The Oil Drum | When the Hurricanes Come

When the Hurricanes Come

Posted by Stuart Staniford on June 10, 2006 - 1:36pm

Now that the hurricane season had started, I wanted to know if there's much chance of one in June. Not really, it turns out:

Average number of storm tracks (any category) on a given day in each month over the period 1851-2005. Source: NOAA NHC.

Update [2006-6-10 13:36:2 by Stuart Staniford]: Well, what do you know - here's Tropical Depression One:

Update [2006-6-11 18:12:55 by Stuart Staniford]: Now Tropical Storm Alberto.

Projected three day track of tropical depression ONE. Source: NOAA NHC.

Update [2006-6-12 12:48:38 by Stuart Staniford]: "ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

The graph was made by parsing the HURDAT data file of past tracks made available by the National Hurricane Center. I'll probably do more mining on this data in the future, but for now the graph above just shows the average number of storm tracks present in the Atlantic on a given day, by month. (This includes all the wimpy storms as well as the real hurricanes, just to get a sense of when things can happen).

Checking in with SSTs, the big temperature anomaly in the Gulf a month or two ago seems to have mostly dissipated:

SSTs in the tropical Atlantic, together with anomaly from average. Source: NOAA.

However, it's still warm all across the tropical Atlantic.

Finally, I can't resist reposting this graph I put in a comment on HO's thread:

Oil and NG production in the Gulf of Mexico, together with hurricanes and tropical storms in the region. Source: EIA.

When the Hurricanes Come

PDF version

31 comments

fleam on June 9, 2006 - 1:12am Permalink | Comments top

But remember, up close, statistics get lumpy. Maybe there will be one in June, someone get the popcorn ready!

Prodigal Son on June 9, 2006 - 9:38am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

CNN's hurrican coverage is like watching a car crash...you just can't NOT look...

Plus, it's funny to see Anderson Cooper getting blown to hell and gone.

totoneila on June 9, 2006 - 1:36am Permalink | Comments top

Hello TODers,

Uhh....Accuweather.com says that a tropical storm just might form in the the next few days:

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/regions.asp?partner=accuweather&site=ATL

Brief excerpt:
------------
Today's Discussion
Low pressure in the Northwest Caribbean is Starting to Organize
Posted: 8-JUN-2006 2:57pm EDT

By Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski

A broad area of low pressure that we have been watching and speculating on since Monday is showing some signs of organization. Ship reports and buoys in this area are showing pressure falls. At one point a ship was reporting a pressure down to 1005 millibars just off the coast of Belize.
------------
Bob Shaw in Phx,AZ Are Humans Smarter than Yeast?

davet on June 9, 2006 - 9:39am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

You can see it here.

The Unisys site is a good one for weather weenies. Only the coverage outside the US proper (eg wind shear over Caribbean) and SST coverage are weak.

Re: hurricanes in June. That's one reason last year was so unusual.

xironman on June 9, 2006 - 9:47am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

I always like the NOAA satellite site, they have Storm Foater 1 on the area in question.

gettingwarm on June 12, 2006 - 12:19pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

June 12 --
Winds up to 70 MPH. Going to be a hurricane. Warnings up for west coast.

The GOM must have plenty of energy for this to blow up this early in the season.

Cherenkov on June 9, 2006 - 1:57am Permalink | Comments top

Mexican Deepwater Discovery Discredited

In Item 695 (April Newsletter) covering world discovery rates we referred to the deepwater well Noxal-1 off Mexico expressing some doubt that the reserves of 10 Gb reported by the press on the basis of government releases were valid. We are now informed by an engineer with detailed knowledge of the project that in fact the well failed to make a significant discovery. It is possible that the 10 Gb estimate mentioned by government officials referred to the expected reserves of the entire deepwater area of Mexico, which would not be unreasonable, but was mistakenly attributed to this particular borehole.

----ASPO

Luis de Sousa on June 9, 2006 - 2:41am Permalink | Comments top

Thanks for that last graph, besides the Hurricunes there seems to be already a downward trend. Very explicit in Gas, but also visible for Oil.

Chris Vernon on June 9, 2006 - 3:57am Permalink | Comments top

That NOAA anomalies map shows the western GoM slightly cooler than normal yet this table: http://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/wgof.html

Shows measurements a touch higher than the monthly norms.

dipchip on June 9, 2006 - 9:55am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

These are beach water temp's at shallow depth.

Stoneleigh on June 9, 2006 - 7:28am Permalink | Comments top

The Stanley Cup final is being played between the Oilers (Edmonton) and the Hurricanes (Carolina) and so far the Hurricanes are winning. I hope it's not an omen ;)

smekhovo on June 9, 2006 - 8:30am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Soon there may be protests that it's insensitive to name sports teams "Hurricanes" ...

Starship Trooper on June 9, 2006 - 1:48pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

We named them the Hurricanes after Hurricane Fran didn't read the "instruction manual" and bore down on the center of NC as Cat 1 hurricane. People like the Scorpions lyrics "Here I am, rocked you like a hurricane" as a theme for the team.

