DrumBeat: December 28, 2006

IEA Studying Natural Gas Security Measures

The International Energy Agency is studying ways to bolster the security of global natural gas supply, including the setting up of national strategic reserves by member-states of the IEA, said the newly elected head of the OECD energy watchdog.

BP joins renewable power campaign group

BP is to throw its weight behind the renewable power industry by joining its main campaigning body. Its decision to join the BWEA, formerly the British Wind Energy Association, early in the new year is a seen by the alternative energy sector as important because BP always had close links with government.


Ex-Interior Secretary Norton to join Shell as counsel

HOUSTON -- Royal Dutch Shell PLC Wednesday said it hired Gale Norton to serve as a counsel for the oil giant.

The move comes amid rising scrutiny on Capitol Hill of Norton's former agency's dealings with the oil industry.


Gazprom says will compensate for possible gas tapping by Belarus

"Not everything depends on us [in the gas dispute] with Belarus this year, nor did it last year with Ukraine, but we will spare no effort to make up for the possible unsanctioned tapping of gas [in transit]," Alexander Medvedev said.

But Medvedev said compensating European consumers in full was impossible for a prolonged period given Russia's growing domestic gas demand.


Belarus gas row 'may hurt Europe'

Russian energy giant Gazprom has warned that its gas price dispute with Belarus may affect consumers across Europe.

Gazprom has threatened to cut off gas supplies to Belarus unless it accepts an increase in prices from 1 January.

Belarus responded that if supplies were cut, it would deny Gazprom access to its pipelines, in a move that could hurt supplies elsewhere in Europe.


Pakistan: Gas supply cut causes closure of four power plants

KARACHI: Four power plants have been closed in the country due to scarce supply of natural gas, federal water and power minister told a press conference in Karachi.


Pakistan: Hydro, wind, solar energy power generation units to be set up soon

ISLAMABAD: In its efforts to harness power from renewable resources, the government in collaboration with private sector will set up electricity generation units of up to 50-megawatt capacity utilizing hydro, wind and solar energy resources.


India: Privatisation central to coal mining policy

The prime reason for sluggish performance of the sector has been strong government control over coal production. After having a free run, the sector was nationalised in 1973 with the enactment of the Coal Mines (nationalisation) Act. The aim then was to bring coal, an essential commodity, under a central supervision so that consuming industries like power, cement, steel companies could be provided their raw material at reasonable prices. However, this very act is coming in the way to take the resource-rich country out from its deficit status.


Bulgaria Fumes as EU Demands Nuke Reactor Shutdowns

KOZLODUY, Bulgaria - At this sprawling nuclear plant in northern Bulgaria, Kiril Nikolov feels he is about to unwillingly betray his nation.

As part of the Balkan state's treaty to join the European Union, he must shut down two of the plant's four functioning reactors on Dec. 31, the day before entry.


Nigeria: Afenifere Wants End to Fuel Scarcity

The Pan-Yoruba socio-political group, Afenifere, has called for an immediate end to the current fuel shortage in the country. In a statement, the national secretary of the group, Mr. Yinka Odumakin, expressed regret that the "interest of the sixth largest oil producer in the world are consistently being subjected to severe hardship as a result of mismanagement of the oil sector by the ruling elite."


Energy insecurity

In recent years, a parade of business and military leaders has tried to rally support for a more responsible national energy policy. Perhaps the Bush administration, with a nudge from a new Congress chosen by voters last month, will finally take notice in 2007.


Fuel diversity is the key for our state's future

Last spring, parts of Texas were left in the dark and without power for up to five hours when record temperatures hit the state, leading to a series of rolling blackouts to prevent a total statewide blackout.

Months later, when temperatures soared in the peak of summer, Texas exceeded previous peak demands by the equivalent of two to three large power plants.

Unfortunately, our expected population growth could make these situations commonplace.


