Peak Oil Forum - a final comment

Until now I have tried to give you the fairly honest reporting of what the folks said at the Peak Oil Forum, without indulging too much in editorial comment. Since this is going up on a Friday, when our readership drops off, maybe I won't get drummed off the page until Monday, but I thought I would conclude my review of the Peak Oil and the Environment Forum with a few comments from an opinionated observer. They should not be taken as detracting from a meeting I found enlightening, and full of information and contacts.

The one thing that surprised me as much as anything over the course of the meeting is that I don't recall anyone saying "slow down." I only starting noting this after a short while, but (and I apologize but I can't find the comment with the graph that was posted by someone about a week ago on this) here is the savings

The faster you drive, the more fuel you use. For example, driving at 65 miles per hour (mph), rather than 55 mph, increases fuel consumption by 20 percent. Driving at 75 mph, rather than 65 mph, increases fuel consumption by another 25 percent.
Hey, reinstate the speed limits, it works - well it works if you want to save gas, perhaps not (cynic here) if you want to get elected.
Roger Bezdek pointed out that the Hirsch Report is based on a 2% depletion, a number we have noted earlier that Saudi Arabia now admits to. The year has seen significant data that this is probably too low. The number that Chris Skrebowski uses seems to be 5% and Schlumberger have been reported as thinking it might go to 8%.

Bill McKibben, Pat Murphy and those others who said that investing in technology is a waste of time, got me irritated, and less inclined to listen to what they were saying. As Governor Schweitzer said "if you showed up at the meeting, you were part of the problem!" (Because you used energy to get there). We have to find new ways of doing things, and new technologies. The organizers had found folk that are making a difference and put them in the program, there are lots of other things that need to be done, and aren't, at least at the level that will be needed. But burying your head in the sand is river talk (to be polite) and . . well never mind.

I don't know enough about Methanol - the fuel source that Ken Deffeyes brought up at the end of his talk, and so will go and read up some more about it. Somebody also suggested that the smart thing to drop the cost of ethanol, which I have said in the past was in part due to the $0.15 per gal chemical used to denature it, would be to use gasoline as then denaturing agent instead. Good idea, I think.

I didn't think that we had enough discussion about coal, though given that it was not until we heard the talks that we knew that Roger Bezdek was looking to 5 100,000 bd CTL plants per year, among other things, to get us back in balance, and that there would be so much debate about sequestration. You know what, methane has been sitting in the ground for millennia and more (that's natural gas) if we replace it with carbon dioxide what logical argument can you have to say it will pose a threat? To a degree I have the same sort of argument for those who worry about burying nuclear waste. Uranium comes out of the ground, even relatively close to the surface in somewhat porous ground in Wyoming it is not a big issue. Putting it into the basalt (a much less permeable rock) and deeper is rationally safer. But I understand that this is another issue where facts are not really as good a topic to debate as opinions. Ah, well!

I thought that Michael Klare's talk on the potential for wars, was, if anything, understating the problem, particularly since he did not say anything, until the questions, about the East China Sea. As Dave has posted here in the past, this is a very volatile situation and I was surprised that it and other parts of the East got as little attention as they did. As Prof G noted on Wednesday, there are already problems in India and Pakistan, to name but two. I know, too little time, so big a topic . . .

And that brings me to James Hansen. Okay, so I'm prejudiced because he doesn't think our concerns about the Gulf Stream have any merit (despite the signs that the Gulf is getting hotter, and Europe having had some serious cold this winter). So, having just read "State of Fear" I noted that Michael Crichton had also actually given accessible historic data. I don't know where to find the historic data for Europe, but I did check up on one place in about the middle of the US. And I looked up the historic temperature record. Here is what I found:

If you are curious, you might want to go to the site and check out the historic temperature record for someplace you might be interested in. Now, I have previously posted on glaciers retreating in Alaska, (I've seen where they are and were), but I guess, since around 1930 it was apparently hotter than now, I'm not quite as convinced as I was.
And if that doesn't make me the pariah of the week, let me just make a comment on David Pimental's presentation. I wrote that I had a rapped knuckle, because as jdeely pointed out when I used something like Pimental's numbers I was corrected.