Redneck Kockey on Tobacco Road.

There are trees still down in my yard at the edge of my property from the 90 mph gusts and the constant hurricane force winds that made my attic hum like an organ pipe.

Arch Stanton on June 9, 2006 - 9:19pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

same here and i like your nic too

Nagorak on June 11, 2006 - 4:41pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Well...soon there may be protests that it's insensitive to name teams the "Oilers", if oil really does get expensive. ;)

Leanan on June 9, 2006 - 9:07am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

ROFL! I never thought of that.

Hurricanes in June...please, no. It's too damned early.

ET on June 9, 2006 - 1:09pm Permalink | Comments top

The GOM high temp anomoly is lower but the anomoly just East of the Caribbean is higher. This is the 'breeding ground' for hurricanes and probably the more significant anomoly at this point.

porsena on June 9, 2006 - 3:45pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Right, but it's only one to 1.5 degrees. At this time last year there was a pocket 1.5 - 2 degrees warmer in about the same place.

tom deplume on June 9, 2006 - 1:12pm Permalink | Comments top

Things look really hot around the Lesser Antillies and Cuba.

nulinegvgv on June 9, 2006 - 2:22pm Permalink | Comments top

Check these guys out.

http://hurricanehoopla.com/

AlanfromBigEasy on June 9, 2006 - 6:04pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Local news in New Orleans (which are really quite good) is calling attention to first "tropical disturbance" of teh season. No local risk, but the first one "ro look out for".

Dragonfly41 on June 9, 2006 - 9:36pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

OK...that's just frickin' sick!!

fallout on June 10, 2006 - 12:27pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

The first Atlantic tropical depression has formed, and is expected to be a tropical storm by tomorrow:
www.dltk-kids.com/type/felt_board.htm

fallout on June 10, 2006 - 12:28pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

Dammit, wrong link. Here it is:
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/?from=wxcenter_news

AlanfromBigEasy on June 10, 2006 - 1:42pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

I like the path ! It cools the water along many of the possibly paths towards New Orleans. Probably too weak to get that much energy out, but some ! :-)

xironman on June 10, 2006 - 2:04pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

You can definately see it getting going on the visible, of course after nightfall it is back to the IR.

handforged on June 11, 2006 - 11:37am Permalink | Parent | Comments top

And my dad, who lives in florida, was just repeating some tripe about how the westernly winds off south america were going to push any storms out into the atlantic and that they wouldn't hit land anywhere south of virginia - oops. i keep telling him to stop watching Faux News...

dulanc on June 11, 2006 - 3:09pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

why is it sick? no more so than the "if it bleeds it leads" mass media! At least these guys come right out and tell you where they are coming from and how the site should be interpreted.

I filled out my brackets yesterday!

Dragonfly41 on June 11, 2006 - 5:42pm Permalink | Parent | Comments top

OK...I didn't read the links at the site:

http://hurricanehoopla.com/why.htm

Why Are We Doing This?

Why are we doing this? Because for too long Main Stream Media has enjoyed a monopoly on the inflated excitement surrounding our annual hurricane season. Why should they get to have all the fun? We want to help whip Americans into a feverish frenzy concerning the coming storms. We'd like to help with up to the nanosecond
coverage of the slightest change in the direction or intensity of approaching tempests. We wish to stir up as much anxiety as the American public can handle with headlines that strike fear into the hearts of those who can't bear to look away!!!

Then, before the last drops of rain have fallen, we'll quickly lose interest and move on to the next disastrous, newsworthy event. Like the Drive-by Media we won't bother to adequately discuss the connections between weather, our energy supply and the further implications to our economy. We just want to help put more silly weatherpeople in hazardous locations where a stationary camera would work just fine.

No, wait... maybe we could use an amusing and irreverent stick to poke fun at our national obsession with disaster. We could also use this voice to educate Americans about how weather and energy affect their everyday lives in ways they probably couldn't imagine. Perhaps we could use this tongue-in-cheek form of Weather Sport to not only get some attention `round the office water cooler but also as a tool to help us as a nation better understand the natural forces to whom we are beholden. Perhaps we could make fun of those that scream about the storms and try and to do a little good while we're at it. Yeah, that's it. That's why we're doing this.

Check back as our educational resources sprout and grow.

That puts things in a very different perspective. It's basically poking fun at our national past time of disaster obsession. It also pokes fun at FEMA:

Please come back soon! This site is rebuilding due to the devastating effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita. We'll add plenty more bells and whistles as soon as we get our fema check.

Brother Kornhoer on June 11, 2006 - 12:50pm Permalink | Comments top

Now tropical storm Alberto.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tlh/tropical/index.html

Halfin on June 11, 2006 - 9:31pm Permalink | Comments top

The season-earliest major hurricane on record was Able, which became a category 3 off the coast of North Carolina on May 21, 1951. June hurricanes include Audrey in 1951 (killed over 500 people), Alma in 1966, and an unnamed hurricane in 1945. Links for these:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1945/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1951/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1957/index.html
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1966/index.html