Anadarko Seeks Scarce Rigs

Energy company Anadarko Petroleum Corp. has something harder to find than oil -- the floating rigs that explorers need for drilling.

A boom in drilling deep-water oil and natural-gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico and off the coasts of Brazil and West Africa has driven demand for the specialized rigs needed to work in depths as much as two miles. Deep-water rigs are in short supply, and companies are scrambling to get their hands on them, which could pay off for Anadarko.


Six bodies found after helicopter goes down in UK

LONDON - Rescue workers recovered six bodies after a helicopter carrying gas rig workers went down off the northwest English coast on Wednesday, police said.


John Michael Greer: Resolutions for a Post-Peak New Year

As 2007 approaches, worldwide conventional oil production remains noticeably below its 2005 peak, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and elsewhere promises at least its share of oil crises and economic shocks in the months and years to come.

Thus a set of New Year’s resolutions for a world on the brink of the deindustrial age seems timely just now.


Australia's drought natural, researcher says

CANBERRA - Australia's crippling drought, which some lawmakers have called the worst for 1,000 years, is a natural occurrence and has no link to global warming, the country's top science organization said on Thursday.


Divers to Plug Oil Leak in Gulf

Divers today were expected to plug a ruptured pipeline, about 30 miles southeast of Galveston, that had spilled about 42,000 gallons of light crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday, the U.S. Coast Guard said.


Want alternative energy? Try pond scum

But while corn, soybeans, canola and other common food crops have drawn the greatest public interest in biomass as a source of fuel, those commodities have been championed by a nexus of growers, processors, brokers and powerful lobbying groups looking to boost the value of existing crops by developing alternative uses for excess capacity and waste byproducts. Algae has few such advocates, and market demand has yet to materialize.


Coal fueling energy debate

Even as some states go on a building binge of coal-fired power plants, Washington is considering hefty restrictions that would do the opposite, essentially allowing just one new coal plant to be built. It's part of an emerging schism over coal as a future source of energy, pitting those who see it as reliable and cheap against those who consider it the dirtiest way to make electricity.


Near-Zero Emissions Power Production Projects

The Department of Energy announced the selection of five projects totaling nearly $12 million targeting cost-effective technologies to improve the performance and economics of near-zero emission, coal-based power generation systems.


An Alcoholic Energy Solution

According to the Peak Oil theorists, we are rapidly approaching the halfway point of world oil consumption. Since the second half of the world's oil supply is harder to get to than the first half, we can expect production to taper off long before the oil runs out. If the Peak Oil folks are right, the tapering off could begin any day now.

And this is where things get silly. Many in the Peak Oil community are saying that the drop in oil production will cause civilization to collapse, that we not only won't be able to drive, but we won't have plastics, medicines, or even coal (since oil burning machines are used to mine coal).


Ethics of Biofuels

It seems like you can’t go anywhere without someone telling you that in ten years we’re all going to be driving ethanol or biodiesel cars. Biofuels are hot. People who a year ago had never heard of switchgrass keep assuring me that it will be fueling my car practically next week. No need to change anything significant about our lives, they say – just raise fuel efficiency standards a little bit and alchemically turn the corn into gold er… oil, and off we go, back to business as usual.


Ed Begley Jr.'s 10 Tips for Going Green


The Footprint of a Cheeseburger

I wondered a couple of days ago what the carbon footprint of a hamburger might be. It's the kind of question we'll be forced to ask more often as we pay greater attention to our individual greenhouse gas emissions. Burgers are common food items for many people; it's said that the average American eats three burgers per week, or about 150 burgers per year. What's the global warming impact of all that? I don't just mean cooking the burger; I mean the gamut of energy costs associated with a hamburger -- including growing the feed for the cattle for beef and cheese, growing the produce, storing and transporting the components, as well as cooking.


Report claims high oil prices threaten UK food security

Dwindling oil stocks and EU trade and energy policies threaten food price hikes and could cause food shortages in the UK, according to a new report by Green Party Euro-MP Caroline Lucas.