We don't use 20 million barrels of gasoline a day, we use 20 million barrels of OIL. We consume 9,105,000 barrels of gasoline per day... or 382.4 million gallons
So, Ethanol is already providing more than twice the percentage that you calculated... it doesn't look like that 5% will be much of a problem.
and
"But the renewable fuels mandate coupled with the phase-out of MTBE and state fuel requirements is expected to produce a need for about 395,000 barrels of ethanol a day, or 6.1 billion gallons in 2006, according to the Department of Energy If we really do produce this much ethanol this year then ethanol production will be about 4.2% of gasoline producion on a gallon for gallon basis. 5% is starting to sound really easy!
He has more comments under the post covering Pimental's paper. And I have to agree with the sentiment that if someone whips through a paper full of statistics, and you check one or two and find them wrong, it leaves a bit of a question as to the validity of the rest. For example he quoted a percentage of energy going in for irrigation, but if I remember from one of the talks, there is only a percentage of the country, and even of some states, where irrigation is needed.

I did learn, re biofuels, the reason we don't use the more productive rapeseed in the US, relative to Europe, apparently it is too warm here. And I wished I had had more time to listen to Joseph Tainter (or that he had more time to talk).

In regard to the comments on the Canadian tar sands, and the decision as to whether they come here - it seems to me that if the Chinese have a contract for delivery, and a Canadian firm has a contract for delivery, then how can that be sent South ? But then I'm not a lawyer. As to whether it is the greatest evil under the sun, no I don't think it is - it is a resource like any other, that is messy to get out and prepare, but that will, in the short term, help us out when we need the resource. Hopefully they can find technology that will reduce the environmental impact (or were we not supposed to try and find any such ?) And in that regard, I don't believe that EROI numbers are immutable, and technological advances may well, as someone said, make those currently being waved around with passion, something quite different in a year or two.

Well this already too long, but, in regard to:

"O.K., Heading Out, time to come clean and admit it...you really have something of a crush on Megan Quinn, don't you...."
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He so does. It's totally obvious. =)
She, apparently gave the best end speech that some had heard, and functioned very effectively in being MC, and since I did not hear the speech, and missed her movie twice now, I thought a little extra recognition would be fair.
Did anyone discuss the merits of rapid depletion and a quick, life-changing crash versus a slow, painful devolution in which anything with carbon in it will be burned up to try to keep the system going?

Thanks for your coverage, by the way. I wish I could have been there, too.


Heading Out, first, thanks again for keeping us up to date on a conference that many of us would have found interesting but due to pressing work obligations or travel issues, could not be there for....
Now, to the light good natured fun, let me tackle this one...since I was the one that started the string...
"O.K., Heading Out, time to come clean and admit it...you really have something of a crush on Megan Quinn, don't you...."
(my little bit of ribbin' ya..., then a responder got in on it with me...
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 He so does. It's totally obvious. =)

and your closing remarks...
 She, apparently gave the best end speech that some had heard, and functioned very effectively in being MC, and since I did not hear the speech, and missed her movie twice now, I thought a little extra recognition would be fair.

I keep hearing that, and I assume us TOD folks will be given a chance to read her speech, and where to find it....and I do hope you took my very innocent remark as good natured teasing you on the subject, your admiration of her is obvious, and in that, it is shared, I have read as many of her words as I can easily find, and she comes across as clever, well informed, logical in her thinking, but avoids the dark trap of "woes me, nothing can be done", all around a very interesting and pioneering woman of intellectual greatness...(by the way, remember the days on the school yard when us guys teased each other, "Billy likes Suzy!", and you later found they were just teasing from envy....because they would have  enjoyed being in your place getting to speak to her..., guys, we never grow up....:-)

On a much more philosophical note....(important text ahead..)
Your remark...
<Bill McKibben, Pat Murphy and those others who said that investing in technology is a waste of time, got me irritated, and less inclined to listen to what they were saying. As Governor Schweitzer said "if you showed up at the meeting, you were part of the problem!" (Because you used energy to get there). We have to find new ways of doing things, and new technologies.>

