DrumBeat: March 12, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 12, 2007 - 8:09am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Deceitful Solutions To America's Energy Dependence
Of all the US presidential hopefuls and not-so-hopefuls, only Representative Dennis Kucinich -- a less than not-so-hopeful candidate -- has clearly stated time and again what this Iraqi adventure is all about. A single word: Oil. He says it and repeats it with no "strings attached." Kucinich is his own man; a man of principles, religious and otherwise; a man of peace; a man of strong beliefs in the betterment of our human construct. What he repetitively fails to address is the American gluttonous addiction to petroleum products, and he remains silent on the much heralded clean and renewable energies that are nothing but a charade whose only purpose is to throw the wool over the eyes of the American people as mega-corporations, agribusiness, and investors through land speculation are swallowing immense profits, while there is literally no chance that ethanol can ever substitute gasoline to power motor vehicles. Kucinich could do a great service to his fellow citizens if he spoke frankly about the tremendous energy challenges that the country faces.
Four years on, Syrian gas deal still haunts Lebanon
"The crazy thing is that the Homs-Beddawi pipeline was done two years ago, but we are still not able to get gas from Syria or Egypt," says energy engineer Pierre el-Khoury, who is currently working with the United Nations Development Program's (UNDP) branch at the Energy Ministry. "Who is going to be our supplier?"Why were we signing a purchasing agreement with Syria when they don't have enough gas to meet their own requirements, and are in the middle of negotiating a purchasing contract with Egypt?" he adds. "I don't know, maybe they wanted leverage."
Nippon Oil, CNPC set mutual supply
The nation's No. 1 oil wholesaler, Nippon Oil Corp., has agreed with China National Petroleum Corp., China's biggest oil company, to begin mutual supply of products, starting in April.The one-year agreement, signed Friday between Nippon Oil and China Oil, a trading house of CNPC, calls for the two oil companies to supply each other with products for which they have excess production capacities.
Nigeria's Energy Crisis . . . Any End in Sight?
Since the coming of the present administration, Nigerians have not witnessed the worst level of power generation and supply as they are presently going through.The effect is that big and small-scale industries are closing down. Government appears incapable of dealing with the problem even as the terminal date nears.
Howard University Professor finding way to conserve energy, oil with fuel cells
In a small, dank laboratory in the basement of Howard University's engineering building, a control block emits a beep. A small cell under layers of protective covering supplies a watt of energy to a tiny lamp on a control block. This energy originates from a power source that could change the future of energy use in the U.S.
Halliburton's Lesar to Open Middle East Headquarters
Halliburton Co., the world's second-largest oilfield-services provider, will move Chief Executive Officer David Lesar to a new corporate headquarters in Dubai to help the company expand in the Middle East and Asia.
Arthur Nozik believes quantum-dot solar power could boost output in cheap photovoltaics.
GE CEO: U.S. needs national energy, climate policy
The United States needs to develop a national climate change policy, but also recognize that coal and other fossil fuels will remain an important energy source for decades, the chairman and chief executive of General Electric Co. said on Saturday.Setting a blanket national policy would make it easier for companies to adapt than allowing a patchwork of state laws, Jeff Immelt said at a conference on the future of energy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, outside Boston.
"If we get 50 different energy policies in the United States, you never achieve enough scale to be good at anything," Immelt said.
Exxon Mobile CEO: Oil Volumes Will Keep Growing
Global Warming--Common Misconceptions Could be Leading Earth Down a Dangerous Path
Astrophysicists Dr. Hugh Ross and Dr. Jeff Zweerink are available for comment about the science behind global warming and urge caution moving forward. There are many common misconceptions circulating about this phenomenon that are inaccurate. If we move too quickly in an attempt to remedy the situation, as with the Kyoto protocol for example, we risk upsetting the delicate balance of Earth's atmosphere even further and could easily do more harm than good.
Highway speed limit plan irks Germans
An EU official called on Germany to give up the famous freedom of its highways and impose speed limits on the autobahn to fight global warming — a demand that drew angry responses on Sunday in a country that cherishes what it calls "free driving for free citizens."
