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DrumBeat: February 25, 2007
Posted by Leanan on February 25, 2007 - 7:29am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Another Kashagan article: Eni's Kashagan oil field hit by delays
Development of the world's most important new oil field will be delayed by a further three years and require almost double the investment initially anticipated, Eni, the Italian oil group operating the field, said on Friday.
In Big Buyout, Utility to Limit New Coal Plants
Under a proposed $45 billion buyout by a team of private equity firms, the TXU Corporation, a Texas utility that has long been the bane of environmental groups, will abandon plans to build 8 of 11 coal plants and commit to a broad menu of environmental measures, according to people involved in the negotiations.
Kurdish officials to back Iraq oil law
Kurdish authorities have agreed to back a draft law to manage and share Iraq's vast oil wealth, removing the last major obstacle to approving the measure and meeting a key U.S. benchmark in Iraq, a top Kurdish official said Saturday.
Bahrain refined oil exports fall
The average daily exports were 241,220 barrels compared to 249,181.The decrease was attributed to a decline in imports from Saudi Arabia as well as maintenance of the Bapco refinery.
An Eastern Mediterranean Oil War?
The United States' ultimate strategic design is intended primarily to weaken Russia’s role in Central Asia and the Eastern Mediterranean, while isolating Iran from this important energy source.
Coastal Brits fret about climate change
The offshore wooden barrier that once protected the sand and clay cliffs of this stretch of eastern English coast has broken apart, and the government has decided that with the expected rise in sea levels and storm surges that experts attribute to global warming, some vulnerable coastal areas are no longer worth defending.
Grain pain harms the biofuel industry
HIGH grain prices are threatening the nascent biofuels industry, raising input costs and making the fuel less economic compared with oil.
When he joined Air NZ in 2003 - jet fuel was US$30 a barrel before peaking at US$90 a barrel three years later. It was an "uncomfortable" place to be. But a reversal of the "peak oil" scenario, which many doomsday-sayers believed would collapse the sector - has brought new confidence across the sector.
A Few Rambles On The Virtues Of Living In Town
Though I sometimes use my vehicle when the weather is particularly nasty or time is limited, I can usually do many of my activities by walking or riding a bike if I choose. And living in the shadow of Peak Oil, I’ve come to appreciate the benefits of being in a village, town or city where I can reduce my reliance upon the automobile.
Venezuela Spending on Arms Soars to World’s Top Ranks
Venezuelan military and government officials here say the arms acquisitions, which include dozens of fighter jets and attack helicopters and 100,000 Kalashnikov assault rifles, are needed to circumvent a ban by the United States on sales of American weapons to the country.They also argue that Venezuela must strengthen its defenses to counter potential military aggression from the United States.
French Join U.S. Résistance Over London Traffic Charge
Ever since the London authorities imposed a charge to drive into the city center in 2003, the United States Embassy has stood as a beacon of automotive defiance, refusing to pay what its diplomats call a tax from which they should be exempt.But when city leaders almost doubled the size of the charging zone this week, casting their net over an area housing many more embassies, the Americans suddenly acquired new allies in their resistance, including from unusual quarters like France, which has not always been quite so supportive of American diplomacy.
International Energy Agency revises oil demand upwards
In its monthly Oil Market Report released last week, the International Energy Agency said that if Western governments do not design policies to conserve oil, consumption will continue to increase and "in just three years the rate of oil demand growth will once more outstrip the growth of new oil supplies." They concluded that if oil consumption is not curbed, "the slim respite from tight spare capacity may prove very brief." The result of a market with tight spare capacity is increased volatility, and an inability to avoid price spikes.
Great articles, Leanan! I really appreciate your 7 day a week services to all of us.
TXU is already the largest producer of wind in Texas and is making a handsome profit from their operations. They also are the biggest source of mercury pollution because of their lignite plants in East Texas.
doesn't Leanan just freaking rock?
