DrumBeat: March 17, 2007
Posted by Leanan on March 17, 2007 - 9:16am
Topic: Miscellaneous
The majority of Paul Roberts' presentation at Washington State University's All Extension Conference addressed America's role in responding to the world's energy crisis, but he acknowledged something more important than fueling cars or industry."All these other things we are trying to hold onto are secondary," he said. "If we lose food security, we have lost the whole game."
KNOC, Other South Korean Companies to Jointly Develop Canada Oil Sands
State-run Korea National Oil Corp. said Friday it has signed an initial agreement with 13 other South Korean companies to jointly develop blocks in Canada's oil sands.The companies will seek opportunities to secure other downstream projects such as building oil refining facilities and pipelines, KNOC said in a statement.
Gazprom tours Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar
A Gazprom delegation recently toured Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Qatar to discuss the progress and prospects to develop joint projects.
A solution to fuel shortage: Consume less
I'm glad President Bush recognizes that Americans must do something about our "addiction to oil" and is gung-ho about the prospect of ethanol.I just hope those biofuel fumes aren't blinding him.
Gas guzzling must go before biofuels come in
"We've got to stop the addiction from growing," said Peter Tertzakian, author of the book "A Thousand Barrels."Biofuels are not a miracle solution to tight fuel supply issues, he said.
"Are they going to completely replace or even make a meaningful dent in the overall consumption of gasoline? I would say not any time soon, that's for sure."
Alternative energy needs to focus on waste recycling
The giddy-eyed proponents of alternative energy bio fuels derived from agricultural commodities received a bit of a wake up call recently when prices of almost all major raw materials such as corn, oil palm, sugarcane, wheat, soya, peanuts and even cassava shot up sharply causing widespread jitters.
Oil Workers Disappear in Northeast Colombia
Four oil company technicians working on a project in northeastern Colombia have been missing for two days, Caracol Radio reported Wednesday....The Gibraltar project is operating in a part of the territory of the U'wa Indian tribe, whose members oppose petroleum exploration and exploitation because they believe that crude oil is the blood of the Earth.
French Hostage Released in Southeastern Nigeria
A Frenchman kidnapped in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta last month was released on Friday, reports reaching Lagos said.
Canada greenhouse gas 'violators' would pay under Liberal plan
Polluters releasing more than their share of the so-called greenhouse gases responsible for global warming would be slapped with fines under a plan unveiled Friday by opposition Liberals.
Russia: Pipeline Deal Raises Energy Dependence Concerns
Russia, Greece, and Bulgaria have signed a long-awaited deal to build a trans-Balkan pipeline that will boost oil supplies to Western markets.The pipeline will ship Russian oil from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, avoiding the overcrowded Bosphorus Strait.
But there are fears the project will increase Europe’s reliance on Russian energy supplies.
China's Hu Hopes Row with Japan Over Gas Field is Resolved Soon
Chinese President Hu Jintao, in a meeting with Japanese lawmakers, expressed hope Friday for an early resolution of a dispute with Japan over gas exploration rights in the East China Sea, Japanese officials said.
China's Wen hedges on climate change response
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on Friday promised a national plan to address climate change but avoided offering emissions caps, speaking after a parliament session where global warming barely scraped on to the agenda.
Easy Solutions to Energy Problems
How do we assure ourselves of a reliable supply of energy at a reasonable cost without doing more damage to the planet? It's actually pretty easy.What's truly in short supply is not energy, but political will.
Analysts: $3 gasoline unlikely in summer
Elementary school principal Randy Busscher of Holland, Mich. is braced for gasoline prices of $3 a gallon or more by summer break. Analysts say Busscher and other U.S. motorists may be more worried than necessary, however. Absent a major Gulf Coast hurricane, unexpected international strife or a wave of refinery woes, average U.S. gasoline prices are not expected to rise to the $3-a-gallon psychological threshold this summer — a good sign as well for the broader economy, which is under pressure from a weakening housing market.
So why can't the West Coast catch a break with gas prices?For Oregon, it may be the source of the crude oil refined for Oregonians' gasoline: the north slope of Alaska.
Imperial Oil Nanticoke Refinery Back To Full Production
A month after a massive blaze forced the shutdown of Imperial Oil's Nanticoke refinery and caused gas shortages and price hikes across the GTA, the facility is fully operational once again.
