The Oil Drum

The oil fairy is not coming.

The fastest way for Pemex to get the oil out would be by forming alliances with companies that have the deep-water technology. However, current laws forbid private companies from exploration and production activities in Mexico except when they are under contract to Pemex.

Energy Secretary Fernando Canales told Dow Jones Newswires the ban on Pemex forming alliances for deep-water drilling would slow down the process of developing the reserves, but won't keep Pemex from getting at the oil.

"We don't need just one, but many wells," Canales said.

He declined to give further details of the new oil find.

The Fox administration has been attempting to ease foreign investment restrictions in the state-run energy sector. But all his initiatives have been blocked by the opposition-dominated Congress.

don't get me wrong, i think we are at peak... or past it... i'm definitely a doom and gloomer when it comes to this (and climate change and... alot of things... peak everything).

i did read stuart's post and i don't think we're going to see any great increase in production. definitely not. i fully expect to see a continued plateau and a sharp decline before too long. i'm simply suggesting that it's a tad too early to... er, celebrate (and yes, the sooner we end this burning of carbon-based fuel the better so i do mean celebrate... though i suspect it may be too late in terms of climate change... shame we did not reach global peak 40 years ago).

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Money and Markets     Monday, March 13, 2006    
 Dear Subscriber, snip From the relative peace and quiet of my home in Palm Beach Gardens, I see a new
storm on the horizon that most people seem to be ignoring:
Iran's President Ahmadinejad is marching ahead rapidly with a master plan to take over Iraq, with major onsequences for investors.
   His special operatives have fanned out all over the country, training Iraqi militias and directing political assassinations. His military allies in Iraq - powerful Shiite militias originally founded in Iran - already dominate Iraq's Interior Ministry and most of Iraq's
police force.
   His favorite Iraqi political party, also founded in Iran, was the outstanding winner in Iraq's latest elections and is already the strongest in the country.
   This is Iran's stealth war to take over Iraq. It's threatening to upend most of the Arab and Muslim world ... destroy any semblance of balance in energy markets ... send global inflation soaring ... drive interest rates skyward ... and catapult precious metals through the
roof.
   It's a greater threat than al Qaeda or the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. It's even a greater threat than Iran's own showdown with the West over its nuclear power program.
And ironically ... Almost Everything We've Done - or Failed to Do - Has Played into Iran's Hands When we deposed Saddam, we flung open the guard gates of Iraq.
   When we disbanded the Iraqi army, we fired the guards.
And while we've been fighting the Sunni insurgency, we let the Shiite brigades pour in from Iran.
   Indeed, shortly after the U.S. invasion in 2003, as many as 12,000 armed men - Iraqi exiles and Iranian intelligence officers - crossed the border to seize Iraqi towns and government offices, filling the vacuum left by the collapse of Saddam's regime.
   Then, to make it even easier for Iran ... We blindly recruited thousands of Iran-trained militia members into
Iraq's police force and army ... We hurriedly engineered popular elections that brought Iran's allies to power, and ... We naively applauded while Iran's closest allies took over critical branches and divisions of Iraq's new government.
   Old Warnings I've been warning readers about the danger of a Shiite rebellion in Iraq since 2004.
   And in August of last year, Time magazine warned the rest of America. They analyzed documents smuggled out of Iran. They conducted dozens of interviews with U.S., British and Iraqi intelligence officials. They talked to armed dissidents, Iraqi militias and even an Iranian agent. Their conclusion: "In their scope and ambition, Iran's activities rival those of the U.S. and its allies ... "There is a gnawing worry within some intelligence circles that the failure to counter Iranian influence may come back to haunt the U.S. and its allies,
if Shiite factions with heavy Iranian backing eventually come to power and provoke the Sunnis to revolt ...
   "Says a British military intelligence officer, about the relative inattention paid to Iranian meddling: 'It's as though we are sleepwalking."
   Now, just a half year later, the feared scenario is unfolding precisely according to the script: *    Shiite factions backed by Iran have indeed come to power ...
*Those Shiite factions have indeed provoked Sunnis to revolt ... *And Iran's influence is already haunting the U.S., threatening to derail our last hopes for success in Iraq. Al Quds Right now, Washington still thinks al Qaeda is the biggest threat to America's interests.
   In the days ahead, you're going to hear more about an organization that most Americans never knew existed: Al Quds.  Unlike al Qaeda, al Quds is not a nationless, renegade band. It's a highly organized strike force now operating in Iraq under the control of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard.  And unlike al Qaeda, al Quds doesn't have to beg for refuge or financing. It gets all the protection it needs on Iranian soil ... and all its funding
from the Iranian treasury, which, in turn, is liberally lubricated with oil money.
   Moreover, al Quds (meaning "Jerusalem") is not an upstart band.  For about two decades, al Quds has been operating in Lebanon, providing military guidance and support for terrorist attacks against Israel, especially those carried out by Hezbollah and other Islamic terrorist
organizations.
   For many years, al Quds has also been operating as an elite international hit squad, responsible for political assassination in Europe and the Middle East.
   Most disturbing of all, al Quds is joined at the hip with the most powerful militia currently operating in Iraq - the Badr Brigade. Consider the facts: Fact #1. Both Iran's al Quds Force and Iraq's Badr Brigade were founded