...The report warns that we must change energy, trade and agriculture policies at an EU level if we are to avoid a food crisis precipitated by 'Peak Oil' – the point at which half of global oil production has been consumed, and beyond which extraction goes into irreversible decline, and prices rise accordingly.


U.S. Embassy Is Warning Beijing on Iran Gas Deal

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration and Congress are warning that a proposed $16 billion deal between a Chinese company and Iran could trigger economic penalties under an American law aimed at starving Iran of funding for terrorism and nuclear weapons.


The gathering Gulf storm

One doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that the renewed US campaign about the Iran nuclear issue camouflages a struggle for the domination of the Gulf and the Middle East - a region that set the tempo of the Cold War in the last century and will significantly determine the contours of the world order struggling to be born.


Energy price wars ahead in 2007

Britain's big six energy suppliers are poised to launch a price war in the coming weeks that should send household bills tumbling by the spring.

British Gas has signalled it will cut prices 'significantly' after the winter, with customer losses running at 20,000 a week - or one million over the past 12 months, its worst ever year for customer defections.


China, sure of power supply, freeing coal prices

BEIJING - China will allow coal producers and consumers to set their own prices without state interference next year, as Beijing anticipates excess supplies and more than enough power capacity, government documents showed.

Analysts say the shift reflects Beijing's growing confidence in energy and resource price reforms that will bring rates into line with higher global markets in an effort to encourage conservation and promote "green growth" for its booming economy.


Bright idea makes a big comeback: Conservation

Nearly all businesses share an all-consuming mission: sell, sell, sell. McDonald's wants to peddle more hamburgers. Airlines strive to fill every seat. Phone companies want you to make more calls.

But power companies these days are increasingly being told by regulators to pump hundreds of millions of dollars into selling less electricity.

It's official- the world now has two reserve currencies, not one:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/18338034-95ec-11db-9976-0000779e2340.html

Brian,

Though this is yet another nail in the US financial coffin, not so fast.

The term "reserve currency" is completely detached from banknotes, so in that regard the FT article has little impact. Americans probably need less paper, because they use more plastic; total "flow" is still much higher in the States.

In the 1990's there was a report that said only 3% of all "money" in the UK was banknotes, the rest was "virtual". If the percentage would be the same now in the EU and US, the $800 billion in banknotes in both regions would represent some $25 trillion in total available "money". The mortgage- and other-credit craze in the US since 2000 would make us fear that it's much more than that, though.

A few days ago, the New York Times ran an editorial by Ben Stein, who parrots Bernanke's statements about a "global savings glut". The idea would be that the Japanese and Chinese save so much, it allows them to buy all those US securities, bills and bonds.

Prof. John Succo at Minyanville refutes that idea and describes what he thinks really goes on.

The Federal Reserve creates credit through its open market operations like REPOS and coupon passes. If the Fed wants to inject liquidity (credit) into the system, they simply call up large broker dealers and buy some of their bonds with credit they create out of thin air (this expands their balance sheet). The dealer then passes this credit on to “the market” by making loans to mortgage companies or margin accounts or whatever. Because each layer of lender is only required to keep marginal capital on hand, a $1 billion REPO done by the Fed eventually creates as much as $100 billion in new credit to the consumer.

That credit creates the liquidity for additional consumption in the U.S., but these days we are buying our stuff from China (other countries too but we will just say China to make it easy). When a Chinese company receives dollars in trade, this normally would drive up U.S. interest rates: the company goes to the central bank of China to exchange Yuan for dollars; the central bank of China would normally sell those dollars into the currency market for Yuan thus driving up U.S. interest rates. But in our world of today these dollars are being sterilized: the central bank of China prints the Yuan to give to the company and takes the dollars and buys U.S. securities