3 European captives released in Nigeria
Hostage takers released three European captives Monday in Nigeria's restive oil region, officials said.
Petroleum industry 'facing shortage of skilled workers'
A senior Saudi Aramco official warned yesterday that the petroleum industry is facing a tremendous skills shortage which, if goes unchecked will undermine its ability to meet world demands.
OPEC to hold fire over cuts to oil output
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, satisfied with the current price of crude oil, is on Thursday expected to maintain its oil output quota, analysts said.
Oil that fries your burger can run your car
In the search for sustainable and non-polluting alternatives to fossil fuels, a small band of ecologically minded people are turning to vegetable oil and recycled restaurant grease to run their cars, trucks and even home-heating systems.
Solar technology gets White House boost
President Bush's program to help solar energy compete with conventional electricity sources will help fund Konarka Technologies' development of flexible plastic solar cell strips — material that could be embedded into the casings of laptop computers and even woven into power-producing clothing to energize digital media players or other electronics.
The new Seven Sisters: oil and gas giants dwarf western rivals
When an angry Enrico Mattei coined the phrase “the seven sisters” to describe the Anglo-Saxon companies that controlled the Middle East’s oil after the second world war, the founder of Italy’s modern energy industry could not have imagined the profound shift in power that would occur barely half a century later.As oil prices have trebled over the past four years, a new group of oil and gas companies has risen to prominence. They have consolidated their power as aggressive resource holders and seekers and pushed the world’s biggest listed energy groups, which emerged out of the original seven sisters – ExxonMobil and Chevron of the US and Europe’s BP and Royal Dutch Shell – on to the sidelines and into an existential crisis.
I told you so: Daylight Savings Time doesn't save energy
Bahrain: Oil demand 'to rise'
The demand for oil will increase by 55 per cent in the second quarter of the century, Oil and Gas Affairs Minister Dr Abdulhussain Mirza said yesterday.A reason why oil explorations must be expanded, oil resources handled more seriously and producer-consumer co-operation promoted, the minister said as he opened the 15th Middle East Oil Show.
Bahrain oil minister warns over Gulf tension
Bahrain's oil minister Sunday warned over political tension in the region, and called for continued global support from the world community to help ensure continued stability.
BP plan brings warnings about biofuel technology
Biofuel research is worth doing and may be one of many essential tools to limit damage from future climate change, but there are big environmental and social risks if it's pushed too hard and too fast.
Because we know that burning oil, coal and gas is causing monstrous problems, but because he’s still paid by oilmen, Bush just visited Brazil to sign an agreement with President Lula to increase ethanol production. Produced from sugar cane and corn, ethanol is refined to “replace” fossil fuels. Obama and Bush say its cleaner than coal, and doesn’t require any meddling in the Middle East, like oil does. But neither will tell you that producing ethanol creates more emissions than oil, and costs a fortune.
Ethanol not the oil substitute
Brazil's example is encouraging, but it does not mean that nations like Taiwan can rely solely on alternative fuels like ethanol when seeking to greatly reduce reliance on oil. Ethanol is certainly a valuable part of the mix, but when you consider that Brazil still consumes far more petroleum than it does ethanol, while in the US ethanol currently only comprises about 4.2 percent of gasoline supply it is obvious that ethanol is not the panacea to the world's future fuel needs.
Strapped for Energy, Chile Looks at Nuclear Option
Burgeoning demand for electricity and steeper prices for natural gas imports are prompting Chile to consider nuclear power to address an energy shortfall that seems certain to intensify.
China likely to miss energy-saving target
China will probably miss its 2004-2020 energy-saving target because local governments have set higher-than-expected energy consumption limits in order to boost their own economies, a report by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said.



As Borat would say: $59 oil is really slowing down globalization-NOT http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajK_waG4MiRY&refer=w...
The funniest thing is the "solution" is for China's currency to strengthen faster than the current 4-5% per annum since 2005.
