DrumBeat: March 15, 2007


Giants Like Stable Environments

After analyzing giant fields discovered up to 2000, Mann and his colleagues predicted that new giant discoveries for 2000-09 would occur primarily in passive margin and rift environments, especially in deepwater basinal settings.

They also projected the addition of giant fields in known areas, including hydrocarbon provinces of the Persian Gulf, West Siberia and Southeast Asia.

So far, those predictions have been spot on.

Kuwait looking to natural gas, nuclear options

Kuwait is considering an import terminal for liquefied natural gas, gas imports from Iran and Iraq and nuclear power to help it match soaring demand for electricity, its energy minister said yesterday.

Kuwait was in discussions with Royal Dutch Shell and BG Group on a possible LNG import terminal and also for exploration and development of the country’s gas reserves, Sheikh Ali al-Jarrah al-Sabah said.


Brazil Plans to Triple Ethanol Exports in 7 Years

Brazil plans to almost triple ethanol exports in the next seven years and will need investments of about $13.4 billion to boost output, said the nation's Agriculture Minister Luis Carlos Guedes Pinto.


Unconventional Oil, Gas Sources Limited

Maturing hydrocarbon provinces, combined with the trend toward greater resource nationalism, is forcing international oil companies toward both technological and geographic frontiers.


White House seeks to cut geothermal research funds

The Bush administration wants to eliminate federal support for geothermal power just as many U.S. states are looking to cut greenhouse gas emissions and raise renewable power output.


GAO Report: Safety Consequences of Terrorist Attack on LNG Tanker [PDF]

The three studies that considered LNG explosions concluded explosions were unlikely unless the LNG vapors were in a confined space. Only the Sandia study examined the potential for sequential failure of LNG cargo tanks (cascading failure) and concluded that up to three of the ship’s five tanks could be involved in such an event and that this number of tanks would increase the duration of the LNG fire.


Trutnev Warns Oil Firms on Slow Eastern Siberian Finds

Oil companies could be punished for not working fast enough to find new reserves in eastern Siberia to fill a new pipeline to Asia, Natural Resources Minister Yury Trutnev said Wednesday.


War, Neoliberalism and Empire in the 21st Century: Noam Chomsky Connects the Dots

As far as the U.S. economic interests I think we have to make a distinction. The primary interest, and that's true throughout the Middle East, even in Saudi Arabia, the major energy producer, has always been control, not access, and not profit. Profit is a secondary interest and access is a tertiary interest.

So in the years when the U.S. was not using Middle East oil at all, [the U.S.] was the largest producer and the largest exporter, it still had the same policies. It wanted to control the sources of oil and the reasons are understood. In the mid-1940s, the State Department made it clear that the oil resources of the region, primarily then Saudi Arabia, were a stupendous source of strategic power which made the Middle East the most strategically important area of the world. They also added that its one of the greatest material prizes in world history. But the basic point is that it's a source of strategic power, meaning that if you control the energy resources, then you can control the world, because the world needs the energy resources.


The Methane Economy

A recent advance by a team of researchers at the University of NSW has pointed the way forward. Their work combined with two other technologies can lead to a method of producing methane, methanol or diesel fuel from sunlight, water and air.


Why Is Saudi Arabia’s Oil Production Down?

We still have three years and nine and a half months to learn who will win the bet between energy investment banker Matthew R. Simmons and New York Times columnist John Tierney over whether oil prices would be above or below $200 a barrel in 2010. Tierney bet "below" because he believes that over the long term, the prices of natural resources always tend to decline, and he cited a 1980-1990 precious metals bet that favored that outcome. Simmons has looked deeply into the extraction of oil from underneath the sands of Saudi Arabia, and has concluded that their oil production will most likely decrease or flatline in the coming years. Saudi Arabia claims 25% of the world's proven oil reserves, by far the largest share claimed by any country. Those who have watched The End of Suburbia: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of the American Dream have heard Simmons say, "If it turns out that Saudi Arabia has peaked, then, categorically, the world has peaked."

With oil prices having fallen into the $50 range and now trading in the $60 range, for the moment it looks like Tierney's ahead in the bet. But the more important question for the worldwide economy is whether Saudi Arabia can increase its oil output in the years ahead or not. The Oil Drum has hosted a spirited debate on that question recently.