New US view on climate change to impact Asia
That rapidly growing economies such as China and India were not obligated to take similar steps toward emissions curbs under the Tokyo Protocol, only served to allow the U.S. and others to ignore the agreement.
Regulator's New Focus on Emissions Rankles Offshore Energy
The Minerals Management Service is exploring whether to increase the scope of its regulation of greenhouse gas emissions in the oil and gas industry, a move that has producers worried their actions could be linked to global warming.
The business case for local power gets stronger as the cost of oil or natural gas rises. At the same time the environmental case for renewable energy has gained support from public concern about global warming and the role oil, gas and coal-fired generation may play in adding to the greenhouse effect.
Harvesting energy from the sun
Though India has an enormous renewable energy potential, the current installed capacity of around 8100-MW derived from renewable energy sources including sun, wind and biomass constitute about 7% of the total installed power generation capacity in the country, even though India is one of the pioneers in utilizing a part of its huge reserve of renewable energy sources.
Last week, Energy (DOE) Secretary Samuel W. Bodman announced the selection of 13 joint R&D projects with various partners in the solar industry, for a total commitment of $168 million through 2009.
Another fireplace firm extinguishes its flame
Another stress on the industry was a nearly yearlong shortage of fuel for pellet-burning stoves, says Glenn Strom, sales manager for Custom Fireside on Auburn Boulevard.
Mexican national oil monopoly in crisis on 69th anniversary of expropriation
Despite steady drops in production and myriad threats to the company's long-term stability, high oil prices pushed Pemex's sales revenue in 2006 to a record 1 trillion pesos (US$98 billion; €74.1 billion) — 10 percent more than 2005.If those revenues were significantly threatened — by suddenly falling oil prices, drastic production drops or problems in the troubled refining sector — Congress could be compelled to take action next fall when the new budget is drafted, Shields said.
In the meantime, "if the money's coming in, people are not going to be too worried and they're not going to make changes.
Peak Oil Passnotes: Return to the OPEC Corral
It was that time of year again when Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) like to get together and convince us they are in control of the oil markets. But they are not.
Occasionally I run into someone who has heard about Peak Oil, but doesn't think it will matter much. Usually they are convinced that the peak is at least 30 years off. Or that we have copious amounts of alternative sources of energy (tar sands, oil shale, methane hydrates, etc.) that we can tap into as soon as the market signals. They may have read somewhere that people have been warning about the depletion of oil ever since it was first discovered. Or they may dismiss Peak Oil as the rantings of a doomsday cult, much like the Y2K prophesies of societal collapse.
Energy efficiency and economic growth?
A hopeful Friday note: a significant downloadable report (PDF) from the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology. It was just brought to my attention, but it's from 2004. Its message bears repeating: energy efficiency/technologies have the potential to dramatically reduce energy use while supporting economic growth.
Green Energy Enthusiasts Are Also Betting on Fossil Fuels
For all the boasting in the region about investing in clean technologies, there have also been a smaller number of bets in companies set up to promote the development of fossil fuels — the source of many of the problems their other investments are meant to fix.
Students get a glimpse of future without oil
Local high school students are on the road to breaking the oil addiction they’re inheriting from their parents’ generation.
There are two new presentations on Matt Simmon's page: "Sunrise In Coal Fields: Coal’s Role In A Peak Oil World" and "Is The World’s Energy Supply Sustainable? Is America's? Is The Rocky Mountain's?"
Movie Review: How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
...Cuba has not produced anything nearly resembling adequate food supplies. As an October 2006 WaPo article makes clear, shortages of food remain widespread, leading to a thriving black market. This suggests that while Cuba's sustainable ag practices have averted widespread famine, fundamental problems remain.
A peak oil comedian? One-man humor show tackles serious issues
"It's a comedy show but it has a lot to say," [Richard] Brenne said on Friday. "Comedy and humor is the hook to get people to discuss serious issues."The talk will center on global warming and peak oil, but will touch on various international issues that the U.S. is involved in.