Prof. Succo doesn't say it in so many words, but the Chinese do something similar to what the Fed does. He says they print yuan, but of course they have figured out fractional banking as well.
In theory (just to be careful), the original $1 billion Fed REPO sends $100 billion to China, where it's used for two purposes:

  1. A Central Bank purchase of $100 billion worth of US securities, which is collateral for:
    (note: the Chinese are not yet as nuts as the Americans)
  2. Trillions in money available to the domestic market

We don't just use our homes as ATM machines, we use China for the same purpose. If I spend $100 for every dollar I earn (or print), by borrowing ever more, how nice will my creditors be to me down the line if I can't pay them back?
I can tell you: they'll take my TV, my car, my house, my wife, everything, Now I can think I have the biggest muscles, and the biggest guns, but I can never kill them all, and that means I'll have to pay someday.

What's worse for the US in the short term is that the creditors will start applying pressure on the loans, the Euro is much better for them, they want to cash in their US securities and move them. Or charge more interest. Total US debt is around $40 trillion, not counting Medicare and Social Security. That means interest payments (not principal) of around $3 trillion per annum, for an economy with a $12 trillion GDP. Time to move to Albania?

These two caught my eye:

Drought predicted to break soon

THE end of the drought is in sight, with climate experts detecting a weakening in the El Nino effect.
The likelihood of more normal rainfall patterns comes as the latest climate estimates suggest Australia has experienced more typical temperatures in the past 12 months.
This year is likely to rate 10th on the list of the nation's hottest years, while last year was the hottest on record.

Climate change experts, including British researcher David Viner, have been predicting this year is likely to be about the fifth-warmest worldwide.

On the drought, National Climate Centre head Michael Coughlan said there were some signs the El Nino had peaked, increasing expectations that national rainfall would shift back towards normal.

It would probably take until March for the trend to become fully known.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20984990-30417,00.htm...

Big dry's natural, not due to climate change

THE drought gripping southeast Australia is due to natural variations in climate rather than the greenhouse effect.
The finding, based on CSIRO research, undermines claims - made by South Australian Premier Mike Rann at a water summit in Canberra last month - that Australia is in the grip of a one-in-1000-years drought.
"It is very, very highly likely that what we are seeing at the moment is natural climatic variability," researcher Barrie Hunt has told The Australian, saying the CSIRO's model of 10,000 years of natural climate variability put the current drought into perspective.

"When people talk about it as a 1000-year drought, they haven't got the information. They don't understand that according to natural variability we could get another one in 50 years or it might be another 800 years, and there's no way of predicting it."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20980586-30417,00.htm...

The Australian drought is not yet over, so it is quite premature to talk of when the next one might come.

When will this one end is the relevant question.

2007 ?

2010 ?

2038 ?

All seem possible IMHO.

Alan

Can you say denial? Sure. I thought you could.

I have been saying for a while Aus drought is not a climate change event. NZ same air mass same latitude same weather systems had a record rainfall this year. If the upper atmosperic waves had setup differently OZ would have had a high rainfall.

No question Dumping tonnes of CO2 into the air is a bad idea and it will have some realy bad consequences. But i think it is to early to lable Australia's drought a climate change event. The 1890's 1900's had a equally bad drought clearly not related to climate change.

The 1890's 1900's had a equally bad drought clearly not related to climate change.

True. Read "Late Victorian Holocausts" to see the devastating effects of drought in India and China in the late 1800's.

ongoing shift of the gravity center in world economics

Almaty, Dec 28, 2006 (BBC Monitoring via COMTEX) -- Iranian Ambassador to Kazakhstan Ramin Mehmanparast has said that in the next three to four years, trade between the two countries will increase to 5bn dollars.