Dimwits: Why 'green' lightbulbs aren't the answer to global warming

...Low energy bulbs are much more complex to make than standard bulbs, requiring up to ten times as much energy to manufacture. Unlike standard bulbs, they use toxic materials, including mercury vapour, which the EU itself last year banned from landfill sites - which means that recycling the bulbs will itself create an enormously expensive problem.

Perhaps most significantly of all, however, to run CFLs economically they must be kept on more or less continuously. The more they are turned on and off, the shorter becomes their life, creating a fundamental paradox, as is explained by an Australian electrical expert Rod Elliott (whose Elliott Sound Products website provides as good a technical analysis of the disadvantages of CFLs as any on the internet).

If people continue switching their lights on and off when needed, as Mr Elliott puts it, they will find that their 'green' bulbs have a much shorter life than promised, thus triggering a consumer backlash from those who think they have been fooled.


OPEC's Saudi Arabia Warns Angola on Oil Expansion

Saudia Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, has told Angola, its newest entrant, not to assume it will be able to expand production past 2 million barrels a day, The Financial Times reports Wednesday, without citing sources.

This is a blow to the world's biggest oil companies, which have already paid Angola billions of dollars for the right to explore and produce its oil.


Renewing a Call to Act Against Climate Change - an article about Bill McKibben.


Oil's going down, down, down

For reasons I've never understood, people love disaster scenarios. Tell them their portfolios will rise 7% this year and their eyes glaze. But say the world economy is teetering on the edge of an abyss and they jolt upright with excitement: "Really? Tell me more!"

The best scare story of them all has been about peak oil. At least as interpreted by many financial advisers, the peak oil theory amounts to the belief that $100-per-barrel oil is just around the corner. (All figures in U.S. dollars.) With expensive oil will come deep recession and — dear me — a complete re-engineering of our oil-guzzling, SUV-driving lifestyles.


John Michael Greer: The Amphetamine of the Intellectuals

As the first part of this review suggested, David Korten’s widely praised book The Great Turning: From Empire to Earth Community proposes what amounts to a political solution for the predicament of industrial society. Korten argues that replacing current “developmentally challenged” politicians with new leadership drawn from the upper ranks of today’s progressive social change movements will foster a shift from a society based on the old ideology of Empire to one based on his preferred ideology of Earth Community. This shift, he claims, is the only effective response we can make to the crisis of industrial civilization he surveys so eloquently in the third chapter of the book. Yet it’s only fair to ask just how Korten anticipates that a society guided by his “emerging values consensus” will deal with, say, the immense practical challenges of coping with peak oil


Saudi Aramco's Shaybah expansion breaks ground


Energy crisis aggravating in Tajikistan

Supply of electricity to the Tajik capital has been toughened ever more. Now electricity will be supplied eight hours a day instead of 17 hours as before.


Ghana: VALCO To Suspend Operations

The Volta Aluminium Company (VALCO) Limited will, with effect from tomorrow, suspend its operations, due to inadequate power supply from the Akosombo Dam.

The shutdown, the 11th in the history of VALCO since its establishment in 1967, will result in declaring majority of the 700 labour force redundant.


Tech leaders call for 'green' policies

A group of technology executives said Wednesday that the world is facing an energy crisis, and they called on US policymakers to embrace a "green tech" agenda focused on encouraging energy conservation and reducing US dependence on foreign energy sources.


Libya to Launch Gas Bidding Round Later in 2007

Eager to tap into abundant natural gas reserves, Libya is planning to hold a bidding round later this year to develop gas fields onshore and offshore, the head of the country's oil industry said Wednesday.


US-Pakistan firms sign LNG LoI

US-based Excelerate Energy has signed the LoI with Pakistan 's Associated Group to provide one of the world's only four LNG Regasification Vessels at Port Qasim, Karachi , and to provide LNG through its network of international producers.


U.S.-Israel energy act introduced

The American Jewish Congress applauded the introduction of the U.S.-Israel Energy Cooperation Act to the U.S. Senate. The bill is a "landmark effort to establish the same type of strategic partnership between the U.S. and Israel to help solve the energy crisis as has been so successful in addressing military matters," AJCongress Senior Vice President Jack Halpern said in a statement Wednesday.


Senate Bill Would Expand Drilling Off Florida's Shores

Florida's two senators expressed alarm Tuesday over a proposal they said would put oil rigs just 45 miles from the Florida coast -- and skirt the embargo against Cuba by allowing U.S. firms to explore for oil and gas in Cuban waters.