Peak Oil Task Force recommends Portland cut fossil fuel use
The Portland Peak Oil Task Force, a twelve member citizen committee appointed by Portland's City Council in May 2006, today delivered a strongly worded report advising that the City accelerate efforts to curb the use of oil and natural gas
Study: Warming Causing Decline in Global Crop Production
Over a span of two decades, warming temperatures have caused annual losses of roughly $5 billion for major food crops, according to a new study by researchers at the Carnegie Institution and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.
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Happy St. Patrick's Day! The Annual International ASPO Conference is in Ireland this year. |
I have a question for the doomers on this site.
I'm at a point where I'm young enough and have enough financial means that I could make preparations such buying solar photovoltaic panels and a farm and I could learn the appropriate skills, yet part of me just won't take this leap. Part of it is that I'm just not convinced yet that we'll necessarily have a huge die-off as opposed to a slow economic and population contraction, but there's also a part of me that thinks if we do have a catastrophic die-off, I'm not sure I want to be one of the ones that survive.
If the doomers are right:
-Many if not most of the people I care about will die.
-I will need to work my a-s off for a subsistence existence.
-I'll need to be willing to shoot and kill those who were less prepared and try to steal my food, solar panels, etc.
-Many of the things I care about like art, literature, good food, education will cease to exist in a way that is meaningful to me.
So my question is, why would I want to survive if this is what life on earth will be like? I think I shall prefer to die with the unprepared.
You'll enjoy this article:
I Cannot Yet Skin A Deer
Are you prepared for the Big Collapse? Peak Oil? Rural life? Can you pickle meat and eat bark?
Well Pick up a Talking Heads CD.
They wrote a song for you.
Nothing But Flowers
Here we stand, Like an Adam and an Eve
Waterfalls, The Garden of Eden
Two fools in love, So beautiful and strong
The birds in the trees, Are smiling upon them
From the age of the dinosaurs, Cars have run on gasoline
Where, where have they gone?, Now, it's nothing but flowers
There was a factory, Now there are mountains and rivers
you got it, you got it, We caught a rattlesnake
Now we got something for dinner, we got it, we got it
There was a shopping mall, Now it's all covered with flowers
you've got it, you've got it
If this is paradise, I wish I had a lawnmower
you've got it, you've got it
Years ago, I was an angry young man
I'd pretend, That I was a billboard
Standing tall, By the side of the road
I fell in love, With a beautiful highway
This used to be real estate, Now it's only fields and trees
Where, where is the town, Now, it's nothing but flowers
The highways and cars, Were sacrificed for agriculture
I thought that we'd start over, But I guess I was wrong
Once there were parking lots, Now it's a peaceful oasis
you got it, you got it, This was a Pizza Hut
Now it's all covered with daisies, you got it, you got it
I miss the honky tonks, Dairy Queens, and 7-Elevens
you got it, you got it, And as things fell apart
Nobody paid much attention, you got it, you got it
I dream of cherry pies,Candy bars, and chocolate chip cookies
you got it, you got it
We used to microwave, Now we just eat nuts and berries
you got it, you got it
This was a discount store,Now it's turned into a cornfield
you got it, you got it
Don't leave me stranded here, I can't get used to this lifestyle
I predict many, many will chose this alternative. Many will take a left turn off that bridge.
Everyone will chose their own way to... er... "Adjust" (or not) to the new reality.
John
It's a pity that they'll also be filled with toxins and pharmaceuticals from modern life when they decide to give up... they would have made great sources of protein for those who choose to try to survive.
Seriously though, it is impossible to know how much a complex system as our modern world will react to the decrease in energy inputs that runs the show. If we want to look at movies for some possibilities, all three Mad Max movies showed different shades of a post-collapse civilization. There were shops and tourists in Road Warrior, pretty much all chaos in Thunderdome. Both were set in a time that appeared to be past some sort of collapse point.
If we don't end up with some technology miracle, my guess is things will slowly get more and more uncomfortable for a while, eventually reaching a snapping point when all hell breaks loose, and after a relatively short period (perhaps a decade), the survivors will be fatigued and try to settle into the new realities of life, building a civilization that isn't as easy as our current one [is for industrial nations] but much better than Thunderdome.
This is provided that no one decides to release the demons of NBC weapons which really could screw things up for centuries without doing much good for those who used them. If we can avoid that, it may be that current third world type cultures, especially the most primative ones, end up fareing the best.
"it may be that current third world type cultures, especially the most primative ones, end up fareing the best."