She really does an amazing job filtering through so much stuff to find the nuggets. I would love to see her list of keywords she uses for alerts ... but I know that's proprietary ;)
Rock.... sure. Skilled/talented? Damn straight.
I highly recommend a CBC radio special series called Spin Cycles (http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/spincycles/index.html). The theme of last week's episode (#5 of 6), spinning war, was particularly good. This week's episode will probably be "live" on-line at 11 eastern.
THE RACE IS ON: CAN SOLAR OUTRUN THE NATURAL GAS CRISIS?
http://www.solarforecast.com/ArticleDetails.php?articleID=322
Sharp hedges, but has the production history
http://prextra.sharp-eu.com/pr/eu/download.php?DWID=51&PR=solar_press
Shell bets on CIS Thin Film:
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2006/02/shell_bets_on_t.php
Honda aims to be there and go big:
http://thefraserdomain.typepad.com/energy/2006/12/honda_joins_cig.html
Plus the newcomers,
Q-Cells, Daystar, Global Solar, HelioVolt, Konarka, Miasole, and Nanosolar
There seems to be a growing consensus that the North America faces a potentially dangerous natural gas crisis within the next three to five years, and potentially sooner if weather conditions were to turn against us (i.e.extremely hot summers or extremely cold winters).
Due to local opposition at almost any site chosen and technical /financial issues, the needed imports of LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) are unlikely to arrive in time, unless we assume a miracle is forthcoming.
Stopping increased consumption of natural gas in the production of electricity is now becoming a national safety/security issue.
Can thin film solar get here fast enough? Notice the confluence dates of production, 2007-2010 seems like a pivotal period. Few can easily understand what this level of distribution and freedom on energy production can do, it is a new paradigm.
If CIS thin film can deliver what it promises, a revolution bigger than the computer/internet age is at hand. We will know, and very soon.
Roger Conner
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Do you expect electricity produced from CIS is capable of climbing a cliff?
.
What comes next? Rig count must increase forever to keep the gas flowing. This will drive the cost of drilling, and cost of natural gas. The end result will be, that wind and solar will become cost competitive on some magical day in the future, and utilities will trip over eachother to install systems on rooftops, just like DirectTV and Cable.
utilities will trip over eachother to install systems on rooftops, just like DirectTV and Cable.
Perhaps in MAdison Wisconsin - where all new roofs must be south facing....but not for saps like me who has an E/W Roof.
(thus my PV panels are perpenduclar to the ground on the south wall.)
Mark B asked,
"Do you expect electricity produced from CIS is capable of climbing a cliff?"
(and attached a very interesting chart, thanks...:-)
I don't know. But frankly, the LNG option is falling apart fast. North American nat gas production could perhaps be pushed up slightly, but as we have seen other posters mention, the return per well is declining, so it would be at great expense, and the math shows that we would be unlikely to increase production enough, fast enough. It can be expected that the tar sand effort in Canada, and the increased consumption of both fertilizer and heat for distilling in the ethanol industry will also drive natural gas consumption higher.
We are now running low on options. A massive return to coal is of course a horrendous choice for obvious reasons. So the two remaining choices that can make a difference big enough and fast enough are:
(a) Widespread conservation
(b) Alternatives (wind, solar thermal and PV Solar as the most promising choices)
The conservation route will work, but it will require will. Insulation, movable insulation (insulating shutters) more efficient heating and air conditioning (ground source heat pumps as an example), improvement in appliances and lighting, daylighting, etc. (Does anyone ever go to the energystar site?
http://www.energystar.gov/
Also, re-evaluation of natural gas use in every business and industrial practice it is used in. Reduction of Diesel fuel consumption
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/12/walmart_seeks_t.html
http://ezinearticles.com/?Increased-Fuel-Efficiency-For-Volvo-Trucks&id=...
The reason this is important is that unknown to most consumers, Diesel fuel now requires an increased amount of natural gas to produce, as it is used as desulfuring agent to produce Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel fuel.