Troubles overblown in growing economy

“This is not our parents’ economy,” he said, referring to the energy crisis in the 1970s. “Only about 2 percent of all wages go to gasoline and oil costs.”


ConocoPhillips: Working with Oil Ministry on Iraq Field Plan

ConocoPhillips (COP) is working with the Iraq Oil Ministry and Russia's OAO Lukoil Holdings (LKOH.RS) on a development plan for the West Qurna field, a ConocoPhillips executive said Wednesday.


Special Report from Colombia

My friends, you will tell your children about the week when George W. Bush became the most ardent champion of clean fuel in the Western Hemisphere. This represents a shift in social, foreign and economic policy that cannot be ignored.


Scientists need to confront economists about peak oil - a letter to Nature

SIR — Your News Feature “That’s oil, folks” (Nature 445, 14–17; 2007) highlights the debate over depletion of the world’s oil reserves. I would like to make some additional points.

First, the proponents of the peak-oil theory are predominantly Nature’s constituency — scientists — whereas the vocal opposition are, to a significant extent, economists.


Monthly Review

Faced with immense and growing environmental, economic, and social problems, capitalism, as Panitch and Leys rightly suggest, is showing signs of shifting towards increased authoritarianism. However, the advent of a more barbaric system is no longer the worst of our worries. It is the threat to the planet itself that constitutes our most dire challenge.


EcoManor: The first certifiably green mansion

From the outside, the Seydel family's new home looks like any old Tudor manse. Well, it's too tall for its quiet block. (Neighbors have complained.) But who would guess that this is the largest eco-friendly house in America? With its 27 photovoltaic panels on the roof, solar tubes that snake into interior rooms, geothermal heat pumps, and rainwater-collecting cisterns, this is, in fact, the first home over 5,000 square feet ever to be certified by the U.S. Green Building Council - and evidence of a new wave of eco-building that doesn't look like eco-building.


Tom Whipple - The Peak Oil Crisis: The Portland Report

As someone who is familiar with the literature and follows the peak oil story on a daily basis, I can report that the folks on the Portland Peak Oil Task Force have produced a succinct, outstanding report that should be read by every local official everywhere. While there will naturally be many local variations, Portland’s approach to the problem contains much that seems universally applicable.


BP says oil and gas recovery crucial

Maximising recovery from existing oil and gas fields will be crucial to meeting the world's growing energy needs as the number of undiscovered fields diminishes and the cost of new exploration increases, according to a BP representative speaking at the 15th Middle East Oil and Gas Show held in Bahrain from March 11-14.

"Demand for energy is expected to increase 50% to 60% by 2030, much of it from newly emerging markets," explained Peter Roberts, Subsurface Manager, BP Abu Dhabi. "At BP, we believe the industry needs to look to increasing recovery from existing fields to meet this rising demand."


Russia clinches Balkan oil deal

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a deal in Athens to ship Russian oil to the EU via a pipeline bypassing the busy Bosphorus.


Study: Coal industry faces bleak future

The coal industry faces a bleak future unless ways are developed on a commercial scale to capture and store carbon dioxide in the campaign against global warming, according to a study released Wednesday.


Energy giants target ethanol unit

China plans to double fuel ethanol consumption to 10 million metric tons in the 10 years to 2020, China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd, the nation's largest rice producer, said in February. The government is promoting the use of ethanol gasoline to cut emissions and fuel imports as car demand rises.


Energy to burn: fossil fuels

Oil is not running out. You heard it from Mark Jaccard first. In his new book, Sustainable Fossil Fuels, Jaccard, a professor in the school of resource and environmental management at Simon Fraser University, explains why there's no need to worry about our dependency on non-renewable energy. He believes oil, natural gas and coal will fuel the global energy system for decades to come--and in ways that don't pollute.


OPEC ministers to keep output steady

OPEC oil ministers agree that their organization should maintain production levels, a senior Libyan oil official said Thursday, signaling they will opt for the status quo in their formal decision later in the day.


OPEC revises upwards world oil demand forecast

OPEC on Thursday raised slightly its forecast for world oil demand growth, although it voiced concern about possible economic weakness that could erode oil demand.


2 Italian oil workers freed in Nigeria

Militants on Thursday released two Italian oil worker hostages who were seized more than three months ago in Nigeria's restive southern region, militants and officials said.


Auto execs, lawmakers focus on climate

U.S. automakers and a top union official pledged Wednesday to work with Congress to find new ways of dealing with global warming but declared their industry could not bear the burden alone.