"Leaders of the two countries, Kazakhstan and Iran, have agreed to increase goods turnover to 5bn dollars in the next three to four years," the ambassador said at a news conference in Almaty today. "At a meeting of the intergovernmental commission in mid-December, an agreement was reached to increase the volume of trade and economic relations to 2.5bn dollars in 2007," he said. At the same time, he noted that trade between the two countries had amounted to 900m dollars in 2005 and about 1.5bn dollars in 2006. The ambassador believes that in 2007, priority areas of mutual economic relations will be cooperation in the energy and petrochemical sectors, as well as the transportation of Kazakh oil via Iran. "In particular, the joint construction of a petrochemical plant will start in Iran. A similar plant will be built in Kazakhstan," he said. He also said that flights between the countries would be resumed in three months' time. "An Almaty-Tehran flight will be opened in three months' time. We are planning to open an Iranian consulate in Aktau (administrative centre of Kazakhstan's western Mangistau Region - Interfax-Kazakhstan), and a Kazakh consulate will open in the Iranian town of Gorgan. A flight between these two towns will also be initiated," the ambassador said.

Source: Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency, Almaty, in Russian 0953 gmt 28 Dec 06

Post Peak Drill

On Tuesday afternoon, nearly everyone in Humboldt County, California lost internet, cellular and long distance service due to a severed fiber optic cable (Why both DSL and Cable modems went out is beyond my cyber expertise). Around 2am a windstorm knocked out power for 24 hours. It ended up being a day of candles, Aladdin oil lamps, only gravity fed water from the storage tank and cooking my son’s birthday dinner on the wood stove. Just to add to the mix, a large tree went down on the road to town, requiring a 30 minute detour. Today all is back to normal (except a large number of dirty dishes that I decided to wait for some light to wash.) I always find these outages useful as drills. Last year’s extended outage made me realize an essential tool was missing – a non-electric coffee grinder! As the saying goes, “Death before dishonor, but nothing before coffee.”

Now, I have a lot of TOD posts to catch up on.

Pre-Peak Drill in the South Bay too.

Santa-Anna scale winds also knocked power out down here in the South Bay (San Jose, California). It wasn't a true practice drill for Peak Oil because we were able to retreat to the car and turn on the engine for heat, turn on the radio for entertainment. There was also the warm fuzzy comfort of knowing this will be over, at worst, in a day because the power company promised repair crews were on the way to reconnect the severed power lines.

In a real Post-Peak situation, there will be no gasoline-filled car to retreat to. There will be no promise of a better day tomorrow.

We here recently found an exquisite antique hand coffee grinder on ebay UK for not much money. Check out the nice grinders they have in Europe.

klee said:
"Humboldt County, California lost internet, cellular and long distance service due to a severed fiber optic cable
(Why both DSL and Cable modems went out is beyond my cyber expertise)"

That fibre optic cable uses a technology called Sonet. Sonet links can be configured to offer multiple OCX, DS3 and sub-rate interfaces to carry both voice and data.

Most DSL systems (in Verizons footprint) aggregate net traffic and send it over an ATM connection carried by a Sonet link.

Obviously, the cable modem provider used the same fiber/Sonet link for all of its aggregated net traffic. As did the cellular and long distance providers.

Lobby the owner of the fiber optic connection (usually the phone company) to provide a survivable BLSR Sonet ring.

Thanks for the info Sandor. I will pass it on.

A post peak Drill. What a great idea.

Why not turn off your gas and elec for a day. Take note of all the problems you have. See what you need to change.

Finding out you need a hand powered coffee grinder is amusing.
Discovering your well pump won't work could be life saving.

In anycase it will definetly help you pinpoint the areas you need to prepare not just for post peak, but hurricanes, blackouts, earthquakes etc.

I think everyone should try this.

24 hrs Man do I wish... we were out for 6 days after the last wind storm...

From the article about China:

Demand for next year is likely to rise to 2.5 billion tonnes next year, Xinhua reported earlier on Thursday, without giving a forecast for production next year. Output in 2006 is estimated at 2.4 billion tonnes.