But, at the end of the day, there is no avoiding the fact that electric consumption in the U.S. is only going to grow, even with conservation measures. Thus, we have to turn seriously to the alternatives, Wind and Solar.
We have long discussed the wind option, and it has grown as an energy provider, but it must be admitted that it is limited by wind availability and the variability problem.
Solar PV suffers the variability problem, but if cells and panels can be made that are cheaper and more efficient, they can be used almost anywhere. The issue is price per kilowatt. The trend seems to be moving very fast in favor of PV electric, and a fair number of firms are now preparing for mass production. We are at the turning point.
There has been some concern about the supply of Indium. I once did a long post on TOD exposing research I had done into that metal, in which I found that the supply was not nearly as limited as it is sometimes made out, but of course, it was read by virtually no one, being somewhat dry and "boring" to most. For most of it's history, Indium has been considered virtually useless and had no real market, thus no effort has been made many years to even extract it. Likewise, no real effort has been made at improving methods of extraction. I would recomment that anyone interested go to the largest supplier of the metal, and check it out, it is actually very interesting:
http://www.indium.com/
The industry is claiming no real problem on Indium supply for many years, and the thin film solar industry is investing in production capacitiy as though they have no fear of not having raw material. However, the points about supply are well taken, and we should not go into the game wasting the raw material needed to sustain the industry. Indium can be recycled (although for many years, it was so cheap and lacked a market that no one really tried), and all efforts should be made to use the material wisely.
So, can CIS thin film solar climb a cliff? All indications are that it is at the very front of the development curve, and can grow very, very fast. But can it outrun our coming natural gas crisis?
By itself, probably not. But it can be a major part of a overall solution involving electric power consumption conservation efforts, Diesel conservation, and heating/cooling efficiency improvements. In the longer term, it holds revolutionary promise, as the methods of production and the use of raw materials improve. But right now, we must concern ourselves with the near term (3 to 5 years).
We are now at the point that "analysis paralysis" cannot be allowed to slow our efforts. The storm is on the horizon, so close we can start to feel the winds from the storm front. We are running out of time.
Thank you.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Third alternative: Radical increase in efficiency of use.
In this category I would put gas-burning heat pumps (esp. if we could get one of the sub-$300/kW SOFC units into mass production) and just plain insulation.
One radical increase in efficiency. Transfer freight from heavy trucks to electrified rail. 20 BTUa diesel > 1` BTU electricity (joules for y'all metric folk).
Best Hopes,
Alan
If the semis burned natural gas, you might be on-point there....
The #1 source of home heating in the US is natural gas. #2 is heating oil. Heating oil is just diesel without controls on cetane and higher sulfur.
Many industries can switch between natural gas & oil, depending upon price. A number of city buses burn NG, but most burn diesel.
Although a number of small islands burn diesel, it seems unlikely that diesel would become a major source of anything other than emergency power in North America. However, shortfalls of NG will result in more blackouts and much more emergency generation, see China in 2005 as an example. The demand for diesel for on-site generation during blackouts affected world markets.
With some friction, NG & diesel are fungible within a range.
Best Hopes,
Alan
Again, let's double the efficiency of use (for those things we cannot convert). Replace oil furnaces with diesel-driven heat pumps. A Lister-type is about 30% efficient, and a heat pump with an EER of 12 has a coefficient of performance of about 3.5. If heat losses amount to 10%, the net CoP is 0.3*3.5 + 0.6 = 1.65. This is around double the efficiency of the typical oil furnace, cutting fuel requirements in half.
If the coupling between the engine and the heat pump compressor is electric, the system can run on the grid when it is available and use the diesel for backup. The potential for DSM (utility switches the diesels on and off to shave peak loads) ought to have grid managers salivating.