World may get greener, then wilt, due warming

Global warming is expected to turn the planet a bit greener by spurring plant growth but crops and forests may wilt beyond mid-century if temperatures keep rising, according to a draft U.N. report.


New Hampshire towns press Washington on warming

Nearly 90 New Hampshire towns have passed resolutions urging Washington to act on climate change, hoping to use the state's powerful role in the presidential race to bring attention to global warming.


Climate change has parched Aussie farmers looking north

Two-thirds of Australia's freshwater flows down the great tropical rivers of the north, compared with less than five percent in the depleted waterways of the south.

It is hardly surprising, then, that a government task force this week will begin studying the prospects of encouraging Australia's farmers to bow to the harsh realities of drought and climate change, and head north. Critics, however, warn that the north's own climate peculiarities, lack of infrastructure, and indigenous land claims could make industrial-scale farming a risky venture.

Hybrids: The Not So Shocking Truth
By Paul Niedermeyer
March 15, 2007

Mention the word “hybrid” on an automotive internet site and commentators clump into two camps. It’s either “I save the planet while getting 97.467 mpg driving my Prius up Pikes Peak” or “I search and destroy hippy trust-fund Prius drivers with my jacked-up diesel F-350”. Despite this ongoing socio-political clash over mixed propulsion, hybrid sales have brought the technology into the mainstream. Which puts us in a better place to answer the obvious question: what’s the future beyond the hype?

In the automobile’s infancy, battery electric vehicles (BEV’s) outsold and, in many famous cases, outperformed cars powered by internal combustion engines. But lead-acid batteries limited the BEV’s range, dooming them to obsolescence. In 1902, Ferdinand Porsche attempted to forestall the inevitable by developing the first gas - electric hybrid. Needless to say, Herr Porsche had better luck with gas-powered tanks and sports cars.

A hundred years later, Toyota had the guts, vision and cash to develop their groundbreaking series/parallel hybrid drive (gas engine and electric motor alternately or simultaneously propelling the car) using NiMH batteries. Despite its success, Toyota’s Synergy Drive has generally been seen as a transitional technology.

GM’s highly touted Volt concept (which follows Porsche’s principles closely) supposedly represents The Next Big Thing. It’s a serial hybrid– an internal combustion engine runs a generator that charges batteries that power the electric drive motor. Conceptually, it's the most efficient arrangement.

http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/?p=3342

Not a bad primer; some good comments.

Leanan and Editors,

Please can we ban the spammer Radzalti

I'll ask SuperG to do it, if he doesn't see the request here.

I've been keeping my eye on radzalti. The last couple of days, he's been posting weird comments. Just nonsense, like a cat walking over your keyboard, and random phrases like "i hate spam" or "i love spaming."

My guess: a spammer testing his spambot, or someone who has been banned, trying to see what he can get away with.

Do a Google search and you'll see that this person has been doing similar things on other sites. All "footprints" seem to be very recent.

Hello Leanan - I'm not sure what radzalti is, but it seems like some attention to the fairly hard to classify comments might be worthwhile - the account almost seems a test if anyone is paying attention to what goes on in the threads.

The wild and wooly Internet at its best - till now, radzalti gets a Hithhiker's Guide rating of mostly harmless.

Jeff Brown (aka WestTexas) on the Wall Street Journal Energy blog:

http://blogs.wsj.com/energy/2007/03/14/blog-roll-saudis-70-depleted/

Jaccard's book and premise (CTL, etc. profitable at $40) reminds me of every mutual fund ad I've seen. Assuming an 8% risk-free return (8% AFTER INFLATION) if you just invest (give us) $2.00 a day in 20 years you will be worth $6 million blah blah blah. You start with a silly premise (all these alternatives profitable at $40) and then run with it. No discussion of the massive amount of investment necessary or the curious lack of interest in putting money in such an obvious gold mine.

Jaccard's book and premise (CTL, etc. profitable at $40) reminds me of every mutual fund ad I've seen.

There is a fatal flaw in every one of these projections, which I have observed before. Yes, if oil today is $20/bbl, then CTL projected at $40/bbl is profitable. However, one of the biggest problems with this kind of projection is that once oil reaches $40/bbl, everything associated with building the CTL plant is now more expensive. So now we say with oil at $40/bbl, CTL will be profitable at $60/bbl. And the cycle goes on.