in Iran in the 1980s, with the same goal: To establish Shiite Islamic Republics throughout the Middle East.
   Fact #2. Today, al Quds operatives are embedded in the Badr Brigade nearly everywhere in Iraq.
   Fact #3. The Badr Brigade, in turn, has deeply iltrated Iraq's national police force. Many say it is Iraq's police force.  Fact #4. The Badr Brigade is also the military branch of the largest and strongest political party, the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
Fact #5. A person who has played a prominent leadership role in the founding and training of both al Quds and the Badr Brigade is none other than Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, now the president of Iran.
   In short, Iran's forces are already in the advanced stages of their master plan to take control of Iraq.  Why U.S. Officials Can't Stay Silent about This Any Longer
Until recently, top U.S. officials didn't want to talk about Iran's growing dominance of Iraq - let alone admit its obvious implications.
   They figured they were getting cooperation from Iraq's Shiite militias against the Sunni-led insurgency. So they tried not to complain too loudly about their Iranian backers.
   Now, however, Washington is finally beginning to recognize the problem more publicly: In recent days, America's ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad, has been
denouncing the virtual takeover of Iran's government by Iran-backed forces.
   Last Tuesday, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld accused Iran of infiltrating Iraq with paramilitary units "to do things that are harmful," specifically citing al Quds as the primary offender.
   And just this past weekend, President Bush denounced moves by Iran to interfere in Iraq. But Washington is still not facing up to - or not admitting - the ultimate
danger: Iran and Iraq Will Form a New Shiite Islamic Alliance.  They Will Control Oil Reserves as Large as Saudi Arabia's. And They Will Cause Turmoil in the World's Oil Markets.
   The Shiites of Iraq have a very simple plan for us:
They will cooperate as long as we are helping them squash their Sunni enemies in Iraq. They will turn against us when they feel we're no longer on their side or they think they don't need us any more. And when we begin withdrawing from Iraq, they will rush back into the arms of their true allies, their fellow Shiites of Iran.
   The end result will be the second Shiite Islamic Republic in the world - and a powerful economic, military and strategic alliance between Iran and Iraq that is extremely hostile to the United States.
   Based on official estimates, an Iran-Iraq alliance would control 248 billion barrels of oil. That's far more than the oil reserves of Kuwait and the United Arab
Emirates combined.  And it's nearly as much as the oil reserves of Saudi Arabia, officially estimated at 263 billion barrels.
   Moreover, last week, Sean showed how independent estimates of actual oil reserves are, on average, only 55% of the official estimates, implying huge shortages in the future.
   Regardless of which figures you use, however, the conclusion is the same: An Iran-Iraq alliance would control oil reserves that are nearly equivalent to
Saudi Arabia's.  So now you have the full picture of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's plan. He's moving to ...
   *Establish a Shiite Islamic republic in Iraq ... *Unite Iraq and Iran in a Shiite alliance, and ... *Defy the West with one of the largest pools of oil reserves on the
planet. And now, you can start piecing together all the fragments: Ahmadinejad ... Iran's nuclear confrontation with the West ... the al Quds Force and suicide attacks in Israel ... the al Quds Force and Iraq's powerful Badr Brigade ... civil war in Iraq ... and back to Ahmadinejad. All connected. All intricately linked in one, multi-layered battle that's now looming. But there's more ...
Iran Is Spreading Revolution Throughout the Muslim World
According to GlobalSecurity.org, Iran's Revolutionary Guard has two offices dedicated to fomenting revolutions in the Arab world: the Committee on Foreign Intelligence Abroad and the Committee on Implementation of Actions
Abroad. Their personnel operate freely through front companies and non-governmental organizations. They use employees or officials of trading companies, banks,
and cultural centers. And not coincidentally, they have their greatest influence in the three other Persian Gulf countries with the most oil reserves: Kuwait, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates.
   Their plan: Once a Shiite Republic is established in Iraq, they will move on to others. Right now, Security.org reports that the largest branch of Iran's foreign operations includes approximately 12,000 Iranians, Afghans,
Iraqis, Lebanese and North Africans who have been trained in Iran or in Afghanistan during the Afghan war years.
   Today, these foreign operatives get most of their training in Iran, Sudan, Lebanon, and Iraq. They are supporting Hezbollah branches in Lebanon, Iraqi Kurdistan, Jordan and Palestine. Plus, they are helping Islamic Jihad,
another international terrorist organization, in many other Muslim countries, including Egypt, Turkey, and Chechnya.
   This is a big network. And it's been in operation for a long time. Eleven years ago, for example, in April 1995, many organizations linked to international terrorism - including the Japanese Red Army, the Armenian Secret Army, and the Kurdistan Workers' Party - met in Beirut. The
meeting included representatives of the Iraqi Dawah Party, the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Bahrain, ezbollah, and, most prominently, Iran's Revolutionary Guard.
   Members of these organizations then received military training at Revolutionary Guard facilities about 100 kilometers south of Tehran, including fundamentalists from the Persian Gulf states, Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, and Lebanon. Iran even established a special camp near the
Ornotes River to provide training in naval operations, mines, and diving.
   Tehran's obvious objective: To destabilize Arab Gulf states. To foment Shiite rebellions. To establish a virtual Shiite empire. The big tragedy: Ev