I'm with you on this, RC. I believe electricity produced from solar technology will be a major piece of the solution via applications of electric rail, cars, heating, cooling and cooking, etc. I am preparing to move 10 miles outside a small community that lies between two large cities in Texas (San Antonio and Austin). I own four houses on about 26 acres... the smallest one I'm keeping for myself, the others I hope to keep rented. Living off the grid is my desire. Do you think it's possible to heat/cool/cook/refrig completely from solar in this part of the country with a 700 sqft stone house, metal roof (with fireplace)? After reading Nate's article and comments on Climate Change, Sabre Tooth Tigers and Devaluing the Future, and the encouraging news of CIGS, I am ready to take the plunge and invest the dollars. Hope I'm not too late - :-).
Dear out:
I'm not sure where you live, but here on the Columbia River where I live most of us believe LNG importation would be an unmitigatable disaster -- economic displacement, environmental catastrophe, and a security risk besides. No doubt you would welcome such a thing in your own back yard -- but maybe that isn't even necessary. The four existing plants in the US are reportedly not running at full capacity, and all of them can be expanded when necessary, at far less cost than building a new facility.
The problem seems not so much to be NIMBY's like me, but cold, hard market logic: the market doesn't need the stuff at the price it is willing to pay, and the LNG supply is not available anyway.
NeverLNG,
I am not in the camp who would pick on those locals in various communities who oppose LNG terminals. It is their community, and they have the right to attempt to decide the type of community they want.
To your remark, "No doubt you would welcome such a thing in your own back yard -- but maybe that isn't even necessary." First, I won't make a statement on that, because I am an inlander, in Central Kentucky, so we are not confronted with the choice. It would be cheap of me to say, "yes, we would love to have an LNG Terminal!", knowing that there is no possibility of one being put here. As for "maybe that isn't even necessary.", I have seen no study that shows that the needed volume of LNG can be handled by the 4 existing plants no matter how much they are expanded, unless one assumes expansions of gigantic scale, and likewise, massive expansions in the pipelines to those plants. And imagine the LNG tanker traffic at only 4 terminals! The four we have are simply not enough if all indications are correct.
The critical issue is time. We are simply running out of it. We have been blessed with extremely mild weather, and have already "outsourced" many natural gas critical industries. (fertilizer being the most critical). How much more we can outsource before we really start to damage the U.S. economy we don't know.
What we do know is this: The coming natural gas crisis is about the only issue that such diverse pundits and experts as Matthew Simmons, CERA's Danial Yergin, T. Boone Pickens, the EIA, Roscoe Bartlett, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, and current President G.W. Bush can agree on.
Should that not inform us and cause us to take action?
The LNG option was the preferred course of action of the powers that be.
For a variety of reasons, that option is collapsing. 5 years past where the nation was assured by it's leadership that this path was absolutely essential to have any hope of nat gas supply meeting demand, LNG is virtually stillborn, if not aborted in the womb.
This is why I say again, massive conservation efforts, solar and wind are now becoming our only way to avoid a national emergency, and we probably have 3 to 5 years at most. If we get unlucky on weather, it could be much shorter.
One more thing: In the discussions surrounding the TXU buyout, there is discussion of aborting a good number of planned coal fired plants. This would be a major victory, and should be encouraged, but it only increases the pressure to find some other way to make electric power. Going to natural gas in our current situation would only be another nail in the coffin. This is the time for the alternatives to begin to make their market move. The market pressure for the incorporation of thin film solar, solar hot water, and windmills is increasing daily. Can they deliver? We have to hope so.
Our options are running out.
Thank you for your attention, Roger Conner Jr.
Remember, we are only one cubic mile from freedom
It's the price and availability of indium which will determine the future of the thin-film market, IMO.
I'm all ears. What is the source and market for indium? According to Wikipedia, it is about as abundant as silver in the Earth's crust, and the major current source is Canada.
Is that another reason to pre-emptively invade? Blood for indium??
It's a bitch to extract and refine. Check out the historical prices. The use of indium in flat-panel computer displays has increased demand enough to cause the price to increase 10X from 2002 to 2006.