This is exactly why GTL projects are being abandoned and tar sands projects are facing sky-rocketing costs: As oil prices increased, project costs increased, equipment costs increased, energy costs increased, labor costs increased and suddenly break even moved further away. In my honest opinion, the break even cost for CTL is going to be over $100/bbl.

Robert, I named this the Law of Receding Horizons a few days ago.

What's true for CTL and tarsands is true for just about any form of "alternative" energy I can see. And it's only getting worse. The costs for the MacKenzie Valley pipeline, supposed to feed natural gas into Alberta, are now estimated at $16 billion, 4 times higher than a 2002/3 estimate. A CO2 sequestration pipeline in Canada went from $1.5 to $5 billion in 2 years.

I asked if anyone could come up with numbers to support "my" Law. Your $100 bbl for CTL is the first. Any idea for tarsands? I know, it could gallop way further than today. "At current prices" may not prove much. As you say, the cycle goes on.

Ethanol, corn version, is a prime example. Its production raises corn prices, which in turn raises ethanol production prices. And rising oil prices hurt ethanol production too. At what corn price would the whole thing collapse?

As I said before, supply and demand don't hold here, corn prices can't rise indefinitely, the market is not infinitely flexible. People need to eat.

Are there alternatives which _don't_ obey this law? Wind seems to have reached a _real_ breakeven point, and solar thermal seems to be pretty close also. If (a big if) battery technology continues to improve along 3 dimensions (cost, energy density, power density) at its recent rate, I am expecting that we will be able to _start_ the conversion to renewable-energy powered private transportation in about 5 years (and I don't expect that horizon to recede...)

CW
Global peak: 2007 - 2010
Global decline rate, Post peak: 2%
Economic response: Severe global recession, ~5 years, then slow recovery

Didn't we also have this with the "Synfuels" 'way back in Jimmy Carter's day? IIRC it seems like the price of the "synfuel" was always a little more per barrel than the cost of ordinary oil - no matter how high the price of that ordinary oil.

This is the EROI treadmill that has me very concerned to the point I dismiss peak oil. Not that they are not related but the real problem is peak EROI.

Cheap energy is so deeply embedded in our society its not clear we even know how badly long term rising or even high energy costs effect it. My own take is that even in our present situation a lot of processes are going negative on EROI.

For example consider a existing plastic toy manufacture say his factory equipment was built 15 years ago with cheap oil.

Next consider creating one today with equipment created in a resource constrained world. Unless innovation has allowed the new equipment to work faster better and more efficient the new toy manufacture is not competitive with the old one.

This means you get no new tow manufacture or if you do they use a lot more used recycled equipment.

No problem with this but as you can see this means toy equipment manufactures take a beating and many go out of business maybe the remaining ones have to raise prices to cover manufacturing costs or try to move to a cheaper location.

So the first thing that starts to die is manufactures of equipment for factories. This is exactly the place that the US Europe and Japan compete i.e we still build a lot of the equipment for factories in china. It's almost all imported from abroad. I've toured a few factories in china and very little of the equipment for the factory itself is made in china and what little is made there is generally from a factory controlled by a western or japanese firm. Simple labor costs are not a big issue for this type of equipment.

I brought this up because we focus on EROI issues that directly effect production but its easy to see that it snowball's out and effects every faucet of or society.
In many cases it results in certain actions not taken so its hard to see. In my example a new factory is not built or is built using recycled equipment which may even have higher energy requirements believed to be made up by lower capitol costs. This would and could change rapidly in a environment of rising energy costs.

The systematic risk of moving to a high EROI environment is
large and unknown.

A similar phenomenon is a wage-price spiral. It wouldn't surprise me a bit if you never see CTL/oil sands/shale as economically satisfactory substitutes.

Correct and high commodity prices tend to feed inflation.
The problem is not matter how I model it higher EROI/inflations leads to a downward spiral of positive feedback loops.

I'm beginning to grasp how the Roman Empire fell after so many years. We tend to focus on the big events but the reality is that expansion stopped the economy quit growing since it was the war machine and settlement/trade that drove the economy then EROI dropped. Then the feedback loops strengthen and you collapse.

Note that this is the type of economy people envision as our savior after oil since it was based primarily on renewable energy.

You can look at China which generally can be considered a large closed economy it followed a boom/bust cycle.

This says that renewable sources are not a solution.

I think we need to do a lot more thinking about our future.

Memmel, I think it says that all energy sources with low EROi are no solution, and only look to be as long as externalities are ignored. Something we're every good at.