This is SO MUCH at the center of the philosophical issue of energy depletion....and resource depletion/environmental degradation, that I have argued it with fellow "depletion/degradation" aware friends and thinkers many times:

There seems to be two ways in which "Peak Oil" or "Resource Depletion" are viewed:
(a)  "Thank Heaven, the filthy, consumptive, greedy rich and fat society is doomed, the collapse is finally here!  The Industrial age with it's dirty dangerous factories, mass produced cars and plastics and household goods, and jet set speeds are not humane, and they are an affront to nature and real humane sustainability.
The oil and gas is running out.  Get rid of IT...the luxury, the modernity, the wealth, and back to a simpler age, more in tune with nature, and the first that should go is THE CAR, the hated car, it is that evil machine that has done this to us, but it IS OVER. There will be no technical fix, and there SHOULD BE NO TECHNICAL FIX.  Trying to save this culture is DOOMED, and we are free of the capitalist, consumerist, CAR culture at last!
The whole culture, built around THE CAR is corrupt, it is a foul and a bad system that IS FINISHED."
(this seems to be very common here on TOD)

or,
(b) "We have a problem.  Resources used to maintain our current standard of living and current view of freedom, mobility and culture, and the environmental damage done by the current system are not sustainable, and we consume resources faster than they can be replaced, and damage environments faster than nature can repair them.
We must move now to try to maintain our culture by attempting to use our options, our resources and our imaginations to move our culture to a sustainable basis.  These will be very big changes, and major sacrifice will be needed, along with use of design, engineering and organizational skill to change our current system and modify it to reduce consumption, operate much cleaner, waste much less and reuse and recycle much more.  Used carefully, there are enough resources to retain our culture and our ideas of reasonable well being, mobility and security for the world's people, but only if we are very careful and very inventive in the path we take.  But we can rebalance our consumption, broaden our options, enhance real democracy and enhance our culture with a more civil community and artful lifestyle, and explore design, humane and people oriented science, and cultural organization not yet even dreamed of, IF we make the effort NOW. "

Notice the difference?

Option (a) does not see the situation as "Our culture has a problem" but instead sees it as "Our culture IS THE PROBLEM.
Peak Oil is just one of the greatest events to be seen as a tool to finish what is viewed as a corrupt and evil culture that should not be saved, and any attempt to do so simply extends a scourge (call it Industrialism, call it Western-ism, call it Capitalism, call it Modern Technical Society, it doesn't matter...) that must be removed.  It is the "modern consumer capitalist technical culture that has held mankind back from achieving "true culture", or "community values" or "spiritual values" or....nirvana?

Option (b) takes the view that Industrial Modernism and technology, for all it's faults (and it surely has many) is well worth saving.  It has lowered misery, enhanced choice, attempted to reach democratic values for as many as possible, and freed humans to enjoy quality, art, culture, communication and transportation, and provided a widely varied and interesting existence to the people it has touched.  It views technology as not only useful but as art form, and that the exploitation of resources was and in some way will always be a crucial and needed part of expanding mankind's achievement, meaning, and variety of life on Earth.
It is a culture that must change, yes, a culture that must improve it's abilities to be sustainable, and to much MUCH better husband it's resources if it wants to continue broadening mankind's choices, freedom and well being, but that it is a culture well worth saving, a culture that provides it's own unique brand of human community, art, quality, and yes, even embodies the spiritual quest to bring mankind closer to the Creator, as man joins in the creation process.  We have only now began to travel down the road to real, humane modernism.
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I beg you to notice that neither of the above options mention "specific" technologies or techniques.  No mention of solar, wind, nuclear, coal to liquids, gas to liquids, corn to fuel, or for that matter, no mention of return to horses and subsistence farming.
Take notice that neither of the above options have any outside sources, as far as where to get the technology, what technology is mathematically proven, what options are tested by the government.

This is because neither of the above options are "scientific".  We are not talking about "means to an end" but about "meaning" itself.

We are not talking about what is "doable" but instead about what is "desirable".  

In fact, we are looking at two aesthetic choices.  Both recognize the serious, perhaps catastrophic, effects of resource depletion.  Both recognize the serious, perhaps catastrophic issues of environmental degradation.  Both acknowledge the need for IMMEDIATE AND GREAT CHANGE.  Both admit to the need for sacrifice, perhaps great sacrifice.  