The use of rare earth elements in thin film PVs will hit a wall when it gets down to ever hoping for them to be manufactured in quantities enough to begin to replace fossil fuels.
that is a concept many people here seem not to understand. % of earth's crust and concentrations of said material are not the only factors in obtaining resources.
capslock said,
"The use of indium in flat-panel computer displays has increased demand enough to cause the price to increase 10X from 2002 to 2006."
While that market has certainly driven the demand and thus the price of Indium up, there is another factor: Speculation.
For many decades, the market for Indium was so limited, and the metal was controlled by such a small group of insiders, there was no speculation attempted.
Recently, the market has drawn enough attention as a speculative play that the FTC had to send out market fruad warning notices telling people that there were many attempting to sell futures in Indium at extremely outragous prices, and with no assurance that they actually had or could get possession of the commodity.
There is one more point: The amount of Indium per square foot of panel is actually quite small, just as it is in flat panel display panels. And the thin film industry is still primitive in it's application of Indium. It is striving to reduce the consumption of raw materials daily.
But, you are correct, as are other posters here, to point out that the materials needed to make the panels are indeed the limiting factor.
We have to assume the industry will get more efficient with each passing day, and they are correct in their bet that the raw materials are out there.
Roger Conner Jr.
Remember we are only one cubic mile from freedom
Uni-Solar is producing some of the best thin-film PV in the world, and it requires no indium. They are using amorphous silicon, which is much cheaper to produce than solar cells made of crystalline silicon, and is not in short supply.
Sun Edison is using their cells in many large scale projects.
I bought four amorphus 10 watt panels 20+ years ago becuase they were cheap. The layers are delaminating from the glass. Hope the new ones have a better lifespan. I also bought a 37 watt shortly after and it's fine. All of the other 48-75 watt panels I have are crystalline. I'll wait quite a few years before I try "the state of the art."
The a-silicon PV from Uni-Solar have been winning projects in California for the elementary school rooftops project, and recently on a Staples Distribution Center in Killingly, Conn., which represents the largest solar panel installation in New England.
I can only assume that these business successes attest to their products quality and price competitiveness.
The lifespan of any PV technology is extremely important because of the very low trickle of power that comes out of it. PV depends on long life for a positive lifetime energy return. If amorphous PV can't cut it in the longevity area, it will soon be history.
THE RACE IS ON: CAN SOLAR OUTRUN THE NATURAL GAS CRISIS?
Errr, Natural gas IS dsolar... just aged.
Humanity has little choice but to use the photon of the now.
(unless fusion on earth is somehow harnessed.)
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/23/business/23cool.html?_r=1&ref=business...
I guess the Chinese are like Americans. They like to be cold in the summer and hot in the winter.
I can only imagine all the racket those zillions of little air conditioners will be making.
Interesting programming on linktv today. The film Affluenza, which looks at "a couple of the greatest social maladies of our time: over-consumption and materialism."
Lynne Twist, author of “The Soul of Money” also has some very interesting things to say in the accompanying commentary.
For the love of money is the root of all evil: which while some coveted after, they have erred from the faith, and pierced themselves through with many sorrows.
1 Tim 6-10
This idolatrous nation (i.e. the "Western Industrial Democracies") will soon pass from the temporal scene. The world is an ongoing miracle: there is plenty of energy, plenty of food, plenty of water, plenty of everything for a worshipful people who will live in right relationship with Creation
Yes, God will save all us Bible thumping Christians. The rest of you idolaters can go straight to hell. God, via his miraculous powers, has provided enough fossil fuel and enough water to support all those who support Him. So when all you heathens are gone, there will be plenty enough left for all us sanctimonious Christians.
Seriously folks, and this is a serious matter, people who believe that God will make things all right if only we do His bidding are one of the things that is making this world a hell hole. Many Muslims think that the world would be a paradise if only all the Christians were all dead, and most Christians feel the exact same way about Muslims. Religion, today, is one of the things that is making things so bad. As long as people believe that “God will fix everything” then there is no need for us to do anything. We can all just kick back, watch television and drive our SUVs while waiting for God to fix everything.
