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Friday Open Thread
Posted by Super G on April 21, 2006 - 2:29pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: peak oil [list all tags]
As crude oil hits $75 a barrel...
[editor's note, by Yankee] Hey! Tomorrow's Earth Day! Do you have any plans to increase your own or others' awareness of the energy crisis? I hope to check out some of the events at Earth Day New York (especially the giant earth images).
Simmons: Imminent oil shortages possible
€5-a-litre petrol in the pipeline for motorists, warns expert
It was way back on August 23, 2005 that they made their $10,000 bet; Tierney swearing that crude would head down while Simmons warned that Twilight was near for the Desert. Whose your sooth sayer now Tierney? Inquiring non-economists want to know.
Tierney's probably not worried. Yet.
Who is in charge of new open threads?
(Not a comment to you, just near the top....190 comments is to many!!)
Those guys aren't smelling spring today, they're smelling toast.
Some survey data from MSNBC. Results below based on 77,416 responses.
21% respondents report it costs more that $50 to fill their tank.
76% have not changed driving habits due increased prices.
64% Of those who have changed habits now stay home more often.
31% will change habits when price reaches $3.25.
76% say they will not change driving habits. They have to drive.
I think that pretty much says it all. I have to drive too, because I'm required to have a personal vehicle for work (which they reimburse me at 45 cents/mile). I brought up gas prices with my manager this morning and he has no idea whether our company will adjust the reimbursement...all he said is, "they usually update it in summer." So in the meantime, we're all getting poorer.
I will not yet change my driving my habits until I move closer to work. I already combine trips to use less fuel. Hopefully, I'll live a litre away or less, and have the option of that evil Pace bus.
I would sooner move closer than use the bus as the alternative. (I have possible areas mapped out)
In a push come to shove, I'd rather use a motorcycle or God/Allah/Buddha Forbid, a bicycle, enabled by living closer to work than use that bus.
Compared to even pre-peak Europe, $3/gal is cheap. I'm getting a laugh, surely for now. For those peak-ignorant types: Get Over It! You ain't seen ANYTHING yet!
I will if the opportunity crops up, carpool, though this creates sub-optimal cases. (some people dawdle at the end of the day while I scramble to my car)
One thing's for sure. Peak Oil promises to be a ride of a lifetime, the economic equivalent to a C-130 with upholstered seats like a Pace Bus on a flight through Hurricane Katrina's eyewall! Buckle up! Just for fun, you won't see the evils of Pace buses at the <href>www.pacebus.com</href> website.
I do have errends, bank trip, etc but I can walk 'em, it will do me good.
Unlike most drivers, I'm aware of energy use as I weekly keep track of fuel consumption and all but calibrated the gas gauge onboard my car. That way, I know how much money to put down to ensure it tops off when I get my weekly load of gas. I took a day off and this morning, I loaded onboard 5.0? gallons of gas but drove 144.5 miles for the previous week. 28.9mpg. I live .6 of a gallon away, yet I have coworkers who live 4 gallons away. Guess who's the real fool? The bloke with the 4 gallon commuting mission!
Once I park my car on a Friday, I don't have to touch it until the Monday morning mission to work. That's the way it should be. And all walking-inaccessible shopping done enroute on an afternoon commute. Why waste gas? Given the copious energy use of cars, it could be thought as a road-only aircraft. If you had to pay for that jet fuel, would you waste it? Of course not!. Why more people don't seem to care about fuel use as they drive is hard to fathom, unless they are a Jeff Skilling. (or some airline pays for a pilot's fuel use as he "drives")
I don't know your commute's mission profile, but I know that gas prices if high enough will force you to change behaviour.
You may:
- take the bus
- carpool if possible
- use a motorcycle, scooter or even a bicycle
- LOSE YOUR JOB
If that's not enough reason to be aware of fuel consumption, I don't know what is. Yes, your car is your (road-only) aircraft.I'm pretty sincere yeah, but I suppose I'm lucky -- I work from home. I own a bicycle, but live in the burbs and need to use the car to get anything done. I'd max out about CAD$8 a litre which would have me spending probably about $400/month on gas, (right now its $50-100 with $1.00/liter) before moving to the city (Toronto) where public transit is pretty good.
If I lose my job, I'll find a new one, or do whatever I need to do. I'll find a way. I'll survive. And when my luck runs out ... life will catch up with me.
If the S is going to HTF (and I believe it will) then I just want it to hurry up and do so. Cascading systems failure.
Ain't that something? You guys are all stressing out about depression, nuclear war etc. etc. And MATT SIMMONS says we don't even need to worry about a recession!
Discuss.
There're also a bunch of conflicting (at least at face value) reports saying that a) people can't afford these prices and are pawning items off to fuel their tanks, and b) it hasn't changed demand levels one bit for the past week.
BTW, "PO Debunked" is one of the sites I check almost on a daily basis. Good job on it :)
We have lost most of our office assistants, have online payroll and benefits (fewer HR personnel), and office supplies are non-existent. My analytical team has gone from eight people three years ago down to three people this year and we are supporting more products and groups than three years ago.
I know this not unique to my company.
I quoted those lines in a previous thread.
And went on to explain why I think Simmons is an optimist...