So how do they differ?  In the goals.  One sees a culture not worth saving, in which resource depletion and environmental degradation become almost "tools" to speed the death of what is viewed as an evil and diseased culture.

The other sees a great, perhaps the greatest, culture facing a crisis.
It feels and sees the art of the motorcar, the aircraft, the lit cities as one of the triumphs of human history.  It sees television, radio, the personal computer as the triumph of ages of sacrifice, leading to better living for the masses.  But it realizes that the consumption of resources to build and maintain this culture have been very high, and may not be sustainable at this level.  But the goal should be to try to salvage the art of the technical culture by using the tools of the technical culture....research, inventive use of materials, art, design, combinations of management, financial, and technical skills to improve our sustainability, to maintain a culture of prosperity, choice, inventiveness, and yes, mobility.

It is the debate above that determines the action we take:  Emotions become Thoughts.  Thoughts become words.  Words become actions.  And actions, in mass, become culture.

I once heard a historian say of the Fall of Rome, that the biggest single factor among all the factors that caused the event may have been "the lack of collective  will to save Rome."

So it may be for the "Modern" technical culture.

Go back to our two options.  Option (a) says essentially, "Modern technical culture cannot be saved, and even if we could save it, we should not."

Option (b) says, "Modern technical culture can be saved, partially by using the very tools that created modern technical culture, and if it can be saved, IT MUST BE SAVED.

Which of these two choices we side with will be moral and aesthetic decisions, not technical or "scientific" ones.  It is the GOAL that will construct the game.
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Now, I hope you see why I sign my work....

Heading Out, send the text above to Magen Quinn, I am always looking to score "brownie points"! ;-)

Roger Conner   known to you as ThatsItImout

Options (a) and (b) are both bogus.  Neither can keep up with an exponentially breeding  human population.  The voluntary population control movement of the 1960s failed.  (And think what a different world we would be living in now if people worldwide had answered the call of ZPG in 1968, and the population had stabilized at 3 million worldwide and 180 million US!)

So the real issue is how to control the human population:
Option (c) let nature take its course (famine, pestilence, nuclear war)
Option (d) forced sterilizations, genocides

Edit: 3 billion worldwide
Well said Micro. We're headed for a "nice" game of Last Man Standing and it ain't gonna be pretty.

And I wish I had the kind of money it takes to decamp for Kiwiland myself!

I agree, Micro,

Man, I've spent the last 30 years thinking that I really like industrial modernity -- well, at least modern medicine and cars and Interets and all that -- but that having 7 billion humans on the Earth fighting like cats and dogs over resources would just become a nightmare ... which it has.

I suppose the "optimistic" answer is to build thousands of Arcosantis where we can all live in little cells in the beehive, but this to me is not about what humanity and freedom and dignity are all about.

Since farmland devoted to fuel production globally will increase dramatically each year, I would assume that total acreage devoted to food production has peaked. Therefore I assume total food production globally has peaked or will peak very soon. I cannot foresee the global population increasing continually as total food supply decreases (I would think rather dramatically as the crops for fuel industry explodes).
Farmland, Food & Energy, and Jay Hanson

I'm certainly no expert on food production, but it is my understanding that while organic farming can be more profitable per acre than standard farming (less use of fossil fuels & chemicals), the yield per acre is lower.  Therefore, we will need more land, using organic farming, to provide the same amount of food that we do now.  This sets up the problem of land used for food versus fuel--both food producers and fuel producers will need more land.  Of course, a lot of small "Victory Gardens" will help quite a bit.

It seems to me that we are rapidly approaching a point where most people's primary focus will be on how to pay their food and energy bills.  I wonder if the energy riots we have seen on the Indian subcontinent are a sign of things to come worldwide.  

In an interview a couple of years ago, Jay Hanson (I checked the link, and it is no longer available), said that most people are getting too hung up on the technical aspects of post-Peak Oil.  He said the key problem is how do we control men when there is no economic growth?