Ron Patterson
please note that you also might want to add the worship of technology into that too. that seems to be a form of faith.
TK,
In regard to your request for advice for younger people on preparing for Post-Peak, and in regard to the "E" and "L" parts of ELP, I think that a good $10 investment is a PDF that you can buy from George Ure at www.urbansurvival.com on how to live on $10,000 or less per year. One of the primary recommendations he makes is to arrange your life so that you can get by without a car.
In regard to the "P" part, working for or becoming a provider of essential goods and services, almost anything related to the production or conservation of energy makes sense. Repair and maintenance makes a lot of sense. Perhaps a good rule of thumb is that you probably don't want to be in most of the sectors that have done well in the past 20 years or so.
In general, we are in the early stages, IMO, of an epic transformation of the US economy--from one focused on meeting wants to one focused on meeting needs.
WestTexas,
Regarding your ELP advice: I found out the hard way what it is like to go from an outsized salary, an outsized house (and an outsized appetite for fine food) to more modest circumstances. While I am happier today, I never would have made the transition voluntarily, as I was too caught up in the "samara" of life - money, prestige and material possessions.
I now live happily with less, in a smaller home, with reduced expectations, and more importantly, without the hunger for more and more and more of the stuff I never really needed in the first place.
If times do get tight in the future, as many of us expect, there are many more people who will learn the hard way what it's like to live with less, and with reduced expectations. I hope that they will find the transition as liberating as I did (although for many, I doubt that they will).
PS Thanks for your wonderful and informative posts. I am glued to my seat to see what happens next in ExportLand...
George,
My income, from early 1986 to early 1989, fell by about 75%, as I did what I had to do to stay employed and to keep the family fed with a roof over our heads. As I have previously outlined, one of the things that I did in early 1989 was to volunteer for a 50% salary cut, offset by getting an equity interest in oil prospects I generated. We are rapidly approaching a period of labor surplus, IMO. By vastly reducing your expenses, you are better able to compete for the remaining jobs. Reality sucks.
In any case, a lot of my current advice is based on "Been there, done that."
Good luck and all we can do is try to warn those who will listen.
As I have repeatedly said, if I am wrong, you will have a lower stress way of life, less (or no) debt, and more money in the bank. If Yergin, et al, are wrong. . .
G in V.
Regarding your ELP advice: I found out the hard way what it is like to go from an outsized salary, an outsized house (and an outsized appetite for fine food) to more modest circumstances. While I am happier today, I never would have made the transition voluntarily, as I was too caught up in the "samara" of life - money, prestige and material possessions.
Notice my user ID. Basically saying that Samsara_is means; That is the American(and others) way to live.
If somes good,
More's Better,
And Too Much Is Just Enough.
I have worked with computers the last 25 years, and have lived the corp. life. Found out about Peak Oil in 2001 from a FTW article. We sold our home in suburbia in 2004 at the top, and move into an apartment. Paying off all loans scaling down. Learning new things. Got a deploma from North Carolina State U. in Renewable Energy and Sustainable Building Methods(great coarse btw).
Am learning all we can about farming. Looking to move back homeward, Upstate NY down in Richmond way.(looked at VT, NH, Mass first)
I am handy, and my wife and two Twentysomething daughters are with us too. A few of brothers and sisters and other relatives have been convinced and are taking action.
Slowly and surely as all members of our society are still involved in the Passion Play of Maya, you will see people (like myself, you and others) are doing a slow moonwalk backwards to the nearest exit.
It's like an underground movement at this point. Lots of labels but it all involves everyone awakening to the truth of the matrix and starting planning, and most importantly "Making NEW little choices everyday".
Paying off bills, learning some self sufficency, insulation...
SOmethings will be effective, some won't but they are all indications of people moonwalking backwards towards the door in this scene.
John