I recall reading somewhere one time, a rather shocking assertion that went "the meek shall inherit the earth."
...but not the mineral rights.
I think you mean in Mad Max there were shops/tourists and in the Road Warrior all was chaos. In Beyond Thunderdome, there was Bartertown, a first faltering step toward reestablishing civilization, at least until Max came and fixed that. ;-)
What a great song. There's a recent cover version by Gaetano Veloso you would like. On CD "A Foreign Sound"
Interesting perspective. Don't get me wrong, my interest in PO started out as a distaste for the modern american suburban, hyperconsumption culture. I grew up as a cul-de-sac imprisoned kid in suburban Columbus, OH.
I live in a small community of 15000 which I think is more sustainable than most PO.
I live on 1/2 my income.
I walk to work.
My 14 year old bike is in perfect working condition.
I'll be debt free at the end of the year (barring TEOTWAWKI before then) with only student loans left.
I buy as much as I can from the local farmer's market.
I average 1000 miles/ year on my truck.
My hope is that we can slowly transition to a more sustainable society that looks more like the 19th century than the 20th or 12th.
That was my hope too. But then I started thinking (practically) about the effect of positive feedback loops:
Falling energy production due to depletion -> economic fall -> social chaos -> war and terrorism -> further disruptions in energy supply
Unfortnately you're small community, assumming it has a shot of being sustainable, will simply fall prey to the "law of attraction" which means it will attract people from less well-off areas. That is unless it is extremely geographically isolated.
All a "slow return" does is give radical ideologies a chance to spread/germinate. Witness America's slow-motion collpase the last 35 years and how it has coincided with the spread of radical militant Christianty. I doubt that to be a coincidence.
I Cannot Yet Skin A Deer
An ex-poacher suggested using the engine hoist to 'peel' the skin offa your deer.
Cut 'round the neck skin and pull down 6-12 inches of skin.
Place 3/4 inch nut on fur side and trap nut so you can create a bulge on the flesh side.
wrap robe 'bout the budge
Anchor rope to base of engine hoist
Jack up hoist and the deer peels right outta its skin.
You get a mostly hairless corpse in bout 15 mins.
I think a far better living in post PO would be learning how to grow food organically. Food will be wealth in a post-peak society and if you're an expert organic gardener you'll be the goose that lays the golden eggs that what's left of society will want to protect from being eaten.
Well, you will always have that option later. That may not be the case for other things, like buying solar panels now. (And FWIW...I think you'd find that life is still worth living without the kind of art, literature, food, and education you now enjoy. Most of the world lives quite happily without them. Heck, most of the world is happier than we are, though they have a lot less.)
IMO, the type of "doomer" preparations you describe are more suited for the "slow squeeze" scenario. The "Grand Depression" scenario. They won't be much help in a Mad Max or global warming catastrophe-type scenario.
And preparations may give you the ability to help the friends and family you fear losing. During the Great Depression, many people fled the cities to live with relatives who owned farms. While the farmers didn't have a lot of money, they did have food and fuel.
Good points.
Of course where I live it's too cloudy for solar and not windy enough for wind, not to mention I would have to battle city council to change code (at least in the case of wind). The one option I do consider seriously is buying a farm or land. Probably not to farm it myself, but I could lease it out, or could manage land for timber without a lot of work which will probably be a good investment for the post-peak world.
Leanan, don't you live in a big city? I assume you have no garden or farm and no solar panels or wind turbines to safeguard against future collapse.
I do not live in a big city. I live just outside a very small city. It's along a rail line and a major waterway, so it might be a decent place to live in the post-carbon age.
I am a renter, so no, I don't have a garden, farm, or solar panels. I might consider acquiring them, but not now. For one thing, real estate prices have nowhere to go but down in this area.
Perhaps more importantly, I haven't decided that I want to stay here. I like the area, but I don't have deep roots here. My family is all in Hawaii. I don't particularly want to move to Hawaii. I love the place, but it's insanely expensive now, and will be completely unsustainable in the post-carbon age (never mind what will happen if sea levels rise by as much as Jim Hanson fears, or hurricanes get worse).
And yet...several generations of my family are there. If TSHTF, I may go home to be with them. Or at least move closer to the west coast, in hopes of convincing them to join me. I'm also giving serious consideration to moving to Canada.