I have wondered for some time about Jay's choice of his retreat, the Big Island of Hawaii.  I am beginning to wonder if he chose Hawaii because he thinks that the biggest threat we face results from food and energy riots, i.e., the Pacific Ocean is one heck of a big moat.   I wonder if the Big Island could technically be food self-sufficient?

He chose it because he loves it there.
I wonder if the Big Island could technically be food self-sufficient?

Not with its current population.  

One question that doen't seem to get addressed is the gross over consumption of food by the developed economies. Hence we assume that the amount of food demanded is the amount needed. It is well documented that the health of the UK population improved during the rationing in WW2. I am not suggesting anything as drastic but there is certainly room for redistribution and rationalisation in the current food chain. Shock horror - Big Macs Must Go ;-)
While the health of the UK population increased during the rationing period, that had more to do with a more equitable distribution of resources than with less food being consumed.  Pre-WWII many many of Britian's poor were unable to aquire reasonable amounts of healthy food.  Rationing was combined with the introduction of free school lunches for poor children, OJ rations for all young children, and milk and eggs for pregnant mothers.  I think that was what really impacted Britian's health.
I don't go out to eat often, but when I do I notice one thing.  At the Buffets, people waste a lot of food.

I cook as a hobby, and I grow food as a hobby, and I study food plants as a hobby.  It shocks me that even those that come from low food regions in a few years of the Plenty of the US, adopt the same food habits of the Rest of the Citizens, or more accurately the wasteful folks.

 We as Americans waste a lot of Food.  We have laws in some cities that state that once its cooked and not eaten by the customer, we have to throw it out.  We have "Grand Buffets" where the left over food could feed some families for WEEKS!!  It all goes to waste!

So yeah, as the end of our "Easy Eating" Lifestyle comes to and end we will see the end of the Buffets, or at least the end of them as we now know them to be.

Hey I am moving to a small town,, How many buffets are there, I bet not a single one.  Gee I wonder why??

It isn't just buffets. Fast food restaurants throw away enormous amounts of unsold food. They usually keep enough food sitting there to fill your order immediately (unless you order something unexpected) so they can call it fast food.  Whatever isn't bought in a fairly brief period, gets tossed.
I used to volunteer at a soup kitchen, and they received  boxes and boxes of donuts that weren't quite fresh enough to meet Dunkin's standards. I wonder how many donuts Dunkin and KK toss every day
I disagree.   Some numbers to consider (from http://co.hawaii.hi.us/bigislandag/default.htm):

  •   500 acres produces  7 million pounds of guava
  • 2,700 acres produces 36 million pounds of papaya
  • less than 400 acres produces over 1 million pounds of taro, a traditional food of Pacific Islanders

This all sounds very productive to me. With over 60,000 acres of agricultural land being recently released from sugar cane production, farming just this land would require supporting about 3 people per acre to be self-sufficient on the Big Island.  Statements from John Jeavons indicate that biointensive farming would support over 10 people per acre sustainably.
One of they ke advantages of Hawaii is the temperate climate.  They only use about half of the energy per capita that is used in Texas.
Westexas wrote:
"I'm certainly no expert on food production, but it is my understanding that while organic farming can be more profitable per acre than standard farming (less use of fossil fuels & chemicals), the yield per acre is lower."

I'm no expert either.  I mentioned a few days ago that I had the pleasure of hosting Joel Salatin last weekend.  He is a truely organic beef and poultry farmer in Virginia, not simply "organic" as a marketing ploy as the word has largely become.  
He convincingly explained to me his methods that are low input and high yield.  He improves his land each year and keeps a larger number of animals on his land than any of his neighbors.  The quality of life for his charges is very good as well--all free range, grass fed and "grass finished"--no feed lot time before slaughter.  The chickens follow the cattle sequentially on the same pastures, providing a more complex nutrition to the pasture grasses.  In his philosophy, the health of the pasture is what comes first and the health of the animals follows from that naturally.
So there is some hope for greater efficiency in organic methods--though it is definitely more labor intensive.
-Matt DC

"Free range" and "Organic" red meat will not save you from colon cancer. In this study, the lowest risk group of subjects got 0-30 g of red meat per day.