This is of interest for me so I'm moving this set of postings from the last drumbeat to start a recent thread:
Leannan's link above: I told you so: Daylight Savings Time doesn't save energy
I got this in late last night. Just wanted to post it again.
Having been at this topic for 9 years, I am certain that short of collapse there will be no significant movement toward plan B. The cluelessness of the MSM is so overwhelming as to leave one breathless. I took a break today and watched the coverage of the fires in California on Fox news. One of their reporters, a Trace Ghallager, made the idiot of the day award for me when he said, " Well the fire fighters caught a break today, as with daylight savings there will be an extra hour of daylight to fight the fire." Maybe we could get president Bush to declare an emergency Daylight savings for Orange County so the sun would not go down until the fire is out. Mind boggling!
The verbal exchange between Robert and Jeffrey is interesting but meaningless. The Saudi peak will happen when it does, the world peak will happen when it does, and NO ONE will prepare for it, other than a few lunatics like us, on this site and others similar to it.
Treeman, you had better hope that you don't have any forest fires on Nov 4th, when there'll be one less hour of daylight!
the extended dst is congress's effort to make it look like they are doing something about our dependence on foreign oil. i suppose it will make a small difference. as far as i know, however congress is still endorsing the $$,$$$ tax credits on $$$,$$$ suv's.
Halliburton to move HQ to Dubai
I haven't seen this in the main stream financial news headlines yet today, but Al Jazeera is reporting it.
There are implications for Americans here that go way beyond this one particular corporate move. Think down the road a bit.
While the average American may think Oregon will be place to be when the going gets tough, other "Americans" think, um, maybe Dubai.
I am intrigued by the link that someone posted yesterday in a reaction to the news about the Halliburton move posted on the Drumbeat.
http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Aviation/10110484.html
says that Dubai airport is one of the biggest cargo handlers in the world. What on earth comes in there? You're not talking about big population centers, after all. Is it all military cargo?
Sorry for the repost. I didn't get a chance to look at Drumbeat yesterday.
Did anyone comment on the rather incredible irony of a soon to be Middle East company running America's "detention centers" through KBR?
Yeah, you have to love the fact that Middle East companies were barred from buying US ports, but they do get to run prisons.
They say they intent to spin KBR off.
An AP reporter interviewed on NPR this AM speculated that from a taxation standpoint, Dubai would be a much more "friendly" location than Houston.
Question: Would anyone care to (1) speculate as to how much this will really affect Halliburton's tax liability and, (2) if this does present a much more favorable situation as regards taxation (and perhaps other regulation), what is to prevent the oil majors from relocating to Dubai?
Reason I ask is that Dubai is currently adding the equivalent of a mid-to-large American city's worth of office space each year and it is very hard for me to believe that all of this building is being done on speculation. Wouldn't it make more sense to think that perhaps "decisions" have already been made for mass-relocation of energy-related/energy-intensive businesses to Dubai and that the "icing on the cake" so to speak, will be a much more favorable tax and regulatory environment?
Isn't this, logically, the oil major's best solution to the specter of windfall profits taxation by the US Congress?
I think you hit the nail on the head. They avoid potential windfall profit taxes and they also avoid public scrutiny of their operations. Think about how much scandal Halliburton has been involved in.
Hmmm ...
They just might. What many folks don't realize is that Halliburton has many huge business dealings with the axis of evil. Dubai is a perfect location to facilitate those business activities. Halliburton also deals in portions of the arms business, so what better place to be....
All sorts of irritations dissappear:
Tax
Windfall taxes
Congressional Investigations and oversight.
Meddling Journalists and authors.
All sorts of irritations evaporate when you throw your lot in with a feudal City State. All sorts of new opportunities arise.
Welcome to the 5GW world of Corporate Wars: Once you are free of Congressional oversight, you can buy a private , mercenary army and then do what you want.
Corporations are now living, breathing, intelligent entities. They supercede the National Governments of old.
Like any living creature, they exist to grow and breed.
They look after themselves.
Funny though: They spent the last decades waving old glory.
And now they are leaving...
Funny that... Who would have thought they would have put personal survival above the common wealth of the nation that nurtured them?