Thanks for your perspective. About the big city thing- I think I was confusing you with the previous editor, Yankee.
Speaking of diverse opinions, I live in HI and think it will be a good place. The islands were pretty much self-sustaining until the US really took over in the 30's and 40's. Talk about getting back in touch with GAIA, the natives lived here for centuries with none of our modern conveniences.
Of course, if you live on the coast, all bets are off. But if you live in the low mountains, I think you have an excellent chance. The climate is very mild in the low mountains and requires no heat or cooling. A fan is nice, but you could manage without one. The growing climate, year round, is astounding. In the mountains, you get lots of rain since the water condenses as the air currents move up the mountains. It is also very remote, so it will be hard for many people to migrate here. If you grow your own food and minimize your need for electricity (or produce your own), it is very cheap to live here if you don't feel the need to be in a ritzy area. Property taxes are extremely low, and it's pretty easy to pick up a small but decent house on an acre of ag land for about $150-200K. And the prices are going down as the "for sale" signs linger...
But it does have some major negatives. Medical care is already a problem. I expect many people with medical problems will leave, and if you have any medical problems that require continuous medication, you may not get it here --let alone emergency care. As it is, even some routine tests require a trip to Honolulu.
The other negative is that same remoteness that is a plus. In the event of a natural disaster (hurricanes, earthquakes, volcanoes, etc), HI will possibly be ignored by the government and will be left to totally fend for itself -- just like New Orleans. It also affects medical and other supplies as mentioned above.
One of the biggest negatives I see in the early years, assuming the crash is as bad as I think it might be, will be the "cockaroaches." When you get away from the resorts, you find that a lot of bums live here (over 10+ of the population is on govt assistance and many of them are just bums, not struggling families). Most of them just hang out and cause problems. I expect that they will be a HUGE problem and that anyone who tries to survive here should be ready to deal with theft and violence. These people have nothing to lose, and the problem is even worse than San Francisco. They are camped out everywhere in makeshift shelters and will even inhabit your house if you aren't there. Builders can't leave anything unsecured--you truly can't turn your back on your property for a moment. Lately, they've been stealing catchment tanks. If you live on catchment, it's a big problem to come home and find out you have NO water.
HI could also end up being a military target for those that hate us. But then, militarily, HI is strategic...it's one of the few outposts in the middle of the Pacific between the continents. So that could mean most of the islands would become a base. Several islands are already essentially military enclaves. That could mean that HI would continue to receive fuel and medicine AHEAD of other areas. If this happens, all bets are off on everything related to HI.
Another interesting thing is electricity where I live on the Big Island. We have an interesting mix of wind, geothermal (volcanoes), fuel oil, etc. In 2006, 23% of the Big Island's electricity came from renewable sources. I think this is one of the highest in the nation --- if not the highest. They are about to bring another wind farm on board to supply another 20.4MW of renewable energy. There is also a lot of work going on regarding the use of tides and waves to generate electricity.
Bear in mind that I'm not talking about HI as a whole, I'm talking about one island in particular. Please, do not all come here. The other reason I came here is that if I'm going to die, it might as well be in paradise. It's stunningly beautiful here in the rain forest--why die in a hellhole???
Not really. Food was imported. There's a reason why Hawaii eats more Spam per capita than any other place in the world.
My family is also on the Big Island. What you see there now (especially on the Kona side) is nothing like it originally looked like. Clearing the trees for farming caused terrible erosion problems. There used to be rivers, but without the trees, the rivers dried up (though there are flooding problems now when it rains heavily).
King Kamehameha was from the Big Island. It's not a coincidence. Kamehameha conquered the other islands for Malthusian reasons: there was no longer enough fertile soil to support the population. The population back then was less than half the current population of the Big Island.
I don't live on the Kona side and consider it a total death trap. The traffic is horrible, there isn't any soil as you say, and there isn't enough water. Many folks who live in Kona hate my side of the island because of the constant rain. Fine by me.
I know a lot of retirees in my area that will leave when TSHTF. Many people only stay here because it's easy to fly back and forth, when that is no longer easy, they will leave. In fact, some are starting to leave now because the real estate bubble is popping. They didn't save enough to live here without their house as an ATM.