Meat Consumption and Risk of Colorectal Cancer
Ann Chao, PhD; Michael J. Thun, MD, MS; Cari J. Connell, MPH; Marjorie L. McCullough, ScD; Eric J. Jacobs, PhD; W. Dana Flanders, MD, ScD; Carmen Rodriguez, MD, MPH; Rashmi Sinha, PhD; Eugenia E. Calle, PhD
JAMA. 2005;293:172-182.
full paper is free but requires registration.
http://jama.ama-assn.org/cgi/content/full/293/2/172

The risks from very modest quantities of red meat can probably be lessened somewhat, but not completely, by a high fiber diet. From PMID 16452248: "In colonic exfoliated cells, the percentage staining positive for the NOC-specific DNA adduct, O(6)-carboxymethyl guanine (O(6)CMG) was significantly (P < 0.001) higher on the high red meat diet. In 13 volunteers, levels were intermediate on the high-fiber, high red meat diet."

It's probably not very healthy for the aquifer, either. Nitrates are usually at unaccpetable levels within several miles of animal farms.

It's not so great for other reasons as well. Land use is greater and irrigation needs are generally greater to much greater than for plant foods.

Locally grown organic legumes are a better bet.

See:
Asia Pac J Clin Nutr. 2004;13(2):217-20.    
Legumes: the most important dietary predictor of survival in older people of different ethnicities.
Darmadi-Blackberry I, Wahlqvist ML, Kouris-Blazos A, Steen B, Lukito W, Horie Y, Horie K.
http://www.healthyeatingclub.com/info/articles/diets-foods/Darmadi.pdf

It's probably not that legumes are all that. But, they have no heme iron, they are generally anticarcinogenic when cooked, they have lots of dietary fiber, and they are completely devoid of oxidized cholesterol.

Here is the problem I see with a dramatic increase in agricultural lands.  Current methods that involve high yields of crops require several things:

First lots of water - essentially irrigation to protect against drought, where the water is pumped from underground aquifers.

Secondly fertilizer - generally made from natural gas.  Essentially because monocultures tend to strip the nutrients from the soil (called by some mining the soil), so there is this constant need to replenish these nutrients.

Finally pesticides - generally also petrochemicals of one sort or another.

Of these, we have already talked a lot about limitations involving both oil and natural gas, so let me focus on water instead:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogallala_Aquifer

The Ogallala Aquifer, also known as the High Plains Aquifer, is a shallow water table aquifer located beneath the Great Plains in the United States. One of the world's largest aquifers, it lies under about 174,000 mi² (450,000 km²) in portions of the eight states of South Dakota, Nebraska, Wyoming, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. It was named in 1899 by N.H. Darton from its type locality near the town of Ogallala, Nebraska.

The regions overlying the Ogallala aquifer are some of the most productive regions for ranching livestock, and growing corn, wheat and soybeans in the United States (often called the "breadbasket of America"). The success of large-scale farming in areas which do not have adequate precipitation and do not always have perennial surface water for diversion, depends heavily on pumping groundwater for irrigation.

The aquifer was first tapped for irrigation in 1911. Large scale use for irrigation began in the 1930s and continued through the 1950s, due to the availability of electric power to rural farming communities and the development of cheap and efficient electric turbine pumps. Because the rate of extraction exceeds the rate of recharge, water level elevations are decreasing. At some places the water table was measured to drop more than five feet (1.5 m) per year at the time of maximum extraction. In extreme cases, the deepening of wells was required to reach the steadily falling water table; and it has even been drained (dewatered) in some places.

Water problems aren't just a problem for agriculture.  There was a comment here at TOD about a place in Oklahoma where oil drilling had been suspended - the local town no longer had sufficient quantities of water required to support the drilling.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/2/22/122330/042#2

Depletion of the Ogallala aquifer is one reason I'm sceptical that present ethanol policies are sustainable.  Parts of the aquifer in Oklahoma and Kansas are projected to be dewatered, as in dry, by 2020. A recent study of water supply for the Texas panhandle shows several counties without groundwater by 2050.  Water use allocation will be on a lot more people's minds long before that.  Ethanol costs will rise just due to the cost of water.
Porsena,

Thank you for bringing up the Peak Aquifer article.