So... just for an year China's contribution to GW is going to grow with 100mln.tons.carbon (367mln.tons CO2) only from coal. For comparison the total reduction of the EU green energy champion - Germany from 1990 to 2005 is in the order of 40mln.tons of carbon, and is largely due to the closure of East Germany ineffective industries.

So where are we going? Clearly this will lead us to nowhere. Here is my suggestion: implement an international crash program to replace all coal power plants with nuclear by the middle of the century. This is the only way we can realistically reduce our carbon emission, everything else is plain stupidity, or even worse - it is pretending to tackle a problem which needs fundamentally different approach.

I think it's time to prepare to deal with climate change, because preventing it is likely to be futile.

I agree. It is a totally lost cause.

But it makes me gloomy about what will happen with the rest of the global challanges we are going to face in the course of the century... maybe indeed we are stupid lemmings after all? sorry for the depressive tone, but the fact that all of this could have been prevented (if only... several utopical points follow) is simply way too much for me.

I've grudgingly come to the same unhappy conclusion.

From what I've seen so far, massive carbon sequestration is highly impractical and in most cases economically unfeasible. Furthermore, it only deals with stationary combustion sources and thus will leave vehicular C02 emissions untouched (unless all transportation is converted to electric). Not to mention agricultural greenhouse gases, such as methane from bovine flatulence.

Planting more trees also looks to be of dubious effectiveness as a worldwide strategy, and conservation can only be taken so far. It will also take decades to implement mass use of nuclear power. And as we've discussed endlessly at TOD, biomass has some serious inherent limitations.

So, I really don't see much of a dent being made in CO2 emissions anytime soon. If global warming accelerates as rapidly as some people claim it will, we're going to be stuck with it one way or another.

We're just going to have to phase out development in low-lying areas and take a good look at what important agricultural areas are going to be negatively impacted and plan accordingly. The economic and demographic dislocations are likely to be severe even with the best planning, but we better start 'making other arrangements' sooner than later.

It would also not surprise me if some attempts are made to mitigate global warming by adding more aerosols and/or particulates to the atmosphere (as has already been proposed by one scientist). This, of course, will be a tricky proposition that could have some very negative consequences. But, if things get bad enough, I think it will be tried.

(Turn off the electrostatic precipitators on those power plants and start up the carbon black pumps! Maybe 'stimulate' an active volcano with a 10 megaton nuclear device? Hey, we've got to get creative here.)

Maybe 'stimulate' an active volcano with a 10 megaton nuclear device?

Nuclear Winter!!  After all The American Way Of Life is non-negotiable. We all know that.

Why not start with a 10 megaton volcano in the area of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave? I hear that region is known for extended geophysical dormancy. It needs some stimulation.

I think it's time to prepare to deal with climate change, because preventing it is likely to be futile.

There are reports that climate change will result in the extinction of 50% of all currently known species. There is no particular reason to believe that homo sapiens will not be part of that 50%. Given our level of dependency, I think the odds are better than 50/50.

So how do you propose to prepare for extinction? And if this seems an unkind question, please reflect that I am simply expressing LevinK's frustration in a slightly different form.

New account said:
So how do you propose to prepare for extinction?

Eat, drink, and be merry, for tomorrow we die. - Dave Matthews, Trippin Billies

Ethanol is wholesaling at $2.46 on the spot market. Perhaps its use would be better if diverted from the folly of driving and toward drinking!

There are reports that climate change will result in the extinction of 50% of all currently known species. There is no particular reason to believe that homo sapiens will not be part of that 50%.

Oh, I think there is. We're the reason so many other species are on the brink, after all. Our success is killing them. We can move and adapt, and we will.

Will there be a lot of pain and unpleasantness? Undoubtedly. But extinction? Not likely. Dieoff, maybe, extinction, I doubt it. At least, not in any time frame we have to worry about. Nuclear war over the last of the oil is more likely to cause human extinction.