The history museums say that the islands were mostly self-sustaining before the US "took over," so I disagree with that. We brought the spam at that time.
Kona used to be Sticksville. I'm really astonished at how the population has grown. There was only one traffic light in town when I learned to drive.
But I don't think it's realistic to expect the residents of Kona to stay out of Hilo if things get bad.
And I don't think enough people will leave the island to bring the population down to pre-contact levels.
You might find this article of interest. It's about a study of soils on the Big Island, and what that revealed about agriculture. Very clever, really. They compared samples of open ground with samples of earth from under ancient walls, to see how exhausted the ancient fields were.
That is interesting reading.
I have heard lots of folks say they will leave if TSHTF, so it remains to be seen seen what will really happen. If tourism crashes because of peak oil, the economy here will totally crash because it is mostly tourism. That in itself might change a bunch of minds. Since we are old and retired, it's different for us. If we get 10 semi-decent years here, we'll be happy to die here. We already lost several neighbors who went back to the continent. Several went back for medical reasons, a few others took their real estate profits and moved to cheap places in Ohio/Michigan, and a few others left after deciding it was too far from family and friends. We don't have a lot of ties to the mainland, so unless forced, we won't go back.
We came here knowing it would get hard, but couldn't stand CA anymore. Speaking of CA, Kona reminds me of San Francisco all crammed into the little side of a mountain. The first time we came here, Kona was a nice little quiet town with few tourists and we loved it. Those days are long gone -- the transition has been complete. I grew up all over CA, and I can no longer imagine living out peak oil there as it has become an overall awful place. The only nice places are way too expensive, and you can't just pitch a tent. We lived in OR for 12 years and loved OR. But the winters are cold and nasty, and if fuel will be at a premium, I don't want to be retired there. We don't want to have to worry about growing food and chopping wood at our age. We were also just plain tired of the miserable winters with the ice storms and freezing spells, so we left OR. I lived in AK for 2 years and it was just stunning. But there you have long, cold, DARK winters that are really depressing for some people.
What I do know is that we planted a lot fruit trees in the past year, and many are already producing. These were the little 5-gallon trees, not the ones that were almost ready to produce. My husband started a bunch of papayas from seed, and we had papayas within 6 months. It was/is astounding. But then we live in the rain forest, not on the dry side, in a rather remote area. At this point tractors and other heavy equipment are still available, and we have taken major advantage, while we can, and hired them numerous times to help with digging holes and removing dead trees.
Community is actually forming with like-minded folks, and we have several in our group that have their "master-gardener" rating from the University of Hilo, and the group has also been working with the local government to try and prepare for peak oil. We are mostly retired and ages run from about 50 up to 72. Of course, most local politicians are still in denial about peak oil. But we love it here and plan to die here, the biggest question being when.
PM me please:
matt@lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
This appears to be a a perfect breed for small scale livestock raising.
http://babydollsouthdowns.com/history.htm
I love the baby dolls! They are saving my county's ass (or they should be if people were smart):
http://tinyurl.com/3xxh9r
How did a sheep so ugly get a name of baby doll?
Look at the pictures from my post. The ones in the video did not appear to be true babydolls.
My young niece in CT is a major breeder of these things. She makes pots of money selling the lambs...
Just out of curiosity, I assume you hve discussed peak oil with your family. What do they plan on doing?
My family is mostly in denial.
Bummer.
I think my parents are around your age. They aren't that concerned about the future, and I guess I can't really blame them.
Weirdly, it was my dad who taught me about Malthus, and told me that oil wouldn't last forever. (He's a UH agronomist, and chose the field because of concern about Malthus' Doom.) But now...he admits oil is a limited resource, and he's the one who always told me alternative energy wouldn't be enough to replace it. But now he thinks the worst that will happen is that he'll have to trade in his Explorer for a Prius.
Humans are fascinating. They probably feel somewhat like I do...that they've had a pretty good life and this is as good a place as any to bite the dust. Besides, Pele could get us long before peak oil does. She rumbles....
same here.
my mother thinks it's just going to be 70's redux and over with just as fast..
Oahu is toast but the Big Island might be okay.
http://www.ki4u.com/nuclearsurvival/states/hi.htm
Most of the fallout will fall on the Hilo side, at least according to Jay.
Hi Chimp,
So, is Jay on the other side?