In our present state, there seems to be a connection between EROI and capital costs that remains a bit ill-defined, but it has to be there, even though in the end energy can only be correctly priced in energy cost.

I have also thought about the connection between low EROI and capitol costs. The simple example I use is that if energy is expensive you actually spend more on capitol investment to lower long term energy costs.

The example is buildings from the middle ages and earlier still standing in Europe. It worth it to build really well once. So to me the connection is that you quickly move towards a society of thrift or more correctly well spent money.

A throw away society like ours would burn itself up quickly in a low EROI environment. In a sense its a bit strange that you have to start looking back 500 years and earlier into history to try and understand how our ancestors lived and often thrived at the energy levels that existed at the time.

So I think you can see capitol cost rising quite a bit from todays levels since your building to last.

Hi memmel,

re: "You can look at China which generally can be considered a large closed economy it followed a boom/bust cycle.

This says that renewable sources are not a solution."

If you have a chance, could you possibly expand on this a bit more? (What time period, how do you define "closed" and "large", what about the role of leadership?, how do you see the boom/bust cycle?) (Or any other way you might find to explain a little more.)

Thanks.

Time period about 5,000 years :)

No China is physically isolated by mountains and deserts and to the north Siberia. So it has real constraints on how far it could expand. If you read the history China rose and fell many times in wealth. The same with Eygpt and India all three can be considered reasonable isolated civilizations. The thesis holds for all three. China and India are much larger and more diverse than Eygpt so they better represent a region less impacted by regional weather patterns. India never really unified like China did so constant warfare had a bigger effect. Overall China pre 1800 is I think the best example of a long lasting advanced civilization built on low EROI.

China went through numerous dynasties and periods of warfare and peace and growth through its long history. If you read the trigging event for warfare was increasingly heavy taxes in a lot of the cases. Wealth would concentrate at the center and excess consumption would lead to a increase in taxes which eventually lead to revolt. The treasury would be drained a new Emperor installed and the cycle starts again.

The problem is the rich tend to get richer and in a fixed EROI society this eventually leads to revolt and conditions become unbearable.

None of our ancestors managed to convert this incremental yearly wealth into long term wealth for all the people.
Not that this could not have happened but the tendency tends to inexorably lead to the creation of a wasteful and inefficient ruling class that at some point collapsed under its own weight. This points to the real need for socialism like concepts in the face of low EROI. You can look at Israeli Kibbutz's for a example of socialism done well or even farmers co-ops in the US. It does not have to have negative connotations. I'm not advocating socialism but the facts seem to indicate that it could help dissipate the wealth away from the central elite which is whats critical.

Notice the only reason we have escaped this fate so far is that oil/coal extraction has continuously pumped the economy so even though we too have seen the rich get richer enough money is flowing in in the form of oil and product made from and with it that we don't collapse.

Since we have already primed the pump so to speak by having a wealth concentrated about as much as possible now before we move to a low EROI society my thesis points to a rapid collapse once the prop of oil is removed. Lets hope we have mitigating factors that offset 5,000 years of history I'm not exactly confident. I guess you could say that regardless of EROI or resources mans greed is infinite so without a basically infinite energy source collapse must happen since the wealthy cannot stop accumulating wealth.

Just like the black holes at the centers of galaxies have a effect on the evolution of the galaxy far greater than their size so does the infinite greed of our small ruling class effect all the people in the world.

To be honest I'd rather be one of the elite near the middle of a cycle so I'm not some sort of anti-rich. I think I'd make a great super rich person given the chance :) This does not change the facts.

Oh come off it. Everyone is doing the doomster cheerleading on this but CTL is profitable today, and will continue to be profitable while oil is over $40/bbl. We see companies making tentative moves towards CTL but we dont see a big rush because:
1. The capital is very expensive and people still fear a price crash.

2. Oil still isn't expensive enough that you cant make more money somewhere besides CTL. The opportunity cost is still too high. People would rather stick it in gas fields, conventional oil, even the tar sands.

But big CTL projects are being built now where they would never have been considered a decade ago. As people become more comfortable with a price floor well above 40-50 dollars per barrel, we'll see more of a funds commited towards CTL, GTL, tar sands and the rest.

Dez: Since you seem to know, when will people become "comfortable" that oil will stay above $40? When it breaks $100, $200, $300? Just wondering.

Its not a matter of price, but a matter of time. Allready large CTL projects are being commissioned.

