumbled and grumbled, and one of them said: "But it is obvious that they have too much weight on the weather rail. Obviously they should have no more than a net five hundred pounds on the weather rail, so that the boat can heel over and spill the wind out of the sail. That is obvious." (or words to that effect)
Inwardly I groaned and then explained to the guys that some people did not understand this fundamental of sailing, some were afraid of capsizing, and furthermore it is a conditioned reflex to hike out when a gust hits. To which Arnie's response was:
"We can make the rigging stronger."
But as a sociologist, I had another idea:
"No, let's just change the maximum number of people allowed in the boat from six to four. Then, unless you've got real heavyweights on board you'll never have more than six or seven hundred pounds on the weather rail."
Engineers grumbled that there was plenty of room in the boat for six people, that reducing the number allowed in a boat was not an optimal use of resources, that jumper stays could be added, etc., etc., and I could see I was losing out to invincible engineering logic, when I appealed to the Commodore and begged,
"Let's just try it and see what happens."
And so we did. And the masts stopped breaking. In 2006 Cal Sailing Club is still sailing modified Lidos, the number allowed in a boat is four.
The point is that engineers see problems as engineering problems. Doctors see things as medical problems. Psychologists see things as personality problems, and the list goes on. I've said it before and I'll say it again: We are limited by our educations as to how we see the world. I'm a sociologist (and a philosopher and I've got way more graduate credits in Econ than do most Ph.D.s in that discipline, and a big-time science-fiction fan), and so maybe I can sometimes see things engineers cannot. Again, I want to emphasize, I was the least smart person in the bunch, but my perception of what the problem did not automatically assume that what appears to be an engineering problem requires an engineering solution.
I didn't learn about Murphy's Law in school. I learned about it on the job, from other engineers; older wiser engineers. They taught me not to be smug about anything. We humans are barely capable of doing anything right.
Unfortunately, they are also unsurpassed at complicating that which is very simple.
Never give a simple routine task to a group of engineers .... you will be sorry!
Lawyer education compounded on top of a BS liberal arts education.
The media generally is as poorly educated as most lawyers.
http://www.prosefights.org/nmlegal/judicialraces2004/judicialraces2004.htm
http://www.prosefights.org/whitman/whitman.htm
Both avoided substantive college courses.
I'm an engineering student, and I consider myself liberal WRT the 'center' position in USA politics.
I've encountered that reaction, but I wonder how many of those objecting have actually read the book? I read it for the first time a little over a year ago, and most of it seemed rather dated.
Example: the 'Mobile Infantry' are a power projection force; in the war shown, they only fight against other entire species - no difficulty telling friend from foe. Several wars since 1959 have demonstrated the relevance of that problem to modern warfare.
However, I do remember one thing that was very relevant to the present state of the world. Defense is not possible. The MI easily penetrate defenses by cleverly-planned, quick strikes, avoiding recognizable patterns. Sound like anybody we know?
I don't think Heinlein anticipated that attack would also be infeasable. Avoidance of collateral damage makes it very hard to hurt (let alone kill) an enemy dispersed among civilians. Deterrence (based on the credible threat of attack) is thus also invalidated, and the world's most powerful military is pretty much useless against a known threat.
http://www.thesocialcontract.com/pdf/sixteen-two/xvi-2-93.pdf
While I do expect that per capita energy usage to decrease, I expect that total energy production will continue to increase for quite a few years.
5 million years ago, two groups of chimp look-alikes split up, one remaining in the trees to evolve into chimps, and the other, as if in a defiant quest to drive the automobile. It's like we got voted out of the trees a la Survivor and said "We'll show ya!".
And we sure showed that other group, which is almost extinct. In the mean time, we invented Fire, which is when we became the "automotive ape". We figured out how to use energy outside our bodies to process stuff, like cooking and heating. Innovation ensued slowly at first, until recently. Now, we are in the grips of an energy frenzy, and when it's over, two things happen. !: We revert to a more primitive lifestyle, having nothing to exploit. 2: global warming makes Earth revert to a jungle planet. 5 million years from now, two talking apes climb down from a tree to see a derelect automobile and a skeleton in the trunk, after a lakebed erodes to reveal the fossil. With the skeleton is the non-biodegradeable drivers license with the name "Jimmy Hoffa".
Once clothing becomes impossible, we will have to re-evolve fur, making an evolutionary round-trip. And having to climb trees means long arms and shorter legs. We will look like apes. With DNA between us and chimps being a near-match this scenario is fully possible. IF we fail at saving civilisation.
for Los Angeles. Very interesting.
Reasons to be cheerful - or too little too late?
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?Section=ONART&C=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=247600& amp;p=7
Horsepuckie. It would take a democrat to talk like that.
More like it.
http://www.google.com/search?q=ceraweek+2006&hl=en&lr=&start=10&sa=N