What did you really you expect from a VP who 'had other things to do' when grunts went to Vietnam?
'So long suckers and thanks for the cash'.
Seems to me that William Gibson's view of the immediate future was right on. See Neuromancer, Mona Lisa Overdrive, etc..
He: They could build a corporate retreat (a "team building" centre) on a ranch in Paraguay. Supposedly they know somebody who owns land there.
The Saudi beat goes on...
More Saudi Cuts in April
South Korean refiners get 9% cut in Saudi term crudes for April
Singapore (Platts)--12Mar2007
South Korean refiners have received a higher cut of 9% in their April
liftings for term crudes from Saudi Arabia, sources close to the refiners
told Platts Monday.
Last month, Saudi Aramco slashed its term allocation for March crude
supplies into South Korea by 7-8%.
For the second consecutive month, cuts were focused largely on Arab
Heavy.
The reduction will probably support spot sales of heavier Persian Gulf
sour crudes, a trader said: "South Korean refiners should be able to manage the cuts without too much of a fuss though," another market player said.
From Reuters:
This is all about to come to a head. The Saudis are going to be called upon to bump up production pretty soon. If they don't, then I will conclude that at least for the time being, they can't. That may mean that their production has peaked, either due to geological constraints, or because they failed to anticipate demand and didn't construct their projects in the pipeline soon enough.
This is subscriber information from OPIS, so I will only post a small amount of the report:
What we are seeing is a combination of falling inventories and rising prices. Demand will really kick up in April and May, when refineries are coming out of their turnarounds. If the current trend continues, Saudi will be called upon to deliver.
Because of a superhuman effort, I have no comment.
But what happened to your Texas HL post? I saw it for about 30 seconds.
WT: LOL!
Don't get too excited. Corrupted file. My analysis of the Texas HL is in no way impacted by whether or not Saudi peaked. In fact, if Saudi has peaked, you will come away from that essay with a very different perspective about the ability of the HL to predict the future.
Here is a tidbit until I get the essay back up. The first time the HL would have suggested that Texas peaked was in 1956, at 56% Qt. It gets worse from there.
Several people have read my essay already and commented that my argument is sound. So, give me a couple of hours to get my clean copy from home.
I was just about to comment on that. PG put it up, and somehow the last part was corrupted. Looks like a bunch of Russian characters. It had been put up so TOD staff could read it, and it was fine then. I didn't make any edits. So, somehow the information was corrupted. He e-mailed to let me know, and I have to fix it.
But alas, I have a clean copy at home, so in about 2 hours when I get home I will repost and put it back up. I don't intend to change one word. I can tell you that the truth of the Texas HL will surprise even you. It has to.
RR
I did a quick read through.
Some points for you to ponder:
I don't think that I ever claimed that the Texas HL plot, prior to the peak, was not noisy. I did claim that we can, in retrospect, tell at what stage of depletion that Texas peaked.
I also claimed that Saudi Arabia has a much more stable HL plot than Texas. The recent change in inflection is what we also saw right before the Texas peak. (Even Euan has conceded this point.)
As I noted the other day, my Saudi prediction last year was really easy, since we have no examples, insofar as I know, of large producing regions (60 Gb or more) showing sustained higher production past the 55% to 60% of Qt mark.
In any case, IMO, as I have suggested several times this debate is about as relevant as whether the Titanic would sink in two hours or four hours. Unfortunately, for the passengers, it looks like it's closer to two hours.
Got a lifeboat picked out?
Khebab's HL plots:
Texas:
http://static.flickr.com/44/145149303_e59bbf9890_o.png
Saudi Arabia
http://static.flickr.com/52/145149302_924470eaa7_o.png
Edit;
Following are the Lower 48 and World HL plots:
Lower 48:
http://static.flickr.com/45/145149304_a4a72211e6_o.png
World (C+C+ NGL):
http://static.flickr.com/54/145149301_b930ef7bc4_o.png
All four plots have the same vertical scale. Note how stable the Saudi, Lower 48 and World HL plots are.