China plans to double fuel ethanol consumption to 10 million metric tons in the 10 years to 2020, China Agri-Industries Holdings Ltd, the nation's largest rice producer, said in February.

Just last week, from China Daily:

China will this year invest more in biomass ethanol projects over maize-based ones because of a lack of grain.

"The current maize-ethanol production capacity has far surpassed what the corn output can provide as an important grain resource," Du Ying, vice-minister of National Development and Reform Commission, said.

"We are researching all kinds of biomass energy options, and others include sorghum ethanol and coal diesel oil projects," Yang Xiongnian, deputy director of science and technology, education and rural environment department of the ministry told China Daily.

"But establishing new maize ethanol projects should be temporarily stopped."

Regarding the article Study: Coal industry faces bleak future, the co-chairs of the MIT study, John Deutch and Ernest Moniz, have a long op-ed piece in today's Wall Street Journal:

A Future for Fossil Fuel (paid subscription required)

The essay argues for putting a price on CO2 emissions (either tax or cap and trade), which will 1) reduce demand for electricity, 2) provide incentives for nuclear and renewable fuels, and 3) make technology to reduce CO2 emissions more economic. It also discusses technologies for carbon sequestration, e.g. Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC), oxygen-fired supercritical pulverized coal combustion, and fluidized bed combustion. The authors then say "neither government nor industry will make the required level of technology investment -- so long as the current administration does not adopt serious carbon reduction policies in a timely fashion."

This piece takes up over half a page in the two-page op-ed spread, and is the lead guest opinion piece today. It is significant, in my opinion, that the WSJ has prominently published an opinion piece that does not dismiss global warming (don't count on the unsigned editorials to support this position anytime soon, however), but accepts it as scientific consensus and then goes on to discuss solutions.

If you thought that was amazing, have you seen this?

Kudos to Fox News

Shaybah, Deep in the Rub al-Khali

From the link above, Saudi Aramco's Shaybah expansion breaks ground.

The program marks the expansion of an oil field that is among the most remote in Saudi Arabia, about 900 kilometers from Dhahran in the Rub' al-Khali. Those who have been there agree that the location, topography and climate make the area both challenging and interesting.
Salt flats, called sabkhas, of about two square kilometers each are interspersed among sand dunes up to 200 meters high. In summer, temperatures can reach 52 degrees centigrade, or 125 degrees Fahrenheit.

One of my contacts in Saudi Arabia has told me about this. He has flown into the sabkha where the Shaybah GOSP is located several times. He was simply amazed that such a place could exist. That is, a clear flat area amongst 200 meter high dunes. That is not surprising, what gets me, and him, is that these clearings are permanent! That is, the dunes never overrun them. The dunes grow and wane on the very edge of the sabkah but they never invade the clearing. I still don’t understand it, but I am sure if I researched it I could find the explination.
http://www.soton.ac.uk/~imw/sabkha.htm

But the dunes, many 200 meters high, completely surround the sabkah. Piping the injection seawater in, and the oil out is a major operation and an ongoing task to keep the pipelines in operation. It is a very, very expensive ongoing operation.

Strange that they would go to all this trouble and expense when they have an almost unlimited supply of oil available without having to battle dunes with pipelines.

Ron Patterson

Are Qatif, Haradh III and Shaybah all Light or Extra Light fields?

If so, it looks to be the case that Saudi is going after its premium-priced export grades first.

If I recall correctly, simple refineries (those that refine light sweet crudes) are potentially undersupplied with product, whereas complex refineries (which process heavy sour grades) are themselves in short supply.

It would make sense for Saudi to first look to develop projects for which there is more than ample demand (light crudes) whilst waiting for extensions and new build complex refineries to add to processing capacity for heavy and/or sour grades.

I think this imbalance of Saudi supply versus refinery demand could be one of the reasons that they did not export as much as maybe could have been expected during last summer's price rise. It might also lead to the suspicion that Saudi is peaking not in all crude, but in Light and Extra Light grades....

Just throwing that out there as a discussion point... I am merely speculating, but my logic makes sense to me at least.

Haradh is medium light, 32 degrees API, but very sour, 2.15% sulfur content by weight. Qatif, according to Simmons, is light but extremely sour. Shaybah is light but I haven't heard the sulfur content.