So, the rich will effectively imprison themselves until a dieoff ensues to near-completion. It in their interests that a dieoff occurs as completely as possible. To foil that strategy, whether intentional or not, is to ensure there are people thriving without them so as they emerge, they can be taken out with said crossbows. If you are a cynic, this is a perfectly good reason to get the word out as a case of "if nothing else".
Already well-off people live in gated communities - prison camps. It's a gilded prison, but a prison all the same. As time goes by, they will want bunkers. THEN they will effectively imprison themselves. I wouldn't be surprised if Bush and Co. has a bunker system with Osama bin Laden as the housekeeper. (OK, a conspiracy theory) If more than some strategic-design minimum number of people survive, the bunker people will be held to account due to the intervening legends. They will end up toast. I wouldn't want to be 80 years old and emerge from an old coal mine only to have that red dot on my chest abd >thoomp!< that arrow makes it Game Over. Especially after 35 years underground. Yeecchh.
We might have found a possible upper range for a critical gas price. A postal worker bailing out despite a 1/2 gal commute could be an upper end. Vast demand destruction will occur WAY beforehand. People who work for the postal service make comparatively good wages, so a price like $10/gal could be about that critical price that screws over so many people that the economy sputters into a depression, as in "I can't come to work becuse the gas costs too much".
If that "expert" is right about $20/gal gas by 2010, we are in for one rough ride. A ride that'll make a Cessna in the middle of Katrina look smooth.
I want to ride my bicycle, I want to ride my biiiiike!
Honestly, the humble bike is the most effecient transpo of anything. Easy to do 50 miles a day, a person can ride all day at 10MPH which means in 10 hours they can do a "century" or 100 miles.
Look for bikes to get really big if this gets that bad.
As I've said to my local gas station guy, this isn't a gas crisis, because I'm old enough to remember a gas crisis. When I see bicycles all over, mopeds advertised on local and national TV, and kids (like us) growing up knowing how to siphon gas, then I'll call it a gas crisis.
Good thing I'm not a Canada goose. Give me a stomachful of greasy fries and I could pull a Steve Fossett - and still gain weight. As far as bicycle use, the main deterrent in my case is my own being easy to startle. Burning half a calorie is perfectly cool, and I'd like to do it. But that easy-startle deterrent is there. That'll take some SEVERE gas prices to overcome. More than enough to cause world economic catastrophe. That deterrent really sucks for me. The same anxiety problem exists if I attempt to swim, something I can't do.
Get an old bike and work with a master mechanic.
In regard to punctures, I've had only one during the last 5,000 miles of riding, because some of my tires have the kevlar inserts, and with the others I squirt goop into the inner tubes that self-seals around thorns, nails, slivers of glass, etc. Before I aggressively attacked the puncture problem (about thirty years ago) I might get four flats in a month--especially in the sping time, when the snow and ice melted to leave all sorts of sharp nasty things on road shoulders and bike trails.
A sturdy bike need not be expensive. As a college student I had an old Raleigh 3-speed that I rode rain or shine for many years, up and down steep hills in Berkeley--bought it used for $20 and sold it after four or five years for $15, and except for the usual tires and chain and brake pads, I don't recall replacing anything on the bike, except for a spoke or two. Especially if you live in England, I don't think you can do better than an old Raleigh, but there are other fine old English bikes too.
Now that I am old and wise, I am partial to fat tires and massive and heavy and extremely strong steel frames, and with fat tires at relatively low pressures you can go through mud, sand, gravel, slush, and over forest floors--pretty much anywhere a mountain bike can go, except you have to walk it up steep hills because of no exceptionally low gears.
The main problem with bikes these days is that they're being built/designed either for "weekend dawdlers" or high performance racers/mountain bikers. The former don't mind it being crap because they can always get another one and they're not doing much mileage anyway, the latter prefer lightweight over reliability.
(note sarcasm)
Gee, I can hardly wait to see what oil prices do when the first hurricane forms in the Atlantic with all the other geo-political events going on. Here is the list of 2006 names with some editorial freelancing:
Hurricane Alberto VO5 lather, rinse, and repeat-just getting started w/CAT 1 thru 5s
Hurricane Beryl of no oil
Hurricane Chris[t] $5.00/gal of gasoline ! Holy Crap!
Hurricane Debby Devastation
Hurricane Ernesto Yergin will still be ernestly saying $35/bbl
Hurricane Florence Nightingale: Cat 5 into Houston at 2am
Hurricane Gordon 's Gin-Gimme a drink cause I cannot get gas
Hurricane Helene ?
Hurricane Isaac Asimov--this baby's a sci-fi classic!
Hurricane Joyce a Rolls-Royce of a hurricane-high dollar damage all the way!
Hurricane Kirk Captain, Captain, she can't take anymore!
Hurricane Leslie Yes, less and less platforms lie above sea-level
Hurricane Michael All boats ashore, cause this is the biggie!
Hurricane Nadine No, the nadir of FEMA response to helping people
Hurricane Oscar This one is must see TV!
Hurricane Patty Right thru Miami!
Hurricane Rafael A true masterpiece of destruction!
Hurricane Sandy Beaches left in downtown Boston
Hurricane Tony ?
Hurricane Valerie ?
Hurricane William Tell-a big arrow straight thru Long Island
Maybe some other poster can think of something for Tony, Valerie,and Helene. My guess is a big hit in the GoM again is good for instant $5/bbl.
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?
Good point.
Murphy's Law predicts that the Hurricanes will hit at the worst possible moment and not until then. ;-(