The USA is surrounded on 3 sides by gazillions of gallons of water and yet we threaten to run dry. Needed is a Manhaten Project level desalinazation effort, not just for the sake of US citizens, but for citizens all around the world who are running short of fresh water. Its amazing that MSM has not picked up on any of the Chicken Little warning signs. It will be too late when the sky does fall.

Desalinization via reverse osmosis is very energy intensive. It costs 2-5x as much as aquifer withdrawal. The memberanes for ro are also very expensive. And what do you do with the waste product?
As much as I can be convinced that farmers will find ethanol crops to become a tempting investment to put on their fields, I also suspect that more of them will be mounting or at least leasing spots for wind-generators at the corners of those fields, and the numbers may well show where the best energy/cash returns will come from in the long-term.  I'm sure a mixed 'energy crop' will make an appealing hedge.  

You might see more electric vehicles getting used in agriculture, making a more direct use of that wind.. either that, or that farmers would commit a portion of their cropland for biofuel that would be grown to assist in their own energy needs.  If anybody can find a way to improve eroei, I'll bet a farmer can.. the original scientists.

Some combination of engines powered by crop waste and zinc-air batteries recharged by wind might make farmers independent of motor fuel.  What they'd need after that is some source of fixed nitrogen.  I took a look at making a small Haber-process reactor using medical oxygen-concentrator tech to produce nitrogen, electrolysis to make hydrogen, SCUBA compressor to get it to the necessary pressure, and off-the-shelf stuff for reaction vessels and whatnot.  It looks expensive.

There is an easier way to fix nitrogen in the soil.  Some plants do it for you.  Soybeans are a noted example.
Legumes
There is an easier way to fix nitrogen in the soil.  Some plants do it for you.

Actually its the symbotic bacteria 'in the roots' that fix the nitrogen.

If you could convince the bacteria to do this via genetic re-engineering w/o effecting other plant 'features'....

In a way, Nitrogen is less of a problem than Phosphorus and Potasium (the 'P' and 'K' in the basic N-P-K fertilizer analysis.
The other side of the coin is that P and K can get washed out or removed with products, but they aren't easily liberated to the atmosphere as nitrogen is.
As ethnaol comes in to production the price of oil will come down....
Wana bet, I'll take a thousand of that. As oil go's up Ethanol follows. CBOT for May currently $3.10/Gal.
PEAK FOOD

"I assume total food production globally has peaked or will peak very soon."

This is the most perceptive, and most alarming, observation I have read in some time. It condenses and encapsulates most of the biodiesel discussion we've been having, as well as many other threads.

Think about this: roughly half of the nitrogen in human biomass comes directly from the natural gas based fertilizers. As we hit peak gas, we probably hit peak food.

In addition, half of cropland use prior to the invention of the internal combustion engine went to feeding horses and oxen for primary power and transportation. The conversion of this cropland to direct human consumption helped feed the green revolution.

Now it looks like we'll be drifting back to having half our cropland go for transportation; but via biofuels and ethanol.

Thus, we should expect the decline after "peak food" to be quite steep. Very sobering.

Another downside is that 19th century cities had large crews sweeping up horse manure, to be transferred to farmers in surrounding farms, which produced food for the cities. There don't appear to be such manure production possibilities from vehicular transportation.

 

Jim - I happen to agree. Where did you get that stat about nitrogen in human biomass? That doesnt quite make sense - how long have they been using nat gas to make fertilizer? what about people that were born and grew up before this? their nitrogen came from existing soil? perhaps you mean the 'marginal nitrogen in human biomass' comes from NG....
I believe the nitrogen in your bodily proteins are replaced with some frequency, which is why you need a constant supply in your diet, and why you constantly excrete it in your urine.

The figure that sticks in my head is 40% of total nitrogen comes from Nat.  Gas; it was in some science mag some time back.

jim

To make it available to plants, the nitrogen in commercial fertilizers is in the form of ammonia, for which the nitrogen is pulled from the air and the hydrogen usually comes from natural gas.  Fertilizers made from sewage sludge (I know of at least a couple) would be the most obvious exception.