The Oil Drum

With all due respect, baloney.

People understand economics plenty well enough, and they also understand the corrupting influence of power, whether that power is influence over a market, political, sexual, or something else.

The major disconnect with mainstream consumers right now is that they know almost nothing about the peak oil concept, so they assume (incorrectly) that higher prices are caused by greedy corporations, not by supply and demand.  It's not that they don't know how supply and demand work, it's that they don't see the connection between that staple of economics and what they pay on their gasoline and heating bills.  So they look for the best alternative explanation, and they wind up blaming the "big, greedy, evil" oil companies, a group that's, in the mind of consumers, all too easy to blame for anything, whether deserved or not.

I've had I don't know how many discussions, some at relatively high volume levels, with mainstreaners about this issue, and I've had a very hard time convincing them of the scope and serious of the fundamental situation.  

It's hard to not try to predict the future positive or negative, but just try to keep our options in view, and you've listed a bunch of my favorites.

I don't buy the 'Stone Age' predictions at all.  We might see some chaos, but it'll be chaos by a people with an entirely different set of cultural tools than anyone in the past. Not necessarily better, just very different.  Our technologies won't disappear, and neither will the various blendings of world cultures that now brew in cities together due to the migrations afforded us largely with oil's assistance.  Who knows what wonderful and also hideous political concoctions will emerge as we move on from here, but there are certainly many many people who are, in fact, thinking about this, and will try to make the best of it with the great bundle of tools that we've grown up knowing about.

Bob

We have vast, untapped reserves in the form of conservation.  My wife and I have been running our household much as you suggest, and we consume less than half the average amount of electricity per household in the US (avg. is about about 900 kWh, we're normally under 400) and I'm sure we have by far the lowest winter heating bills in our neighborhood.

By driving less aggressively, I gain at least 8 to 10% in fuel mileage, without spending a single cent on a new car, different fuel, or any modifications.

I plan to add a solar-powered attic fan to our house soon, to help reduce our A/C bills, and we already make good use of the ceiling fans in our living room and bed room to minimize the amount of A/C we need.  (If you have a well insulated home, you can often run the A/C to knock down the temp on the really hot and humid days, then turn it off, leave the windows closed, and use a ceiling fan to stay comfortable for a surprisingly long time.)

Yes, all of these things will take some changes to our "lifestyles", and in some cases some up-front expenditures, but big friggin' deal.  We'll adjust and we'll do much more than merely survive.  It won't be a non-event like Y2K was (at least from the public view; I have a lot of first-hand experience with the behind the scenes stuff, and it wasn't easy or pretty), but the people, like Kunstler, who are predicting gloom and doom now will look nearly as silly as those, like Kunstler, who predicted gloom and doom then.

Thxs for responding.  Yes, I am a Doomer, but desperately trying to get people to prove me wrong by their aggregate actions.  I am like Matt Savinar-- haven't yet seen sufficient proof to become more optimistic in my outlook-- yet would be highly appreciative, and greatly relieved to see massive planetary efforts at Powerdown and ecosystem reform.  In short, still waiting to see if humans are smarter than yeast. Time will tell.

I think most people, even on forums like TOD, are not yet considering the full implications and ramifications of Peak Everything and Overshoot: it is so very much more than just Peakoil!  When global warming, mass extinctions, mass migrations, topsoil depletion, water shortages, pollution, continuing population growth, growing militarism, and all resource depletions are taken into full consideration-- there is HELL to pay.

I believe that for humanity to even have a chance at a peaceful Powerdown: the current nine gallons/day American energy avg. should be rapidly heading to the Bangladeshi avg. of two cups of detritus/day within the first three years of the postPeak downslope, but the sooner the better.  We can use all the natural daily biosolar energy we want [PV, wind, tidal, geothermal, etc] but we should be relentlessly trying to save ancient sunshine and our ecosystem for the Seventh Generation Ahead.  Will we ever learn?

Yes, I strongly agree with you on population control: TRUE ROOT CAUSE--more time and worldwide taxdollars should be spent on this ESSENTIAL cultural change than anything else, but this is probably the least discussed governmental topic on the planet. AFAIK, only China has made an attempt of proactively limiting its numbers by questionable legislative fiat, instead of widespread education on the primary reasons to create a non-violent voluntary cultural change.

Consider my now numerous TOD postings on the need for the creation of biosolar habitats distinctly isolated from detritovore habitats, and protected by what I call the Earthmarines.  TODers ignore widespread discussion because they are myopicly focusing on energy to the exclusion of the ecosystem.  Hello Folks--the health of the ecosystem is far more important than maintaining the Energy Fiesta, even if we make great strides at Powerdown!  I believe that both these forces must be tied together if we hope to have any reasonable peaceful mitigation in the days ahead.