No, we don't prepare for extinction. We prepare for climate change. Which means a "managed retreat" from the coasts. Seed banks, in case the climate changes so much our current crops won't grow where they're growing. Larger food stores than we have traditionally kept. Plans made to evacuate people from low-lying islands. Thinking twice about building expensive infrastructure in harm's way. Perhaps trying to save other species by moving them or storing their DNA. Things like that.

Leanan, I agree completely with your point. Homo sapiens occupy every corner of the earth. The expansion of our niche means that the niche for many other species is disappearing. Our sheer numbers are what are driving most other species into extinction. We are competing with every other species on earth for territory and resources and we are winning...big time.

Of course when we degrade the carrying capacity of most of that territory, and remove a lot of those resources, our numbers will be reduced, perhaps even dramatically reduced. But there is no doubt that there will be survivors on every continent. Absolutely no doubt about it, in my opinion anyway.

Ron Patterson

Our numbers will be reduced. The rest of the planet would be better off if this occurs as soon as possible.

Which means a "managed retreat" from the coasts. Seed banks, in case the climate changes so much our current crops won't grow where they're growing. Larger food stores than we have traditionally kept. Plans made to evacuate people from low-lying islands. Thinking twice about building expensive infrastructure in harm's way. Perhaps trying to save other species by moving them or storing their DNA.

A lot of words which can be better summarized : "pipe dreams"

Not for lack of ideas, not for lack of technology, not for lack of money, not for lack of energy, but...
For lack of proper socio-political mechanisms which could bring about such projects.

Well, I'm not suffering under any delusions about the likelihood of success. But such projects are a better bet than the other things that have been proposed: giant sunshades for the planet, controlled nuclear explosions, building railroads tracks or power plants where they are likely to be inundated, etc.

People are already working on seed banks, and on saving endangered animals.

Long before 50% of species are extinct you will see cascading systems failures. What survives will basically be weeds.
Survival will be on a weed strategy - reproduce quickly, utilize any low grade resource, keep it simple. It will be a much simpler planet

Survival will be on a weed strategy - reproduce quickly, utilize any low grade resource, keep it simple. It will be a much simpler planet.

Sadly, I agree with you. The mega-fauna will go the way of the dodo and the algae, larvae, viri and all of their kin will establish themselves in the ruins.

The notion that we might begin building dikes (how high do you want to build? Who pays? What about the increasing energy costs in the face of scarcity) strikes me as an outcome of a mistaken set of beliefs. Just go with the "shining city on a hill." That avoids the need for dikes.

Made edit to correct spelling of "mega" 1341

I console myself by remembering that there have been several major extinction events in the earth's history and each time the set of species that developed afterward was orders of magnitude more diverse, complex, and IMHO more beautiful than what was here before. (Of course it took millions of years--but the earth is resilient.)

Agreed, we aren't going to stop or really control fossil fuel consuption from a global perspective.

Same for population growth. As long as the resources come to the table population growth will continue.

It's easy to be a doomer these days (if one considers the eventual impacts of global warming and population growth to be negative).

Jared Diamond's books cover how things will go.

This is not directed at you jturpin,

I am really really starting to dislike the "Doomer" label.

If anyone points out the effects of Global Warming, Peak Oil, Peak Food, the Loss of 90% of the large fish in the sea, Drought, Economical collapse, etc. The Effects of the Entire Game Plan built on UnEnding Growth, Out comes the "Doomer" label.

What the heck? I call them a REALIST's observations.

Call me PuddleGlum(Narnia) maybe but I have always subscribed to this quote from Dieoff.com

"If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst."
-- Thomas Hardy

I predict that 2007 will be the year the REALISTS(ie Doomers) hit the mainstream.

Sorry for the rant.

(Now John, you're just being a Negative Doomer...)

Peace
John

Just remember, I sort of have this copyrighted in my tag line:

Todd; a Realist.

nope. you only label yourself as one :P

The "doomer" tag is just an ad hominum. Why debate the issue when you can dismiss everything the persons says by labelling him/her a "doomer"?