As I noted the other day, my Saudi prediction last year was really easy, since we have no examples, insofar as I know, of large producing regions (60 Gb or more) showing sustained higher production past the 55% to 60% of Qt mark.
A key point of the essay is that your claim above is not true. Not even close. Furthermore, I really think you should have known that. But I don't want to make this just a personal disagreement between the two of us. This is about the validity of a tool that is used to predict peak. Give the essay a read and I think you will end up with a different perspective of the HL. If you don't, I won't be the only one who is surprised.
But I don't want to give too much away. I will have it fixed up in a bit.
I guess that is why no one using the HL method predicted the World and Saudi crude oil production declines.
Robert, in all honestly you are beginning to remind me of the Texas State Geologist, who in 2005 (33 years after Texas peaked) was critical of Hubbert's methods, and who claimed that higher Texas production was right around the corner--perhaps even back to our peak producing level.
I guess that is why no one using the HL method predicted the World and Saudi crude oil production declines.
I will save further comments for the story.
Robert, in all honestly you are beginning to remind me of the Texas State Geologist, who in 2005 (33 years after Texas peaked) was critical of Hubbert's methods, and who claimed that higher Texas production was right around the corner--perhaps even back to our peak producing level.
Based on my findings this weekend when validating Texas, I am going to have to ask for a reference on that.
But I thought the Saudi's would NEVER lie about their ability to raise production Robert, and what about the magic hand of the free market? ;) haha
I never said anything like that. Sheesh, some people. OK, I challenge you to find where I have said anything remotely like that. In fact, I have said expressly that we can't afford to trust them on this issue.
A number of people have asked me what would convince me that the current situation with Saudi is involuntary. I have said that if inventories come down and prices stay high, I expect them to bump up production. If they don't, then I would say they can't. Right now we find ourselves in a situation where inventories are falling and price is pretty high. But that still doesn't change the fact that their move last year was consistent with what the market was calling for. Again, I have said that doesn't prove that's why they did it, but their story does check out.
OMG...if RR calls a peak in KSA then their REALLY IS A PROBLEM. He has been the most reluctant of the bunch to call a near-term peak in the respected TOD crowd.
I'm not joking hear Robert, I respect your comments, but if you are starting to think it's true then we have almost 100% consensus in our contributors (minus Euan perhaps).
I am not saying it's true. I am just pointing out that conditions are aligning for us to find out pretty quickly whether it's true. I wasn't sure that demand would pick up enough this year, but now I believe it will. I think we will know something for sure by summer.
I will say this, and I can guarantee you that some well-respected members who have read my essay in the queue agree: The HL does not possess the capability of accurately calling a Saudi peak. I will have the essay up to prove this shortly.
RR: The HL wasn't the only info used to predict the KSA peak (by WT or anyone else). There was the HL, the declining production in the face of historically high prices, the "inside source" of Heinberg's, contradictory statements from KSA bigwigs, etc.etc. It wasn't just one thing, it was a combination of supporting evidence.
Right, it is what is called a preponderance of evidence! There were several hundred papers filed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers, which Simmons reported on in “Twilight in the Desert.” Then there was the statement by the Aramco Senior Vice President saying that their “existing fields” sustained a 5 to 12 percent decline rate. Then there was that inside info that indicated that Ghawar was having trouble even producing 3 million barrels per day. Then there were those “voluntary cuts” (snicker, snicker). Then came the OPEC mandated cuts where Saudi cut at least twice their mandate.
Now we have the coming personnel shortage to explain future cuts that will probably be coming in March or April.
Then of course we do have the HL predictions. I am unsure which confirms which. Does the HL prediction confirm what the preponderance of evidence supports, or does the preponderance of evidence confirm what the HL plot predicts?
Ron Patterson
Another article on the speech by Saudi Aramco Sr. Vice President of Exploration & Producing Abd Allah Al-Saif:
Technically (you have no idea how much I love getting to use this...) "preponderance of the evidence" means more likely than not...sometimes, an analogy of "one inch past the 50 yard line" is used. Much lower threshold than "clear and convincing" or beyond a reasonable doubt."