Most of us can live without exuburant energy, but very few can live if we have eaten the last raspberry, goat, poodle, salmon, pigeon, rodent, and cockroach, etc on the planet.  Recall the recent MSNBC posting on SST warming and coral reef bleaching-- sounds like a oceanic species Dieoff to me.  More proof of suboptimal planning as we daily squeeze through the Dieoff bottleneck.  Are we going to wait until there are no more fish, crabs, and clams in the stores, or are we going to get ahead of the game?  C'mon People--times awasting.

So far, the bravest people on the planet, IMO, are the indigenous tribespeople throwing wooden spears at the more 'advanced tribes' in a futile effort at keeping them from raping their habitat of its resources.  They truly understand the necessity of LARGE habitats to allow adequate space for other species.  WE did too, at an earlier time, by setting aside land for national parks and forests.  But now, because of increased headcounts, pollution, exurban growth, and increasing mechanized forays into these lands for visits and resource grabs-- the total 'freespace' for other species is declining.

Powerdown alone with our presently massive headcount is like setting up a huge patchwork of scattered one acre national parks--insufficient space and resources for the vast interlocking 'web of life' to strongly rebound and support harvestable biosolar human living--it requires a contiguous geographic area and drainage basin of sufficient size for sustainability and defensibility from being overrun.  Ideally, it should include significant elevation variability so the myriad of species can shift according to the rising GH temperature, yet still retain optimal cross-specie interaction.  As mentioned before, the biosolar secession of the NE & NW parts of the US, and Alaska too, would be a great initial breakthrough: "A small Powerdown step for Mankind, a giant leap for the Ecosystem".  Never forget that the other species have to squeeze through the bottleneck with us too.

The Earthmarines will be dedicated to protecting the biosolars from being overrun AND protecting the other species in the habitat-- think Govt. treehuggers.  Please contrast this idea to the sad African system where the corrupt officials, police, and militias are the worst offenders and polluters against struggling biosolar tribespeople and natural habitats.

Economic collapse due to decreasing net energy and global warming has already setoff human migrations--consider the massive influx and rising concerns over illegal immigration in this country.  Google Zimbabwe, Haiti, Tanzania, and other third world countries suffering a brain-drain.  Unfortunately for the poor people, most of them cannot migrate very far: no cars & no wealth means mostly dying in place and being abused by the worst societal elements.  The sad first world response is indicative of the atrocious sentiment, "We see the rising floodwaters, secretly hoping the others drown".

Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Thxs for responding.  Consider all the past [before fossil fuels!]civilizational collapses: ameliorative social change was way too slow to effectively and peaceably mitigate ecosystem 'web of life' changes induced by destructive societal practices.  What is now simultaneously presented to us is a horrific COMBO of planetary ecosystem and a non-biosolar 'artificial & temporary detritus construct' collapse.  Do you detect a sufficient and ever-growing differential rate of positive societal change happening NOW to feel fully confident that we can peaceably evade the DOUBLE_WHAMMY?  May I suggest you study this link on eco-islandization:

http://buddycom.com/animal/envirimg/island/ecodecay.html

or this one called "DEAD. WRONG.":

http://dieoff.com/page6.htm

Does anyone still dispute that Pres. Carter's Sweater Speech misled the masses?  Does anyone EVER READ reports on increasingly healthy habitats and massive political change against infinite growth?  How much proactivity vs resistivity do you detect worldwide?  Who would draw the larger media coverage: (Brad & Angelina) vs. (Simmons, Kunstler, Campbell, both Bartletts, & Savinar)?  Who should be the media megastars?

Will a child accept a stuffed teddy or panda bear if no real live ones exist on the planet?  Think of the park rangers and wildlife scientists killed by poachers, who then go on to harvest the bushmeat.  More humans are born everyday than the sum total of our fellow primates-- is this a positive trend for the other species?  How many detect that the 200 year history of economic 'scientific' planning has brought Peace on Earth and full bellies for all?  Twenty generations of the 'Tragedy of the Commons' seems more likely, and the next twenty generations, due to our borrowing against the future, will only get 'Tragedy'.

I am doing my best to alert the unwashed masses: alerting friends and family, hundreds of emails and postings, handing out website cards to strangers, but eventually I will not be able to spend this time and money on this endeavor-- Law of Diminishing Returns goes for messengers too.  The Easter Island ecologists probably found it painfully difficult to argue with the last lumberjack because he was holding the axe.

Bob Shaw in Phx,Az  Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

Haggisbasher, I have been a dedicated participant in the democratic process all my life, including running for a local office, so spare me the pep rally!  I do not believe most federal Congressmen care at all what the majority of people think, because they can effectively control what enough of them think (through corporate money, propaganda, gerrymandered districts, and voter fraud, etc.) to stay in office regardless.  A few of them are so pathetic that they are vulnerable, and mine is one, so perhaps the next guy will be worth communicating with.  Writing your federal congressman will get you a form letter, and they will only total the ones that agree with their existing (purchased) positions.

It is far more worthwhile to work at a local level, or even state level (depending on your state).  This will not make the kind of large-scale infrastructure investments we need happen, but it may build grass roots support over time.