Qatif has a very serious hydrogen sulfide problem. It is located in a highly populated area with only 15% of the reservoir jutting into the Persion Gulf. Aramco officials fear a leak of hydrogen sulfide gas, (sour gas), could kill hundreds in the area. Saudi is going to great expense to try to avoid any such disaster on Qatif's platforms. Workers must carry gas masks at all times. Hydrogen sulfice also causes extensive corrosion problems in the popelines.

From 1951 through 1966 production at Qatif fluctuated between 15,000 and 40,000 barrels per day. In 1979 production at Qatif reached its highest ever, 150,000 barrels per day. By 1982 production at Qatif had fallen to 40,000 barrels per day, despite the fact that Saudi Arabia was straining to keep its total oil production at all time high levels. (Simmons, page 216)

I think it will be a miracle if Qatif ever produces the 500,000 barrels per day that Aramco says it will.

Ron Patterson

Stuart Staniford posted a chart the other day suggesting Qatif has been producing at around 700 kbpd since about mid-2005. (http://www.theoildrum.com/files/ksa_field_breakdown.png)

Notwithstanding, it still appears that Saudi is looking to bring on production of Medium to Extra Light (today's article says Shaybah is Extra Light) crudes in its recent mega-projects.

Is this due to refinery demand, price, availability or ease of production in Saudi, etc? And does it suggest that Saudi is facing a depletion problem in Medium/Light grades rather than across the entire spectrum? IE they may have an abundance of Heavy reserves, but not enough global capacity to refine them?

I know, I read that. 500,000 bp/d is supposed to come from Qatif and another 300,000 bp/d from Abu Sa'fah.
http://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/projects/qatif/

I don't think this level of production was ever realized however. And if it was, it was only for a short spell. If you inject a million barrels of water, close to that amount must come out. But such production can only be maintained for only a short time. Qatif has proven, in the past, to be mostly depleted. Injecting more water will not put more oil in the ground. It can increase production but only for a short time.

Ron Patterson

Fair enough.

What about my main question? Is it possible, or even likely, that we are seeing Saudi concentrate on trying to counter depletion-related production declines in Medium to Extra Light grades whilst at the same time having potentially substantial reserves of Heavy grades for which demand is currently constrained by a global shortage of complex refining capacity?

Good theory but in practice it does not hold up. There is always a market for their oil, no matter how heavy or how sour. Every month the ratio of heavy oil to light rises just a little as we are well past "peak light oil." When this happens the discount price widens until the demand for heavy oil matches the supply of heavy oil.

But nevertheless you make the exact same argument that OPEC made last year:

Anyone who has oil of less than 30 API can't find buyers.
http://www.oxfordenergy.org/pdfs/comment_0606-3.pdf

However as the article above points out, not everyone is buying that argument. Also the world's ability to refine heavy sour crude is changing rapidly as the industry recognizes the trend and changes refining capacity to match it.

Valero finds itself in this enviable position because it was "so quick to recognize the [heavy, sour crude] trend—well before the rest of the market,"
http://www.computerworld.com/databasetopics/businessintelligence/story/0...

Bottom line, Saudi Arabia can sell all the heavy sour crude it can produce, just like everyone else in the world. All they must do is discount it to the level of the world market price for that API.

Ron Patterson

Thanks Ron. The Oxford Energy document is very interesting. I quote from that: "heavy crude oils.. have a low share of light hydrocarbons and require much more complex refining process than distillation (such as coking and cracking) to produce similar proportions of the more valuable petroleum products".

The Al-Naimi statement "nobody wants heavy oil, there are no refineries that handle heavy oil" was plainly incorrect. However, in an environment where both WTI/Brent prices and OECD stocks were at all time highs, the only politically acceptable way for OPEC to cut back production was through raising the price on Heavy grades to a price that made them unattractive to simple refiners.

This was due to massive discounting (to crude) in prices for residual fuel oil, asphalt, etc. The fuel oil discounts were driven, I believe, in large part by the pricing of NG at low levels due to a large storage carry-through from the warm 2005/06 winter and to the lack of hurricane activity in summer 2006.

The Oxford Energy pdf explains the situation far better than I have managed in my summary above. However they do not make the link between the huge discounts on fuel oil that prevailed last summer (if I recall, fuel oils traded at $25/barrel under WTI) and the price of NG, which was cheaper still, thus signifcantly cutting power station demand for fuel oil.

Since the fuel oil cut from Heavy crude is higher for simple refineries than for complex refineries, I would guess (and it's only a guess) that demand was cut for Heavy crude as simple refiners would have incurred a net loss on product sales.